The Christmas 2015 Bubble

[pissedoff]

I think this bubble, will drop right after christmas, like it does every year. I mean, this is just what i think, so it might also rise after christmas.

What are you talking about? Are you kidding?
Last year, 2014, and in 2013 we decreased in price after christmas.But that was the time after this absolutely crazy bubble.I remember a few guys here wrote that they expect a bear phase of 18-24 months!
In 2012 we increased in price!!AT christmas evening around 13,20 and then upwards!
In 2011 we increased in price after christmas as well!! Around 3,90 at christmas evening and then upwards!
In 2010 we increased as well! 25 cents at christmas evening and then upwards!
So the price had risen each year after christmans except 2013 and 2014. Better check history and charts before making such a dumb statement!!

Yeah I agree, We are seeing the same patterns repeat again this year. $500 is the next target.

[HarryKPeters]

The bubble is already getting passed by, by the market.
Many speculatoers are getting impatient and what we are seeing here is just a natural market correction.

It could be worse and it will be worse. Just wait and see what will happen the next coming days..

[Cereberus]

So when will this Xmas bubble start?  Soon I hope 

Isn't it already in motion? Bitcoin price is more than $460 right now, 2 months ago it couldn't pierce the ceiling of $300 isn't it a bubble?
But if you look at bitcoin price charts, year by year you will see certain similarities - around December EVERY year bitcoin price is rising in similar fashion.
And in January we have huge drop. Coincidence?

I see it dropping right now. Surprised to wake up and see it at $443. That is a drastic drop overnight, well to me anyways.

[kwukduck]

So when will this Xmas bubble start?  Soon I hope 

Isn't it already in motion? Bitcoin price is more than $460 right now, 2 months ago it couldn't pierce the ceiling of $300 isn't it a bubble?
But if you look at bitcoin price charts, year by year you will see certain similarities - around December EVERY year bitcoin price is rising in similar fashion.
And in January we have huge drop. Coincidence?

I see it dropping right now. Surprised to wake up and see it at $443. That is a drastic drop overnight, well to me anyways.

If you think this is drastic you'll be in for a complete shock the next 2 days...

[angaper]

No, I really would not like such a gift because I am seriously considering to purchase some bitcoins these days since Santa has been a bad boy with me 

[NorrisK]

So when will this Xmas bubble start?  Soon I hope 

Isn't it already in motion? Bitcoin price is more than $460 right now, 2 months ago it couldn't pierce the ceiling of $300 isn't it a bubble?
But if you look at bitcoin price charts, year by year you will see certain similarities - around December EVERY year bitcoin price is rising in similar fashion.
And in January we have huge drop. Coincidence?

I see it dropping right now. Surprised to wake up and see it at $443. That is a drastic drop overnight, well to me anyways.

If you think this is drastic you'll be in for a complete shock the next 2 days...

Drastic shock because the price shot back up to the same level in the same time?
This is just normal volatility for bitcoin, not something to be worried about.

We gain tens of dollars a day for multiple days in a row, but when we drop 20 dollars it is like hell freezes over. Sometimes I just don't get the logic here.

[Cereberus]

So when will this Xmas bubble start?  Soon I hope 

Isn't it already in motion? Bitcoin price is more than $460 right now, 2 months ago it couldn't pierce the ceiling of $300 isn't it a bubble?
But if you look at bitcoin price charts, year by year you will see certain similarities - around December EVERY year bitcoin price is rising in similar fashion.
And in January we have huge drop. Coincidence?

I see it dropping right now. Surprised to wake up and see it at $443. That is a drastic drop overnight, well to me anyways.

If you think this is drastic you'll be in for a complete shock the next 2 days...

what do you know that nobody else knows that is happening in the next 2 days?
I am sure the ones who are ready to sell would like to know this mcfly anomaly.

[Tafbiat]

I think there will be no Christmas bubble this year. This is good for the long term health of bitcoin. Pump and dump is bad.

