Enjoy the Last 24 Hours of Profitable GPU Mining

[bcpokey]

Reminder: 50x current network = 1.25 Petahash = ~833 BFL Minirigs = $24,990,000 = ~1.75x as much USD invested in GPUs in the past 2 years. If you think that will happen overnight, well...

As I said, if it happens in 59 weeks (seems reasonable), you'll still be making $60/mo, and whatever else you made during the run up to 50x.

I would suggest heavily against buying anywhere near the 50x mark of course, but given the size of the pre-orders out there, the pre-order crowd should do pretty well, and potentially even the early bird post-orders.

[fcmatt]

Reminder: 50x current network = 1.25 Petahash = ~833 BFL Minirigs = $24,990,000 = ~1.75x as much USD invested in GPUs in the past 2 years. If you think that will happen overnight, well...

As I said, if it happens in 59 weeks (seems reasonable), you'll still be making $60/mo, and whatever else you made during the run up to 50x.

I would suggest heavily against buying anywhere near the 50x mark of course, but given the size of the pre-orders out there, the pre-order crowd should do pretty well, and potentially even the early bird post-orders.

There is no doubt the first people who get asics will make good money.
The question for me is that in a year will i be in the same boat i am in now. Which is having hardware making a couple of bucks a day when they used to make triple or more per day. I am not sure it is worth the hassle as you are making some large assumptions about the situation. For example the failure rate of the devices combined with a warranty that i cannot find on bfls website. For all i know these things might break after 13 months. Having it repaired or buying another will mess up calculations.

Another example is adding all the asic companies products into the diff. They all seem to be coming out first quarter 2013. If so the spike upwards will be massive in 2 months time. That couple of bucks per day may come much faster then anyone realizes.

Btc price. I think 12 per btc is drastically over priced. 5 per btc is fair when you look at the bitcoin economy and amount of coins out there versus usage.  i would cut current price in half for any calculations. Extra is gravy.

Etc....

[bcpokey]

Reminder: 50x current network = 1.25 Petahash = ~833 BFL Minirigs = $24,990,000 = ~1.75x as much USD invested in GPUs in the past 2 years. If you think that will happen overnight, well...

As I said, if it happens in 59 weeks (seems reasonable), you'll still be making $60/mo, and whatever else you made during the run up to 50x.

I would suggest heavily against buying anywhere near the 50x mark of course, but given the size of the pre-orders out there, the pre-order crowd should do pretty well, and potentially even the early bird post-orders.

There is no doubt the first people who get asics will make good money.
The question for me is that in a year will i be in the same boat i am in now. Which is having hardware making a couple of bucks a day when they used to make triple or more per day. I am not sure it is worth the hassle as you are making some large assumptions about the situation. For example the failure rate of the devices combined with a warranty that i cannot find on bfls website. For all i know these things might break after 13 months. Having it repaired or buying another will mess up calculations.

Another example is adding all the asic companies products into the diff. They all seem to be coming out first quarter 2013. If so the spike upwards will be massive in 2 months time. That couple of bucks per day may come much faster then anyone realizes.

Btc price. I think 12 per btc is drastically over priced. 5 per btc is fair when you look at the bitcoin economy and amount of coins out there versus usage.  i would cut current price in half for any calculations. Extra is gravy.

Etc....

The thing breaking in 13 months doesn't factor in at all to my statement, so it can't really be an assumption, let alone a big one. The warranty info is pretty easy to find, though admittedly not from the main page (https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showwiki.php?title=FAQ:What+is+the+warranty+period+on+your+devices).

I already factored all asic companies products into the difficulty, so again not a big assumption (not any bigger than anything else in the world that is unknown). The pre-orders for Q1 2013 are on the order of 150TH + 57.6TH + 19.8TH = ~225TH, for BFL, bAsic and Avalon respectively. Even assuming 225TH / quarter is reasonable that's only 900TH by end of 2013, far less than my estimation.

Price of BTC makes no human sense, so there is no real way to say what the price should be. I've heard people claim "floors" and "ceilings" to the price based on X Y and Z for literally years now, and they've almost always been wrong, especially the farther one looked in time. The one big assumption is that price will remain close to what it is now, but that is literally the best you can do, so there's no getting around that.

