It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket.

[smoothie]

I'll throw in my 2 cents.

I think a good model of the bitcoin price is like a ticking bomb. Any day, we might hear that Reddit will accept bitcoins, or some other big business that BitPay is quietly working out a deal with. Or similarly that some very wealthy investor decides to take a chance and buy $500,000 USD of bitcoin.

I for one, would like to see more indicators that track various aspects of the "network effect" (not saying there aren't any right now).

I think that is how a lot of people feel. The "right" thing to do is to buy in and just forget about the market. Come back in a year and reap your rewards. But that is investment, and we all know that bitcoin is a good investment. But as speculators, we can't help but be myopic about the short term. What if my $11 buy in turns to $5. Then I will be sad for 6 months. Should I just sell at $13 and hope it falls to $10 soon? blah blah blah

I'm going to do what Billionaire Jim Rogers says he does "I wait until all I have to do is go over there and pick up the money (easy). Until then I do nothing."

Once opportunity presents itself you will know. Until then, do nothing.

Right now is not the time to buy bitcoin. Most developments and news has been priced in.

Just my input though...

[gmiwenht]

It may not be the time to buy, but does that mean it is the time to sell?

[Yuhfhrh]

It may not be the time to buy, but does that mean it is the time to sell?

Its definitely not time to sell. People hearing about bitcoin from wordpress/halving should soon have some cash flowing in. On another note, google trends is still doing well:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2012%2012m&cmpt=q

[Kupsi]

Right now is not the time to buy bitcoin. Most developments and news has been priced in.

New people discover Bitcoin every day...

[Technomage]

There have been some very promising developments and news articles and what I like the most, the overall quality and tone of news articles has been improving significantly. People are getting more interested and people who dismissed it before are taking a second look. Bitcoin adoption has had a lot of rejection for many reasons but that is changing. Personally I feel we're getting close to an explosion that will surpass June 2011. That seemed far-fetched to me some time ago but right now I actually believe it's possible.

What we're seeing now is somewhat similar to the period of stability in early 2012. We were around the $5 area for a long time. Now we've been between $8 and $15 for a long time and recently between $10 and $12 specifically. Within a few months I believe we could be seeing a massive breakout. Of course I could be dead wrong but this is just my honest feeling at the moment.

[Yuhfhrh]

There have been some very promising developments and news articles and what I like the most, the overall quality and tone of news articles has been improving significantly. People are getting more interested and people who dismissed it before are taking a second look. Bitcoin adoption has had a lot of rejection for many reasons but that is changing. Personally I feel we're getting close to an explosion that will surpass June 2011. That seemed far-fetched to me some time ago but right now I actually believe it's possible.

What we're seeing now is somewhat similar to the period of stability in early 2012. We were around the $5 area for a long time. Now we've been between $8 and $15 for a long time and recently between $10 and $12 specifically. Within a few months I believe we could be seeing a massive breakout. Of course I could be dead wrong but this is just my honest feeling at the moment.

You're not alone in your thinking 

[glub0x]

There have been some very promising developments and news articles and what I like the most, the overall quality and tone of news articles has been improving significantly. People are getting more interested and people who dismissed it before are taking a second look. Bitcoin adoption has had a lot of rejection for many reasons but that is changing. Personally I feel we're getting close to an explosion that will surpass June 2011. That seemed far-fetched to me some time ago but right now I actually believe it's possible.

What we're seeing now is somewhat similar to the period of stability in early 2012. We were around the $5 area for a long time. Now we've been between $8 and $15 for a long time and recently between $10 and $12 specifically. Within a few months I believe we could be seeing a massive breakout. Of course I could be dead wrong but this is just my honest feeling at the moment.

You're not alone in your thinking  

opening my online news website i got this


More fuel, then look at the direction of the rocket!

[Herodes]

It seems oddly familiar....big change predicted to be coming...everyone holds their breath and then.......

Something less than the usual.

I keep looking back to last year where everyone expected a HUGE price break after The Goodwife did an entire episode about bitcoin and finding Satoshi.  We built for 2-3 months expecting something amazing...and then...nothing.  What followed was a 30-40%ish price fall (Had to check numbers since I'm tipsy and prone to fudging)

You may have found a pattern there. If everyone expects the price to go up, but it never does, it either flatlines or decrease, then you can profit from this in your future investments!!!

[thezerg]

Its behaving as I expected.  The blockchain halving event won't put significant pressure on the price for for some time -- there are just too few coins involved relative to the daily txn size on Mt Gox.  However if we assume that the # of coins being sequestered (i.e. taken off the exchange either for long term investment or private exchange use) remains roughly the same then there will clearly be a slight shift to the demand side.  But this shift is easily met by speculators taking profits since the price remains pretty good.  The result is that a week to a few months from now you end up with a LOT of speculative fiat on the exchanges and so some good news will trigger a cascade of momentum buying :-).  The longer the price hangs around at this level (or slowly rises) the bigger the final pop.

