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Author Topic: is it true? 30% of all Bitcoins owned by at most 100 people?  (Read 6399 times)
Jaime Frontero
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June 07, 2011, 04:13:05 PM
 #21

without them - without their willingness to take which was, at the time, an incredible risk - none of us would have anything.

an "incredible risk" to use some cpu time to generate coins?
Yet there is "zero risk" of the now-disappeared satoshi of simply buying up all the asks when he feels it has been a profitable enough project for him?

I think you need to re-evaluate your definition of risk.

thank you, but i'm quite happy with my definition of risk - which in this case would be the high probability of losing everything one owns.

but perhaps Bitcoin is not for you.  have you considered naked shorts on credit default-swap futures?
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rezin777
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June 07, 2011, 04:19:36 PM
 #22

Would you be looking at Bitcoin right now if it was only trading for .001 USD and there were a grand total of 2 websites that mention it? Probably not.

No, it was necessary to hook, line, and sinker a gullible public into a modern day ponzi scheme.

Ponzi shemes have public exchanges?
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June 07, 2011, 04:24:06 PM
 #23

I honestly don't see the problem with this. Obviously I'd prefer to have more Bitcoins than Alice or Bob and I'm naturally a bit envious of the early adopters who now are worth significantly more than the rest of us. So what? They took risk by buying bitcoins with no guarantees of future value. I took a (significantly) smaller risk by mining in the last few months and have gotten a significantly smaller return. I'd suggest that they use some of their Bitcoins to purchase items to strengthen the value of Bitcoin, but I can understand why they don't. Hoarding (temporarily taking currency out of circulation) isn't a huge problem because it slightly increases the value of the Bitcoins in circulation. Even if the Bitcoins are sold eventually at a high price, that also means that someone has to be buying at the same price, who might spend them. Alternately, if the hoarders wait until Bitcoin is worth $1000 and then buy a lifetime supply of pizza for a few Bitcoins, they still strengthen their value.
rezin777
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June 07, 2011, 04:26:13 PM
 #24

Ask another worthless question to avoid the issue?

The issue? I thought we were discussing early adopters. You are suggesting Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme. I would like you to prove it. This is central to the issue.
Jaime Frontero
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June 07, 2011, 04:27:34 PM
 #25

Ask another worthless question to avoid the issue?

that was an excellent one...
Jaime Frontero
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June 07, 2011, 04:39:32 PM
 #26

and I'm naturally a bit envious of the early adopters who now are worth significantly more than the rest of us. So what? They took risk by buying bitcoins with no guarantees of future value. I took a (significantly) smaller risk by mining in the last few months and have gotten a significantly smaller return.

You mention they took a risk by buying early on, yet you took less risk by mining later on. Except they didn't buy, they mined at 1/100,000th the difficulty. There is quite a difference.

Quote
I'd suggest that they use some of their Bitcoins to purchase items to strengthen the value of Bitcoin, but I can understand why they don't. Hoarding (temporarily taking currency out of circulation) isn't a huge problem because it slightly increases the value of the Bitcoins in circulation.

Of course it's not a problem. It was intended from the start. Otherwise why would the original adopters have not spent ANY bitcoins? Perhaps it's because it's one of the 8 or 20 different ways they built into the system to artificially drive up scarcity, and thus the price?

"There's a GPU in every computer that can do these calculations orders of magnitudes faster than CPUs? I had no idea. :blush:"

The issue? I thought we were discussing early adopters. You are suggesting Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme. I would like you to prove it. This is central to the issue.

We are not discussing early adopters. We are discussing the power over the economy the early adopters have. The information to prove that is self-evident. The question is simply if, or when, they will use it. Absolute power corrupts and all that jazz.

ah.  the 'Gish Gallop'.
rezin777
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June 07, 2011, 04:50:56 PM
 #27

We are not discussing early adopters. We are discussing the power over the economy the early adopters have. The information to prove that is self-evident. The question is simply if, or when, they will use it. Absolute power corrupts and all that jazz.

Power over a market and ponzi scheme are not the same thing. And again, I ask: what do you mean by "use it"? Am I correct that you are suggesting they would dump a load of coins on market for whatever the market will bear? (I don't know why you insist I assume things when it's so simple to tell me.)

