Dec 31 to Jan 12 Diff thread picks closed.

[pusttiu]

hello
+6.2 =pusttiu
happy new year miners....

[1715374970]

1715374970

[RichBC]

Good Morning from the UK and time for a last minute pick. We have been quite stable over the last 3 days with the run rate between 3% & 5%, so that looks to be the range to be in. The question is will the recent turmoil on the Chinese Stock Market and resultant increase in BTC encourage some more hash onto the network?

So that encourages me towards the top end of the range. 5% & 5.1% are taken so it's between 4.9% & 5.2%? Hmmm I will go for...

+ 5.2% = RichBC

[vortexz]

looks like hash is still going down a bit, maybe this diff we will have a small + (5-6%), and hopefully next difficulty we will be in the negative by a fraction

[skuser]

looks like hash is still going down a bit, maybe this diff we will have a small + (5-6%), and hopefully next difficulty we will be in the negative by a fraction

I doubt it. Looking at charts here http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png or at http://nextdifficulty.com the daily hashrate fluctuates between 700 and 1000 PH/s which could mean the 'real' hashrate as average of tops and bottoms is somewhere about 850 PH/s. That would mean the difficulty should go up to 120 mlns at following diff change at the latest. So with next difficulty jump under 10% there will be another +5 or more following.

[flikflak]

Today is a good day for bitfury. They got 18 blocks so far and its half time.


Date             Blocks mined (24h)      Temps (°F) hi/lo

Jan. 03                  20               unknown
Jan. 04                  33               33.3/-20.4
Jan. 05                  23                  37/31
Jan. 06                  13                 49/33
Jan. 07                  10                 46/37
Jan. 08         est 25-35           est51/38


This is not enough data yet, but there seems to be a correlation.

[philipma1957]

+4.4%   = philipma1957
+4.5%   = lolxxxx

+4.7%   = radiumsoup

+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals
+5.2% = RichBC
+5.5%   = Quickseller

+5.7%   = Kilo17
+6.2%   = pusttiu
+6.3%   = tertius993

+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.7%   = Biodom
+6.8 %  = vortexz
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.0%   = mavericklm >>>>>>>   not your first pick of 8.0 that was taken
+7.1%   = alh >>>>>>>>>>>>   not your first pick of 7.4 that was taken
+7.2%   =Tmdz
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%   = zebedee
+7.9%   = HerbPean
+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.4%   = needmoney
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.6%   = page14

+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.1%   = wlefever
+9.2%  =  tss

+9.5%   =  gkv9

+9.7%   =  fr4nkthetank
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.



Picks end in  about 5 hours at 816.



[/quote]
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[Kexkey]

Is it too late to get in?

+8.7% = Kexkey

[philipma1957]

Is it too late to get in?

+8.7% = Kexkey

sorry you missed it.

[adaseb]

Today not looking so good, if this keeps up we are looking at a +15% or so. Guess it got colder in Russia

[Lituation]

I missed the picks but I'm very certain that this round there will be a winner. It'll be under %10 and almost all slots filled already.

[adaseb]

I missed the picks but I'm very certain that this round there will be a winner. It'll be under %10 and almost all slots filled already.

Today ended being +16.2%, so if this continues most likely we will see at least +10% diff increase in the next 5 days.

[notlist3d]

I missed the picks but I'm very certain that this round there will be a winner. It'll be under %10 and almost all slots filled already.

Today ended being +16.2%, so if this continues most likely we will see at least +10% diff increase in the next 5 days.

Hopefully it does not continue.  We have been up and down a tad but seems 450 is steady for the moment.  Winter mining might be harder then I expected.

I thought summer mining was going to be tough for me but I was able to do it.   And it had a  nice low rate increase, which now we have a cray high one. 

[RichBC]

I missed the picks but I'm very certain that this round there will be a winner. It'll be under %10 and almost all slots filled already.

Today ended being +16.2%, so if this continues most likely we will see at least +10% diff increase in the next 5 days.

