Prediction Markets show 50/50 Chance Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto

[bitcoinmarkets]

web version: http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/bitcoin-blog/new-evidence-shows-craig-wright-is-not-satoshi-nakamoto-but-likely-a-hoaxer-or-victim-of-extortion



To start: the evidence presented from Wired and Gizmodo as we posted the other day, is really weak.
​
It has since been revealed that the PGP keys used are almost certainly a forgery, and it has been demonstrated that backdating of pages is trivial and can not be trusted as a reliable source of evidence.

In addition, it's been revealed that MANY "journalism" news outlets received the hacked/leaked/whatever tarball that was sent around exposing Craig Wright as Satoshi Nakamoto:

https://twitter.com/truth_eater/status/674788036752879616

For those who don't recognize the name, Leah McGrath Goodmann , whose Twitter name seriously is "Truth_Eater", is the infamous reporter behind the epic fail of the Newsweek cover that declared Dorian Nakamoto to be Satoshi. She somehow still has a job at Newsweek, and has said that even for her who received this leak from the source, the burden of evidence and hearsay was not worth publishing. She even said she prefers "primary sources" -- hah, cute.



The nail in the coffin though for the "Craig Wright is Satoshi" case is the set of revelations from friends and family of Wright that he was being actively extorted. Here's a tweet storm from Ian Grigg, a crypto veteran with close connections to Wright's loved ones who runs the site Financial Cryptography:

https://twitter.com/iang_fc/status/674722847160422400

So between the evidence having serious doubts cast upon its legitimacy, the fact that multiple new outlets were confronted with this bag of evidence, and now the revelation that he was targeted as a victim of extortion -- it looks more and more like Craig Wright is not Satoshi. The prediction markets per Fairlay are showing that there's still a 50/50 chance that he is Satoshi, although that may change:



As Grigg says, the "facts are evolving", so the strength of the counterargument that Craig Wright is not Satoshi may change in the coming days. But for now, it looks like this has just been an elaborate hoax or extortion plot that the whole bitcoin community has been gripped by.

[1713523200]

1713523200

[1713523200]

1713523200

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

It's funny because I just made a thread practically saying that it's pretty much 50/50 and it would require a big amount of faith to believe that he is the real deal. I pulled the statistic out of my ass (50/50 is just how I feel about this) and apparently prediction markets say the same.

[Quantus]

I knew within 30 minutes of the story breaking it was fake. What I can't understand however is how so many people were pulled down into this megalomaniacs fantasy world.

[calkob]

Its hard to tell, and really who cares anyway.  the only reason that i would care is if satoshi came back, collected his 1.5 million haul and dumped them on the open market........ price crash in which i would be buying lol

[NorrisK]

I knew within 30 minutes of the story breaking it was fake. What I can't understand however is how so many people were pulled down into this megalomaniacs fantasy world.

They get pulled down into this because they want to believe it is him.. Satoshi is a bitcoin legend, and just like bigfoot or the monster of loch ness, people desperately want to prove who he is.

It is just a shame to see how people keep holding on to the idea after it has been proven that it is a fake.

[KaChingCoinDev]

The story looks shady by some of his comments. He said, "I've been running bitcoin." Satoshi Nakamoto would know that Bitcoin isn't "run", rather its open. That's why its so popular. I'm guessing that this is a publicity stunt for his many bitcoin startups.

[keepdoing]

I knew within 30 minutes of the story breaking it was fake. What I can't understand however is how so many people were pulled down into this megalomaniacs fantasy world.

They get pulled down into this because they want to believe it is him.. Satoshi is a bitcoin legend, and just like bigfoot or the monster of loch ness, people desperately want to prove who he is.

It is just a shame to see how people keep holding on to the idea after it has been proven that it is a fake.

Nonsense.  I don't want to believe in him for instance.  I mean, I really don't care. It simply is what it is.  Most polls are split.  All the "proof" is probable.

What I care about is the fact that Craig/Satoshi has a Supercomputer modeling Bitcoin Scaling, more Bitcoin than pretty much 99.99999% of population, and will be releasing papers possibly outlining Turing architecture.

All this "It's Not Satoshi" garbage is simply deflection because noone can face discussing the potential impact of Craig/Satoshi on bitcoin in the near future.

[AndySt]

Firstly, we cannot exclude that it was a collective pseudonym behind which hid a few people. Secondly it all starts to become kind of fun when every few months they find a new contender.

[HabBear]

In other words, know one knows more that the WIRED article informed us of!

That WIRED article walked the exact line of "maybe he is, but maybe he isn't". Good thing we aren't betting on it...50/50 isn't good enough odds!

This "prediction poll" is declaring 80% say Craig Wright is not Satoshi...https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1281423.0

That's the problem with polling, you take two different samples and you get two different answers.

[btckold24]

like some previously were stating that we are desperate to know who he is so we are willing to
believe Craig could be him. Personally the craig wright guys seems doushy and hope he isnt
the true creator of bitcoin.

[helloeverybody]

theres going to have to be some pretty solid evidence for the real satoshi to be identified. i dont think this will ever happen. satoshi is better staying a legend.

[NorrisK]

I knew within 30 minutes of the story breaking it was fake. What I can't understand however is how so many people were pulled down into this megalomaniacs fantasy world.

They get pulled down into this because they want to believe it is him.. Satoshi is a bitcoin legend, and just like bigfoot or the monster of loch ness, people desperately want to prove who he is.

It is just a shame to see how people keep holding on to the idea after it has been proven that it is a fake.

Nonsense.  I don't want to believe in him for instance.  I mean, I really don't care. It simply is what it is.  Most polls are split.  All the "proof" is probable.

What I care about is the fact that Craig/Satoshi has a Supercomputer modeling Bitcoin Scaling, more Bitcoin than pretty much 99.99999% of population, and will be releasing papers possibly outlining Turing architecture.

All this "It's Not Satoshi" garbage is simply deflection because noone can face discussing the potential impact of Craig/Satoshi on bitcoin in the near future.

You still haven't given up? His story is extremely flawed.

He was early at the bitcoin scene and this can explain a lot of his involvement in bitcoin. That does not mean he is satoshi because of that.

[hunnaryb]

Its not so much the evidence is flawed. More so that it doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

[steveds]

could that even be considered as proof ? they just pull inn whoever they want to ,not a new thing .
satoshi is a well known Face as they say bitcoin is an experiment. even if someone confirms satoshi's identity somehow ,what would be the difference ?

[n2004al]

I don't think that he is Satoshi. I am not able to judge the "facts" which are found and even how credible must (might) be who discovered and judged that those as true and testify that that person is Satoshi. But I cannot believe that a person like Satoshi who was extremely reserved during all its public life (when was "public" person) present his identity in such way and without having any reason to do this. He, if wanted to do something which has to do with bitcoin (seeing the various divergences between its core developers and the situation of Bitcoin Foundation) could followed again the same way of communication had before. Or even privately with everyone involved in the development of bitcoin or that have importance on it. But telling something without being asked about it and in that ridiculous way make me think that him is only a narcissist and clown or a person who need visibility and being adored. Maybe even a little unbalanced person.

[~Bitcoin~]

I will be betting NO on fairlay market. Quite good 2+ odds on no option. This betting may be cancelled as it is not easy to proof orginal satoshi and also within this short period.