Has Europe Reached the Breaking Point?

[xht]

A refugee crisis, a Greek debt showdown, Russian aggression and terrorism
in the streets. How 2015 has threatened to undo the European Union.

A few weeks ago, I visited the fence that made Hungary a symbol of European anxiety. Chain-link and razor wire, it slices through pastures as it traces Hungary’s southern border. More than 100 miles long, it was constructed quickly this summer as refugees streamed into the country, heading toward Austria and Germany. Police officers and soldiers were stationed every few hundred yards, and they examined my passport at almost every checkpoint. They seemed bored, perhaps because the flood of refugees and migrants had mostly abated. The fence had sealed Hungary off, and that made Laszlo Toroczkai — the 37-year-old mayor of Asotthalom, a Hungarian farming town on the Serbian border, and a rising ultranationalist star of far-right European politics — very happy.

Before Hungary’s government started building the fence, Toroczkai argued for months that something had to be done to stop the refugees. Once the fence was up, he posted his version of a ‘‘Dirty Harry’’ video on YouTube. Stone-­faced and wearing a black jacket, Toroczkai warns illegal immigrants to steer clear of his town. The video cuts to images of unsmiling Hungarian guards, patrolling the border on horseback and motorcycles. It even includes a map that shows migrants en route to Germany how they can skirt Hungary and go through Croatia and Slovenia instead.

‘‘Hungary is a bad choice,’’ Toroczkai says, staring into the camera. ‘‘Asotthalom is the worst.’’
It might seem odd that a chain-link fence could threaten the order of the European Union, but one of modern Europe’s singular accomplishments is its open internal borders. The treaty that made this possible, known as the Schengen Agreement, began going into effect in 1995 and expanded to include 26 countries in and around the European Union. It immediately provided a potent symbol of both the ideals and the real benefits of European integration. Elites believed unity would guarantee peace and prosperity and dispel the demons of nationalism. Over time, the European Union built a rich and diverse economy, exerting global influence through the clout of its scale and the soft power of its liberal, democratic values — a Western superpower without the bellicosity or the laissez-faire hardheartedness of the United States. Workers’ rights were protected. Generous social-welfare programs flourished. The open borders bound the member nations together in subtler ways, too: Italians could soon go skiing in Austria with ease and without a passport, or head to the Côte d’Azur for a swim as if Europe were all one country. Workers could commute between Brussels and Paris without hassle.

Hungary’s southern fence was erected along its external borders with Serbia and Croatia, which are not Schengen countries. But it caused a chain reaction that shook European politics to the core, as the distinctions between internal and external borders blurred. First, it led to more fences. Neither Slovenia (which is a Schengen country) nor Croatia was fully prepared for the surge of frantic migrants and refugees suddenly diverted toward them. Slovenia quickly constructed its own fence on the Croatian border. Austria later began building a fence on its boundary with Slovenia and established other border controls, as did other countries. Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary said he was defending the Schengen area, while other leaders said these new barriers were intended to provide an orderly route north for refugees, not to block them. Nonetheless, the rapid proliferation of fences across a region defined by free movement was an unmistakable sign that the external Schengen borders had broken down and the founding values of the system were under terrible strain.


By the time of my visit, the broader question in Hungary and throughout the member nations was whether the European Union itself was falling apart. Twice in 11 months, Paris had been hit by vicious terrorist attacks, raising fears about European security and stirring anti-Muslim xenophobia. Europe’s far right was gaining strength, including the National Front in France. Europe’s undisputed leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, was in political trouble. Greece was still a financial mess. A demographic crisis loomed, given the rapid aging of many European countries. Out on the European periphery, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, was making bloody mischief in Syria and Ukraine. And the United Kingdom was contemplating withdrawing from the union altogether.

The European Union was supposed to be an economic superpower, but after seven years it is still struggling to recover from the global economic crisis. Economic growth is sluggish at best (and uneven, given the divide between a more prosperous north and a debt-burdened south). Adjusting for inflation, the gross domestic product of the 19 countries now sharing Europe’s common currency, the euro, was less in 2014 than it was in 2007. Widespread joblessness and diminishing opportunities confront an entire generation of young Europeans, especially in Spain, Italy, France and Greece. The economic malaise tinges everything: Young people resist marriage for lack of economic opportunity. Poorer European countries are experiencing brain drains as many of their best young professionals and college graduates move abroad. Numerous Greek doctors, for instance, now work in more prosperous Germany while Greece’s health system is in crisis. Even as Toroczkai pushed back against migrants, he complained to me that too many young Hungarians had to leave for London or elsewhere to find work.