Hopefully it does not continue.  We have been up and down a tad but seems 450 is steady for the moment.  Winter mining might be harder then I expected.

I thought summer mining was going to be tough for me but I was able to do it.   And it had a  nice low rate increase, which now we have a cray high one. 

Yes after 3 quite stable days with the run rate being nicely between 3% & 5%, just after Picks closed.... the rate has been steadily rising, now at 6%, with no pull back yet. We will see how long this continues?


Rich

[fr4nkthetank]

We can only hope the chinese gov thugs shut down f2pool and antpool and bitmaintech for not paying proper taxes huehuehue.  now that would be fun times.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom is not horrible:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:    111,965,941,024 (+7.78%)
Adjust time:    After 560 Blocks, About 3.6 days
Hashrate(?):    806,506,049 GH/s

Still hope that is high though.  Price took a little bit of a dive and is at 444,  it looks pretty steep on daily.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


141  12-31  
133  1-1
143  1-2
151  1-3
178  1-4
155  1 - 5
147  1- 6
140   1- 7
172    1 - 8
155   1 - 9

not terrible above or below


 http://bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks   392590
Total BTC   15.065M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   107980874852 in 530 blks ------  this comes to  3.94%
 
Network total   853673.572 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.89 / 523 s


at 3.94% my 4.4 pick is the closest number.

top contenders below

+4.4%   = philipma1957
+4.5%   = lolxxxx

+4.7%   = radiumsoup

+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals
+5.2% = RichBC
+5.5%   = Quickseller

+5.7%   = Kilo17
+6.2%   = pusttiu
+6.3%   = tertius993

[adaseb]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


141  12-31  
133  1-1
143  1-2
151  1-3
178  1-4
155  1 - 5
147  1- 6
140   1- 7
172    1 - 8
155   1 - 9

not terrible above or below


 http://bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks   392590
Total BTC   15.065M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   107980874852 in 530 blks ------  this comes to  3.94%
 
Network total   853673.572 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.89 / 523 s


at 3.94% my 4.4 pick is the closest number.

top contenders below

+4.4%   = philipma1957
+4.5%   = lolxxxx

+4.7%   = radiumsoup

+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals
+5.2% = RichBC
+5.5%   = Quickseller

+5.7%   = Kilo17
+6.2%   = pusttiu
+6.3%   = tertius993

You sure its accurate? Bitcoinwisdom and nextdifficulty.com say its close to 10%

Conservative: 10.5% 10.9% Continous: 12 %

[skuser]

nextdifficulty.com number is based on last 1500 blocks which we already finished in this adjustment period so there is not even enough time to drop to 5%. Another 10%+ period is more than real. Only positive thing is I don't see new record peaks in short term hashrate so things could calm a bit in next days.

edit: there seems nextdifficulty.com had some timeout glitch and shows 6.6% now, so it won't be that bad

[Mikestang]

We can only hope the chinese gov thugs shut down f2pool and antpool and bitmaintech for not paying proper taxes huehuehue.  now that would be fun times.

Putting on my speculation hat - That would be a loss of most of the network, and given the maximum difficulty adjustments allowed each period by the code it could take a while for difficulty to drop to a point where blocks were found ~10 minutes again.  Not that I would be complaining...

[RichBC]

What I like about this is that there are on the Web and in this group so many different ways of trying to forecast the change. It is of course impossible as no system can guess the additional Hash that is constantly being added & removed from the network. We know the trend is likely to be up at the moment but that's about it.

So my spreadsheet had us at a run rate of between 3% & 5% for the 3 Days prior to picks closing at Block 1200. I then guessed just above that range at 5.2% allowing for a little more Hash to be added. Almost immediately the rate went up and Yesterday we moved between 5% & 6% which is quite tight so I expect to see that expand a bit either up or hopefully down.

I make us at the moment at 6.25% and am waiting to see the new band emerge. I think unfortunately we are likely to go a little higher so if I was guessing at the moment it would be 6.5% - 7%


Rich