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Author Topic: BTC Network about to hit 1 exahash for the first time over a 24 hour period!!!  (Read 1771 times)
d57heinz
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December 10, 2015, 10:43:40 PM
 #1

Price   417.10 USD/฿
Hashrate   963.73 PH/s
Activity   116 TX/min
Unconfirmed Txs   1,126
Fee Rate   0.00014723 BTC
Fee paid by unconfirmed transactions for every 1,000 bytes of size.

https://chain.so/BTC

as per the wallet 
963,731.06 TH/s

Excited that the network is growing along with the price but as a miner im being pushed out Sad.. So I think my plan now is to buy coins.. With the price seeming to follow diff.. and the halving coming faster and faster.. i feel like a push in price is inevitable.  I think at the rate of network hash increase you could profit much better buying coins now than any mining machine can do.. most orders are preorders and i think that is for a good reason.. It will increase 10 - 20 % in diff by time you get miner thus allowing manufactures to bank.. Just my thoughts anyway..


Best Regards
d57heinz

As in nature, all is ebb and tide, all is wave motion, so it seems that in all branches of industry, alternating currents - electric wave motion - will have the sway. ~Nikola Tesla~
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December 10, 2015, 11:14:37 PM
 #2

That is ridiculous. I've already been pushed out. When you have limited electrical power to expand your mining setup and have enough cash to only run at about 4TH/s with your power consumption you don't have a lot of options.

I'd agree on the purchasing aspect. Unless you have a couple thousand dollars to throw away and it wouldn't hurt you if you never got it back, mining is virtually pointless. It's incredible the small guys can even hang on at all at this point. It's still a great feeling though to know you have machines "busting their balls" for you to make some bitcoin at all hours of the day..

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philipma1957
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December 10, 2015, 11:24:17 PM
 #3

Price   417.10 USD/฿
Hashrate   963.73 PH/s
Activity   116 TX/min
Unconfirmed Txs   1,126
Fee Rate   0.00014723 BTC
Fee paid by unconfirmed transactions for every 1,000 bytes of size.

https://chain.so/BTC

as per the wallet 
963,731.06 TH/s

Excited that the network is growing along with the price but as a miner im being pushed out Sad.. So I think my plan now is to buy coins.. With the price seeming to follow diff.. and the halving coming faster and faster.. i feel like a push in price is inevitable.  I think at the rate of network hash increase you could profit much better buying coins now than any mining machine can do.. most orders are preorders and i think that is for a good reason.. It will increase 10 - 20 % in diff by time you get miner thus allowing manufactures to bank.. Just my thoughts anyway..


Best Regards
d57heinz

this type of growth has a big ripple effect.

Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455      407,718,729 GH/s     price 230


Dec 10 2015  93,879,816,253                  735,060,070 GH/s  price 415                 current coinbase

Dec 10 2015    119,000,000,000             963,731,060 GH/s    price 415               d57's predictive peak number

I gave you a catch phrase  ppn or predictive peak number.


That sep 04 number was mostly all pre s-7 or .51watt  at best gear

So the monster surge has  happen or your ppn has come in.  this tidal wave if accurate means

407ph of   .51watt or worse gear
556 ph of .29 watt or better gear

all that 407ph is now very close to under water if it is at 10 cents or higher.  yeah say half of the sept 4 gear was .51 watt and the rest averaged a .75 watt  that would be 200ph of gear that will stop making money at the end of this adjustment.

So we have a very interesting dynamic setting up here...    will price rise to allow that gear to mine or will a lot of gear drop off next jump.


I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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December 10, 2015, 11:28:30 PM
 #4

Indeed, this wall of diff will be interesting to follow
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December 11, 2015, 01:23:28 AM
 #5

all that 407ph is now very close to under water if it is at 10 cents or higher.  yeah say half of the sept 4 gear was .51 watt and the rest averaged a .75 watt  that would be 200ph of gear that will stop making money at the end of this adjustment.

So we have a very interesting dynamic setting up here...    will price rise to allow that gear to mine or will a lot of gear drop off next jump.

I suspect the large miners are busy replacing their 0.25 Joule/Gigahash and upwards miners with sub 0.1 J/Gh 16nm miners.  KNC have had sub 0.1 chips since July and it is months since Bitfury announced their 16nm tapeout.  I have no doubt others are very rapidly moving to sub 0.1 J/Gh chips.

