Meanwhile in Afghanistan...

[bryant.coleman]

Pakistan is aid and comfort to the Taliban, allowing them to regroup and resupply within their borders. The Pakistani special service is also training the insurgents who then return to Afghanistan to terrorize. Until the military in Pakistan shut down the Taliban camps within Pakistan and begin to attack and defeat the Taliban within Pakistan, the insurgency will NEVER be defeated.

The Pakistanis have their own reasons for supporting the Taliban and the other rebels in Afghanistan. They have been fomenting unrest there for the past many decades, even before the Soviets started their intervention in Afghanistan. Afghanistan want to annex the Pashtun majority regions of Pakistan (especially the FATA and the NWFP) to their country, while the Pakis want to annex the South-eastern parts of Afghanistan. It is an ethnically diverse area, and the conflict will go on for many more decades.

[galdur]

Perhaps it's better to start building some huge concrete walls on the borders of Europe right now, however if the IS can destabilize Pakistan then the whole world will be in trouble. That would mean a war against Pakistan just for securing her nuclear weapons before the IS would do that.

I think it´s very real and I think that the world is in big trouble already. Problem is; most people don´t really want to hear about it especially since they´re not interested in going after the root cause of the thing. Doing so would wreak havoc with their indoctrinated goodness and fairness and tolerance towards all. Of course these are very desirable qualities that certainly should win out in the end but as of now they are weaknesses used by this enemy to his advantage.

It has always been difficult with this terrorist shit to figure out what is hype and what is real, we remember that from al-Queida (which is still very much alive and kicking BTW and even being promoted as "moderate opposition" by lunatics both sides of the Atlantic) but ISIS seems to be on a new level as that business model is concerned. And what I find especially scary is that this is being led by young people and their opposition (our leaders) well they are old men. They are dinosaurs that most of all are interested in maintaining this cozy system of exploitation of the many by the few that we see around us. And they have their hands full as it is doing that. They will not want to talk about root causes of terrorism too much or any root causes for that matter. Doing so might start to rock the boat close to home after all.

[galdur]

Obama Haunted by Graveyard of Empires

Finian CUNNINGHAM | 29.12.2015 | 00:00
 

US President Barack Obama has little to cheer about during his annual Christmas vacation – just as America’s longest-ever overseas war – in Afghanistan – flares up with no end in sight, and possibly for even more years to come.

«The war in Afghanistan follows Obama to his vacation in Hawaii», was how the Washington Post described the despondent outlook for the US-backed regime in Kabul, increasingly assailed by Taliban militants. Fourteen years after going into Afghanistan to crush the radical Islamist Taliban and «install democracy», Washington’s «nation-building» project lies in abject ruins.

A year after the US-led NATO occupation of Afghanistan was officially wound down, it is reported that American and British Special Forces are being dispatched – again – to help prevent the Western-installed regime from falling to Taliban insurgents.

Six US soldiers were killed when a Taliban suicide bomber drove his motorcycle into their patrol near the giant military base at Bagram. The base at Bagram is the heart of US military operations in Afghanistan. In recent months even this supposedly secure zone has come under rocket attacks from the Taliban. The devastating blow to a US patrol outside the base only serves to underline how fragile the situation is for the entire country.



Poignantly, the US troop deaths come at a time that Obama had promised would mark the final drawdown of military operations in the country – more than 14 years after the US invaded Afghanistan back in October 2001.

Last December, Obama announced the official end of US combat operations in Afghanistan, along with supporting British and other NATO forces. This month was supposed to see a large cohort of the remaining 9,000 US troops being withdrawn, as NATO-trained Afghan soldiers and police under the control of President Ashraf Ghani were to take over all security responsibilities.

The remaining US troops are said to be in a «non-combat role» and are there, officially, to train and advise Afghan security forces. But that official «non-combat» designation will hardly make much sense to the American families of the six soldiers killed last week.

Due to the rapidly deteriorating security situation across Afghanistan amid a surge in Taliban advances over recent months, Washington is having to postpone its troop withdrawal until 2017 and possibly beyond. That’s when Obama’s second presidential term expires.

Afghanistan’s southern province of Helmand is feared to be on the brink of Taliban military takeover, adding to gains already made by the militants in the west, north and east of the country. The beleaguered central government in Kabul propped up by Washington appears to be spinning out of control.

One Afghan provincial lawmaker quoted by the Guardian said that the entire Helmand province was «in danger of falling to the Taliban». She said: «If the British and American forces do not help… Helmand will be in danger».

