Huge difficulty spike after Halving -- coincidence?

[AngelusWebDesign]

Blocks   210003
Total BTC   10.500M
 
Difficulty   3438909
Estimated   3496486 in 1677 blks
 
Network total   30.949 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.54 / 477 s

I know, variance... but 3 Thash/S is quite a bit to write off as variance, especially since a FEW people at least (maybe quite a few?) are shutting off their GPU rigs this morning.

I've been checking
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

a lot lately, with this halving coming up (and now past us).

I must say I was shocked at what I saw this morning -- it's as if someone was waiting until after the halving to turn on his ASIC array!
Maybe one of the companies is shipping ASICs?

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[bcpokey]

You're a blast from the past man, same old stuff too.

However in this case I'm actually kinda on board with your notions. We're a number of hours ahead of schedule for block halving, and this is a big spike.

However I'm gonna remain calm, and suggest that's just the way the cookie has crumbled. blockchain.info (I know it only guesses at block origins) shows an unusual number of quick blocks, 21009 was found in 2 minutes by BTC guild, 21010 was found in 3 minutes after that by BTC guild (the pools hashrate has remained fairly constant). The unknowns have increased but that could be attributable to people wanting in on the last 50 blocks going solo.

So for now, I'm just gonna say variance.

[crazyates]

You're really looking at a 3 block window and claiming ASICs? Really?

[DanielleEber]

It's possible there are errors in reporting hash rate, if the reward is factored in anywhere in the calculation.

[AngelusWebDesign]

You're really looking at a 3 block window and claiming ASICs? Really?

It's not a 3 block window.

At first, I was a bit confused -- I thought "of course the estimate is off, the difficulty just reset" but it DIDN'T JUST RESET -- we just had a block halving.
A block reward halving shouldn't affect the calculation of block/hour and so forth.
Right?

[bcpokey]

You're really looking at a 3 block window and claiming ASICs? Really?

It's not a 3 block window.

At first, I was a bit confused -- I thought "of course the estimate is off, the difficulty just reset" but it DIDN'T JUST RESET -- we just had a block halving.
A block reward halving shouldn't affect the calculation of block/hour and so forth.
Right?

Yes you are correct. This thread is spooky, with me agreeing with you so much.

[DeathAndTaxes]

The short term network hashrate is always volatile.  A change of 3TH/s, 5TH/s, or even 10TH/s isn't particularly meaningful.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

Now if over the next 3 days the 3 day moving average increases by more than say ~2TH/s you might have something other than just noise.

[meowmeowbrowncow]

Re:  Variance.  True.

But.


FPGA shipments have been completed.  Anyone purchasing GPU's right now is not acting rationally.

Turning on already purchased GPU to offset heating bills is plausible.  I would be surprised if such practice would account for more than 1 TH.


A sustained multi TH increase would be very odd given the environment.

[AngelusWebDesign]

The short term network hashrate is always volatile.  A change of 3TH/s, 5TH/s, or even 10TH/s isn't particularly meaningful.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

Now if over the next 3 days the 3 day moving average increases by more than say ~2TH/s you might have something other than just noise.

I don't know... that 3-day moving average line seems to be spiking upward. Unless it crashes down REAL fast in the next half-day, we're looking at an increase of network hashing power.

This is especially strange because I expected the total TH/s to slow down a bit, if anything.

[sethsethseth]

This always happens after a difficulty change.  Check back in a few days.

[Blazr]

That fact that a lot of people powered up their rigs to specifically try and mine blocks #209999 & #210000 could also have had a part in this.

[AngelusWebDesign]

This always happens after a difficulty change.  Check back in a few days.

I am well aware of what happens after a difficulty change; I've been mining Bitcoins since May 2011 

We didn't just have a diff change though. Yesterday's numbers were perfectly normal.

[AndrewBUD]

That fact that a lot of people powered up their rigs to specifically try and mine blocks #209999 & #210000 could also have had a part in this.

I think this is what happened... Lots of people turned on to finish the 50BTC blocks...

[CoinDiver]

This always happens when the reward halves... so far at least.

[bcpokey]

This always happens when the reward halves... so far at least.

I laughed.

[AndrewBUD]

How does this always happen when this is the first time it's halved?

[CoinHoarder]

Anyone that doesn't frequent these forums probably doesn't realize that GPU mining is not profitable anymore.

It might take a month or so for people to figure it out and sell their rig or mine ALT coins instead.

And of course there are the free power people, who I imagine will continue GPU mining until their GPUs die. But, I can't imagine there's a whole lot of these types.

[flynn]

This always happens when the reward halves... so far at least.

FTW

[AndrewBUD]

I have free power.. Friend of mine hosts my rigs at his apartment.

[molecular]

I'd say it's significant. Assuming ASIC-testing.