[Hashminers]

Right now the value of bitcoin is slowly increasing again, after a couple of days of ups and downs. I'm hoping for bitcoin to raise in value from now on.

[Bitcoinbro]

As far as I can tell bitcoin is going up in value once again. There is movement as I am making this post, there is still a chance for bitcoin to reach $500 or even higher before this year ends.
Who knows what will happen, I will be holding and enjoying the holidays as you all should.

[uki]

I think this bubble, will drop right after christmas, like it does every year. I mean, this is just what i think, so it might also rise after christmas.

What are you talking about? Are you kidding?
Last year, 2014, and in 2013 we decreased in price after christmas.But that was the time after this absolutely crazy bubble.I remember a few guys here wrote that they expect a bear phase of 18-24 months!
In 2012 we increased in price!!AT christmas evening around 13,20 and then upwards!
In 2011 we increased in price after christmas as well!! Around 3,90 at christmas evening and then upwards!
In 2010 we increased as well! 25 cents at christmas evening and then upwards!
So the price had risen each year after christmans except 2013 and 2014. Better check history and charts before making such a dumb statement!!

Again the same story. Guys/Gals, Bitcoin has too little history to talk about seasonals. It is only six years, whereas regular assets require at least 30 years of data to get something statistically meaningful. In the example you provided you got five cases, two with one outcome, and three with the other. No clear conclusion can be drawn, unless you want to say it is about 50/50 to go in each direction. I repeat, there is too little historical data to get the statistically meaningful forecast of the behaviour of the price in a given time period.

[medUSA]

OP is saying the recent rise in prices has to be a bubble. I disagree. There may be one coming up in May/June, which can be named "Halving Bubble 2016". But at this point, we are still in a recovery phase from the bottom, there is no bubble yet.

[coinplus]

OP is saying the recent rise in prices has to be a bubble. I disagree. There may be one coming up in May/June, which can be named "Halving Bubble 2016". But at this point, we are still in a recovery phase from the bottom, there is no bubble yet.

Yes you are right. The recent price up surge has not witnessed any rapid raising of prices. A slow and steady price movement with reasonable volume never be categorized as bubble. Until upcoming halving we can regularly see this kind of price movements for sure.

[Zaun]

OP is saying the recent rise in prices has to be a bubble. I disagree. There may be one coming up in May/June, which can be named "Halving Bubble 2016". But at this point, we are still in a recovery phase from the bottom, there is no bubble yet.

I agree, there is indeed a rising to an upcoming bubble but I don't think this will happen this year anymore. I'm going for the mid of 2016 as well.
I'm glad to see the progress bitcoin has made so far though, this just proves that bitcoin can take a hit and can bounce back up.

[Seal]

If by Santa you mean Russian pyramid schemer Sergey Mavrodi, then you may be correct sir!
This is going to be like Mt Gox in slow motion.

On the topic of MtGox, payouts would be a nice present this Christmas...

[acquafredda]

The late price movement looks more like a slow downhill journey than a stop before a new price surge. But Christmas is approaching I will wait and see although I don't think in a new rise. At least not now.

[AndySt]

The late price movement looks more like a slow downhill journey than a stop before a new price surge. But Christmas is approaching I will wait and see although I don't think in a new rise. At least not now.

I also think that in the near future rise is not expected and in January there may come a correction. The question is the scale of correction.

[jehst]

January might get crazy.

[Rizky Aditya]

This year, Santa decided it would be easier to make bitcoin go higher rather than deliver individual gifts. 

But the gift is only to Bitcoiners this year because they're the only smart ones to invest in BTC

Exactly. I guess Santa like to reward the smart people of the world. If they invested in bitcoin, they would also very a good Christmas gift.

[uki]

January might get crazy.

well, you can say that about any upcoming month. If the bubble is in the cards, we may see fireworks in any month of 2016. The point is however, I don't see just halving as sufficient reason to bring us to $1k prices. We would need some more events/developments to fuel the bubble. That is why I am sceptical that things start to go ballistic already in January