So just think of it as racks of older miners being pulled out and replaced with sub 0.1 J/Gh miners.
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December 11, 2015, 07:08:26 AM
 #6

The bitcoin network is pretty much controlled by corporations now, Chinese corporations with no interest in the health of the bitcoin network. Power consumption for them is not even a concern, i mean just look at their air pollution crisis and how little they care.

I think Satoshi would have been very disappointed with how things turned out and how much a couple big businesses control the network.
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December 11, 2015, 07:36:01 AM
 #7

The bitcoin network is pretty much controlled by corporations now, Chinese corporations with no interest in the health of the bitcoin network. Power consumption for them is not even a concern, i mean just look at their air pollution crisis and how little they care.

I think Satoshi would have been very disappointed with how things turned out and how much a couple big businesses control the network.

well as long as they do not 51%ed the network who really care, and they will not do it, because it will go against their nice profit

also no miners are interested in supporting bitcoin, this is a well know things, they are there only for the profit, otherwise one should remove the reward if you want to be less hypocrite
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December 11, 2015, 08:05:34 AM
 #8

Mining has become a business with very large barrier of entry, this is really not good for decentralization. Chinese government only need to take down those large Chinese mining pools to heavily disrupt the bitcoin network

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December 11, 2015, 08:10:13 AM
 #9

Price   417.10 USD/฿
Hashrate   963.73 PH/s
Activity   116 TX/min
Unconfirmed Txs   1,126
Fee Rate   0.00014723 BTC
Fee paid by unconfirmed transactions for every 1,000 bytes of size.

https://chain.so/BTC

as per the wallet  
963,731.06 TH/s

Excited that the network is growing along with the price but as a miner im being pushed out Sad.. So I think my plan now is to buy coins.. With the price seeming to follow diff.. and the halving coming faster and faster.. i feel like a push in price is inevitable.  I think at the rate of network hash increase you could profit much better buying coins now than any mining machine can do.. most orders are preorders and i think that is for a good reason.. It will increase 10 - 20 % in diff by time you get miner thus allowing manufactures to bank.. Just my thoughts anyway..


Best Regards
d57heinz

The wallet and that chain.so website are using extremely low number of blocks for calculations, 24 hour hashrate looks like this:
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

Still the growth is jawdropping...

Edit: You are probably right with that 24hrs hashrate, my own site nextdifficulty.com shows the same but I didn't notice before because I had to readjust axis intervals on my chart  Smiley

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December 11, 2015, 09:46:57 AM
 #10


as per the wallet 
963,731.06 TH/s

Best Regards
d57heinz

 And again, you're looking at an INSTANTANIOUS estimate that has very little to no meaning.

 We MIGHT hit 963xxx sustained TH in a couple weeks though, at the current rate of REAL hashrate increase.


Quote

I suspect the large miners are busy replacing their 0.25 Joule/Gigahash and upwards miners with sub 0.1 J/Gh 16nm miners.  KNC have had sub 0.1 chips since July and it is months since Bitfury announced their 16nm tapeout.  I have no doubt others are very rapidly moving to sub 0.1 J/Gh chips.


 I'm starting to wonder about that KnC announcement. Would not be the first time they made claims they later had to retract.
 I find it interesting that the only definitive "full custom 14nm" announcement (Innosilicon A3/A4) doesn't claim sub-0.1 just close to that level (with final specs not absolutely announced).
 I also find it interesting that KnC's pool hasn't shown any significant hashrate increase for a long time now.

 I would NOT be supprised if BitFury finally got it's next-gen chip into production, and gear based on that being part of the reason for the current hashrate climb.

 Part of it COULD be BW.com/Lketc getting the B-Eleven into production a bit earlier than most of us expected.


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December 11, 2015, 09:48:30 AM
 #11

Mining has become a business with very large barrier of entry, this is really not good for decentralization. Chinese government only need to take down those large Chinese mining pools to heavily disrupt the bitcoin network

 It would take a lot more than that, there are quite a few major farms outside of China.
 It would probably do some major hit to Bitcoin price if that happened, though.

I'm no longer legendary just in my own mind!
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December 11, 2015, 09:54:35 AM
 #12

Looks like someone added some new equipment or expanded operations using similar existing equipment.