That said I'm not suggesting anyone do anything, but I've always been a middle of the road guy (things are not as great or as horrible as most people claim), and I've been right more often than I've been wrong.

[fcmatt]

Reminder: 50x current network = 1.25 Petahash = ~833 BFL Minirigs = $24,990,000 = ~1.75x as much USD invested in GPUs in the past 2 years. If you think that will happen overnight, well...

As I said, if it happens in 59 weeks (seems reasonable), you'll still be making $60/mo, and whatever else you made during the run up to 50x.

I would suggest heavily against buying anywhere near the 50x mark of course, but given the size of the pre-orders out there, the pre-order crowd should do pretty well, and potentially even the early bird post-orders.

There is no doubt the first people who get asics will make good money.
The question for me is that in a year will i be in the same boat i am in now. Which is having hardware making a couple of bucks a day when they used to make triple or more per day. I am not sure it is worth the hassle as you are making some large assumptions about the situation. For example the failure rate of the devices combined with a warranty that i cannot find on bfls website. For all i know these things might break after 13 months. Having it repaired or buying another will mess up calculations.

Another example is adding all the asic companies products into the diff. They all seem to be coming out first quarter 2013. If so the spike upwards will be massive in 2 months time. That couple of bucks per day may come much faster then anyone realizes.

Btc price. I think 12 per btc is drastically over priced. 5 per btc is fair when you look at the bitcoin economy and amount of coins out there versus usage.  i would cut current price in half for any calculations. Extra is gravy.

Etc....

The thing breaking in 13 months doesn't factor in at all to my statement, so it can't really be an assumption, let alone a big one. The warranty info is pretty easy to find, though admittedly not from the main page (https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showwiki.php?title=FAQ:What+is+the+warranty+period+on+your+devices).

I already factored all asic companies products into the difficulty, so again not a big assumption (not any bigger than anything else in the world that is unknown). The pre-orders for Q1 2013 are on the order of 150TH + 57.6TH + 19.8TH = ~225TH, for BFL, bAsic and Avalon respectively. Even assuming 225TH / quarter is reasonable that's only 900TH by end of 2013, far less than my estimation.

Price of BTC makes no human sense, so there is no real way to say what the price should be. I've heard people claim "floors" and "ceilings" to the price based on X Y and Z for literally years now, and they've almost always been wrong, especially the farther one looked in time. The one big assumption is that price will remain close to what it is now, but that is literally the best you can do, so there's no getting around that.

That said I'm not suggesting anyone do anything, but I've always been a middle of the road guy (things are not as great or as horrible as most people claim), and I've been right more often than I've been wrong.

You have made some good counter points.

I just wonder if that 3 dollar fan on an asic board goes bad and the board keeps running will it fry? I wonder it if shuts off or somin. Video cards sure dont. They just hang or worse.

Is not the deepbit guy also pushing out asics next year? People forget about him but i have not kept up to date.
Unknown builders have to be considered when you have guys like  ?art forz? Around.

I think it is wise to factor in a price 50% less then today to be on the safe side.

But all your points are reasonable.

[bcpokey]

Reminder: 50x current network = 1.25 Petahash = ~833 BFL Minirigs = $24,990,000 = ~1.75x as much USD invested in GPUs in the past 2 years. If you think that will happen overnight, well...

As I said, if it happens in 59 weeks (seems reasonable), you'll still be making $60/mo, and whatever else you made during the run up to 50x.

I would suggest heavily against buying anywhere near the 50x mark of course, but given the size of the pre-orders out there, the pre-order crowd should do pretty well, and potentially even the early bird post-orders.

There is no doubt the first people who get asics will make good money.
The question for me is that in a year will i be in the same boat i am in now. Which is having hardware making a couple of bucks a day when they used to make triple or more per day. I am not sure it is worth the hassle as you are making some large assumptions about the situation. For example the failure rate of the devices combined with a warranty that i cannot find on bfls website. For all i know these things might break after 13 months. Having it repaired or buying another will mess up calculations.

Another example is adding all the asic companies products into the diff. They all seem to be coming out first quarter 2013. If so the spike upwards will be massive in 2 months time. That couple of bucks per day may come much faster then anyone realizes.

