Gigantic difficulty jump of the last few days (speculation)

[alh]

My thinking is that difficulty will continue to increase until the halving at least. We may not see +15% every time, but I think the days of difficulty decrease are over for a few months. I say this because I think the major ASIC vendors want to sell everything they can. They are worried about the impact that the halving will have on hardware prices, and they want to "sell while the selling is good". I think with their current Batch 8/9 design, Bitmain has whittled the cost down, and they'll continue to push hardware, adjusting the price down as they need to keep folks buying. When the demand for an $1100 4.6 TH miner dwindles, they'll find out who will pay $1000 for that same miner.  Rinse and repeat until it doesn't work anymore. This hardware they sell WILL get deployed and turned on. In some cases it will replace existing less efficient gear, but the net effect will be an ongoing increase in network hash rate. As long as the price of BTC doesn't stall (for too long), they can keep the game going. Difficulty is irrelevant to them, it's all about the price of the hardware, and how much they can push out the door in the next few months.

Come May/June/July, we'll see what happens, but until then, it's "sell baby sell" for any and all of the ASIC vendors.

It's not clear what the benefits are for any of their customers, certainly NOT the home/hobby miner. This feels distinctly different from a year ago, when there wasn't a mad rush to sell everything possible.  I think it is driven by the price of BTC. As BTC price rises, that pushes network hash rate, which then spurs difficulty increases.

[BitHodler]

My thinking is that difficulty will continue to increase until the halving at least. We may not see +15% every time, but I think the days of difficulty decrease are over for a few months. I say this because I think the major ASIC vendors want to sell everything they can. They are worried about the impact that the halving will have on hardware prices, and they want to "sell while the selling is good". I think with their current Batch 8/9 design, Bitmain has whittled the cost down, and they'll continue to push hardware, adjusting the price down as they need to keep folks buying. When the demand for an $1100 4.6 TH miner dwindles, they'll find out who will pay $1000 for that same miner.  Rinse and repeat until it doesn't work anymore. This hardware they sell WILL get deployed and turned on. In some cases it will replace existing less efficient gear, but the net effect will be an ongoing increase in network hash rate. As long as the price of BTC doesn't stall (for too long), they can keep the game going. Difficulty is irrelevant to them, it's all about the price of the hardware, and how much they can push out the door in the next few months.

Come May/June/July, we'll see what happens, but until then, it's "sell baby sell" for any and all of the ASIC vendors.

It's not clear what the benefits are for any of their customers, certainly NOT the home/hobby miner. This feels distinctly different from a year ago, when there wasn't a mad rush to sell everything possible.  I think it is driven by the price of BTC. As BTC price rises, that pushes network hash rate, which then spurs difficulty increases.

If the price keeps increasing and increasing then we will continue to see the difficulty break record after record.

I do however agree with you that it will not rise with big (+10%) steps each adjustment period.

Seeing the difficulty go higher and higher means that miners are making some decent profits at the current price or they are just hoarding coins to sell at a later moment. That is also possible.

[Searing]

My thinking is that difficulty will continue to increase until the halving at least. We may not see +15% every time, but I think the days of difficulty decrease are over for a few months. I say this because I think the major ASIC vendors want to sell everything they can. They are worried about the impact that the halving will have on hardware prices, and they want to "sell while the selling is good". I think with their current Batch 8/9 design, Bitmain has whittled the cost down, and they'll continue to push hardware, adjusting the price down as they need to keep folks buying. When the demand for an $1100 4.6 TH miner dwindles, they'll find out who will pay $1000 for that same miner.  Rinse and repeat until it doesn't work anymore. This hardware they sell WILL get deployed and turned on. In some cases it will replace existing less efficient gear, but the net effect will be an ongoing increase in network hash rate. As long as the price of BTC doesn't stall (for too long), they can keep the game going. Difficulty is irrelevant to them, it's all about the price of the hardware, and how much they can push out the door in the next few months.