The mining arms race continue.

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December 11, 2015, 02:00:56 PM
 #13

The bitcoin network is pretty much controlled by corporations now, Chinese corporations with no interest in the health of the bitcoin network. Power consumption for them is not even a concern, i mean just look at their air pollution crisis and how little they care.

I think Satoshi would have been very disappointed with how things turned out and how much a couple big businesses control the network.

well as long as they do not 51%ed the network who really care, and they will not do it, because it will go against their nice profit

also no miners are interested in supporting bitcoin, this is a well know things, they are there only for the profit, otherwise one should remove the reward if you want to be less hypocrite

I dont mine for the money, i dont give a crap about the profit, im using hardware that doesnt ROI. I support the idea of bitcoin.

So maybe look in the mirror before you call someone a hypocrite. The Chinese are destroying Bitcoin (as well as their own air) thats a fact.
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December 11, 2015, 04:20:12 PM
 #14

Price   417.10 USD/฿
Hashrate   963.73 PH/s
Activity   116 TX/min
Unconfirmed Txs   1,126
Fee Rate   0.00014723 BTC
Fee paid by unconfirmed transactions for every 1,000 bytes of size.

https://chain.so/BTC

as per the wallet  
963,731.06 TH/s

Excited that the network is growing along with the price but as a miner im being pushed out Sad.. So I think my plan now is to buy coins.. With the price seeming to follow diff.. and the halving coming faster and faster.. i feel like a push in price is inevitable.  I think at the rate of network hash increase you could profit much better buying coins now than any mining machine can do.. most orders are preorders and i think that is for a good reason.. It will increase 10 - 20 % in diff by time you get miner thus allowing manufactures to bank.. Just my thoughts anyway..


Best Regards
d57heinz

this type of growth has a big ripple effect.

Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455      407,718,729 GH/s     price 230


Dec 10 2015  93,879,816,253                  735,060,070 GH/s  price 415                 current coinbase

Dec 10 2015    119,000,000,000             963,731,060 GH/s    price 415               d57's predictive peak number

I gave you a catch phrase  ppn or predictive peak number.


That sep 04 number was mostly all pre s-7 or .51watt  at best gear

So the monster surge has  happen or your ppn has come in.  this tidal wave if accurate means

407ph of   .51watt or worse gear
556 ph of .29 watt or better gear

all that 407ph is now very close to under water if it is at 10 cents or higher.  yeah say half of the sept 4 gear was .51 watt and the rest averaged a .75 watt  that would be 200ph of gear that will stop making money at the end of this adjustment.

So we have a very interesting dynamic setting up here...    will price rise to allow that gear to mine or will a lot of gear drop off next jump.



Yes i would agree.  But i do think there are many places running still that can write off the farm costs.  Thus giving them a bit of an edge. the problem i think we have is that all that old gear isnt really in the hands of miners like you and i.. its in Huge farms that have prolly less than 5 c power.  Thus allowing for s3 and s4 still.. I can see when those machines start to only break even that they start swapping to the newest equipment..  

This shows the pools that got the surge in hash..  http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/7d?c=m&t=a  

I really think this is hw tests or a large farm doing tests on its network and making adjustments.  Thus the crazy swings..  

But i also have to think that if 10% variance is normal then we could have potentially had a bit of a spike of variance coupled with a large farm turning on.  

But we did drop 300 ph just in last 8 hrs.. so i cant imagine that this is just us little miners doing this.And why would they shut them off they are still profitable atm?..  I have firm suspicion that its the same person doing it.. That graph i posted above shows that antpool and f2pool both rose in hash at the same time..

I'm gonna bet on the price this go around till the diff stabilizes for a cpl months.. Then ill see where hw prices are.

Edit.. Thanks for the ppn i like that:)  also the diff would be over 130 billion at that hashrate. I didn't record it for some reason when it hit its peak.. My mpos does a nice job calculating it for me i just have to be around to catch it.

