I forced the 10 day high last night. What do you think about that?

[molecular]

So even though the price has been drifting higher ever since the WordPress announcement, you seem to think that your 700btc purchase is the reason it went up during the past 24 hrs?

Don't overestimate your effect on the market

It was clear we were going to break out of that 12.5 to 12.7 range we had been trading sideways in for roughly 5 days. It was less clearer which way.

He might not be responsible for the breakout and subsequent rally, but you could say he decided on the timing.

Also: he made quite a killing.

[odolvlobo]

It was clear we were going to break out of that 12.5 to 12.7 range we had been trading sideways in for roughly 5 days. It was less clearer which way.

I hear something like this all the time: "It has been trading sideways and it is going to break out, either up or down" Well, DUH! Of course, it is going to "break out" after trading sideways. There is no other possibility.

[molecular]

It was clear we were going to break out of that 12.5 to 12.7 range we had been trading sideways in for roughly 5 days. It was less clearer which way.

I hear something like this all the time: "It has been trading sideways and it is going to break out, either up or down" Well, DUH! Of course, it is going to "break out" after trading sideways. There is no other possibility.

It implies something useful, though: when it breaks out, it will move in that direction with considerable momentum.

[urwhatuknow]

Illiquid markets, such as Bitcoin are easy prey to manipulation.
The principle is to draw attention by buying a pretty big quantity (compared to the daily number being bought and sold) and once this attention is drawn, more and more people will start buying trying to jump on the bandwagon and trying not to miss the train.
This is on a larger scale exactly what happened in the summer of 2011 when the price of a BTC went all the way up to 30 USD a piece.
Such phenomenons normally end up with a massive selloff, (exactly what happened in the above mentioned example when the price went down to 3 usd, losing about 90% of its value) where a lot of late joiners got burned, lost lots of money and abandoned the game saying it's rigged, when the only thing that was rigged was their intelligence.
Rallies and inevitable subsequent bubble bursts aren't good for bitcoin.
The movement we experienced in the last 2 days (about 7% up) isn't good for bitcoin.
What we should need and hope for is a slow movement up, of about say 1-2% each week, due to a growing number of bitcoin adopters and to the fact that this adopters demand SLIGHTLY outpaces the number of bitcoins being sold by miners and people that accept payments in bitcoin but then need to translate those into fiat money.
Everything else should be seen as a danger for bitcoin and not cheered as most people do.
Rally is bad, not good!
We all need to understand that or we will keep being a bunch of goofy beginners easy prey of speculators  

[vokain]

Illiquid markets, such as Bitcoin are easy prey to manipulation.
The principle is to draw attention by buying a pretty big quantity (compared to the daily number being bought and sold) and once this attention is drawn, more and more people will start buying trying to jump on the bandwagon and trying not to miss the train.
This is on a larger scale exactly what happened in the summer of 2011 when the price of a BTC went all the way up to 30 USD a piece.
Such phenomenons normally end up with a massive selloff, (exactly what happened in the above mentioned example when the price went down to 3 usd, losing about 90% of its value) where a lot of late joiners got burned, lost lots of money and abandoned the game saying it's rigged, when the only thing that was rigged was their intelligence.
Rallies and inevitable subsequent bubble bursts aren't good for bitcoin.
The movement we experienced in the last 2 days (about 7% up) isn't good for bitcoin.
What we should need and hope for is a slow movement up, of about say 1-2% each week, due to a growing number of bitcoin adopters and to the fact that this adopters demand SLIGHTLY outpaces the number of bitcoins being sold.
Everything else should be seen as a danger for bitcoin and not cheered as most people do.
Rally is bad, not good!
We all need to understand that or we will keep being a bunch of goofy beginners easy prey of speculators  

BTFD

[dancingnancy]

Illiquid markets, such as Bitcoin are easy prey to manipulation.
The principle is to draw attention by buying a pretty big quantity (compared to the daily number being bought and sold) and once this attention is drawn, more and more people will start buying trying to jump on the bandwagon and trying not to miss the train.
This is on a larger scale exactly what happened in the summer of 2011 when the price of a BTC went all the way up to 30 USD a piece.
Such phenomenons normally end up with a massive selloff, (exactly what happened in the above mentioned example when the price went down to 3 usd, losing about 90% of its value) where a lot of late joiners got burned, lost lots of money and abandoned the game saying it's rigged, when the only thing that was rigged was their intelligence.
Rallies and inevitable subsequent bubble bursts aren't good for bitcoin.
The movement we experienced in the last 2 days (about 7% up) isn't good for bitcoin.
What we should need and hope for is a slow movement up, of about say 1-2% each week, due to a growing number of bitcoin adopters and to the fact that this adopters demand SLIGHTLY outpaces the number of bitcoins being sold by miners and people that accept payments in bitcoin but then need to translate those into fiat money.
Everything else should be seen as a danger for bitcoin and not cheered as most people do.
Rally is bad, not good!
We all need to understand that or we will keep being a bunch of goofy beginners easy prey of speculators   

We have essentially been consolidating for several weeks now.  Had to move at some point.  Just dollar cost average into BTC and stop looking at the chart.