The migrants only accentuate the European paradox: A place of deepening pessimism for many of its own young people has become a beacon of hope and safety for migrants, many of them Syrian refugees who have been through the horrors of civil war. Many are young and educated, seemingly a timely fit for a region with an aging population. Except Muslim immigrants present a challenge to European ideals of tolerance, especially in a year of terror attacks, as far-right extremists and conservative political leaders like Orban warn that Europe’s security and ‘‘Christian values’’ are threatened — a reminder of just how fragile the European system has become.

Currently composed of 28 member states, from Germany, the industrial giant, to Malta, the tiny archipelago, the European Union is a bureaucratic machine jerry-built in pursuit of a utopian dream, the post-World War II vision that a unified Europe would be a peaceful and prosperous Europe. Nationalism and extremism had led to Hitler and the Holocaust and, before that, centuries of war. The New Europe was supposed to make future wars impossible and create harmony. The reality never matched the ambition, but considerable accomplishments ensued: the world’s largest single market; the open borders of the Schengen countries; the euro; and a progressive social and legal framework that has made the European Union a leader in environmental protection, renewable energy and human rights.


Modern Europe was put together incrementally, beginning with an industrial agreement in the early 1950s among six countries, with France and Germany at the center. Next came the Treaty of Rome in 1957, which created the European Economic Community, the European Union’s forerunner, at that point encompassing only Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and West Germany. The Maastricht Treaty in 1992 introduced requirements and a timetable to establish the common currency. Other treaties gradually brought in more member states, drawn to European prosperity and security, including the Baltics and parts of Eastern Europe in 2004 and 2007, in a final triumph over the Cold War.

But then came the 2008 economic crisis, followed by the convulsive aftermath of the Arab Spring, followed by the aggression of a revanchist Russia. Europe’s collaborative, consultative political style began to resemble indecisiveness. The inadequacy and weakness of the European Union’s institutions were glaringly exposed. Washington was mostly focused elsewhere, and European leaders continued to practice the high art of muddling through, in hopes that the broader European economy would revive soon and bring brighter political prospects. Instead, 2015 became the year that pushed Europe to the brink.

It began on Jan. 7, with the year’s first Paris terror attacks, when two French-Algerian brothers opened fire with automatic weapons inside the offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. A third gunman, a criminal-turned-Islamist, later killed a police officer and stormed a kosher grocery. In total, 17 people were killed. But the focus quickly shifted southward to Greece. On Jan. 25, the Greeks staged a revolt, electing as prime minister a radical leftist, Alexis Tsipras, who famously refused to wear a tie. Just 40, Tsipras had promised to put an end to economic austerity, the German-led European Union policy of trying to promote growth by reducing national budget deficits through mandated tax increases, spending cuts and structural reforms. Yet debt levels had grown in Greece, unemployment remained above 20 percent and its economy over the past five years had contracted by 25 percent.

In February, Tsipras and his flamboyant finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, toured European capitals to urge Greece’s creditors to change the terms of the loans that had kept their country afloat. Germany, Finland and other creditors thought Greece was ungrateful and resisting the tough reforms needed to reverse decades of bad governance. In late June, everything blew up. Unable to secure more bailout money, Tsipras called a surprise national referendum, asking Greek voters to decide on the latest offer from creditors. They voted ‘‘no’’ — to no avail. Greece effectively defaulted on an I.M.F. loan as the government began running out of money. Tsipras closed banks, put capital controls in place and finally capitulated in July. He signed a new bailout deal with creditors that included the same sort of austerity measures he had spent months fighting. In August, he resigned. And in September, he was re-elected, though now his job in part was to carry out the terms of the new deal. Austerity had prevailed, even if fewer and fewer people thought it worked.