Best regards
d57heinz

As in nature, all is ebb and tide, all is wave motion, so it seems that in all branches of industry, alternating currents - electric wave motion - will have the sway. ~Nikola Tesla~
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December 11, 2015, 04:39:36 PM
 #15

Mining has become a business with very large barrier of entry, this is really not good for decentralization. Chinese government only need to take down those large Chinese mining pools to heavily disrupt the bitcoin network

if china raided and destroyed all bitcoin mines it would be quite an interesting development.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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December 11, 2015, 04:40:22 PM
 #16

Mining has become a business with very large barrier of entry, this is really not good for decentralization. Chinese government only need to take down those large Chinese mining pools to heavily disrupt the bitcoin network

exactly.. And you think we had a backlog of transactions before!!.. Imagine half the network is forced off and we have min 20 min block times.(maybe bigger blocks would alleviate this issue to some degree.)   Decentralization is key to Bitcoin success.. i think as this progresses we will see more that come to this realization!.

Best Regards
d57heinz

As in nature, all is ebb and tide, all is wave motion, so it seems that in all branches of industry, alternating currents - electric wave motion - will have the sway. ~Nikola Tesla~
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December 11, 2015, 04:45:36 PM
 #17

Mining has become a business with very large barrier of entry, this is really not good for decentralization. Chinese government only need to take down those large Chinese mining pools to heavily disrupt the bitcoin network

exactly.. And you think we had a backlog of transactions before!!.. Imagine half the network is forced off and we have min 20 min block times.(maybe bigger blocks would alleviate this issue to some degree.)   Decentralization is key to Bitcoin success.. i think as this progresses we will see more that come to this realization!.

Best Regards
d57heinz
We would hope they do it slowly, if China was going to disrupt bitcoin. Else everyone else will be processing transactions. I can't bear to think what kind of mining power is hosted out of China.

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December 11, 2015, 05:12:44 PM
 #18


as per the wallet 
963,731.06 TH/s

Best Regards
d57heinz

 And again, you're looking at an INSTANTANIOUS estimate that has very little to no meaning.

 We MIGHT hit 963xxx sustained TH in a couple weeks though, at the current rate of REAL hashrate increase.


Quote

I suspect the large miners are busy replacing their 0.25 Joule/Gigahash and upwards miners with sub 0.1 J/Gh 16nm miners.  KNC have had sub 0.1 chips since July and it is months since Bitfury announced their 16nm tapeout.  I have no doubt others are very rapidly moving to sub 0.1 J/Gh chips.


 I'm starting to wonder about that KnC announcement. Would not be the first time they made claims they later had to retract.
 I find it interesting that the only definitive "full custom 14nm" announcement (Innosilicon A3/A4) doesn't claim sub-0.1 just close to that level (with final specs not absolutely announced).
 I also find it interesting that KnC's pool hasn't shown any significant hashrate increase for a long time now.

 I would NOT be supprised if BitFury finally got it's next-gen chip into production, and gear based on that being part of the reason for the current hashrate climb.

 Part of it COULD be BW.com/Lketc getting the B-Eleven into production a bit earlier than most of us expected.



I did state in my subject that this was over a 24 hour period.. this may have no significance to you. But ive been using this for a long time to predict where the hash is headed...  Give a couple of diff adjustments. not a couple weeks.. Id say 2 - 3 diff adjustments..  check out http://nextdifficulty.com/  you can see it clearly here.. it didnt catch the moment when it hit 960 but its close enough you can see whats going on.


Best Regards
d57heinz

As in nature, all is ebb and tide, all is wave motion, so it seems that in all branches of industry, alternating currents - electric wave motion - will have the sway. ~Nikola Tesla~
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December 12, 2015, 04:41:55 AM
 #19

@ QunitLeo

 predictive peak number or PPN  is what I coined as a catch phrase for d57heinz's number prediction method.

At first I though you were right and his idea was not good.  I argued with him then after reading all his posts and my posts I realized he could be right I  do see a correlation.

  I went back for about 25-26 adjustments  and the ppn comes true ⅔ of the time within 4 jumps. I don't like being wrong but I was wrong at least ⅔ wrong for the last 25-26 jumps
This was in a time when we had negative jumps .

When you go back to higher diff years. like the gpu years and the very early asic time the PPN number  came true faster.

like 2 or 3 jumps.

He has a valid system of prediction.

⅔ is way better then a coin toss.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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December 12, 2015, 09:07:38 AM
 #20

Then he should call it a 'predictive" number, not keep refering to an instant PEAK number (which was NOT valid over a 24 hour period despite his bogus claim about that) as the current hashrate.

I'm no longer legendary just in my own mind!
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