Bitcoin Forum

Just setting up thread.


We have .9 btc in funds left after I pay last diff's winner.

 same start up prize 0.10 btc  

 same pick idea  

+0.1 = philipma1957
+0.2 = notlist3d
+0.3 = sidehack

as high or as low as you want.

no new members  you must have opened your account before  Oct 31st  it must have 30 posts.  It must not have  a recent password change.

spacer

old thread is here:



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1294704.0;all


payment to the winner was made 0.416 btc    

This will be the highest prize given as I will stop  new rollovers at max of .2 or .3 btc

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1294704.msg13411292#msg13411292

picks start at block 600 and end at block 1200.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   116,936,764,551 (+12.57%)
Adjust time:   After 1978 Blocks, About 13.0 days      The  picks  start when it says 1416 here and end when it says 816 here
Hashrate(?):   731,282,739 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.8 minutes
Updated:   12:35 (4.2 minutes ago)

Value of BTC is around 430 at start of this thread.  Hopefully we see a push in price upwards.

This new trend to be 10+ percent difficulty really needs price to follow or eventually it's going to be hard to make profit's.

At this moment the real diff for this period is negative.

Bitcoin wisdom has a wrong high number.  It uses the last 500 blocks at the beginning of each prediction.

We made 141 blocks today.

We will need to watch carefully as the last two huge numbers have a lot to do with bitfury and the 40 megawatt plant they built.

I want people to understand that 141 blocks on the new diff is about 157 blocks on the last diff.

Now we have still watched big up swings and down swings.  I have been watch the temps near the Russian bitfury plant as I suspect the warm winter is causing that plant some problems.

Should be fun to watch.

Also here is a good question if bitfury has a 200 to 275 ph plant in one spot is that good or bad for the network?

Seems to me it is not a good idea to have that much hash in one spot.

Very bad idea, if one spot blow up and that make a big wave for the network, then its bad. I hope their setup fail. xD

141 blocks today

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

First numbers are good see chart

https://i.imgur.com/A4nEpfi.png

let us not forget how huge antpool and f2pool are getting aswell.. I honestly dont think this is all bitfury.. a decent portion of it im sure. But antpool and f2pool who are both backed by manufacturers are also in the mix.. Look at antpool.  https://antpool.com/home.htm they are reporting 200 ph on their pool now..  I have to go here to get f2pool but i see a pattern for sure..http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/7d?c=m&t=a hover over the graph and watch the speeds of bitfury antpool and f2pool.. you can see which ones have the biggest swings.. It is indeed bitfury.. but what we are not noticing is the huge and steady growth of the mega pools.  Those aren't us small miners adding petahashes at a time.. its the greedy manufacturers letting it get the best of them.. 

Best Regards
d57heinz

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+11.41%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   115,736,702,762 (+11.41%)
Adjust time:   After 1859 Blocks, About 12.5 days
Hashrate(?):   720,421,695 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.0 minutes
6 blocks: 58.0 minutes
Updated:   9:0 (2.5 minutes ago)


The above is pretty far off

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   391261
Total BTC   15.032M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   103788427798 in 1859 blks >>>>>>>>   we are actually negative!
 
Network total   700212.073 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.65 / 637 s

I would love to see a negative.  I'm tired of 10+ level it really is not fun to see multiple weeks.  But not much I can do to change it just watch and speculate.

Price is 430's and seems to be staying in that area for a bit.  So better then the 400 area but still not a huge jump, I really want 450 this period.  I just want a new wall  set up higher but sometimes price does move slow.

Looks like today will end as a negative day also. Finally 2 negative days in a row. Maybe we will get a break next difficiulty adjustment and end up flat.

It could go back to under 5%    .  I pretty much have been saying this was bitfury's 180 to 225 ph farm the last two jumps.

If I am right we should be okay until others put in a monster farm.

The s-7 and avalon 6 sales  do not kill us the super farms do.

In North America in the last 3 days there was a heat wave so many that's why some gear is powered off like Bitfurys.

the heat wave was last adjustment not this adjustment.

but if you check Russia where the  bitfury plant is it has been pretty cold around 40f.

so the heat wave idea is not so much of a reason why you have a negative.

remember we have just had 2 big jumps.  most of which can be placed to bitfury.



Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900      8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> bitfury said 40 megawatt farm went online
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180           5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450      2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s



So 566 ph jumps to 743 ph     about 180ph


I figure bitmaintech sales and avalon sales in that time to be a max of 10,000 units or 40-50 ph

so the minimum of  130-140 ph = bitfury

Since the Nov 11 date was the first big jump  the network moved from 445 to 743  say 300ph.

lets say bitfury started slow build up    at the 445 mark and added 200 ph and all other gear was 100 ph   this is just about the entire jump  and we could

go flat. for 2 jumps or all of jan  2016.

also tax laws vary but getting the gear online like mad in 2015 could have a lot of tax advantages for the big companies.