Err... their power isn't even close to absolute. They can try to sell their coins for whatever someone is willing to pay.

Have you considered that large wallets may already be factored into the price? I mean, it's public knowledge.
Jaime Frontero
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June 07, 2011, 05:07:34 PM
 #28

ah.  the 'Gish Gallop'.

Argument: The early adopters (depending on your definition) control 30-50% of the entire economy
You: Prove it
Argument: There are several subtle and not-so-subtle designs in the system that drive up the scarcity of bitcoins
You: Prove it
Argument: Any one of the early adopters, at any time, could choose to buy up everything available and crash the market
You: Prove it

You: Buy bitcoins, look at the returns on investment!! SOLID BUY!! LOLL!!!!

Quote
Argument: The early adopters (depending on your definition) control 30-50% of the entire economy

so what?  five banks control 90% of the entire worlds' economies.  and early adopters don't 'control' any part of the economy other than through those bitcoin-based businesses they own.

Quote
Argument: There are several subtle and not-so-subtle designs in the system that drive up the scarcity of bitcoins

and?  (n.b.: investigate the meaning of 'level playing field')

Quote
Argument: Any one of the early adopters, at any time, could choose to buy up everything available and crash the market

how does one crash a market by buying everything available that's offered for sale in it?  and how do 'early adopters' use their bitcoin to buy bitcoin?

you're an idiot.  or a paid troll.  probably both.

have a nice day.
nuggets4all
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June 07, 2011, 05:17:29 PM
 #29

People who yell "Ponzi scheme!" clearly have no understanding of what a Ponzi scheme is. A Ponzi scheme involves one or a few people at the top of a pyramid selling shares in a fraudulent "investment." With Bitcoin, anyone can create some and sell them. Unlike shares in a Ponzi scheme, Bitcoins represent something of actual value: an increasingly popular medium of exchange.

1FmU8DBU7CpM4jqNMeMvwtVBKjuyyDLWss
rezin777
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June 07, 2011, 05:26:25 PM
 #30

If you and others with a vested interest say so, then it must be true. I love the definition on the wiki of a ponzi scheme:

So give me your definition of a ponzi scheme.

:coy: :shy: yes you got me. That is what I was so cleverly intimating even though I said it a few posts prior to someone else.


You mean where you said:

Or, more likely, you just stand to lose all of your "money"

Oh right, because if someone sells a bunch of Bitcoins to other people who are willing to pay for them, Bitcoins will be worth nothing!

Imagine 10 years from now and mining gives 12.5BTC among the 100,000 users that are desperate to earn them. BTC is $1000 per coin, and there is a volume of 500,000 asks for around that price. Satoshi uses 1/5th, that's right 1/5th of wallet numero uno to buy the entire market, make $500,000,000, and BTC becomes worthless. "But, gosh, that could never happen, satoshi believes in BTC and that's why he spends so much time on the forums discussing the future of BTC."

OK, still don't see the problem. Do you fear rich people or free markets or what? You are worried about Bitcoins dropping in value in comparison to the USD because someone has the potential to sell a lot of them? Don't invest in Bitcoins. Pretty easy fix there.

If it's public knowledge, why isn't it in the wiki? In fact, the wiki is almost intentionally misleading:

I don't know, I didn't write the wiki. Nor would I use it as a sole means of information to decide if I should invest in a new currency. I certainly wouldn't recommend anyone else do that either. Why don't you fix it so that it isn't almost intentionally misleading anymore?


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June 07, 2011, 05:45:27 PM
 #31

People who yell "Ponzi scheme!" clearly have no understanding of what a Ponzi scheme is.

Clearly. This is a "bitcoin scheme!" Just because the variables are tweaked doesn't mean the end game isn't the same.


Clearly, indeed.  You and your bearish compatriots should tell this to the many other forums, warning others from bidding up; uh, I mean from buying bitcoins.  I guess I'll just have to take that risk, myself!  Oh, the burden of being an advocate!

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
Maged
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June 07, 2011, 05:46:58 PM
 #32

and I'm naturally a bit envious of the early adopters who now are worth significantly more than the rest of us. So what? They took risk by buying bitcoins with no guarantees of future value. I took a (significantly) smaller risk by mining in the last few months and have gotten a significantly smaller return.