The Greek crisis was about an inward-looking Europe grappling with its own internal contradictions. But by summer and early autumn, Europe’s external contradictions had become even more acute. Two pillars of foreign policy — engagement with Russia and the maintenance of stability on the European periphery — were trembling. Ukraine was in crisis and at the center of a confrontation between the European Union and Putin. Dealing with him became even more complicated when Russia began bombings in Syria, aggravating a refugee crisis that already dominated the European agenda.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/20/magazine/has-europe-reached-the-breaking-point.html?ref=world

[bryant.coleman]

As usual, the NY Times claim that Russia is behind all the evils. According to them the refugee crisis was worsened by the Russian air-strikes, when the truth is the other way around. Russian air-strikes have reduced the area under the control of Jabhat Al Nusra and the Islamic State, there by enabling the internally displaced Syrians to go back to their native villages and towns.

[pbleak]

Makes for a good headline, but no, not really. Is Europe about to experience a lot of tension? Sure. The place has taken on the silly task of taking in a massive influx of people from an area that it has, at best, an awkward relationship with.

[vero]

Finally, the EU is coming to its senses over the illegal mass migrant issue. No country in the world can afford to take 100s of thousands of people with dissimilar cultural and religious views, such as antipathy towards: women's rights, LGBT issues, freedom of expression, freedom of speech, secularism, and the separation of religion of state, and hope to keep their own cultures intact.

[tsoPANos]

As usual, the NY Times claim that Russia is behind all the evils. According to them the refugee crisis was worsened by the Russian air-strikes, when the truth is the other way around. Russian air-strikes have reduced the area under the control of Jabhat Al Nusra and the Islamic State, there by enabling the internally displaced Syrians to go back to their native villages and towns.

I love how people here is open minded, not being fooled with western propaganda.
"Russia bombings intensified refuge crisis" "They only bomb the FSA, not ISIS"
Are some common misinformation spread by the western media, while the Russians are bombing any
anti-Assad force, including the American-equipped "good" jihadists, Jabhat Al Nusra.

[countryfree]

You forgot one major source of conflict: Angela Merkel's position towards refugees. All countries were only willing to accept a very limited number of refugees, and suddenly Germany says hundreds ou thousands should be allowed to get in. Nobody expected that, but with Germany so powerful no one dared criticize Merkel. All the trouble in Hungary or Slovenia are only the results of Germany's choice to open the door.

[bryant.coleman]

You forgot one major source of conflict: Angela Merkel's position towards refugees. All countries were only willing to accept a very limited number of refugees, and suddenly Germany says hundreds ou thousands should be allowed to get in. Nobody expected that, but with Germany so powerful no one dared criticize Merkel. All the trouble in Hungary or Slovenia are only the results of Germany's choice to open the door.

Angela Merkel encouraged the refugees to travel to Germany, which all of a sudden created an inflow of millions of unwashed third world immigrants to the Europe. There were plenty of criticism from the Eastern European member nations, but they were soon branded as racist and xenophobic, and had to support this measure in the end.

[zenitzz]

How peculiar that the author doesn't see the similarities between what is dragging down Europe and what is dragging down the United States. It is unchecked illegal immigration assisted by the Angela Merkel of the United States, Barack H. Obama. While it is true that Europe has no equivalent to the U.S. Constitution, we have a president who believes that he may supersede it.

[panju1]

How peculiar that the author doesn't see the similarities between what is dragging down Europe and what is dragging down the United States. It is unchecked illegal immigration assisted by the Angela Merkel of the United States, Barack H. Obama. While it is true that Europe has no equivalent to the U.S. Constitution, we have a president who believes that he may supersede it.

Exactly. The US is also sitting on a ticking time bomb as far as debt is concerned.
This will be far worse compared to the Greek debt crisis.

[GTO911]

Europe - Rest in Peace

[zenitzz]

Over a million migrants and refugees have reached Europe this year, says IOM

International Organisation for Migration announces latest figures, with Greek island of Lesbos now the main refugee gateway

More than a million people have now reached Europe through irregular means in 2015, the International Organisation for Migration has announced, in what constitutes the continent’s biggest wave of mass migration since the aftermath of the second world war.