All spec on my part .  The good thing is maybe jan is a 2 % and a 2 % jump and then we do a rush in feb.

Just to show how difficult it was to predict the last 14 Day period. Here is my plot of every block with each point calculated using the Block times for all the blocks in the period so far.

http://www.slotforum.com/forums/uploads/1450698776/gallery_2150_2322_47413.jpg

With picks open from 600 to 1200 you can see how difficult it was and even right up to the last few blocks how you could easily miss the correct value.  :)
At least we are running nicely negative at the moment, the same plot is on -5.5% at the moment.

Rich

well if think that someone was setting up 225ph and could not get it to run perfectly it does explain the crazy movement up and down.

As you say it was all over the place. In oct or sept  2014 bitfury put up a big farm and we had out last 20% jump.

First  full day was very good.  My buddy here can't figure this out!

https://i.imgur.com/yisndlb.gif

He is full of  ???


Note: Gif is from member amalref


https://i.imgur.com/LWCSduD.png

Don't know if Bitmain  is up to something but Antpool just hit 7 blocks on the trot?



Average time between Blocks 5 1/2 Mins...


Rich

The network has shown us in the last two months that  the big players can crank it up quite a bit.

391414 (Main Chain)   2016-01-02 17:11:01
391317 (Main Chain)   2016-01-02 00:00:19

but for today   we are 17 hours and 25 minutes in that is 104 blocks

and we have made 98 so far.


real short peeks at blocks 2 hours  or less are pretty worth less variance will rule in a short burst.

3 day peeks have meaning.

BTW  I am pretty sure that bitfury points some of its 200ph + hash at f2pool and antpool in an effort to hide that is is making close to 50 blocks a day with that 40 megawatt farm.

It would make sense for them to split it, I think you might be right.  It could make it seem more decentralized by doing it instead of doing all under their own name.   Both of those allow PPS so they might be going that route.

Antpool I think had an attack yesterday from what I read it stopped site but not mining.  Not 100 percent sure on it.  But if anyone does not read the pool forum can be interesting on a few of the threads even if you just lurk there like me.

yeah no reason for them to not point 25ph at both pools.  and 150ph at their own  thus the block counts do not look so slanted.


Plus people think it means both avalon sixes and s-7's are feeding the growth of f2pool and antpool when in fact so is bit fury gear.
 We are in a very interesting time for BTC as the big builders of asics have really locked down sales and constricted development of the chips they make in an effort to max profits before the ½ ing.

It would be so easy for asic builders to sell naked chips  much like intel or amd sell psu's.  Yet for now none of them do this.

I can buy 1 to 10,000 intel cpu's  with ease
I can buy 1 to 10.000 amd cpu's with ease.

I can't buy 1 to 10,000 asic chips.

http://www.amazon.com/21-INC-21BC1-Bitcoin-Computer/dp/B014RD021C/ref=sr_1_1?s=pc&ie=UTF8&qid=1451760671&sr=1-1&keywords=21+bitcoin+computer

perfect example I want the chip in this gear nothing else.  a big fuck you we won't sell it in lots of 1 or 10 or 100 or 1000


photo of the chip mounted on a board in that pc.  that chip can do 8 watts and 50gh  since it claims to be .16 per gh

a two  chip build  with 1 heat sink  could  do 100gh at 16 watts

 well maybe  just maybe 1 chip could be the best  usb stick ever

https://i.imgur.com/yj17GS7.png

Someone just turned the tap back on... In the last 3 Hours we have gone from a running rate of -6% to -3%.

Rich

I'm glad you're doing this, I would vote for 0.2 max to keep the funds alive as long as possible.

This exponential network growth is truly amazing.  10% of 10% of 10% really adds up fast.

I have .9 btc to give away so 9 more adjustments and we are done.  

(unless my mining picks up) ----  I am so fucked mining on mmpool.org  Stuck more then 10 btc. I  truly need us to find  a block on that pool.


BTW https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  --- (+8.26%)  way off  they use the last 500 blocks from the prior jump so that number is really high.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   112,464,469,621 (+8.26%) way high
Adjust time:   After 1668 Blocks, About 11.7 days
Hashrate(?):   722,213,465 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   18:10 (1.7 minutes ago)


Real time below

http://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   391453
Total BTC   15.036M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   103106281319 in 1667 blks   we are negative  0.745%  at this moment.
 