Obama was first elected in 2008 partly on the promise that he would end the Afghan war, which his predecessor George Bush had started, allegedly in response to the 9/11 terror attacks on New York and Washington DC in 2001. Two administrations later, Obama’s promise looks pathetically far from being fulfilled. As with Iraq, Obama is sending troops back into the country, albeit on a much smaller scale than when the wars were officially on.

Whether officially «on» or «off», the facts on the ground are that America is very much still at war in both Afghanistan and Iraq, trying to shore up local governments that it installed but which are battling to contain the sectarian and tribal chaos that Washington unleashed by its unlawful interventions.

From a financial perspective, both wars are reckoned to have racked up $6 trillion of the total US national debt of $18-19 trillion, according to a Harvard University study. That’s a third of the US’ unsustainable debt pile, which is not only crippling the US economy, it is also attributed as a main cause of stagnation in the world economy.

But even more damaging to US global reputation is the horrendous loss of human life from wars that were illegal in the first place – and wars that are continuing with no end in sight because of Washington’s geopolitical vandalism.

Moreover, the global contamination of extremism and terrorism from groups like Al-Nusra, Ahrar ash-Shams, the so-called Islamic State and Boko Haram can all be traced to the illegal US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Whatever moral authority the United States may once have projected to the rest of the world has been squandered. The world is no longer enthrall to the post-Second World War Pax Americana; it is appalled by it.

Geographically and climatically inhospitable, Afghanistan is not called the «graveyard of empires» by historians for nothing. In centuries past, the warrior tribal people of that remote country have laid waste to the military forces of Genghis Khan, Alexander the Great and the British Empire. Russia’s decade-old war in Afghanistan (1979-1989) against Mujahideen – mobilized and weaponized by the American CIA it has to be said – is reckoned to have played a part in the demise of the Soviet Union.

Now it would appear to be America’s turn for the graveyard, with rich irony and not a little poetic justice, given how it was Washington that laid the Afghan trap for the Soviet Union – or as former US planner Zbigniew Brzezinski reputedly once said «to give the Soviets their Vietnam».



The difference is that the US has aggravated the notorious traditional resistance of Afghanistan by having introduced new strains of terrorism into the country during the 1980s to fight against the Soviet Union. British military intelligence and Saudi oil money also had a hand in stirring the terror cauldron.

Those US-backed Mujahideen fighters are the precursors of today’s Taliban, who are dragging Washington into a seemingly never-ending quagmire. And not only the Taliban but other Al-Qaeda-linked terror groups that spilled over from the Afghan terror cauldron, and who are running amok in the Middle East and in many parts of Africa.

Obama is not just being haunted by the graveyard of empires. America has dug its own grave.

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/12/29/obama-haunted-graveyard-empires.html

[galdur]

KABUL — At a ceremony inaugurating the new “Afghan Pentagon” here Monday, President Ashraf Ghani stressed the importance of building a modern military, subservient to the nation’s constitution and laws rather than to powerful individuals. He portrayed the gleaming new facility, built with U.S. funds, as the central command for that mission.

But 150 miles east, in the embattled district of Achin, news was spreading of an atrocity committed by a private pro-government militia over the weekend. After Islamic State forces captured and beheaded four of its members, Afghan officials reported, the militia retaliated by decapitating four Islamic State prisoners, later placing their heads on piles of stones along a main road.

The incident echoed the worst abuses of Afghanistan’s civil war two decades ago and raised fears that tribal strongmen, goaded by barbaric opponents, could undercut the Ghani government’s efforts to wage a professional fight against Taliban and Islamic State insurgents.

On Monday, Zahir Qadir, a tribal leader and deputy speaker of the Afghan senate, denied that the militiamen involved report to him. He has previously boasted that he has armed 200 men to fight “on the front lines” of the battle with Taliban and Islamic State forces in the province where the beheadings took place. ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/beheadings-send-a-chill-through-afghanistan/2015/12/29/9808f790-ada1-11e5-b281-43c0b56f61fa_story.html

[galdur]

Taliban Car Bomber Hits French Restaurant in Afghan Capital of Kabul
Restaurant Popular With Foreign Officials

by Jason Ditz, January 01, 2016

Adding to the growing number of strikes in the capital city of Kabul, an Afghan Taliban suicide car bomber attacked the French restaurant Le Jardin in the city’s downtown area, an eatery popular with foreign officials stationed in the capital.

There aren’t many restaurants in Kabul still considered safe for foreigners, and there’s one less today after this bombing, which set the building on fire, badly damaging it. Two people were killed in the attack, and 15 others wounded.

Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid claimed the death toll was actually higher, and that the Taliban believed “several” foreigners had been slain in the strike. The Ghani government condemned the strike, saying it had “no place in peace negotiations.”