[odolvlobo]

Illiquid markets, such as Bitcoin are easy prey to manipulation.
The principle is to draw attention by buying a pretty big quantity (compared to the daily number being bought and sold) and once this attention is drawn, more and more people will start buying trying to jump on the bandwagon and trying not to miss the train.

While that may be "the principle", I don't believe that it actually works. Two reasons: 1. There is no way to know if or how your transactions actually affect other people. 2. You don't know if you are the one being manipulated or not.

[Elwar]

This is pure entertainment when people start jumping up and down like little girls because the bitcoin price goes up.

Next stop: Sobbing, bitching, whiny, confused stage.


"Why did the price fall?  "

... because someone was smart enough to sell high. 

Best time to buy is when you start to see questions such as "is this the end of Bitcoin?"

[molecular]

Illiquid markets, such as Bitcoin are easy prey to manipulation.
The principle is to draw attention by buying a pretty big quantity (compared to the daily number being bought and sold) and once this attention is drawn, more and more people will start buying trying to jump on the bandwagon and trying not to miss the train.
This is on a larger scale exactly what happened in the summer of 2011 when the price of a BTC went all the way up to 30 USD a piece.
Such phenomenons normally end up with a massive selloff, (exactly what happened in the above mentioned example when the price went down to 3 usd, losing about 90% of its value) where a lot of late joiners got burned, lost lots of money and abandoned the game saying it's rigged, when the only thing that was rigged was their intelligence.
Rallies and inevitable subsequent bubble bursts aren't good for bitcoin.
The movement we experienced in the last 2 days (about 7% up) isn't good for bitcoin.
What we should need and hope for is a slow movement up, of about say 1-2% each week, due to a growing number of bitcoin adopters and to the fact that this adopters demand SLIGHTLY outpaces the number of bitcoins being sold by miners and people that accept payments in bitcoin but then need to translate those into fiat money.
Everything else should be seen as a danger for bitcoin and not cheered as most people do.
Rally is bad, not good!
We all need to understand that or we will keep being a bunch of goofy beginners easy prey of speculators  

I disagree.

You are assuming that the price of bitcoin reflects (or should reflect) it's current usefulness as a medium of exchange for the bitcoin economy. That's only partly true (I'm guessing the price of a bitcoin would have to be 0.25 USD for the current supply to be able to "run" the current bitcoin economy).

A large part of bitcoins value comes from the expectation of future usefulness as a medium of exchange and it's usefulness as a store of wealth.

You cannot remove these large components because bitcoin is money and that's just part of that.

A 7% rally in bitcoin is not "bad for bitcoin". It might be annoying for the people using bitcoin as a medium of exchange because those fluctuations introduce pricing problems, but that just has to be accepted and worked around.

A 7% rally doesn't have to be "pump and dump" either. It can just be the case that the expectation of future usefulness has risen (due to some news) or speculators have adjusted their expectations for any number of other reasons.

A rally can be bad or good, depending on what's behind it.

[urwhatuknow]

Illiquid markets, such as Bitcoin are easy prey to manipulation.
The principle is to draw attention by buying a pretty big quantity (compared to the daily number being bought and sold) and once this attention is drawn, more and more people will start buying trying to jump on the bandwagon and trying not to miss the train.
This is on a larger scale exactly what happened in the summer of 2011 when the price of a BTC went all the way up to 30 USD a piece.
Such phenomenons normally end up with a massive selloff, (exactly what happened in the above mentioned example when the price went down to 3 usd, losing about 90% of its value) where a lot of late joiners got burned, lost lots of money and abandoned the game saying it's rigged, when the only thing that was rigged was their intelligence.
Rallies and inevitable subsequent bubble bursts aren't good for bitcoin.
The movement we experienced in the last 2 days (about 7% up) isn't good for bitcoin.
What we should need and hope for is a slow movement up, of about say 1-2% each week, due to a growing number of bitcoin adopters and to the fact that this adopters demand SLIGHTLY outpaces the number of bitcoins being sold by miners and people that accept payments in bitcoin but then need to translate those into fiat money.
Everything else should be seen as a danger for bitcoin and not cheered as most people do.
Rally is bad, not good!
We all need to understand that or we will keep being a bunch of goofy beginners easy prey of speculators  

I disagree.

You are assuming that the price of bitcoin reflects (or should reflect) it's current usefulness as a medium of exchange for the bitcoin economy. That's only partly true (I'm guessing the price of a bitcoin would have to be 0.25 USD for the current supply to be able to "run" the current bitcoin economy).

A large part of bitcoins value comes from the expectation of future usefulness as a medium of exchange and it's usefulness as a store of wealth.

You cannot remove these large components because bitcoin is money and that's just part of that.

A 7% rally in bitcoin is not "bad for bitcoin". It might be annoying for the people using bitcoin as a medium of exchange because those fluctuations introduce pricing problems, but that just has to be accepted and worked around.