Come May/June/July, we'll see what happens, but until then, it's "sell baby sell" for any and all of the ASIC vendors.

It's not clear what the benefits are for any of their customers, certainly NOT the home/hobby miner. This feels distinctly different from a year ago, when there wasn't a mad rush to sell everything possible.  I think it is driven by the price of BTC. As BTC price rises, that pushes network hash rate, which then spurs difficulty increases.

If the price keeps increasing and increasing then we will continue to see the difficulty break record after record.

I do however agree with you that it will not rise with big (+10%) steps each adjustment period.

Seeing the difficulty go higher and higher means that miners are making some decent profits at the current price or they are just hoarding coins to sell at a later moment. That is also possible.

Ah...but don't discount 'reality' in this equation.......silly hairless primate monkey that we humans are we like to throw 'poo' virtual or otherwise

For example

Could be from these links

https://www.google.com/search?q=cryptsy+office&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

http://bitcoinnewschannel.com/2016/01/09/paul-vern-cryptsys-ceo-seems-to-have-flown-to-china/

That the head of Cryptsy is in China and the main office is kaput...this could end badly Thus wait for the FUD/press will be thrilled/drama to unfold

add to that the btc core devs and such getting into another spat....and say china 'trying' at least to impose ''reforms" on BTC regulation etc again

to control the flow of $$$ shooting out of the country and we could be looking at 'cheap coin' again ...ie 250 usd

and of course in this thread...the rise further.... massively lets say..... in BTC difficulty continues to grow and to accelerate



bitcoin:  The wheel of FUD goes round and round

[Lutzow]

My thinking is that difficulty will continue to increase until the halving at least. We may not see +15% every time, but I think the days of difficulty decrease are over for a few months. I say this because I think the major ASIC vendors want to sell everything they can. They are worried about the impact that the halving will have on hardware prices, and they want to "sell while the selling is good". I think with their current Batch 8/9 design, Bitmain has whittled the cost down, and they'll continue to push hardware, adjusting the price down as they need to keep folks buying. When the demand for an $1100 4.6 TH miner dwindles, they'll find out who will pay $1000 for that same miner.  Rinse and repeat until it doesn't work anymore. This hardware they sell WILL get deployed and turned on. In some cases it will replace existing less efficient gear, but the net effect will be an ongoing increase in network hash rate. As long as the price of BTC doesn't stall (for too long), they can keep the game going. Difficulty is irrelevant to them, it's all about the price of the hardware, and how much they can push out the door in the next few months.

Come May/June/July, we'll see what happens, but until then, it's "sell baby sell" for any and all of the ASIC vendors.

It's not clear what the benefits are for any of their customers, certainly NOT the home/hobby miner. This feels distinctly different from a year ago, when there wasn't a mad rush to sell everything possible.  I think it is driven by the price of BTC. As BTC price rises, that pushes network hash rate, which then spurs difficulty increases.

If the price keeps increasing and increasing then we will continue to see the difficulty break record after record.

I do however agree with you that it will not rise with big (+10%) steps each adjustment period.

Seeing the difficulty go higher and higher means that miners are making some decent profits at the current price or they are just hoarding coins to sell at a later moment. That is also possible.

With the bitcoin price staying above the $400 mark, older miners are operating which increases the hashpower which in turn increases the difficulties. The only ones who will have a profit in the mining industries are the vendors themselves.

[Bitsaurus]

Difficulty is doing it's last ramp up before the halving.  Anything new that hasn't made it's ROI by then will most likely fail so it's a final push before 50% less income (gross).

[QuintLeo]

What is scary is if someone big decides that Cryptocoin has become a big enough niche to get involved.

 Can you picture an AMD cpu line with a small ASIC miner imbedded, instead of or perhaps in addition to the GPU from the A-series?

 They keep having more transistors available, and not a lot of options on what to DO with them.....

