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Author Topic: Solar Power Passes 1% Global Threshold  (Read 1160 times)
galdur (OP)
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December 17, 2015, 01:46:21 PM
 #1

June 12th, 2015 by Guest Contributor

Originally published on EnergyPost.eu

Solar power now covers more than 1% of global electricity demand. In three countries in Europe – Italy, Germany and Greece – solar PV supplies more than 7% of electricity demand. This is reported by Solar Power Europe (previously EPIA – European Photovoltaic Industry Association). China is the fastest growing market. Research company GlobalData has adjusted projected new capacity in China for 2015 upwards.

Last year 40 GW of new solar capacity was installed worldwide, compared to 38.4 GW in 2013, notes Solar Power Europe (SPE) in its Global Market Outlook 2015-2019.

Cumulative capacity is now 178 GW. In terms of generation, this is equivalent to 33 coal-fired power stations of 1 GW, notes SPE. In Europe last year 7 GW was installed, which was less than in 2013. The UK was the fastest growing market, contributing 2.4 GW. Europe now installs less solar power capacity than China or Japan individually, but still more than the US. However, Europe is still the world’s largest player with more than 88 GW installed at the end of 2014.

China is currently the fastest growing market, installing 10.6 GW in 2014, followed by Japan with 9.7 GW and the US with just over 6.5 GW. SPE says capacity could reach 540 GW in five years’ time in a high-growth scenario and would reach 396 GW in a “low-support” case.

The cost of PV systems continued to decline in 2014, notes SPE. “System prices below €1/wp are now common in several European countries, while prices around $1/wp have been reported in the most competitive tenders. This has been achieved thanks to the declining prices of modules – except in Europe where the minimum import price on modules from China has maintained prices at a higher than market level – and inverters, combined with economies of scale that brought installation costs down much faster than many expected.”

SPE notes that PV power prices below $60/MWh have been granted in one project in Dubai, which remains to be proven to be profitable. Other calls revealed prices between $67 and $80  per MWh. These should be considered “as best in class examples for the solar generation cost within a favourable context”. Cost of capital is one of the main barriers to the decrease of solar electricity cost, according to SPE.


World-leading status

Meanwhile market researchers GlobalData have come out with a new report which projects that 17.6 GW of new solar PV will be installed in China in 2015, i.e. an increase of some 7 GW. GlobalData notes that “For 2015, the country had previously set a target of making 15 GW of solar PV additions, comprising 7 GW of distributed generation and 8 GW of ground-mounted capacity. However, China has revised its annual target to 17.8 GW and is well on track to achieve this goal, given that about 5 GW of solar capacity was installed in Q1. These additions will allow the country to retain its world-leading status for annual solar PV additions.”

GlobalData’s report also states that the US is likely to become the second largest market in 2015. Japan will slip to third, with the country expected to see a decrease in its annual solar PV installations following two years of impressive growth.

“In the US, annual installations are expected to remain high during 2015 and 2016 owing to tax incentives for power stations that come online before the end of 2016. Solar additions in 2015 are expected to hit 7–8 GW, largely due to continued policy support.”

“Japan’s lucrative solar PV policies have been attracting an increasing amount of investment since 2012, with annual installed capacity in 2014 reaching 8–9 GW, the country’s highest ever installed capacity in a single year. However, annual installations in 2015 are unlikely to reach 2014 levels.”

Completing the top five markets will be Germany, which will increase solar PV installations by 2 GW in 2015, and India, which will add between 1.5–2 GW, according to GlobalData.

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/06/12/solar-power-passes-1-global-threshold/


 

Snail2
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December 17, 2015, 02:43:17 PM
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Sounds good. Is this 178 GW the nominal or the real capacity, or maybe the yearly output?
galdur (OP)
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December 17, 2015, 03:19:57 PM
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It seems to be the installed capacity. Well, it´s still a microscopic market share and not really economically feasible since it has to be subsidized but maybe that will change.

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December 17, 2015, 03:25:21 PM
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When solar power gets to 5%, it will suddenly take over the world.

Smiley

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December 17, 2015, 03:33:32 PM
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The world is totally awash in dirt cheap energy so it seems very unlikely that something that you basically have to be bribed to adopt, will take over that world any time soon.

