Bubbles, minibubbles or anti-bubbles in 2016?

[Biodom]

I posit that 2015 looks similar to late 2011-2012 period with bottoming out, then rise >100% from the lows.
This might suggest that, similarly to 2013, we might have two bubbles or bubblets in 2016.
Assuming that the scope of increase will be much smaller, one can see ~$2000-3000 bubblet in April-May, followed by a plunge to slightly below $1000 ($800?), followed by a further sharp advance/bubble in late 2016 at maybe $8000-10000.

The anti-bubble scenario might unfold following the first bubblet if the downside momentum during summer of 2016 would be too strong.
In such case, the antibubble can bring us back to $400-500 or even lower.

trading: buy now or hodl, wait for the first peak, sell, reevaluate depending on whether momentum will carry down much below $1000.

[1714480142]

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[1714480142]

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[jehst]

I don't know if there will be one, two, or zero bubbles in 2016, but I think the most unlikely thing is that the price steadily goes up for an entire year. The booms and busts are not over.

[zimmah]

I don't know if there will be one, two, or zero bubbles in 2016, but I think the most unlikely thing is that the price steadily goes up for an entire year. The booms and busts are not over.

Steady upwards hasn't happened before in Bitcoin (not for long periods of time at least) I think the two bubbles theory is the best one.

We have had one of the biggest bear markets In Bitcoin history while growth has increased all that time and media attention and adoption by both persons as well as banks and merchants, on top of the soon to come halving. Even with a bubble we would still be undervalued, especially since after the bubble pops we'd not be much higher than we are now. So a pre-bubble that seems to crash but than soon starts a real bubble seems most likely. And 10,000 seems like the lower limit for it.