You mention they took a risk by buying early on, yet you took less risk by mining later on. Except they didn't buy, they mined at 1/100,000th the difficulty. There is quite a difference.
Not really. All that electricity they used? It was almost certain that they'd never be able to pay that back. All the new computers they bought just to mine? Same thing. But most important was their investment of time. Imagine searching for documentation when the only bitcoin site that existed was this forum. Literally NONE of the things we take for granted were around back then.

rezin777
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June 07, 2011, 05:49:01 PM
 #33

You know that whole artificial scarcity thing I talked about? It kinda ties into that if you are paying attention.

What more do you want. The information is public. I suggest anyone planning on investing in anything do some research or be prepared for a massive slap in the face (and wallet).

No, I am worried about bitcoins dropping in value in comparison to the USD because someone has the potential to sell a lot of them that are worthless. The effort and energy required to make 1BTC is 100,000x more than it was a year and a half ago. Yet those BTC from a year and a half ago are "worth" 100,000x more. And this of course only will grow if BTC becomes more popular and computer hardware becomes more powerful.

Again, they aren't worthless. Without them we wouldn't be where we are today. If you can't understand the importance and value of the early adopters, we might as well stop talking.

But in the mean time, you and others will do your best to convince those less savvy that bitcoin is built on a solid foundation and it is a good buy, won't you?

No, why would you say that? I'm trying to tell you that if you are nervous about people holding a large amount of Bitcoins, don't buy Bitcoins! I would tell anyone the same thing! What more do you want? Value is subjective. Nothing is solid. Diversification is key.
theymos
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June 07, 2011, 06:35:48 PM
 #34

The number has decreased a bit since then. The current number is 1,955,255.34766447 BTC controlled by the top 100 addresses.

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Perhaps a more interesting figure is that 48924 generations are unspent. Three-fourths of these are before block #70,000. I can provide a complete list if someone wants to make a nice graph.

1NXYoJ5xU91Jp83XfVMHwwTUyZFK64BoAD
TraderTimm
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June 07, 2011, 06:37:26 PM
 #35


I understand their importance. But if this were actually a cavalier venture into developing an open source cryptocurrency, they could have simply asked for donations instead of building in a pyramid of wealth and declaring it a matter of deflationary economics. Seriously, what is the deal with satoshi's disappearance?


He/She probably wanted some peace from shrill alarmists until the system proved itself. That, and not being a visible target when governments finally figure out that they've been rooted to the core.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
rezin777
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June 07, 2011, 06:49:30 PM
 #36

Just doing my part so that it is more obvious than not.

Fair enough. But you are also being dishonest when you suggest Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme. I don't understand how a voluntary, p2p, decentralized, open source, digital currency project that has a complete and total history of transactions and is openly traded on public exchanges could possibly be misconstrued as a ponzi scheme. Anyone who does is either ignorant or dishonest (perhaps both). I don't care how many people enthusiastically promote it.

I understand their importance. But if this were actually a cavalier venture into developing an open source cryptocurrency, they could have simply asked for donations instead of building in a pyramid of wealth and declaring it a matter of deflationary economics. Seriously, what is the deal with satoshi's disappearance?

Huh? I use Bitcoin because of it's properties (early adopters and all). If it were something else, I wouldn't use it.

Quote
No, why would you say that? I'm trying to tell you that if you are nervous about people holding a large amount of Bitcoins, don't buy Bitcoins! I would tell anyone the same thing! What more do you want? Value is subjective. Nothing is solid. Diversification is key.

While the majority of the those large Bitcoin owners will want to invest in the security of the Bitcoin network, my concern is with the potential for manipulation of the market.  A few bad apples could spoil it for all of us, IMHO.

How?

Uhh... OK? Are you suggesting that by asking you to elaborate on what potential you see for manipulation of the market that I was convincing a less savvy person that Bitcoin is built on solid foundations and a good buy? That's quite a stretch.

Bitcoin is a good buy for me because it has properties that I value quite a lot. It's up to you to determine whether Bitcoin is a good buy for you or not.
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