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December 17, 2015, 03:42:22 PM
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Good news. Maybe in 100 years we will be able to reduce the number of coal plants and the next generation will be able to enjoy clean air.

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MaxDZ8
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December 17, 2015, 03:56:49 PM
 #7

Pretty.
Some notes.
Cumulative capacity is now 178 GW. In terms of generation, this is equivalent to 33 coal-fired power stations of 1 GW, notes SPE.
178 GW is an installed capacity. For PV they should be talking about GWp (peak capacity at normal test conditions).
1GW over 1 hour gives out 1 GWh so running 33 dispatch-able plants 360 days/year 24 hours will produce 285'120 GWh ~= 285 TWh/year.
PV capacity depends on installation as well as environmental factors. It is often sub-optimally installed. By my experience with plants around here, that PV capacity could output ~190 TWh/year (1100 hours of "nominal" production).
This implies a lot of the PV capacity is either sub-optimally installed or optimally installed in places where the yeld is much lower.
Albeit I know Germany has installed a lot... and even northern countries I still have difficulty with that gap. I'm very surprised!

The cost of PV systems continued to decline in 2014, notes SPE. “System prices below €1/wp are now common in several European countries, while prices around $1/wp have been reported in the most competitive tenders.
Odd, I've seen much lower prices on 1MWp plants years ago... maybe I'm confusing that with panel price only... I wonder what plant sizes are being considered here.

Meanwhile market researchers GlobalData have come out with a new report which projects that 17.6 GW of new solar PV will be installed in China in 2015, i.e. an increase of some 7 GW.
/me is confused.
Snail2
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December 17, 2015, 04:01:00 PM
 #8

The world is totally awash in dirt cheap energy so it seems very unlikely that something that you basically have to be bribed to adopt, will take over that world any time soon.

Correct. With the current oil prices solar energy isn't really competitive yet. From one barrel of average quality crude you can get 1.7MWh everywhere on this world, day and night, while 1 square meter solar can produce roughly 0.5-0.7kWh in the tropical/sub-tropical area during the day with full sun, and only a part of this output in the most industrialized parts of the world where electricity is much more needed.
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December 17, 2015, 04:04:59 PM
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Good news. Maybe in 100 years we will be able to reduce the number of coal plants and the next generation will be able to enjoy clean air.

If you are not living in China or an other developing country then you can enjoy it today, as the modern coal plants (apart from the CO2 emission) are almost working as air purifiers Smiley.
galdur (OP)
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December 17, 2015, 04:39:20 PM
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Could be ominous outlook for China´s ruling elite..

Mass Layoffs in China's Coal Country Threaten Unrest

New York Times-Dec 16, 2015
China has managed mass layoffs at creaky, state-owned businesses like ... The coal industry is hurting nationwide, as coal prices have fallen nearly 60 percent ...

With Coal Industry Under Pressure, Some See Long-Term Decline

New York Times-Dec 2, 2015
Coal is in trouble, and that could be good news for a warming world. .... Even China, which produced and consumed half the world's coal from 2012 to 2014, may ...

BADecker
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December 17, 2015, 07:44:32 PM
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Maybe we should form a company to fight China smog. After all, this company needs competition - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1292371.0.

Smiley

Cure your cancer at home. Ivermectin, fenbendazole, methylene blue, and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) are chief among parasite drugs. Find out that all disease is based in parasites or pollution, and what you can easily do about it - https://www.huldaclark.com/, https://thedrardisshow.com/, https://thehighwire.com/.
galdur (OP)
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December 17, 2015, 09:58:36 PM
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Chinese buy up bottles of fresh air from Canada

Canadian company which started out bottling Rocky Mountains air as a joke has seen its product fly off the shelves in pollution-hit China, with first shipment selling out in four days

By Jennifer Pak, Shenzhen1:17PM GMT 15 Dec 2015



A Chinese woman wears a mask connected to a filter in Beijing Photo: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

A Canadian start-up company bottling fresh air from the Rocky Mountains has seen sales to China soar because of rising pollution levels.
Vitality Air was founded last year in the western Canadian city of Edmonton but began selling in China less than two months ago.