Out of a total of 1,005,504 arrivals by 21 December, the vast majority – 816,752 – arrived by sea in Greece, the IOM said. A further 150,317 arrived by sea in Italy, with much smaller figures for Spain, Malta and Cyprus. A total of 34,215 crossed by land routes, such as over the Turkish-Bulgarian border.

The overall figure is a four-fold increase from 2014’s figures, and has largely been driven by Syrians fleeing their country’s civil war. Afghans, Iraqis and Eritreans fleeing conflict and repression are the other significant national groups.

The European migration flow is nevertheless far more manageable than in the Middle East, where roughly 2.2 million Syrian refugees live in Turkey alone. In Lebanon, 1.1 million Syrians form about one-fifth of the country’s total population, while Jordan’s 633,000 registered Syrian refugees make up around a tenth of the total.

The denial of basic rights to refugees in those countries, where almost all Syrians do not have the right to work, is one of the causes of Europe’s migration crisis. Refugees who have lived for several years in legal limbo are now coming to Europe to claim the rights bestowed on them by the 1951 UN refugee convention.

“In Jordan, life is so difficult,” said Nemer, a 24-year-old Syrian student, minutes after landing this week on the Greek island of Lesbos. “There’s no [legal] work. I can’t go to university. There’s no hope. And in Turkey it’s the same thing: no work and no hope.”

Other refugees are fleeing directly from the war zones themselves. Aruba al-Rifai, a 44-year-old civil servant from the outskirts of Damascus, arrived on Lesbos this week having come straight from Syria. “The bombs are getting worse, and it’s just the beginning,” said Rifai. “I come to Europe to feel like a human being.”

“In Jordan, life is so difficult,” said Nemer, a 24-year-old Syrian student, minutes after landing this week on the Greek island of Lesbos. “There’s no [legal] work. I can’t go to university. There’s no hope. And in Turkey it’s the same thing: no work and no hope.”

Other refugees are fleeing directly from the war zones themselves. Aruba al-Rifai, a 44-year-old civil servant from the outskirts of Damascus, arrived on Lesbos this week having come straight from Syria. “The bombs are getting worse, and it’s just the beginning,” said Rifai. “I come to Europe to feel like a human being.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/22/one-million-migrants-and-refugees-have-reached-europe-this-year-iom

[bryant.coleman]

Exactly. The US is also sitting on a ticking time bomb as far as debt is concerned.
This will be far worse compared to the Greek debt crisis.

As long as the United States Dollar remains as the world reserve currency, and as long as the federal debt is sold in the form of long-term bonds with extreme-low interest, the Americans won't have much to worry about. Their relative debt repayment burden is still much lower, when compared to the other Western nations, such as Italy and France. 

[xht]

Bulgarian Border Police Accused of Abusing Refugees

SUKRUPASA, Turkey — The small squat structure, a cross between a kiosk and a duck blind, was starkly pale against the brown, soggy hillside a few hundred yards away.

“Bulgarian border police,” said Hasan Bulgur, 73, pointing as he leaned on a crooked walking stick at the edge of this village in northern Turkey. “They are watching us now. When the refugees try to cross, they are stopping them and pushing them back, sometimes beating them, robbing them, even unleashing dogs on them.”

Groups of migrants, having failed to make it past the Bulgarians, frequently straggle out of the fields here, sopping wet after fording a nearby river. They arrive sometimes in groups of as many as 50, some of them with bruised skulls and bashed noses, Mr. Bulgur and other residents said.

“They hit me and took my money,” said Alan Murad, a 17-year-old Iraqi asylum-seeker living at a refugee center in Sofia, Bulgaria’s capital, recounting his treatment by the Bulgarian border authorities. “I ran away from hell at home, trying to find paradise in Europe. Instead, I found another hell.”

One of the puzzles of Europe’s stubborn migrant crisis is why refugees choose to make the perilous and sometimes fatal sea crossing from Turkey to Greece rather than walking across a seemingly accessible land border from Turkey into southern Bulgaria.

Officials and the migrants themselves point to several reasons. The sea route is cheaper and more favored by human smugglers. The border, so inviting on the map, is a tougher obstacle than it may appear, especially in winter, made up of fast rivers, thick woods and jagged hills. And new razor fences and high-tech monitoring gear have made it significantly more difficult to sneak across.

