Poll: Bitcoin's price after the halving

[gatecoin]

Assuming there is no major news to affect bitcoin's price, there are still a number of factors to consider when trying to predict the effect the block reward's halvening will have on bitcoin's price.

We want you to vote: What do you think will happen to bitcoin's price this time around?
The poll is open for the next 6 days. Results will be announced after the poll is closed.

UPDATE: I've edited the poll options to not limit changes to a specific percentage figure.

[Amph]

ehm, we are already increasing, if we keep this rate we should already account this as "the effect of the halving on the value"

because otherwise there are the chances that we reach $1k slowly and then at the halving you have something like $1050, and because of this you think that the value increased only by 1/20, which is not true

because the effect of the halving does not come true only on the date of the halving

[LiteCoinGuy]

3%? that is nothing in bitcoin

[justspare]

At the rate that we are increasing, I think that by the time of halving, the price of Bitcoin will be around $1000.

[7788bitcoin]

If there are no big unexpected incidents, my guess is 1BTC = $800 in July 2016.

[gatecoin]

ehm, we are already increasing, if we keep this rate we should already account this as "the effect of the halving on the value"

because otherwise there are the chances that we reach $1k slowly and then at the halving you have something like $1050, and because of this you think that the value increased only by 1/20, which is not true

because the effect of the halving does not come true only on the date of the halving

With this line of thinking, your vote should then be "price remains within +/-3%" because nobody knows if this uptrend is going to continue through 2016 (I, for one, certainly hope it will) or if price will remain around the $450 level. So, without knowing how much the price will be, the poll serves as a gauge to the general sentiment that the bitcoin community has over the expected halving of the block reward.

[gatecoin]

3%? that is nothing in bitcoin

Remember the bitcoin price lull in June 2015 when BTC was struggling to break through $250? Bitcoin Volatility Index at that time was about 1%... Even today, the volatility index is at around 3-4%. In any case, the percentage is just an arbitrary figure.

[mrcashking]

The poll is limited to a set of answers i guess. The price could go increase for the long term this time cause there is no sudden bumps and falls and i assume people re getting into it slowly and for some longer time span .
Seeing the last few days i am expecting the price to be 550 around the new years.

3%? that is nothing in bitcoin

exctly .

[LuckyYOU]

3% is really low amount to strive for. Bitcoin is already growing in value everyday which is around 3% already.
I think the price would go up way more than that. It has so much more potential than just 3%

[bf4btc]

My vote. Much higher. The world is not ready for 12.5 btc blocks.

[gatecoin]

3% is really low amount to strive for. Bitcoin is already growing in value everyday which is around 3% already.
I think the price would go up way more than that. It has so much more potential than just 3%

I've edited the poll options to exclude the percentage and just leave it at a general price movement

[1Referee]

We are already experiencing the effect that the halving has on the price. It will continue till the halving with a final peak somewhere before or after the halving. After that when things cool down, the price will come down too. I believe we can do an attempt to break through $1000 without much effort in mid 2016, but the real challenge will be the dumps that will follow. How deep will the price tank before it recovers.

After when things cooled down, we won't see much difference as when there isn't a block halving upcomming within a year. It will be a bumpy ride with from time to time very slow price movements, and from time to time a rally to keep you guys happy.

[zetaray]

I think the uptrend will continue after the halving then follow by a small correction. It is a tough call, no one can predict what will happen.

[Mickeyb]

We are already experiencing the effect that the halving has on the price. It will continue till the halving with a final peak somewhere before or after the halving. After that when things cool down, the price will come down too. I believe we can do an attempt to break through $1000 without much effort in mid 2016, but the real challenge will be the dumps that will follow. How deep will the price tank before it recovers.

After when things cooled down, we won't see much difference as when there isn't a block halving upcomming within a year. It will be a bumpy ride with from time to time very slow price movements, and from time to time a rally to keep you guys happy.

Yes we are already experiencing effects, I agree with this. Current growth is fueled by expected halving. We are seeing positive pressure on the price and huge volumes constantly for about last 10 weeks.

