y4x.com: BTC awarded on first block that has a bid

[Nite69]

Bidders don't actually have an average of 10 minutes to make a larger bid.  Let's say you make a 0.1 bid, a block could be created at any moment and your 0.1 bid could be put into it.  The first moment a block is created with a transaction to the bid address the results are frozen in time. 

Yes, but the weird theory behind 'finding the block' says that any given moment, the expected time to next block is on average 10 minutes.

That is, regardless of the time passed after the last found block. The actual time could be 1 second or 1hour, but in the average, it is 10 minutes.

But you should market your site a bit more aggressively, so you dont' just give away bitcoins.. I'll spread the word (well, I'm not gonna win bitcoins so more in the future, but a good idea should be shared..)

Also, it should be verified, if there is a possibility that the prize goes to a wrong address, ie on some web wallet site's internal address. If so, bidders should be warned (actually enought information is already on the site, but just to avoid complains). I'm not sure,  if I was lucky to get the prize to correct address, or is the other address also connected to my easywallet account.

[Nite69]

People can continue to bid but their bids won't be in the first block that was created.  That's why it's important to look at blockchain.info (or whatever method you want) to track whether the block has been made yet.

So yea, the bitcoin network acts as a chaotic timer (which is what I think is really neat) but you don't have long to contribute which is why I have the auctions reveal at predetermined times twice a day: if anyone wants to play they know exactly when to show up.

Yes, that's good. Also, you could choose the times so that potential players are most likely online. Maybe late evening on US and Europe? At least today (16.00 local time,UTC-2) there were only one other player. Currently this is EASY MONEY for players.. but I guess that's the case in most sites?

I wish good luck with your site. Also, think about changing the prize from 1 BTC to some% of the bids. Maybe some minimum prize (0.1-0.5 BTC?!). Or why not make another site with different winning strategy? This is completely free suggestion, I already won 1 BTC ;-)

[BitcoinHoarder]

But can you also change the links in the main page to blockchain.info?

Can you give me some perspective on why I should change it?  Do you just prefer blockchain.info?  I don't mind changing it but I want to understand why you are asking.

But you should market your site a bit more aggressively, so you dont' just give away bitcoins.. I'll spread the word (well, I'm not gonna win bitcoins so more in the future, but a good idea should be shared..)

I don't really know how to market the site...  I set up the site an experiment in interacting with bitcoind.  Don't spread the word it will just make it harder for you to win!

Also, it should be verified, if there is a possibility that the prize goes to a wrong address, ie on some web wallet site's internal address. If so, bidders should be warned (actually enought information is already on the site, but just to avoid complains). I'm not sure,  if I was lucky to get the prize to correct address, or is the other address also connected to my easywallet account.

I don't have a great solution here: I could have people register and set a withdrawal address but that would be a barrier to people playing and ruin the simplicity of the game.  I want to solve this problem but I don't see how.  I will post a short notice on the site.

[BitcoinHoarder]

Yes, that's good. Also, you could choose the times so that potential players are most likely online. Maybe late evening on US and Europe? At least today (16.00 local time,UTC-2) there were only one other player. Currently this is EASY MONEY for players.. but I guess that's the case in most sites?

I have set times so it is consistent and people will know when to play.  It is a convenient time somewhere in the world, right?

I wish good luck with your site. Also, think about changing the prize from 1 BTC to some% of the bids. Maybe some minimum prize (0.1-0.5 BTC?!). Or why not make another site with different winning strategy? This is completely free suggestion, I already won 1 BTC ;-)

This is actually a good suggestion.  I thought about this but thought people might not understand and not play.  If I ever get a couple people playing at a time then maybe I will switch to % and that way if people want to bid big to win the pot they can.

[dooglus]

Yes, but the weird theory behind 'finding the block' says that any given moment, the expected time to next block is on average 10 minutes.

That is, regardless of the time passed after the last found block. The actual time could be 1 second or 1hour, but in the average, it is 10 minutes.

That's correct.  The expected time to the next block is 10 minutes.  Interestingly the expected time to the previous block is also 10 minutes.  So if you pick a random point in time, the expected time between the previous and next block is 20 minutes.

Weird, isn't it?

Read this question and answer, and associated comments for an in-depth discussion of it all:
  http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/3909/what-is-the-expected-time-until-the-next-block-is-found

[BitcoinHoarder]

Yes, but the weird theory behind 'finding the block' says that any given moment, the expected time to next block is on average 10 minutes.

That is, regardless of the time passed after the last found block. The actual time could be 1 second or 1hour, but in the average, it is 10 minutes.

That's correct.  The expected time to the next block is 10 minutes.  Interestingly the expected time to the previous block is also 10 minutes.  So if you pick a random point in time, the expected time between the previous and next block is 20 minutes.

Weird, isn't it?

Read this question and answer, and associated comments for an in-depth discussion of it all:
  http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/3909/what-is-the-expected-time-until-the-next-block-is-found

Fair enough .

To get us back on topic, I added a JSON datafeed: http://y4x.com/json.php

[wikiaki]

I wonder how many times the owner wins... 

