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Author Topic: 100,000th Block Forward Rate  (Read 2306 times)
mpkomara
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September 27, 2010, 07:37:23 PM
 #1

Where can someone with perfect Bitcoin credit:

1) buy 1000 Bitcoins from you with USD when the block total reaches 100,000?
2) sell 1000 Bitcoins to you for USD when the block total reaches 100,000?





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Transactions can optionally carry transaction fees. Whoever mines the block which ends up containing your transaction will get the fee. The Bitcoin client will sometimes force you to pay a fee when it thinks that no miner will accept your transaction otherwise.
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SmokeTooMuch
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October 07, 2010, 06:09:47 PM
 #2

I`m not sure why you want to wait for the 100,000th block but you can sell and buy bitcoins for USD on several sites now.
bitcoinmarket
mtgox
bitcoin2cash
bitcoin4cash
..
..
..

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=30.0

Or maybe I misunderstood you and you look for something totally different ?

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jgarzik
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October 07, 2010, 08:04:25 PM
 #3

I`m not sure why you want to wait for the 100,000th block but you can sell and buy bitcoins for USD on several sites now.
[...]
Or maybe I misunderstood you and you look for something totally different ?

It sounds like he's looking for bitcoin futures, a topic in which several have expressed interest.

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mpkomara
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October 07, 2010, 09:40:21 PM
 #4

I would rather call this a forward rate agreement than a future.

Currently Mtgox is showing a spot currency exchange rate of .064 $/BTC.  I don't think that this will be the rate at the 100,000th block.  I don't think anyone else believes this, either.  So let's start with the easy question:

when will the 100,000th block occur, roughly?
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October 07, 2010, 09:45:41 PM
 #5

probably price will be up 10fold by then

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mpkomara
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October 07, 2010, 10:15:43 PM
 #6

I will sell you 10,000 BTC for $6,000 on the date of the 100,000 block if you wish.
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October 07, 2010, 10:24:34 PM
 #7

:-)
First I need to have a rough idea about when this will be.
And , if I fundamentally believed into this, I could buy them now for about 0.066

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ribuck
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October 08, 2010, 09:46:18 AM
 #8

I will sell you 10,000 BTC for $6,000 on the date of the 100,000 block if you wish.
If, at the date of the 100,000th block, MtGox prices each bitcoin at $35, will you still sell your 10,000 BTC for $6,000 instead of the $350,000 that you would get at MtGox?

If you don't already have them, how would you get them at that price? And if you do already have them, would you be willing to vest them with a trusted third party in the meantime?

Bitcoin futures are much trickier than currency futures, because there's no easy way to hedge.
mpkomara
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October 08, 2010, 11:20:22 AM
 #9

I will sell you 10,000 BTC for $6,000 on the date of the 100,000 block if you wish.
If, at the date of the 100,000th block, MtGox prices each bitcoin at $35, will you still sell your 10,000 BTC for $6,000 instead of the $350,000 that you would get at MtGox?

If you don't already have them, how would you get them at that price? And if you do already have them, would you be willing to vest them with a trusted third party in the meantime?

Bitcoin futures are much trickier than currency futures, because there's no easy way to hedge.

1) if you entered the agreement with me right now, yes, i would sell 10,000 BTC for $6,000 at the time of the 100,000th block no matter what the price Mtgox (or any other exchange) showed at the time of the 100,000th block.

2) you would have to trust your counterparty to have the bitcoins at the time of the 100,000th block (this goes back to "perfect bitcoin credit" assumption in the original post).  I know of no good escrow service as of right now, so counterparty risk is certainly something to factor in.  also keep in mind my original post requests a market in only 1,000 BTC.



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October 08, 2010, 02:54:00 PM
 #10

anyway I will not get into this future thing. i will keep my big chunk of BTC as long as I see it making sense, and not sell before they are worth 35$ each :-)

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skull88
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October 08, 2010, 05:09:03 PM
 #11

anyway I will not get into this future thing. i will keep my big chunk of BTC as long as I see it making sense, and not sell before they are worth 35$ each :-)
Same here, or even better would be if I don't need to sell them ever. If I can buy everything I need with btc, why sell them? Smiley

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mpkomara
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December 06, 2010, 09:57:19 PM
 #12

bump!

any interest here?

What is the price for me to

1) buy 1000 Bitcoins from you with USD when the block total reaches 100,000?
2) sell 1000 Bitcoins to you for USD when the block total reaches 100,000?
ribuck
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December 06, 2010, 10:11:42 PM
 #13

...sell 1000 Bitcoins to you for USD when the block total reaches 100,000?

I offer to buy 1000 bitcoins from you for USD 200 when the block total reaches 100,000 if you choose to accept this offer within 48 hours.
ptd
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December 07, 2010, 01:21:48 PM
 #14

I would rather call this a forward rate agreement than a future.

Do you mean an option?
mpkomara
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December 07, 2010, 01:35:54 PM
 #15

No
ribuck
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December 09, 2010, 12:30:08 PM
 #16

I offer to buy 1000 bitcoins from you for USD 200 when the block total reaches 100,000 if you choose to accept this offer within 48 hours.

So was this not what you were seeking? Or was the price uninteresting? Or were you looking for enough takers on both sides (buy/sell) that you could profit from arbitrage?
mpkomara
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December 10, 2010, 12:26:50 AM
 #17

The price was uninteresting.  But thank you for the price, I'm glad you were willing to take the risk! 
ribuck
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December 10, 2010, 11:25:47 AM
 #18

The price was uninteresting.
Fair enough, although 24 hours after I posted the price I saw the MtGox price continuing to slide and was wondering whether I had made a foolish offer!
mpkomara
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December 10, 2010, 02:34:19 PM
 #19

my finger was on the trigger
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