Is there any chance the fee will rise to replace block subsidy?

[Decoded]

Of course. I think the fee will rise straight after the halving, but after bitcoin doubles in price, then the fees will return to their current standard.

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[larem]

Of course. I think the fee will rise straight after the halving, but after bitcoin doubles in price, then the fees will return to their current standard.

So many people think bitcoin is magically going to double in price because of the halving. If this were true, why is every investor in the world not all-in on it?

[franky1]

ok lets give this question another bash

current fee=0.0001
1mb block = potentially 4000 tx a block =0.4tx fee total bonus potential (ftbp)

in 2016 bitcoin reward will 12.5btc and block limit will be 2mb (0.8tx ftbp)
the fee will decrease to 0.00001000 because bitcoin price hits $1000 and it needs to bring the fee down to roughly 1cent+ not 10cent+
4 years later 6.25block reward and block limit 8mb (0.32tx ftbp) - note it would be 3.2btc if tx fee stayed at 0.00010000
4 years later 3.125block reward and block limit of 16mb(0.64tx ftbp)
4 years later 1.5625block reward and block limit of 32mb (1.28tx ftbp)
4 years later 0.78125block reward and block limit of 32mb (1.28tx ftbp)
4 years later 0.390625block reward and block limit of 32mb (1.28tx ftbp)

so in 2028 the transaction fee potential will be nearly on par with reward, whilst allowing for progressive block size limit rising in previous years to a max of 32mb and keeping tx fee below 10cents (presuming bitcoin is below $10,000 to not require going down to 0.00000100)

in 2032 the transaction fee becomes more important than the block reward.

right now transaction fee's should not even be necessary as a payoff.. but more so to get people used to the fact that transactions cost a few cents.. that way by paying a few cents.. there wont be any shocks as its a standard practice.

there is NO REASON to raise the fee to cost more than 10cents.. EVER!!.. and it should not be an argument we have to have.. the only time tx fee's become important is well over a decades time. so not something to worry about now

[Marketstar]

Of course, When something goes, something comes. The fees will probably have to rise to match the missing bitcoin, or to make up about half of it. That's a big problem that we face.

People say this but not necessarily. It's all an open market. If people are still mining with the current fees, it will stay as-is. If they stop mining blocks, people will raise fees.

Fully agree with you.

[johnyj]

Of course. I think the fee will rise straight after the halving, but after bitcoin doubles in price, then the fees will return to their current standard.

So many people think bitcoin is magically going to double in price because of the halving. If this were true, why is every investor in the world not all-in on it?

Any investment involves risk, there are so many technical and political uncertainty in bitcoin. But I think by now most of the agile investors already hold bitcoin

Theoretically, bitcoin is destined to double in value every 4 years due to lower and lower new coin supply each year. And if you consider the fact that fiat money just get more and more, and user base is going to grow, this performance is guaranteed

If the value doubles every 4 years, and block subsidy cut by half every 4 years, the fiat income for miners will not change. However, due to newer and newer mining technology, the difficulty raise caused by mining competition will dwarf the effect of reward halving (reward having have the same effect as difficulty doubling, which can happen in a couple of months when a new generation of chips come on line). And we all know that difficulty increase does not impact the fee, but raise the coin value