Network total   769163.947 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.21 / 580 s


my early guess is  + 8.26   and -0.745 =  7.515/2 or   +3.7575%     not bad if I am correct still early only 450 block made.

Today will end up as flat for the day at negative or 0%. Don't know about tomorrow or for the rest of the period however.

yep as I believe at least 50 maybe 100 ph is offline at this moment.  so we could do 144 blocks or 134 blocks or 170 blocks on sunday.

The diff picks are a different game then the have been as power on power off appears to be real and to be practiced.

I am still not quite sure as to the why of it.

I'm glad they're having problem with their center, but it must still sting to have so much hardware not mining. Thats a pretty hefty loss per day.

well remember when you have 20 % of the network and move to 30% of the network  you are mining against your self.


Here is what I mean  20% of 100 = 20   to go to 30%     30 of 110 is not high enough.  it is only 27.27%   


 so if you have 20 of 100 and 20% 

you need 34.3  of 114.3  to be 30%


so to move up to 30% of the blocks  in a diff adjustment  which is  604.8 blocks  vs   20% of the blocks 403.2

you need to raise your hash by 71.5%    say 20 to 34.3   yet your blocks go up 50%      403.2 + 201.6  is 50%

so at  a certain point increase of hash is not as good as you think.

A better example is 20% to 40%      or 403.2 blocks to 806.4 blocks   

  just double the hash from 20 of 100 to 40 of 120 nope

try 20 of 100 to     53.3 of 133.3      that is 2.65 x 1 of your hash to 2x your blocks


             so  you start to compete against your own hashrate.

@philipma1957

Sure, but thats always the case - even with <0.5% of the network and moving it to ~1% (like kano did). Now for Bitfury every generated block before the halving counts and I can't belive they are slowing it down for a reason. They have to compete with other pools like antpool. And if your competitor can deliver 18% more hashrate (from 170 PH/s to 200 PH/s), then you have to match it - if you can't, you are losing the "game" in the long run. I don't think that the 1st gen of 16nm chips is much more efficient than current 28nm chips with 0.25 J/GH @ the wall.

you math is wrong if you think that moving from .5 % to 1% is the same as moving from 20% to 40%.


When you have 1/ 200  of the network you would earn 10.08 blocks  out of 2016  that is .5%

so to go to 1 %  you need.  2.03/201.03 (rounded number)     so gear wise to 2x you block share    you need to 2.03  x  your gear a small penalty


but when you are 20% of the blocks  if you want 40% of the blocks or 2x you blocks you need 2.65 x the gear. A big penalty.


so it becomes more expensive to 2x your share at 20% to 40%  then .5% to 1%

So bitfury has much more difficulty in increasing its share of the network. Then kano pool does.

They need to weigh how much gear to turn on since the gear does not earn more blocks. With out a extra cost.



2.03 x your gear at .5%  makes your blocks go 2 x to 1%   kano.is  the extra price in gear is small

2.65 x your gear  at 20% makes your blocks go 2 x to 40% bitfury  the extra price in gear is bigger.




Does anyone disagree with this math?  If you do disagree  you are going to have to learn it is the right math or live with a false idea.  

 It is true and the biggest reason companies do not go much over 30% of the network as a farmer/miner.  The extra hash does not increase blocks on a linear basis.

to go from 20% of the blocks to 50%   is a factor of 2.5  so  

20/100   is 20%    It needs to become 80/160 to be 50%

so your gear is 20  and you raised it to 80    you 4x your gear  and only 2x your coins

So if bitfury is truly 225ph  of 725ph  that is 31% of the network  or  around 625 blocks an adjustment.

if they can go to 300ph    it would be   300 of 800ph or 37.5   percent     that is about   756 blocks

so  they add 75ph to get 131 blocks more

or they let 225ph get  625 block now  simple math says   if 225 ph earns 625 blocks now  they are earning 208.33 blocks for each 75ph piece they already have.

adding the next 75ph earns   only 131 blocks  which is 77 blocks lower.

They do not have to add that 75 ph in reserve.  They will wait one or two jumps let the network grow just a bit and simply slowly add the 75ph in a bit at a time keeping at 30% or 29% or less.

Since growing past 30% become really fucking costly.

Well, I dont disagree. I just meant that:


this is always the case. Even growing from 0.5% to 1% of the networkspeed. Those additional 0.5% are only 0.4975% worth then ;D. This goes on and on as long new or better gear hits the network.

Yeah it can be hard to be fully clear on the net without crazy long posts.