[Amph]

Difficulty is doing it's last ramp up before the halving.  Anything new that hasn't made it's ROI by then will most likely fail so it's a final push before 50% less income (gross).

i doubt, there is plenty of margin for the diff to increase again

not sure why many thing that miners have reached their profit, they still have plenty of room with the S7 is not even funny, diff can almost double before the halving, 200B is not so off from reality..

[Mastsetad]

The hashing power has dropped a lot since the price drop. It is very elastic to the bitcoin price.

[Lutzow]

The hashing power has dropped a lot since the price drop. It is very elastic to the bitcoin price.

Both S5 and S7 hashes are very cheap nowadays, but despite the higher monthly ROI NOW investors should think about what will happen after a few months. Will it be profitable still or what. I'm seeing S4 to be unprofitable putting S5 to the edge (probably on a tipping point) come halving time.

[QuintLeo]

S5 will be unprofitable BEFORE the halfing unless you have VERY VERY cheap or free electric, or are treating it as a space heater (effectively free electric).
SP20 will last a LITTLE longer than the S5 due to it's undervolt capabilities.

[skuser]

The hashing power has dropped a lot since the price drop. It is very elastic to the bitcoin price.

Not true anymore. Brutal growth in last 24 hours again. As if another 50 PHs have been added on top of previous record peaks...

[QuintLeo]

Seems like there's a drop for about a week right around the time Bitmain starts shipping a batch of S7s.....

.... then it goes back up again and then some.

[Amph]

The hashing power has dropped a lot since the price drop. It is very elastic to the bitcoin price.

there was another increase of around 10%, it was 103B now 113B, i would say that an average of 10% per month, is what is expected until the next value increase

[talks_cheep]

The hashing power has dropped a lot since the price drop. It is very elastic to the bitcoin price.

there was another increase of around 10%, it was 103B now 113B, i would say that an average of 10% per month, is what is expected until the next value increase

More like 20% increase a month. Although the current cycle indicates less than 10% increase, prolly due to Bitmain shipping delayed until Jan 20th.

[Amph]

The hashing power has dropped a lot since the price drop. It is very elastic to the bitcoin price.

there was another increase of around 10%, it was 103B now 113B, i would say that an average of 10% per month, is what is expected until the next value increase

More like 20% increase a month. Although the current cycle indicates less than 10% increase, prolly due to Bitmain shipping delayed until Jan 20th.

so the average must be 15% then, miners will not add more unit if they see the price tanking, that's is sure

[Lutzow]

The hashing power has dropped a lot since the price drop. It is very elastic to the bitcoin price.

there was another increase of around 10%, it was 103B now 113B, i would say that an average of 10% per month, is what is expected until the next value increase

More like 20% increase a month. Although the current cycle indicates less than 10% increase, prolly due to Bitmain shipping delayed until Jan 20th.

so the average must be 15% then, miners will not add more unit if they see the price tanking, that's is sure

Prices are getting lower and that is because people are getting out of the mining industry. But despite of this, Bitmain/ASICS still keep on selling new hardware. Which will keep on increasing the difficulty as we head towards the bitcoin halving. Less demands and high supply brings the prices further down.

[Yaunfitda]

The hashing power has dropped a lot since the price drop. It is very elastic to the bitcoin price.

there was another increase of around 10%, it was 103B now 113B, i would say that an average of 10% per month, is what is expected until the next value increase

More like 20% increase a month. Although the current cycle indicates less than 10% increase, prolly due to Bitmain shipping delayed until Jan 20th.

so the average must be 15% then, miners will not add more unit if they see the price tanking, that's is sure

Prices are getting lower and that is because people are getting out of the mining industry. But despite of this, Bitmain/ASICS still keep on selling new hardware. Which will keep on increasing the difficulty as we head towards the bitcoin halving. Less demands and high supply brings the prices further down.

The supply will be lowered after the halving, but will the demand rises at that time? The bitcoin network cannot cope with 7 transactions per second.