Of course, there are no active peace negotiations in Afghanistan at any rate, with the Taliban withdrawing after the death of their founder Mullah Omar. Since then, they’ve escalated their strikes, particularly in heavily secure areas in Kabul and Kandahar.

http://news.antiwar.com/2016/01/01/taliban-car-bomber-hits-french-restaurant-in-afghan-capital-of-kabul/

[galdur]

Car Bomb Explodes Near Afghan International Airport in Kabul

10:45 04.01.2016(updated 11:25 04.01.2016) Get short URL
 
A suicide bomber detonated an explosives-laden car near a police checkpoint outside Kabul International Airport in Afghanistan, local media reported.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) —There were no immediate reports of casualties, according to Afghanistan’s Khaama Press. The blast reportedly struck as a large crowd of football fans gathered at the airport to welcome the returning Afghan football team.

A spate of terrorist attacks has hit Afghanistan over the past few days. Shooting was reported overnight near the Indian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif, in northern Afghanistan, after two gunmen tried to break into the compound.



Read more: http://sputniknews.com/world/20160104/1032652769/explosion-airport-kabul-afghanistan.html#ixzz3wGPV6c60

[galdur]

Taliban Suicide Bombing Wounds 30 Civilians in Afghan Capital
Truck Bomb Targeted Contractor Camp

by Jason Ditz, January 04, 2016

At least 30 civilians, including nine children, were wounded today when a suicide truck boimber attacked Camp Baron, a heavily guarded residential compound that houses civilian contractors near the airport in the Afghan capital city of Kabul.

The Taliban claimed credit for the bombing, which police say saw the truck detonate at the armored gates outside the complex. Most of the injuries were from flying glass from the massive explosion, or trapped when nearby buildings collapsed.

The Taliban insisted that the claim of only 30 wounded was false, and that they’d killed “dozens of foreigners” in the attack, just the latest in a growing string of strikes against secure compounds across Kabul and Kandahar.

The Taliban has seemed increasingly eager to attack such secure areas to undercut the Afghan government’s claims to have the situation in hand, showing they can attack pretty much anywhere they want at any time.

http://news.antiwar.com/2016/01/04/taliban-suicide-bombing-wounds-30-civilians-in-afghan-capital/

[xht]

U.S. Soldier Killed While Fighting Taliban in Afghanistan

KABUL, Afghanistan — An American soldier was killed and two others were wounded Tuesday in fighting at the heart of a Taliban offensive in southern Afghanistan, the United States military said.

The death took place in Marja, Helmand Province, where American Special Operations forces have been trying to help the Afghan military fend off a fierce Taliban offensive that has claimed several districts over the past few months.

The American casualties came during a push by Afghan and American soldiers to clear territory between Marja and the provincial capital of Lashkar Gah, according to Afghan military officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the press.

Later, Afghan and American officials said that an American helicopter was damaged in the area, but they differed on the details.

In Washington, American officials confirmed that a medical evacuation helicopter that had been sent to Marja to help the wounded soldiers was damaged when its rotors struck the wall of a compound there. It was unclear whether the wounded soldiers had yet been evacuated.

But one Afghan military official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief reporters, said an American troop transport helicopter went down in enemy territory because of a mechanical problem, and that the casualties came afterward. There were no further details or confirming accounts.

“We are deeply saddened by this loss,” said Brig. Gen. Wilson A. Shoffner, the spokesman for United States military forces here. “On behalf of General Campbell and all of USFOR-A, our heartfelt sympathies go out to the families and friends of those involved.” The statement referred to the American military commander, Gen. John F. Campbell, who is both head of NATO forces and United States Forces – Afghanistan, which includes Special Operations troops.

The United States and NATO pulled all combat forces from Helmand in the spring of 2014, and combat operations by the coalition were scheduled to end by Dec. 31 that year.

The mission of American forces in Afghanistan was to remain in a training and advising role, for the most part. But as the Taliban have gained ground this year, Special Operations troops have been directly involved in the fighting, particularly in Helmand, according to senior Afghan officials and Western diplomats.

Marja had been a longtime Taliban stronghold until a surge of United States Marines took it back beginning in 2010, and until recently it was relatively quiet, even as northern parts of Helmand were besieged by the Taliban. In the past month, the Taliban have increased their activities in the area despite the onset of winter weather.

The death of the soldier Tuesday was believed to be the first confirmed American fatality in southern Afghanistan since the official end of combat operations in 2014, and the first confirmed fatality of 2016.

Shortly after the announcement of the American casualties, a loud explosion was heard in central Kabul, in or near the city’s diplomatic quarter. It was the fourth bombing in the capital since New Year’s Day — including two bombings near the airport on Monday — continuing an unusually high tempo of attacks in the capital and elsewhere.

