I forced the 10 day high last night. What do you think about that?

[gmiwenht]

I bought around 700 BTC at market price and drove the 10 day high to 12.75. I first had to sell BTC to get the money, and by the time I sold and bought, this market experiment cost me around 15 BTC in fees and personal losses. But... psychologically, it obviously had an effect on the market. By popping the 10 day plateau (and the 3 day post-halving uncertainty) I think it injected some short-term confidence in the market. When I wake up this morning I see a 12.93 high. Well, that wasn't me. But obviously it took off. And now we're around 12.85 and I've already covered my losses!

So surely this is a form of sentiment manipulation? I guess we cannot manipulate supply and demand, but we can manipulate emotions which drive them. Emotions are tightly wound around certain symbolic price points, so it would make sense that forcing the price above or below those price points (albeit artificially) could be a catalyst for real movement around those price points.

What do you think about this?

And what do you think would happen if we rally above 13.09?

[BitcoinINV]

Think you should post your CSV to prove it

[gmiwenht]

What's a CSV? Here are the peak transactions from my Mt.Gox history. Feel free to correlate this with the truth.

2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.03938522 BTC   672.42384362 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686511345] 9.84630509 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      9.84630509 BTC   672.46322884 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686511345] 9.84630509 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00400000 BTC   662.61692375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686466200] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      1.00000000 BTC   662.62092375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686466200] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00600000 BTC   661.62092375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686394076] 1.50000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      1.50000000 BTC   661.62692375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686394076] 1.50000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00040000 BTC   660.12692375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686306405] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      0.10000000 BTC   660.12732375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686306405] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00120000 BTC   660.02732375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686114763] 0.30000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      0.30000000 BTC   660.02852375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686114763] 0.30000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00032000 BTC   659.72852375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686076329] 0.08000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      0.08000000 BTC   659.72884375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686076329] 0.08000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00400000 BTC   659.64884375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686034419] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      1.00000000 BTC   659.65284375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686034419] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:05   Fee      0.00040000 BTC   658.65284375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685952342] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:05   In      0.10000000 BTC   658.65324375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685952342] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:05   Fee      0.11927640 BTC   658.55324375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685826248] 29.81910000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:05   In      29.81910000 BTC   658.67252015 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685826248] 29.81910000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:05   Fee      0.00404379 BTC   628.85342015 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685765158] 1.01094809 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:05   In      1.01094809 BTC   628.85746394 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685765158] 1.01094809 BTC at $12.75000

[evoorhees]

So even though the price has been drifting higher ever since the WordPress announcement, you seem to think that your 700btc purchase is the reason it went up during the past 24 hrs?

Don't overestimate your effect on the market

[foggyb]

[robocoin]

Well 700 BTC are not enough, but in general if you are the first who kicks off a massiv buy or dump, you'll surely get followers. I think thats not happening too seldom on Mt. Gox. Very risky investment strategy^^

[Spekulatius]

Post again when you've got 70000 BTC.

[gmiwenht]

So even though the price has been drifting higher ever since the WordPress announcement, you seem to think that your 700btc purchase is the reason it went up during the past 24 hrs?

Don't overestimate your effect on the market

Well, I started buying at 12.66. So yes, it was the reason it went up to 12.75, and it only took seconds to do so. I'm not claiming anything else about the past 24 hours. But in particular, could the past 12 hours have been a result of this initial jump?

I realize that this kind of volume represents a drop in the ocean on Mt.Gox, but is the psychological effect of High/Low price not volume-independent?

[DobZombie]

The ask price is now 12.94.

You still buyin up?

Didn't think so

[gmiwenht]

The ask price is now 12.94.

You still buyin up?

Didn't think so

Obviously not. My point is that maybe breaking a 10-day high provided psychological relief after the post-halving uncertainty, thus opening the floodgates for the subsequent buying volume.

[cedivad]

Thanks for the post, i'm now sure i want to wait to invest

[bitcoinbear]

The ask price is now 12.94.

You still buyin up?

Didn't think so

Obviously not. My point is that maybe breaking a 10-day high provided psychological relief after the post-halving uncertainty, thus opening the floodgates for the subsequent buying volume.

A ten day high is nothing for bitcoin. Now, if you could buy up past the all-time high (about 32 usd/btc, less than 3x what it is at now), that would be something to talk about.

[Fjordbit]

A ten day high is nothing for bitcoin. Now, if you could buy up past the all-time high (about 32 usd/btc, less than 3x what it is at now), that would be something to talk about.

That would only cost $1,366,236. No big deal 

[oakpacific]

Give some credits when credits are due, guys! Otherwise who would be brave enough to start a rally next time?

[smoothie]

OP TRANSLATION:" I peed and all the tides of the ocean changed because of my piss."

[Yuhfhrh]

OP TRANSLATION:" I peed and all the tides of the ocean changed because of my piss."

Couldn't have said it better myself 

But this very could have triggered a bot, which triggered a few other bots, which started the rally. Or it could have had no effect at all. Doesn't really matter because we don't have a time machine to compare the results.

[adamstgBit]

So even though the price has been drifting higher ever since the WordPress announcement, you seem to think that your 700btc purchase is the reason it went up during the past 24 hrs?

Don't overestimate your effect on the market

Don't underestimate the effect a rogue 700BTC market buy.

I believe OP 100%!

[JohnGalt]

Unless you can prove it wasn't a total coincidence, you really can't claim to have had any effect. A couple of weeks ago, I bought 10,000 LTC and it had no effect on the market at all as far as I can tell -- and LTC is far less liquid than BTC.

[smoothie]

This is pure entertainment when people start jumping up and down like little girls because the bitcoin price goes up.

Next stop: Sobbing, bitching, whiny, confused stage.


"Why did the price fall?  "

... because someone was smart enough to sell high. 

[klaus]

@smoothie

+1