A 7% rally doesn't have to be "pump and dump" either. It can just be the case that the expectation of future usefulness has risen (due to some news) or speculators have adjusted their expectations for any number of other reasons.

A rally can be bad or good, depending on what's behind it.

So, following your explanation about good and bad rallies, my question is:

1) Is this rally a good one or a bad one?

and consequentially

2) Will the price go below 12.5 usd in the next days or keep above 13?

[steamboat]

What's a CSV? Here are the peak transactions from my Mt.Gox history. Feel free to correlate this with the truth.

comma separated value.

Edit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comma-separated_values

[goldlyre]

In city of Shanghai where I live, an apartment suite of premium quality can be sold for 10 million Chinese Yuan which equivalents to US $1.6 million. If someone sells a suite of this kind (there are at least a couple thousands of them) and uses the money to invest into bitcoin, he can get 118+ thousands BTCs and thus enters into the World Top 10 Fortune List of Bitcoin.  

[cedivad]

In city of Shanghai where I live, an apartment suite of premium quality can be sold for 10 million Chinese Yuan which equivalents to US $1.6 million. If someone sells a suite of this kind (there are at least a couple thousands of them) and uses the money to invest into bitcoin, he can get 118+ thousands BTCs and thus enters into the World Top 10 Fortune List of Bitcoin.  

Ok, what's your point?

[Richy_T]

This is pure entertainment when people start jumping up and down like little girls because the bitcoin price goes up.

Next stop: Sobbing, bitching, whiny, confused stage.


"Why did the price fall?  "

... because someone was smart enough to sell high. 

It's all low right now

[Fjordbit]

In city of Shanghai where I live, an apartment suite of premium quality can be sold for 10 million Chinese Yuan which equivalents to US $1.6 million. If someone sells a suite of this kind (there are at least a couple thousands of them) and uses the money to invest into bitcoin, he can get 118+ thousands BTCs and thus enters into the World Top 10 Fortune List of Bitcoin.  

A buy of $1.6 million would only get you BTC86810.

[bitcoinbear]

In city of Shanghai where I live, an apartment suite of premium quality can be sold for 10 million Chinese Yuan which equivalents to US $1.6 million. If someone sells a suite of this kind (there are at least a couple thousands of them) and uses the money to invest into bitcoin, he can get 118+ thousands BTCs and thus enters into the World Top 10 Fortune List of Bitcoin.  

A buy of $1.6 million would only get you BTC86810.

It depends on how you do it. If you find a seller (or several sellers) with enough bitcoins then you could do it all otc for the current rate. If you try to do it o mt gox, you might not even get that many if people are able to pull their asks quick enough.

[adamstgBit]

In city of Shanghai where I live, an apartment suite of premium quality can be sold for 10 million Chinese Yuan which equivalents to US $1.6 million. If someone sells a suite of this kind (there are at least a couple thousands of them) and uses the money to invest into bitcoin, he can get 118+ thousands BTCs and thus enters into the World Top 10 Fortune List of Bitcoin.  

A buy of $1.6 million would only get you BTC86810.

It depends on how you do it. If you find a seller (or several sellers) with enough bitcoins then you could do it all otc for the current rate. If you try to do it o mt gox, you might not even get that many if people are able to pull their asks quick enough.

I Seriously doubt there is 1.6 million $ worth of BTC depth at current price on OTC, I doubt there is even 1/10th the depth that mtgox offers....

If you buy it slowly (6 months / ~555 coins a day) on Gox, you should be able to buy all your coins without pushing the price up that much...

[Fjordbit]

My post links to the depth on Mt Gox, that's how I got the number. But bitcoinbear is right about people pulling asks as you are buying, something that doesn't make sense to me because it should be atomic and immediate but Gox allows it to happen. Also, people can bid as you are buying in the hopes of flipping the coins, so this could also lead to less.

[michaelmclees]

Buying and selling is always easier said than done.  One of the fallacies that I see above is thinking that an OTC seller is going to neglect to calculate that if you were to buy on an exchange, you'd be facing increasing resistance to your buying.  So the OTC seller is going to split the difference, that way, you both win.

[bitcoinbear]

Buying and selling is always easier said than done.  One of the fallacies that I see above is thinking that an OTC seller is going to neglect to calculate that if you were to buy on an exchange, you'd be facing increasing resistance to your buying.  So the OTC seller is going to split the difference, that way, you both win.

If the exchange rate is 10 usd per btc, Al has 10 000 btc and Bob has 100 000 usd, by trading otc they both benefit. Al looks at the exchange and realizes the price would plummet if he tried to sell them all at once, leaving him with fewer usd than he would like, Bob looks at the exchange and realizes the price would skyrocket if he tried to buy them all at once, leaving him with fewer btc than he would like. So if they come to an agreement to exchange at the current rate off the exchange, then they both come out ahead.

Both the OTC seller and buyer are splitting the difference by using the current exchange price.