One of the blasts on Monday came from 3,000 pounds of explosives detonating near the gates of Camp Sullivan, a housing facility for American Embassy staff near the Kabul International Airport, according to a spokesman for the embassy, who did not want to be identified as a matter of official policy. He said that two Afghan civilians were killed in the explosion, but that there were no fatalities inside the camp. An unspecified number of camp personnel were wounded and evacuated for medical treatment.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/06/world/asia/american-soldier-killed-fighting-the-taliban-in-helmand.html?ref=world

[galdur]

Foreign Policy ‏@ForeignPolicy  10h10 hours ago
The Taliban now control more territory than at any time since 2001. http://atfp.co/1RnThuP

Mapped: The Taliban Surged in 2015, but ISIS Is Moving In on Its Turf

[YoonYeonghwa]

A political settlement in Afghanistan will stop IS from gaining ground. If the war continues indefinitely there is no telling how things will turn out.

ISIS doesn't give a fuck about anything. You think a political settlement will stop them.

[galdur]

A suicide car bomb struck a bus carrying employees of Afghanistan’s largest independent television broadcaster Wednesday evening, killing seven people and wounding 27, police officials said.

The blast in western Kabul’s Darulaman Road area hit a civilian bus transporting employees of Moby Group, which includes the Tolo TV news channel, the city's police chief, Abdul Rahman Rahimi, told reporters at the scene.

The Taliban, which last year named employees of Tolo and 1TV, another major private broadcaster, as legitimate targets, claimed responsibility for the bombing.....

http://www.latimes.com/world/afghanistan-pakistan/la-fg-afghanistan-media-bombing-20160120-story.html

[galdur]

Afghan Reinforcements Scramble as Taliban Advances on Helmand Capital
Taliban Forces Poised to Seize Three Key Districts Around Capital

by Jason Ditz, January 19, 2016

Continuing what started as the 2015 “spring offensive,” the Taliban is continuing to move heavily into Helmand Province, and is poised to capture the Sangin, Marjah, and Gereshk Districts of the province, which would effectively surround the capital city of Lashkar Gah.

The Taliban made efforts to take Sangin last month, briefly seizing it but ceding parts of it back when reinforcements arrived. Afghan troops are scrambling to the area again in hopes of trying to hold off a much bigger loss this time.

Helmand Province is the center of Afghan opium production, and hugely lucrative for the Taliban to control. They’ve fought heavily over the province for years, and seem to be on the verge of retaking the area from the Afghan security forces.

In addition to the valuable districts themselves, control of the area would also give Helmand control over the main highway between Herat and Kandahar, giving them yet more control over the entire southwestern portion of Afghanistan.

http://news.antiwar.com/2016/01/19/afghan-reinforcements-scramble-as-taliban-advances-on-helmand-capital/

[galdur]

Taliban kill 10 Afghan police in insider attack: Officials

KANDAHAR - Agence France-Presse

A  rogue Afghan policeman drugged and then shot dead 10 of his colleagues in the country’s volatile south early on Jan. 26, officials said, the second insider attack on police in just over a week.

The Taliban infiltrator then stole their weapons and fled the police outpost in the Chinarto district of Uruzgan province, authorities said, triggering a manhunt.

The attack just after midnight is part of the Taliban’s unprecedented winter campaign of nationwide violence despite a growing push to restart formal peace talks.

“Our investigation shows that this policeman collaborated with the Taliban, drugged his colleagues and killed them when they were unconscious,” Dost Mohammad Nayab, the spokesman for Uruzgan’s governor, told AFP.

Deputy provincial police chief Rahimullah Khan confirmed the account and said an operation had been launched to track down the killer.

Nine policemen killed, says Taliban

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, giving a different account, said nine policemen were killed after the militants captured the police outpost in Chinarto.

So-called insider attacks - when Afghan soldiers or police turn their guns on their colleagues or on international troops - have been a major problem during NATO’s long years fighting alongside Afghan forces.

On Jan. 17 nine Afghan policemen were shot dead in Uruzgan by four rogue colleagues said to be Taliban infiltrators.

The Afghan military, which has been built from scratch since the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001, has struggled with insider attack killings, high casualty rates and mass desertions.

Stretched on multiple fronts as the insurgency expands, Afghan forces have largely fought the ascendant Taliban on their own since NATO’s combat mission formally ended in December 2014.

In recent months the Taliban briefly captured the northern city of Kunduz, the first urban center to fall to the insurgents in 14 years of war, and have seized territory in the opium-growing southern province of Helmand.