[Cluster2k]

"It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket."

Everyone?  No.  I didn't, because I don't see any reason for the price to 'rocket' upwards right now.  If anything there may be pressure for the price to drop as people eventually receive ASIC orders and need to pay off their new hardware.

[smoothie]

It may not be the time to buy, but does that mean it is the time to sell?

You can't read can you? I said that the strategy is to "do nothing" until the opportunity presents itself.

[smoothie]

It may not be the time to buy, but does that mean it is the time to sell?

Its definitely not time to sell. People hearing about bitcoin from wordpress/halving should soon have some cash flowing in. On another note, google trends is still doing well:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2012%2012m&cmpt=q

Hoarding has kept the price high. Not new investors.

[smoothie]

Right now is not the time to buy bitcoin. Most developments and news has been priced in.

New people discover Bitcoin every day...

Not every person that discovers bitcoin just goes willy nilly and sells all their assets to buy bitcoin though.

[Yuhfhrh]

It may not be the time to buy, but does that mean it is the time to sell?

Its definitely not time to sell. People hearing about bitcoin from wordpress/halving should soon have some cash flowing in. On another note, google trends is still doing well:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2012%2012m&cmpt=q

Hoarding has kept the price high. Not new investors.

New investors hoard.

[smoothie]

"It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket."

Everyone?  No.  I didn't, because I don't see any reason for the price to 'rocket' upwards right now.  If anything there may be pressure for the price to drop as people eventually receive ASIC orders and need to pay off their new hardware.

This ^. Don't think that people who bought ASICs will hoard bitcoins. They will sell immediately to recoup hardware costs and to possibly buy more ASIC hardware to get a bigger piece of the total hash rate.

[smoothie]

It may not be the time to buy, but does that mean it is the time to sell?

Its definitely not time to sell. People hearing about bitcoin from wordpress/halving should soon have some cash flowing in. On another note, google trends is still doing well:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2012%2012m&cmpt=q

Hoarding has kept the price high. Not new investors.

New investors hoard.

LOL okay please entertain me with your theory.

How does this work and what proof do you have that this IS the case?

 

[adamstgBit]

"It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket."

Everyone?  No.  I didn't, because I don't see any reason for the price to 'rocket' upwards right now.  If anything there may be pressure for the price to drop as people eventually receive ASIC orders and need to pay off their new hardware.

people who bought ASICs paid in full, and have been living without this money for months, i really do not understand why so many people think miner will cash out like crazy once they start mining on ASICs.

the way i see it, miner feel unsure if they will be as profitable as they are now when ASICs come out, add to that bitcoin price holding higher then its ever been before, so if anything they are selling for a profit now.

[smoothie]

"It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket."

Everyone?  No.  I didn't, because I don't see any reason for the price to 'rocket' upwards right now.  If anything there may be pressure for the price to drop as people eventually receive ASIC orders and need to pay off their new hardware.

people who bought ASICs paid in full, and have been living without this money for months, i really do not understand why so many people think miner will cash out like crazy once they start mining on ASICs.

the way i see it, miner feel unsure if they will be as profitable as they are now when ASICs come out, add to that bitcoin price holding higher then its ever been before, so if anything they are selling for a profit now.

Maybe because they thought they would be delivered in October and counted on them being on time so they are in need of the capital they blew on a product that does not exist. People have bills and lives to live. Loaning BFL large sums of money could do that to anyone. People will sell once they mine. I assure you this is the case.

[adamstgBit]

"It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket."

Everyone?  No.  I didn't, because I don't see any reason for the price to 'rocket' upwards right now.  If anything there may be pressure for the price to drop as people eventually receive ASIC orders and need to pay off their new hardware.

people who bought ASICs paid in full, and have been living without this money for months, i really do not understand why so many people think miner will cash out like crazy once they start mining on ASICs.

the way i see it, miner feel unsure if they will be as profitable as they are now when ASICs come out, add to that bitcoin price holding higher then its ever been before, so if anything they are selling for a profit now.

Maybe because they thought they would be delivered in October and counted on them being on time so they are in need of the capital they blew on a product that does not exist. People have bills and lives to live. Loaning BFL large sums of money could do that to anyone. People will sell once they mine. I assure you this is the case.

But they are mining now, why wait for ASICs to come out, why not just sell some now?

[foggyb]

Smoothie, if there was someone who knew what was going to happen for sure, they WOULD NOT TELL A SOUL. Unless of course they didn't think they'd turn out to be right.

Tell me Smoothie, do you doubt yourself?