Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Begins Massive Tank

[tacotime]

Greatest %/day decreases in years

Ruh roh

[Bitobsessed]

Maybe a manufacturer of asics is done with "quality control" and they are ready to ship?

[crazyates]

I don't really like looking at the 1-day average. It's too inconsistent, and can very easily be swayed by variance, without actually a drop in hashrate. That said, the 3-day windows has dropped off significantly since 12/12/4:



It looks to be too much for just variance. Seems the next diff recalculate might be a little lower.

[CoinHoarder]

lite coins hash rate has jumped quite a bit, maybe it is some big GPU farms.

[TraderTimm]

So you're concerned about a dip that has a higher low than the two preceding it?

Why are threads created with misleading titles like bitcointalk is some tabloid rag?

[tacotime]

I'm pointing out that the trend upwards has finally reversed.

This is the speculation forum, not the "here's my intelligent retrospective analysis of data I obtained from the future" forum.

[TraderTimm]

I'm pointing out that the trend upwards has finally reversed.

This is the speculation forum, not the "here's my intelligent retrospective analysis of data I obtained from the future" forum.

So a title like "Hash Rate Breaking Upward Trend?" didn't seem more accurate? The addition of "Begins Massive Tank" seems really sensationalist to me.

I get we're in the 'speculation' forum, I'm just getting tired of the implied "OMG Crisis" in the thread topics.

Such as "Crash" titles when BTC declines by $1 USD. It's hyperbolic and makes little sense.

[meebs]

if you ignore the fact that the entire graph range is only +/- 2% of course it looks like a big drop... if the range was instead +/- 20% it'd look like the minor change that it is.

[superfastkyle]

Because it is in tacotime's best interest for people to stop mining litecoins, most threads in speculation forums have an agenda

Why are threads created with misleading titles like bitcointalk is some tabloid rag?

[crazyates]

if you ignore the fact that the entire graph range is only +/- 2% of course it looks like a big drop... if the range was instead +/- 20% it'd look like the minor change that it is.

It's only 2%, but it's 2% per day for 4 days. In total, we're about -10% of the network a week or two ago.

[bitboyben]

Agreed. I think the only people who shut down are the twelve-ish people on this forum that have stated they have. Last I checked the estimated difficulty was going up. May have changed in the last 18hours though.

[eleuthria]

Agreed. I think the only people who shut down are the twelve-ish people on this forum that have stated they have. Last I checked the estimated difficulty was going up. May have changed in the last 18hours though.

Estimate has flipped to a slight decrease, which is impressive considering how much the network ramped up just prior to the block reward drop, which really pushed the estimate high.

3438909 -> 3425847.

Estimate was even lower earlier, but we've had a few periods of 10+ blocks in about 45 minutes today which brought it back up a little.

[monstrs]

Its growing again. Cant wait for difficulty to drop, but it looks that many have to wait atleast month, until they realizes, that they cant mine a shit now

[bcpokey]

Variance or no variance, for whatever reason the halving of blocks has provided for the largest short-term swing in estimated hashrate calculated by blockrate in the past year. Obviously it will be weeks before the ramifications sort themselves out though.

[lenny_]

if you ignore the fact that the entire graph range is only +/- 2% of course it looks like a big drop... if the range was instead +/- 20% it'd look like the minor change that it is.

It's only 2%, but it's 2% per day for 4 days. In total, we're about -10% of the network a week or two ago.

Current difficulty:   3438908.9601591   Current block: 211516
Next est. difficulty: 3384279.41923707  Target block:  211679
Next retarget in:     163 blocks (1.13194 days)

Where's your 10% drop? Current estimate from last difficulty adjust (12 days ago) showing total estimated drop of 1.6%.

[tacotime]

Because it is in tacotime's best interest for people to stop mining litecoins, most threads in speculation forums have an agenda

Why are threads created with misleading titles like bitcointalk is some tabloid rag?

Shhh

[tacotime]

if you ignore the fact that the entire graph range is only +/- 2% of course it looks like a big drop... if the range was instead +/- 20% it'd look like the minor change that it is.

It's only 2%, but it's 2% per day for 4 days. In total, we're about -10% of the network a week or two ago.

Current difficulty:   3438908.9601591   Current block: 211516
Next est. difficulty: 3384279.41923707  Target block:  211679
Next retarget in:     163 blocks (1.13194 days)

Where's your 10% drop? Current estimate from last difficulty adjust (12 days ago) showing total estimated drop of 1.6%.

Isn't it more like a ~30% drop?  We were at 30 th/s on the 1st and now we're at 23 th/s from 3-day estimates

[crazyates]

if you ignore the fact that the entire graph range is only +/- 2% of course it looks like a big drop... if the range was instead +/- 20% it'd look like the minor change that it is.

It's only 2%, but it's 2% per day for 4 days. In total, we're about -10% of the network a week or two ago.

Current difficulty:   3438908.9601591   Current block: 211516
Next est. difficulty: 3384279.41923707  Target block:  211679
Next retarget in:     163 blocks (1.13194 days)

Where's your 10% drop? Current estimate from last difficulty adjust (12 days ago) showing total estimated drop of 1.6%.

When taking into account the entire 12 days, yes it looks like nothings happened. But look at the chart I posted up above. The network hashrate was significantly and noticeable higher before the 4th than it was after the 4th.

Or if you want, look at the OPs chart. It dropped a minimum of 2% for 4 straight days. That's pretty close to a 10% drop.

[bitboyben]

I'm confused the hash rate is going down but difficulty hasn't moved much does that mean the remaining miners are just lucky?

[bcpokey]

There was a huge spike in hashrate at the beginning of the week, followed by a huge drop later, both rectifying towards the norm.

Difficulty is calculated roughly as expected_time/actual_time, so if it averages out to having taken the same amount of time, difficulty will remain roughly the same.