International efforts for peace talks continue

The uptick in violence comes amid renewed international efforts to revive peace talks with the Taliban, which is locked in a tussle for supporters with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

Delegates from Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the United States convened in the Afghan capital last week for a one-day meeting seeking a negotiated end to the 14-year Taliban insurgency.

The first round of the so-called “roadmap” talks was held in Islamabad earlier this month as the four nations try to lay the groundwork for direct dialogue between Kabul and Taliban.

Taliban representatives were notably absent in both rounds and analysts caution that any substantive talks are still a long way off.

The Taliban has stepped up attacks on government and foreign targets in Afghanistan this winter, when fighting usually abates, underscoring a worsening security situation.

Observers say the intensifying insurgency highlights a push by the militants to seize more territory in an attempt to wrangle greater concessions when the talks formally start.
January/26/2016

[shiryu]

What absolute cowards these Islamic extremism in Afghanistan are! They either attack unarmed persons or their own sleeping comrade.

[galdur]

Well, it´s about killing the enemy. People have quite happily killed sleeping adversaries for thousands of years.    If they´re unconscious you´re pretty safe while killing them, which is very useful for you I guess.
I don´t think it´s cowardice, just common sense. Of course if you think war is like hollywood nonsense or video games you probably have different ideas.

[galdur]

“The dam is about to break”: why 2016 could be a very bad year for Afghanistan

Updated by Zack Beauchamp on January 25, 2016, 8:30 a.m. ET

This is part one of a three-part series on the war in Afghanistan. Part two, which will run on Tuesday, looks at the emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan. Part three, to publish Wednesday, examines the role of Pakistan and other outside actors.

Things in Afghanistan are bad — bad enough that late last year, President Obama halted the long-awaited withdrawal of American troops from the country. A few months later, the Taliban overran the city of Kunduz, the first major urban center it controlled since the US invasion in 2001. The Taliban were quickly pushed out of the city, but the fact that they took it at all is a testament to how strong they've grown of late. We've also seen a worrying rise in ISIS activity there.

To a lot of Afghanistan watchers, these factors make it seem like things are about to hit the fan: that is, that 2016 is going to be an epically bad year. To get a better sense of why, I reached out to Jason Lyall, an expert on Afghanistan and insurgency at Yale University. Lyall painted a gloomy picture of a resurgent Taliban and a vulnerable Afghan government, one that's only likely to be reversed with a serious — and perhaps unthinkable — military reinvestment by the US and partners in the region.

What follows a transcript of our emailed correspondence, edited slightly for length and clarity.

Zack Beauchamp: You tweeted something really ominous the other day: "I don't think we'll be able to ignore Afghanistan in 2016 like we have for the past few years. Just feels like the dam is about to break." What, exactly, did you mean by that? Is the Taliban that poised for big victories?

Jason Lyall: There's substantial evidence that the Taliban have grown stronger over the past several years. According to our data, the Taliban were able to launch offensives with 100 or more men in 41 districts in 2014. In 2015, that number rose to 65.

In 2015, the Taliban were able to launch and coordinate three major offensives in Kunduz, Faryab, and Helmand, each involving at least 1,000 men. The fact that the Taliban were able to seize and hold Kunduz City, a major urban center, for almost two weeks is alarming.

In addition, the UN has tracked the steady increase in Taliban control throughout Afghanistan; by mid-2015, at least half of Afghanistan's districts were judged under Taliban control or at significant risk.

"WHY WOULD THE TALIBAN SEEK PEACE NOW WHEN THEY APPEAR TO HAVE ALL THE BATTLEFIELD MOMENTUM?"

Taken together, the Taliban have shown an impressive ability to coordinate multiple offensives, seize and hold territory, and inflict substantial losses on Afghan security forces. At the same time, the drawdown of US forces, along with a reluctance to use airpower, means that the forces arrayed against the Taliban are considerably weaker than in the past.

We shouldn't oversell the Taliban threat, however. The Taliban is experiencing factionalism at its top levels, and it has grown increasingly decentralized in recent years, making it more difficult for it to exercise authority over local commanders. That's why these recent offensives are so surprising: The Taliban, despite its own internal weaknesses, has still found a way to generate significant pressure on the Afghan government and forces.

ZB: How did they make such a comeback?

JL: I wouldn't necessarily call it a "comeback." The Taliban has proven to be an incredibly resilient organization that has slowly, patiently, extended its reach throughout Afghanistan. It has employed a mixture of persuasion and coercion among local populations while gradually shifting from hit-and-run tactics to more sustained direct engagements with Afghan security forces.