Btc price. I think 12 per btc is drastically over priced. 5 per btc is fair when you look at the bitcoin economy and amount of coins out there versus usage.  i would cut current price in half for any calculations. Extra is gravy.

Etc....

The thing breaking in 13 months doesn't factor in at all to my statement, so it can't really be an assumption, let alone a big one. The warranty info is pretty easy to find, though admittedly not from the main page (https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showwiki.php?title=FAQ:What+is+the+warranty+period+on+your+devices).

I already factored all asic companies products into the difficulty, so again not a big assumption (not any bigger than anything else in the world that is unknown). The pre-orders for Q1 2013 are on the order of 150TH + 57.6TH + 19.8TH = ~225TH, for BFL, bAsic and Avalon respectively. Even assuming 225TH / quarter is reasonable that's only 900TH by end of 2013, far less than my estimation.

Price of BTC makes no human sense, so there is no real way to say what the price should be. I've heard people claim "floors" and "ceilings" to the price based on X Y and Z for literally years now, and they've almost always been wrong, especially the farther one looked in time. The one big assumption is that price will remain close to what it is now, but that is literally the best you can do, so there's no getting around that.

That said I'm not suggesting anyone do anything, but I've always been a middle of the road guy (things are not as great or as horrible as most people claim), and I've been right more often than I've been wrong.

You have made some good counter points.

I just wonder if that 3 dollar fan on an asic board goes bad and the board keeps running will it fry? I wonder it if shuts off or somin. Video cards sure dont. They just hang or worse.

Is not the deepbit guy also pushing out asics next year? People forget about him but i have not kept up to date.
Unknown builders have to be considered when you have guys like  ?art forz? Around.

I think it is wise to factor in a price 50% less then today to be on the safe side.

But all your points are reasonable.

Yeah I haven't kept up much with Tycho's development admittedly, because last I heard the specs he released were 80GH/sec for $2800, which is not a comparable cost with the "Big 3" (is what I'll call em now). He certainly could pull out a surprise win though, he has the time (his first announcement said ~3.23.13), and I could be wrong but in my head he's mad bitcoin-rich.  Artforz is a blast from the past, I remember that people thought he had FPGA/ASICs running back in '10.

I certainly concede that there's a lot of unknowns, shoddy production quality devices, dark horse miners, one or all of the Big 3 double-dipping (selling and mining simultaneously), price bottoming out (the least predictable in my mind), exchanges getting seized, etc.  It will be potentially the last really big exciting time left to bitcoin, and I'm looking forward to it, whichever way it leans

[bitboyben]

I keep hearing about double dipping from manufacturers but is here any evidence? I think Organofcorti has a chart which would detect that and so far nothing. I don't think it is in the manufacturer's interest to mine. 51% = btc death = no money :,(

[bcpokey]

I keep hearing about double dipping from manufacturers but is here any evidence? I think Organofcorti has a chart which would detect that and so far nothing. I don't think it is in the manufacturer's interest to mine. 51% = btc death = no money :,(

No, there is no evidence, as there is no evidence that any bitcoin asics exist, which would render such impossible at the current time. Double dipping could only occur when product exists, it does not require any manufacturer take 51%, simply that they bring online their excess stock, to make money off both sales and unsold stock. What % they would take in the long term is unknown, perhaps in the end you will see 23% / 23% / 23% /23% / 8% split between asic manufacturers with 8% for customers. No worries about 51% there, and a cool 3.6 mill for each manufacturer per year at current prices.

[Stephen Gornick]

Double dipping could only occur when product exists, it does not require any manufacturer take 51%, simply that they bring online their excess stock, to make money off both sales and unsold stock.

Not every ASIC manufacturer is selling hardware to customers.  From another thread:

If the foundry keeps up 4 layers a week from now on, it means ASICMINEr should receive the chips just before Christmas, so we could theoretically (hopefully) have something online before the end of the year....hashing the first ASIC mined block ever

then following that:

(~2-3 weeks)
First 6TH/s online
(~2-3 weeks)
Second 6TH/s online
(~0-4 weeks)
50TH/s of chips out
(~2-3 weeks, ~2-5 weeks if location changes)
Part or all of the 50TH/s online