But the leading reason, many refugees interviewed in Turkey and across the Balkans said, is the ruthlessness of the Bulgarian border agencies.

Interviews with aid workers and dozens of refugees making their way across a half-dozen countries revealed a widespread fear of the Bulgarian authorities. They talked of rough or violent behavior by border guards, who will register and fingerprint the migrants — meaning they have to stay in Bulgaria while their cases are adjudicated — or push them back into Turkey.

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The Bulgarian government, which like its counterparts in many other Central and Eastern European capitals has been far less welcoming of refugees than those in most of Western Europe, dismissed suggestions of systemic efforts to intimidate refugees.

“I think these charges are widely exaggerated,” said Philip Gounev, a deputy interior minister in Bulgaria. “Our policy has always been to investigate such cases, if there is a complaint. Yet out of 30,000 people who have passed through the border, we’ve had only two complaints that resulted in prosecutions. We can’t do an investigation if they don’t give us a signal.”

But to the 80 residents of Sukrupasa, one of a string of Turkish villages overlooking the Bulgarian border, the sight of returning migrants has become a common one, especially here where there is not yet a razor-wire border fence being built by Bulgaria.

“The migrants usually cross over at night, directed by the smugglers,” said Osman Aran, 81, who has lived in Sukrupasa his entire life. “And then we see them straggling back in the morning.”

Based on the stories he has heard from migrants and villagers, Krassimir Kanev, chairman of the Bulgarian Helsinki Committee, said he believed the abuse of migrants was quite widespread, but it is impossible to tell for certain.

A report released last month by Oxfam and the Belgrade Center for Human Rights drew on interviews with 110 refugees who had passed through Bulgaria and into Serbia. Each one who had contact with the Bulgarian police reported some form of abuse, the report said, an outcome so unanimous that even other aid groups found it a little suspect.

Complicating matters, Mr. Kanev said, is that some of the smugglers tell the migrants to complain about such abuse, whether real or not.

Under European immigration rules, asylum seekers who are registered and fingerprinted in one country are expected to remain in that country until their case is decided. If they continue to another country, they could be arrested and returned.

“The traffickers tell them that if they complain about abuse by Bulgarian police and then continue on to Germany, they stand a better chance of not being returned to Bulgaria,” Mr. Kanev said. “They have an incentive to lie.”

But stories of abuse are so widespread that attention must be paid to them, refugee groups say.

“We have tried to raise our concerns with the Bulgarian authorities and sometimes directly with the police,” said Babar Baloch, a spokesman for the United Nations high commissioner for refugees, who was part of a recent delegation touring refugee centers in Bulgaria. “They come back and tell us that if there is credible evidence, they will act against those who are responsible.”

The temperatures are plummeting now, and the surge of people into Europe is slowing. Sea crossings to the Greek islands are down to an average of fewer than 3,000 people a day, less than a third of the traffic seen earlier in the fall. Some days, when the weather is especially bad or the Turkish authorities particularly vigilant, there are none.

And while Bulgaria has had about 10,000 arrivals this year — not counting those who were pushed back at the border — those numbers remained fairly flat through the fall and are showing signs of diminishing to more normal winter levels.

“Nearly three months ago, we had thousands of refugees coming to Edirne,” said Dursun Ali Sahin, the governor of Edirne Province in Turkey. “But today, we have only 180 refugees living in our guest quarters.”

Part of the reason is that the Turkish authorities have tightened their borders, reducing the flows into Greece and Bulgaria. Those who are caught are shipped back to Istanbul or scattered around the country.

All but a few miles of the 125-mile border between Turkey and Greece is a fast-moving river, with the balance blocked by a razor-wire fence.

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The western portions of the 170-mile Bulgaria-Turkey border are also fenced off and, at its eastern edge, the border is the Rezovo River, difficult to cross.

For the moment, though, there is no fence near Sukrupasa, residents say, just Bulgarian police outposts every 50 to 100 yards along the border, which is why it remains an attractive target for smugglers.

But in this landscape of narrow ravines, fast creeks and rugged hills, the crossing remains difficult. On a recent afternoon, a cluster of about 30 refugees rested on a road outside the village’s mosque. Several had been beaten and robbed by the Bulgarian police, they said, including one man whose nose was broken. Another man was bitten by police dogs, they said.