Again, the withdrawal of US and NATO forces beginning in 2011 — and especially the reduction of close air support sorties — has also allowed the Taliban to coordinate in larger groups and to undertake combat operations against isolated (and often dispirited) Afghan forces.

ZB: Why, after huge amounts of aid from the United States, is the Afghan government so weak?

JL: The current Afghan government is weak for at least three reasons.

First, because it exercises weak or contested control over so many areas, it lacks the ability to tax the population. As a result, its revenues can only cover a fraction of its needs, creating a snowball effect where the absence of services raises questions about its legitimacy.

Second, the current National Unity Government (NUG)'s legitimacy is also questioned by some of the population, in part because of its brokered backroom birth but also because it is currently beset by internal divisions and factions that are undermining its ability to coordinate coherent policies, including against the Taliban.

Third, I would argue that the current government is weak because of all the aid money spent by the United States and other donors. These funds were often mismanaged, contributed to corruption and violence, and led to unsustainable development practices that are now coming to haunt the Afghan government as aid money dries up.

ZB: We've heard a lot of rumblings about an ISIS presence in Afghanistan. How significant is its foothold there?

JL: ISIS certainly has a foothold in Afghanistan, though its presence is largely confined to several districts in three provinces (Nangarhar, Zabul, and Kunduz). Most estimates place ISIS strength at 1,000 to 2,000 fighters and camp followers at most.

"IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO REVERSE TALIBAN MOMENTUM"

We also have to be careful to note that "ISIS" in Afghanistan is really composed of disgruntled Taliban who were unhappy with the direction of the movement and who were seeking to "rebrand" their factions to gain momentum. These defections to ISIS only increased after the death of [Taliban leader] Mullah Omar was publicly announced in July 2015, as splinter groups broke away from the new leader, Akhtar Mohammad Mansour.

The Taliban have been actively fighting ISIS since about September, and have succeeded in driving them from several districts. There also seems to be little appetite among most Afghans for ISIS's brand of Wahhabism, which comes across as alien to both the Taliban's ideology of Sufism and Deobandism as well as Afghan traditions more generally. Add in the US policy of using drone strikes to target ISIS leaders, and it appears that ISIS is likely to remain a fringe player, at least for the time being.

ZB: You've said that peace negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban are likely to fail. Why?

JL: I'm skeptical that the current round of negotiations now getting underway will yield a stable peace settlement. There are many unresolved questions surrounding Taliban motives and organization, for example. Why would the Taliban seek peace now when they appear to have all the battlefield momentum? How widespread is pro-peace sentiment among local commanders? Can Mansour enforce a peace deal, assuming he wants one, or will the trend toward Taliban fragmentation continue?

Questions surround Pakistan's motives, too, and whether it, too, is acting with one voice or if its strategy is hostage to competing interests in Islamabad. Why would it rein in the Taliban when it is moving closer to its objectives? Can Pakistan even exercise that level of control over the Taliban? Right now, there's so many basic questions about the identity of the relevant actors, their motives, and the nature of any acceptable peace to all sides that I'm not optimistic. But I hope I'm wrong.

ZB: If peace negotiations fail, as you expect, is there anything that could be done — either by actors inside Afghanistan or by the US — to turn it around?

JL: It would be possible to reverse Taliban momentum and push them to the negotiation table if there were coordinated action by Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States. If Afghanistan and Pakistan started using force jointly against the Taliban, and if the United States simultaneously stepped up airstrikes and drone strikes against holdout Taliban, then it might be possible to coerce the Taliban to the table.

These coordinated ground and air offensives might degrade Taliban capabilities enough that it begins to worry about its power struggle with ISIS. Fearing that ISIS might step into any emerging power vacuum, and concerned about further losses to its control and its cadres of fighters and supporters, the Taliban (or most of it) might sue for peace.

But there's a lot of "ifs" in this plan, and it isn't clear that Afghanistan and Pakistan can work together — or that Pakistan actually wants to make this work.

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/25/10816330/afghanistan-2016-lyall

[zenitzz]

“The dam is about to break”: why 2016 could be a very bad year for Afghanistan

Updated by Zack Beauchamp on January 25, 2016, 8:30 a.m. ET

This is part one of a three-part series on the war in Afghanistan. Part two, which will run on Tuesday, looks at the emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan. Part three, to publish Wednesday, examines the role of Pakistan and other outside actors.

Things in Afghanistan are bad — bad enough that late last year, President Obama halted the long-awaited withdrawal of American troops from the country. A few months later, the Taliban overran the city of Kunduz, the first major urban center it controlled since the US invasion in 2001. The Taliban were quickly pushed out of the city, but the fact that they took it at all is a testament to how strong they've grown of late. We've also seen a worrying rise in ISIS activity there.