[BitcoinHoarder]

I wonder how many times the owner wins... 

Legit question, the answer is zero.  By operating a fair game I believe people who win will be interested in playing again.

[wikiaki]

for me

-1

not verifiable

[BitcoinHoarder]

for me

-1

not verifiable

Fair enough.

[Yuhfhrh]

for me

-1

not verifiable

There have been multiple games where there was only 1 player (2 of them were me), so in the past he hasn't cheated.

[dooglus]

I wonder how many times the owner wins... 

Legit question, the answer is zero.  By operating a fair game I believe people who win will be interested in playing again.

There's no way you can prove that you're not playing I don't think.  Not that I don't believe you of course.

If you were to change the game such that the highest bid gets 98% of the total that made it into the first block then it wouldn't matter if you were playing or not since even if you were we wouldn't be at much of a disadvantage playing against you.  The only remaining inequality is that when our payment doesn't make it into the first block, you get to keep it, but that can be seen as your cut for running the game.

Currently you can bid 1 BTC each round and be guaranteed never to lose money.  If instead you pay out 98% of the total, you don't have such a way of guaranteeing a win, and we no longer have to trust you (other than to trust that you'll pay out following the rules of course - there's always a risk that a site operator will abscond).

[wikiaki]

good category: Gambling

-1

[BitcoinHoarder]

If you were to change the game such that the highest bid gets 98% of the total that made it into the first block then it wouldn't matter if you were playing or not since even if you were we wouldn't be at much of a disadvantage playing against you.

Help me understand... can't I just bid 1000 BTC and win every time under your scenario?  Or are you saying that it is balanced by someone else being able to bid 1000.01 and that no one knows when the block will complete?

[Nite69]

If you were to change the game such that the highest bid gets 98% of the total that made it into the first block then it wouldn't matter if you were playing or not since even if you were we wouldn't be at much of a disadvantage playing against you.

Help me understand... can't I just bid 1000 BTC and win every time under your scenario?  Or are you saying that it is balanced by someone else being able to bid 1000.01 and that no one knows when the block will complete?

Yes, you cannot be sure you win in dooglus scenario. Basically, others have allways on average 10 minutes to beat your bid. If maximum is 1 BTC, there is no point to bet more. If there is no maximum, you cannot 'steal' the pot without risking your investment.

Block complement is a lottery. Miners make milliards of guesses every second to find an answer and the chance is to find one solution in 10 minutes, in  the whole network.

[BitcoinHoarder]

If you were to change the game such that the highest bid gets 98% of the total that made it into the first block then it wouldn't matter if you were playing or not since even if you were we wouldn't be at much of a disadvantage playing against you.

Help me understand... can't I just bid 1000 BTC and win every time under your scenario?  Or are you saying that it is balanced by someone else being able to bid 1000.01 and that no one knows when the block will complete?

Yes, you cannot be sure you win in dooglus scenario. Basically, others have allways on average 10 minutes to beat your bid. If maximum is 1 BTC, there is no point to bet more. If there is no maximum, you cannot 'steal' the pot without risking your investment.

I see... well, I can do it that way.  My script already sums up all the bitcoins it would just send 98% of that as the return instead of 1.

I don't think this qualifies as "verifiable" but I like that it takes less suspicion off the operator (me).

[dooglus]

I see... well, I can do it that way.  My script already sums up all the bitcoins it would just send 98% of that as the return instead of 1.

I don't think this qualifies as "verifiable" but I like that it takes less suspicion off the operator (me).

I said 98% to give you a 2% house edge to make it worth your while.

But maybe you can pay the full 100% of all the payments that make it into the first block, and keep all the late payments as your profit.  That's probably plenty anyway and it likely going to be the later bigger payments anyway.  Paying out 100% looks so much better than paying out 98%, and makes little difference to your take...

And yes, you can't guarantee to win by putting 1000 BTC into each game because I can put 2000 into each game and take your 1000 BTC.  I guess practically speaking nobody would do that because (a) you might just run off with their 2000 BTC and (b) their 2000 BTC bet might get confirmed after someone else's 0.5 BTC bet, and so they lose it anyway.  You don't have to worry about either of those two issues, so I see what you mean.  I do think it goes some way towards removing the "hey, he can cheat easily" accusation though.

[BitcoinHoarder]

And yes, you can't guarantee to win by putting 1000 BTC into each game because I can put 2000 into each game and take your 1000 BTC.  I guess practically speaking nobody would do that because (a) you might just run off with their 2000 BTC and (b) their 2000 BTC bet might get confirmed after someone else's 0.5 BTC bet, and so they lose it anyway.  You don't have to worry about either of those two issues, so I see what you mean.  I do think it goes some way towards removing the "hey, he can cheat easily" accusation though.

Ok, here we go...

[Nite69]

You seem to have alottery ongoing. Is it a test or open to everyone?

[BitcoinHoarder]

You seem to have alottery ongoing. Is it a test or open to everyone?

Open, but now it's confirmed.  The next one is in 29 minutes.