Having failed to cross, they were wet and cold from wading the river on their forlorn journey back into Turkey.

“Police took our phones and our money,” said Ahmad Safi, who, like more than half of the refugees using this route at the moment, comes from Afghanistan.

Another Afghan man, wearing only a T-shirt on the cold day, said the police stole his coat, too.


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/24/world/europe/bulgarian-border-police-accused-of-abusing-refugees.html?ref=world&_r=0

[panju1]

Exactly. The US is also sitting on a ticking time bomb as far as debt is concerned.
This will be far worse compared to the Greek debt crisis.

As long as the United States Dollar remains as the world reserve currency, and as long as the federal debt is sold in the form of long-term bonds with extreme-low interest, the Americans won't have much to worry about. Their relative debt repayment burden is still much lower, when compared to the other Western nations, such as Italy and France. 

The fact that the dollar is the world's reserve currency is the only saving grace.
When that ends, this time bomb s going off.

[bryant.coleman]

Bulgarian Border Police Accused of Abusing Refugees

Seriously... what do these migrants expect? Bulgaria was under Ottoman rule for many centuries. The men were forcibly recruited to the army (Janissaries), while the women ended up in the Turkish harems. And after all these, when these Muslim invaders appear once again at their border, do you expect the Bulgars to bend down and spread their legs?

[varusisog]

The Europe will be broken by refugee problem. So many people coming to Europe in short period will cause problems.

[Daniel91]

It's not clear yet.
Europe is in serious crisis now but it's not first time.
Remember First world War, WW ii etc?
Every time Europe managed to survive because of unity and common vision between members.
Europe still have time to unite again, find common goal and vision and move on but no so much time left.
I hope to see some positive changes in Europe soon.
Merkel is maybe only hope for Europe now, someone with clear vision what to do and how to guide Europe.

[bryant.coleman]

Every time Europe managed to survive because of unity and common vision between members.
Europe still have time to unite again, find common goal and vision and move on but no so much time left.

It was an entirely different situation during the WW2. The European states united against a common enemy back then. There is no common enemy right now. And also, the unity among the EU member nations is waning, as Merkel is forcibly imposing her views regarding immigration and multiculturalism on smaller Eastern European nations.

Merkel is maybe only hope for Europe now, someone with clear vision what to do and how to guide Europe.

Merkel will be remembered as the retarded dictator, who destroyed the European Union.

[vero]

Any details of the abuse the Bulgarian took from these illegal immigrants?? No one is willing to write about it. EU doesn't want you to know. They gagged the reporters with laws against talking about the Illegal Muslim immigrants.

[zenitzz]

Sweden to impose ID checks on travellers from Denmark

In a move to stem the flow of refugees, valid photo ID will be required for people travelling from Denmark for first time since 1950s

Sweden is set to drastically reduce the flow of refugees into the country by imposing strict identity checks on all travellers from Denmark, as Scandinavian countries compete with each other to shed their reputations as havens for asylum seekers.

For the first time since the 50s, from midnight on Sunday travellers by train, bus or boat will need to present a valid photo ID, such as a passport, to enter Sweden from its southern neighbour, with penalties for travel operators who fail to impose checks. Passengers who fail to present a satisfactory document will be turned back.

“The government now considers that the current situation, with a large number of people entering the country in a relatively short time, poses a serious threat to public order and national security,” the government said in a statement accompanying legislation enabling the border controls to take place.

The move marks a turning point for the Swedish ruling coalition of Social Democrats and Greens, which earlier presented itself as a beacon to people fleeing conflict and terror in Asia and the Middle East.

“My Europe takes in people fleeing from war, my Europe does not build walls,” Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven told crowds in Stockholm on 6 September. But three months and about 80,000 asylum seekers later, the migration minister told parliament: “The system cannot cope.”

Almost 163,000 people applied for asylum in Sweden in 2015, the highest in Europe as a proportion of the population. In the autumn, applications were running at 10,000 weekly. But Stockholm has made clear it wants to slash the flow to around 1,000 a week in 2016.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/03/sweden-to-impose-id-checks-on-travellers-from-denmark