1) is it still profitable (or atleast break-even-able) to order 2 basic's now (and have them, i suppose, around end of january somehwere)
That's like a farmer asking if there will be enough rain next season to cause a profitable harvest.
It is true that once ASICs ship in volume, they'll end up being responsible for a huge percent of the hashing capacity (90% to 98% even). And thus those who start mining with ASICs first will be incredibly much more profitable than those who don't receive ASICs until hashing capacity has already reached the stratosphere.
That doesn't mean an ASIC can't still be "profitable" (e.g., revenues minus expenses and amortization of the hardware over a year or two) but the later ones won't see the one-month to break-even that was at one time looking possible.
The problem is, no manufacturers are shipping today, and there's know knowing what place in line you end up at when you do have an order in with a manufacturer that starts shipping.
And don't overlook the possibility that the first version of hardware will get absolutely trounced (either with higher performance or lower price) by version two.
So just know, buying an ASIC is taking a gamble on one manufacturer over another, a gamble on how much capacity in total from all manufacturers will be delivered, and the future exchange rate.