“Our first shipment of 500 bottles of fresh air were sold in four days,” co-founder Moses Lam says in a telephone interview with the Telegraph.
A crate containing 4,000 more bottles is making its way to China, but he says most of that shipment has been bought.

A 7.7 Litre can of crisp air taken from Banff National Park in the majestic Rocky Mountains range sells for roughly 100 yuan (£10), which is 50 times more expensive than a bottle of mineral water in China.



Shanghai

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/12051354/Chinese-buy-up-bottles-of-fresh-air-from-Canada.html

galdur (OP)
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December 17, 2015, 10:11:40 PM
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Taken in May 1973

The George Washington Bridge in Heavy Smog. View toward the New Jersey Side of the Hudson River.
U.S. National Archives' Local Identifier: NWDNS-412-DA-5848
 
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Created by: Environmental Protection Agency. (12/02/1970 - )
 
Production Date: 05/1973
 
Photographer: Higgins, Chester, 1946-



https://www.flickr.com/photos/usnationalarchives/3679279416/in/set-72157620856436476

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December 18, 2015, 01:05:43 AM
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It seems to be the installed capacity. Well, it´s still a microscopic market share and not really economically feasible since it has to be subsidized but maybe that will change.

Government bribes distort the market.  IN the absence of those bribes, solar would in fact be installed where it was long term sustainable.  In the presence of those factors, you have really stupid and insane decision making.

Tropical islands, for example.  That's likely a good market for solar.
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December 18, 2015, 01:49:14 AM
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What about the environmental costs of the solar panels Huh

Is it worth?
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December 18, 2015, 06:32:54 PM
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What about the environmental costs of the solar panels Huh

Is it worth?

There are large areas in the Death Valley and many other Southwestern locals where there would be no damage to nature to set up enough solar to run the world. And think of the Sahara Desert.

One of the best places is the place that is often being used right now... the roofs and walls of buildings.

If you mean the pollution that might come from making solar, it would be little added to that which is being done through our modern, everyday living, and it would eventually reduce the coal pollution.

Right now, one of the biggest forms of coal pollution in America, comes from the coal ash chemtrails being sprayed throughout American and Canadian skies, intentionally. The reduction of coal burning for electricity would cut down on chemtrail pollution by cutting down on available coal ash.

Smiley

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December 19, 2015, 10:52:08 AM
 #17

Good news. Maybe in 100 years we will be able to reduce the number of coal plants and the next generation will be able to enjoy clean air.

100 years is too far. If the current levels of pollution is not reduced, then within the next 100 years, humans will become extinct. Coal-powered electricity generation remains extremely important to many of the nations around the world, including Russia, China and India. IMO, these nations should focus more on nuclear energy.
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December 22, 2015, 02:24:39 PM
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What about the environmental costs of the solar panels Huh

Is it worth?
The last models require as little as two years to pay back for the energy required to build them. Most materials are largely available and highly recyclable. Historically, the main source of pollution has been the lead used as solder but this should have been phased out completely by now. Most panels built in the 90s will be still churning out juice. I've seen one built manually in the 70s, the owner claimed it was still functional albeit at very low power.
galdur (OP)
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December 22, 2015, 02:58:40 PM
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What about the environmental costs of the solar panels Huh

Is it worth?
The last models require as little as two years to pay back for the energy required to build them. Most materials are largely available and highly recyclable. Historically, the main source of pollution has been the lead used as solder but this should have been phased out completely by now. Most panels built in the 90s will be still churning out juice. I've seen one built manually in the 70s, the owner claimed it was still functional albeit at very low power.

Only two years? Well, then it should be about to take off in a big way I guess. Of course there are gigantic interests that probably aren´t too interested in giving up market share though.

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December 22, 2015, 03:07:31 PM
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Just now I noticed that hydro-power was listed as a part of the renewable energy. Although I agree that hydro-power is indeed a renewable form of energy, it causes extreme damage to the ecosystem and environment. I have studied various hydro-power projects in the Brazilian Amazon, such as the Belo Monte dam. Millions of hectares of pristine forests are destroyed, and many of the rare fauna species will become extinct.
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