To a lot of Afghanistan watchers, these factors make it seem like things are about to hit the fan: that is, that 2016 is going to be an epically bad year. To get a better sense of why, I reached out to Jason Lyall, an expert on Afghanistan and insurgency at Yale University. Lyall painted a gloomy picture of a resurgent Taliban and a vulnerable Afghan government, one that's only likely to be reversed with a serious — and perhaps unthinkable — military reinvestment by the US and partners in the region.

What follows a transcript of our emailed correspondence, edited slightly for length and clarity.

Zack Beauchamp: You tweeted something really ominous the other day: "I don't think we'll be able to ignore Afghanistan in 2016 like we have for the past few years. Just feels like the dam is about to break." What, exactly, did you mean by that? Is the Taliban that poised for big victories?

Jason Lyall: There's substantial evidence that the Taliban have grown stronger over the past several years. According to our data, the Taliban were able to launch offensives with 100 or more men in 41 districts in 2014. In 2015, that number rose to 65.

In 2015, the Taliban were able to launch and coordinate three major offensives in Kunduz, Faryab, and Helmand, each involving at least 1,000 men. The fact that the Taliban were able to seize and hold Kunduz City, a major urban center, for almost two weeks is alarming.

In addition, the UN has tracked the steady increase in Taliban control throughout Afghanistan; by mid-2015, at least half of Afghanistan's districts were judged under Taliban control or at significant risk.

"WHY WOULD THE TALIBAN SEEK PEACE NOW WHEN THEY APPEAR TO HAVE ALL THE BATTLEFIELD MOMENTUM?"

Taken together, the Taliban have shown an impressive ability to coordinate multiple offensives, seize and hold territory, and inflict substantial losses on Afghan security forces. At the same time, the drawdown of US forces, along with a reluctance to use airpower, means that the forces arrayed against the Taliban are considerably weaker than in the past.

We shouldn't oversell the Taliban threat, however. The Taliban is experiencing factionalism at its top levels, and it has grown increasingly decentralized in recent years, making it more difficult for it to exercise authority over local commanders. That's why these recent offensives are so surprising: The Taliban, despite its own internal weaknesses, has still found a way to generate significant pressure on the Afghan government and forces.

ZB: How did they make such a comeback?

JL: I wouldn't necessarily call it a "comeback." The Taliban has proven to be an incredibly resilient organization that has slowly, patiently, extended its reach throughout Afghanistan. It has employed a mixture of persuasion and coercion among local populations while gradually shifting from hit-and-run tactics to more sustained direct engagements with Afghan security forces.

Again, the withdrawal of US and NATO forces beginning in 2011 — and especially the reduction of close air support sorties — has also allowed the Taliban to coordinate in larger groups and to undertake combat operations against isolated (and often dispirited) Afghan forces.

ZB: Why, after huge amounts of aid from the United States, is the Afghan government so weak?

JL: The current Afghan government is weak for at least three reasons.

First, because it exercises weak or contested control over so many areas, it lacks the ability to tax the population. As a result, its revenues can only cover a fraction of its needs, creating a snowball effect where the absence of services raises questions about its legitimacy.

Second, the current National Unity Government (NUG)'s legitimacy is also questioned by some of the population, in part because of its brokered backroom birth but also because it is currently beset by internal divisions and factions that are undermining its ability to coordinate coherent policies, including against the Taliban.

Third, I would argue that the current government is weak because of all the aid money spent by the United States and other donors. These funds were often mismanaged, contributed to corruption and violence, and led to unsustainable development practices that are now coming to haunt the Afghan government as aid money dries up.

ZB: We've heard a lot of rumblings about an ISIS presence in Afghanistan. How significant is its foothold there?

JL: ISIS certainly has a foothold in Afghanistan, though its presence is largely confined to several districts in three provinces (Nangarhar, Zabul, and Kunduz). Most estimates place ISIS strength at 1,000 to 2,000 fighters and camp followers at most.

"IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO REVERSE TALIBAN MOMENTUM"

We also have to be careful to note that "ISIS" in Afghanistan is really composed of disgruntled Taliban who were unhappy with the direction of the movement and who were seeking to "rebrand" their factions to gain momentum. These defections to ISIS only increased after the death of [Taliban leader] Mullah Omar was publicly announced in July 2015, as splinter groups broke away from the new leader, Akhtar Mohammad Mansour.

The Taliban have been actively fighting ISIS since about September, and have succeeded in driving them from several districts. There also seems to be little appetite among most Afghans for ISIS's brand of Wahhabism, which comes across as alien to both the Taliban's ideology of Sufism and Deobandism as well as Afghan traditions more generally. Add in the US policy of using drone strikes to target ISIS leaders, and it appears that ISIS is likely to remain a fringe player, at least for the time being.

