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Question: Who or what is responsible for the major dumps happening over the last week?  Please explain your reasoning.
Someone with no agenda just trying to sell their bitcoin
Someone that has found a way to short bitcoin in large amounts
Someone that is long trying to manipulate and scare cheaper BTC out of the market
A bot trying to generate profit
A mining pool owner
A government
MTGox trying to create volume and thereby fees
A bunch of people just panicking
Other

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Author Topic: Most likely source of the major dumps?  (Read 2845 times)
annette786 (OP)
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December 14, 2012, 07:22:36 PM
 #1

You get two votes per user.  I'm also allowing people to change their votes based on discussion.
notme
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December 14, 2012, 07:24:51 PM
 #2

Major, long term investor who's bitcoin holdings became a bit overweight in his portfolio.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
annette786 (OP)
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December 14, 2012, 07:30:16 PM
 #3

I must say that I strongly suspect MTgox.

I don't believe there is any economic incentive to dump BTC like this as a long investor.  It has to be someone that is getting massive amounts of BTC without buying them.

MTGox makes money off trading and dumps like this creates massive trading days and brings out traders.
notme
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December 14, 2012, 07:33:24 PM
 #4

I must say that I strongly suspect MTgox.

I don't believe there is any economic incentive to dump BTC like this as a long investor.  It has to be someone that is getting massive amounts of BTC without buying them.

MTGox makes money off trading and dumps like this creates massive trading days and brings out traders.

I really need to set up that tin foil hat for btc store I've been thinking about.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
imanikin
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December 14, 2012, 07:45:50 PM
 #5

I must say that I strongly suspect MTgox.
+1 MtG has always been suspected, and will continue to be. Every xchange has incentive to do that.
It will be impossible to prove until Bitcoin is big enough that the government regulators move in.

That also means that a lot of people still have more than enough fiat to pump and dump for dollars or Bitcoin.

annette786 (OP)
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December 14, 2012, 08:01:48 PM
 #6

By the walls being setup-- someone, without question, wants you to sell your BTC.
Ichthyo
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December 14, 2012, 08:05:05 PM
 #7

I really need to set up that tin foil hat for btc store I've been thinking about.

Oh yeah...
Want another conspiracy theory?

Tomorrow is the first ICBIT future settled. Someone wants to manipulate the Mt.Gox rate down,
maybe just by 0.50 in order to make huge profit from leveraged futures shorted at 13.50

just kidding...
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December 14, 2012, 08:09:44 PM
 #8

Anything stop someone from selling and buying between multiple accounts to try and create fake volume?

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December 14, 2012, 08:13:02 PM
 #9

Anything stop someone from selling and buying between multiple accounts to try and create fake volume?

MtGox fees.
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December 14, 2012, 08:15:58 PM
 #10

Surely the news that mtgox's Jed and prosper.com founder Chris's joint venture to develop a "better" alternative coin has nothing to do with the dump, for sure.

btc: 15sFnThw58hiGHYXyUAasgfauifTEB1ZF6
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December 14, 2012, 08:17:29 PM
 #11

Maybe it just hit a sell price for some peers?

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December 14, 2012, 08:21:38 PM
 #12

Surely the news that mtgox's Jed and prosper.com founder Chris's joint venture to develop a "better" alternative coin has nothing to do with the dump, for sure.

link?

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December 14, 2012, 08:23:56 PM
 #13

Surely the news that mtgox's Jed and prosper.com founder Chris's joint venture to develop a "better" alternative coin has nothing to do with the dump, for sure.

link?
It's not a coin...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=128413.0
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December 14, 2012, 08:25:51 PM
 #14

Surely the news that mtgox's Jed and prosper.com founder Chris's joint venture to develop a "better" alternative coin has nothing to do with the dump, for sure.

link?
It's not a coin...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=128413.0

Oh Ripple

johnwhitestar
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December 14, 2012, 08:29:10 PM
 #15

I was thinking it's the end of month + end of the year dump.
Another reason from my point of view is the continuous heating of the news about the eminent release of the ASICs  (which is not necessary true).

myself
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December 14, 2012, 08:52:38 PM
 #16

http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/mpex.php

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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December 14, 2012, 09:05:23 PM
 #17

I was thinking it's the end of month + end of the year dump.

In the U.S. there are big changes coming to the tax rates.  

So if you are in the U.S. and reporting your capital gains on your taxes, it is better to cause that transaction to occur in 2012 while the rate is lower.

Quote
Federal taxes on ordinary income [which includes assets held less than a year] will rise to as much as 39.6 percent from 35 percent. Long-term capital gains rates will increase to a maximum 20 percent from 15 percent, plus an additional 3.8 percent for high-income earners as a result of the 2010 health-care law.
- http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-19/wealthy-advised-to-sell-for-gains-before-unfriendly-2013

So if you had bought a bunch a little over a year ago at the $2 to $4 range, they couldn't have been "long term" until they were held for a year.    So this is the first time that someone with a sizeable investment in bitcoins from late 2011 has been able to cash them out but still be classified as long-term gains.

They aren't so much worried about losing out on further gains as in locking in the gains they've already accumulated but taking advantage of the lower tax rate.


Unichange.me

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December 14, 2012, 09:09:56 PM
 #18

In the U.S. there are big changes coming to the tax rates.  

So if you are in the U.S. and reporting your capital gains on your taxes, it is better to cause that transaction to occur in 2012 while the rate is lower.



How many people have records of how much BTC they bought and when? What documentation will the IRS accept?

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December 14, 2012, 09:26:43 PM
 #19

How many people have records of how much BTC they bought and when? What documentation will the IRS accept?

With Mt. Gox, if I remember correctly for 2011 tax year the account holder could request that an IRS 1099-B report be generated for them.

Unichange.me

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01BTC10
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December 14, 2012, 09:28:58 PM
 #20

Maybe a merchant that need to convert from BTC to USD no matter what.
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