I predict that we will continue in this trend all the way up to halving and we will have a new ATH around the halving!

[NorrisK]

Price Will be top high prior to the halving because People expect something magical to happen.

When they realize This is nog the case, price Will slowly move down again.

[Amph]

ehm, we are already increasing, if we keep this rate we should already account this as "the effect of the halving on the value"

because otherwise there are the chances that we reach $1k slowly and then at the halving you have something like $1050, and because of this you think that the value increased only by 1/20, which is not true

because the effect of the halving does not come true only on the date of the halving

With this line of thinking, your vote should then be "price remains within +/-3%" because nobody knows if this uptrend is going to continue through 2016 (I, for one, certainly hope it will) or if price will remain around the $450 level. So, without knowing how much the price will be, the poll serves as a gauge to the general sentiment that the bitcoin community has over the expected halving of the block reward.

i was thinking that you should change the poll option to something like in range, like 0%-10%, 10%-25% etc..., or simply put standard %, like 10%, 25, 33 etc...

[zimmah]

I dont think the effect of the halving will be immediatly obvious, it takes a bit of time for the market to adjust to the new supply.      
Most large scale miners do sell nearly constantly because they need to pay huge amounts in electricity which they can only cover with the Bitcoin they mine, so while all those miners will only have half the amount of Bitcoin to sell now there are still other Bitcoin on exchanges.        
Note that the Bitcoin being traded on exchanged does not only come from miners directly but also from people who previously had bitcoin. There are still many whales, and if some of them decide the halving is a good time to sell a % of their holding we might even end up having the selling pressure increase for a moment. It could even be day traders who cause a momentary increase in pressure. Or maybe it's just that whales begin purchasing more at shops that accept Bitcoin, while not rebuying their Bitcoin, which leads to the shops increasing selling pressure.
In the long run though, the selling pressure should decrease, and it will be noticeable. The question is not if, but when this causes a rise. And if the rise will be swift or slow.        
So far those Bitcoin has a tendency to drop slowly and rise quickly. So I guess some months after the halving Bitcoin will suddenly increase in value by one or two orders of magnitude.

[chmick]

I dont think the effect of the halving will be immediatly obvious, it takes a bit of time for the market to adjust to the new supply.      
Most large scale miners do sell nearly constantly because they need to pay huge amounts in electricity which they can only cover with the Bitcoin they mine, so while all those miners will only have half the amount of Bitcoin to sell now there are still other Bitcoin on exchanges.        
Note that the Bitcoin being traded on exchanged does not only come from miners directly but also from people who previously had bitcoin. There are still many whales, and if some of them decide the halving is a good time to sell a % of their holding we might even end up having the selling pressure increase for a moment. It could even be day traders who cause a momentary increase in pressure. Or maybe it's just that whales begin purchasing more at shops that accept Bitcoin, while not rebuying their Bitcoin, which leads to the shops increasing selling pressure.
In the long run though, the selling pressure should decrease, and it will be noticeable. The question is not if, but when this causes a rise. And if the rise will be swift or slow.        
So far those Bitcoin has a tendency to drop slowly and rise quickly. So I guess some months after the halving Bitcoin will suddenly increase in value by one or two orders of magnitude.

It's not after it's before the halving .

The market (traders, miners) will anticipate the raise due to the halving . In fact I think they are already doing it , by buying and mining , that explain the price raise and the increase in hashpower (plus the new hardware on the market).

Plus the fact than big player (like the one producing mining device ) won't let the profitability of the hardware drop (directly related to the price they can sell the hardware). So they will help to keep the price up . IMHO we can expect the 600$ per BTC .

[Karartma1]

My vote. Much higher. The world is not ready for 12.5 btc blocks.

It's going to be interesting for sure because as you say I agree we are not ready for that yet. It might take time to adjust for it. I would really ask to big miners how they feel about having half reward for the same price. But I think I know the answer.

[randy8777]

i think a price of $1000 after the halving is what will happen. at that time there will be a huge load of volatility that will drive non bitcoin traders and bitcoin holders nuts. i think we'll see the price go up and down with 10-20% in the weeks after the halving.