ZB: You've said that peace negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban are likely to fail. Why?

JL: I'm skeptical that the current round of negotiations now getting underway will yield a stable peace settlement. There are many unresolved questions surrounding Taliban motives and organization, for example. Why would the Taliban seek peace now when they appear to have all the battlefield momentum? How widespread is pro-peace sentiment among local commanders? Can Mansour enforce a peace deal, assuming he wants one, or will the trend toward Taliban fragmentation continue?

Questions surround Pakistan's motives, too, and whether it, too, is acting with one voice or if its strategy is hostage to competing interests in Islamabad. Why would it rein in the Taliban when it is moving closer to its objectives? Can Pakistan even exercise that level of control over the Taliban? Right now, there's so many basic questions about the identity of the relevant actors, their motives, and the nature of any acceptable peace to all sides that I'm not optimistic. But I hope I'm wrong.

ZB: If peace negotiations fail, as you expect, is there anything that could be done — either by actors inside Afghanistan or by the US — to turn it around?

JL: It would be possible to reverse Taliban momentum and push them to the negotiation table if there were coordinated action by Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States. If Afghanistan and Pakistan started using force jointly against the Taliban, and if the United States simultaneously stepped up airstrikes and drone strikes against holdout Taliban, then it might be possible to coerce the Taliban to the table.

These coordinated ground and air offensives might degrade Taliban capabilities enough that it begins to worry about its power struggle with ISIS. Fearing that ISIS might step into any emerging power vacuum, and concerned about further losses to its control and its cadres of fighters and supporters, the Taliban (or most of it) might sue for peace.

But there's a lot of "ifs" in this plan, and it isn't clear that Afghanistan and Pakistan can work together — or that Pakistan actually wants to make this work.

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/25/10816330/afghanistan-2016-lyall

The facts on the ground are the best determinants of when it makes sense to leave, Politicians' blather and pronouncements with respect to withdrawal gets people killed.

[galdur]

Rahim Sarwan, Noor Zahid
February 11, 2016 2:57 PM

Millions of residents in the bitterly cold Afghan capital Kabul have been living mostly without power for the last two weeks as critical grid line from neighboring Uzbekistan has been cut off.  The Afghan government blames Taliban attacks for the disruption in the power supply.

Taliban insurgents blew up two power pylons in the Dand-e-Shahabuddin area in the strategic northeastern province of Baghlan after security forces launched a massive operation against the Taliban, Afghan officials say.

The Taliban denied responsibility for destroying power lines and blame Afghan government forces.

The state-owned utility company Da Afghanistan Breshna Shirkat (DABS) has not been able to repair the pylons as the military offensive is still going on, DABS officials say.

“We cannot give this assurance [time frame for towers' repair]. Security forces should give this assurance as to when they may clear the area,” a spokesperson for DABS told VOA. “Once allowed, we could repair the pylons within eight hours.”

About 60 percent of the electrical supply to the city has been cut. The power shortage has not only plunged large swathes of Kabul into darkness, but it has also curtailed the operations of most government departments.

Kabul’s passport department, which receives thousands of applications every day, has seen the number of passports issued decrease by 500 daily.

“Customers have to wait for hours,” Sayed Omar Sabour, the head of the passport department told VOA.

“I have been waiting for two weeks to get a passport,” a customer told VOA. “What kind of a country is this? This is the capital of the country which is supposed to have power around the clock.”

Electricity is the most affordable source of heat and power for cooking for Kabul's estimated five million residents.

http://www.voanews.com/content/taliban-battle-leads-to-kabul-blackout/3187048.html

[bryant.coleman]

What absolute cowards these Islamic extremism in Afghanistan are! They either attack unarmed persons or their own sleeping comrade.

That is how guerrilla warfare is being fought around the world. They attack unarmed people and other soft targets, because if they attack the Afghan Armed Forces, then there will be a lot of casualties. That is why they are concentrating on the small towns and the rural parts of Afghanistan, where the dominance of the army is very weak.

[galdur]

What absolute cowards these Islamic extremism in Afghanistan are! They either attack unarmed persons or their own sleeping comrade.

That is how guerrilla warfare is being fought around the world. They attack unarmed people and other soft targets, because if they attack the Afghan Armed Forces, then there will be a lot of casualties. That is why they are concentrating on the small towns and the rural parts of Afghanistan, where the dominance of the army is very weak.

People watch too much movies and TV. They probably expect vastly inferior insurgent forces to line up orderly in the desert and charge the United States military head on to be easily wiped out by bombing.