You are correct that  from .5 to 1 you pay penalties

Your numbers are much more impressive than my humble ones - I have to admit that ;). To push a pool from 20% to 40% takes a lot more than just double the pool speed, because the networkspeed is rising with it.

Thanks for showing this - I've never thought about it until you mentioned it.  

reserved.

From the looks of it, the difficulty might actually decrease a little bit this period.

This would probably be a nice change for those who are mining after 3 of the last 4 were double digit increases and the single digit increase was over 8.7%.

I am curious to know what the projects are for the difficulty change for the year, especially considering the reward halving that is coming soon.

i agree with this completely.. But there is also the factor of being able to produce asics at cost vs us who have to pay retail.. So the difficulty for manufacturers to increase their share is not nearly as difficult as it is for us.. We are at the short end of the stick on this one

Best Regards
d57heinz

yes they make them cheaper then we buy them.  the only saving grace is power and cooling come into factor as cost.

if you go back a look at all the super players since asics came out.

there were 3

asic miner friedcat
knc
bitfury

all were self mining with more then 20% but not much more then 30%

they all faced the rising cost I am mining against myself issue.

so all of them never really got much over 30% even if they could.  the gain in actual fiat is not as much as one would think.

so right now bitfury is going to slowly  add to match its 25-30%  share.

If knc and others do a big farm it may be in early feb. I hope for 2 good jumps here.

I would also add Innosilicon to major players their A1 they sold ton's of chips.  There were lot's of 1T and eventually higher TH  models.   I still suspect in some low priced data centers in china you would find these.

Also bitmain does not make it as noticeable with having a big pool.  But I think they have to be on list it's hard to tell how much of antpool is internal, we likely will never know.

Looks like today will end up +2-3% or so. Still nothing to worry about yet

Yea, except that 2-3% today is the same as 10% about 8 months ago, and that's just crazy!

Nice

Today 144 block were solved and 144 as expected which means +0%

About time we get a break from these difficulty increases.

Love to have news like this much better what I thought this week would be with day's like this.  But very good day with that.

Now only if price of BTC could rise from 430's seems like we are kinda stuck there.

430 is fine if we rip a -1 or +1 diff

I'm not sure we will get that lucky though. With past few weeks i just don't see it going down that low I think likely we will see more.  The work week is starting now. So we could see some miners going in for all we know.

And I hope I'm wrong though.  If it drops to that this week I will be extremely happy to say the least.

I don t think it s possible.
until today was the new year, weekend etc.but starting today we will start seeing minners beeing plugged in ince again

Hashrate 16 (last 16 blocks) is increasing again. It looks like we have a go for take-off.
https://i.imgur.com/obMRIwc.png

yep get ready for blast off.. Net Hashrate over 24 hours is

998,588.80 TH/s
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Best Regards
d57heinz

 yes sir  we have turn on the after burners


https://blockchain.info/blocks

391721 (Main Chain)   2016-01-04 13:47:45

391607 (Main Chain)   2016-01-04 00:18:13


115 blocks in the time for 84

and picks are open.!  I do suggest waiting a bit

but feel free to pick now if you want to.

Yeah its pretty awful. I spoke too soon. So far for the partial day we are at +25%

yep near as I can tell   while the net work at a diff of 103 says we have a hashrate of 743

the network really can do a hash rate of 1000-1050.

Whether there are a few ghost cities in China or bitfury's big plant or hidden mega farms. All three prehaps?

The reality is the network gets cranked up and back down at will.  by around 180-220ph.

Not sure what this is going to do in the long run but in the short run it gets me going just like this



https://i.imgur.com/yisndlb.gif

In the context of Hash going on & off I found this interesting, and may acount for some of it?

Here is a intersting read as far as China and the new year - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-04/chinese-stocks-in-hong-kong-extend-annual-slump-as-yuan-declines  It sounds like markets are doing not so geat.   So not sure if any of that carries over to bitcoin.

I could see it being a pro or a con depending on what effect if any it has.

Yeah  this could be part.

and bitfury  could have heat creep with its 40 mega watt immersion cooling setup .

Would be interesting to clock rain in china along hydro powerplants.

I was doing this with bitfury (not rain but temps)  and they have had a warm winter until recently. 

Combining the two factors  may very well account for the power on power off moves on the network.

Really does make an extra tough forecast for the diff.

And here i was hoping to take a pick with 42 being the digits. Sound like 42% could be closer to be a winner than a 4.2% raise. I would of been plenty happy with a single digit diff raise, i hope this is just a luck spike and not a 150PH/s mine properly getting online.

So today ended being +20% or so. So much for those 0% days in the last 3 days.

well still have some low days

https://bitcoincharts.com


Blocks   391808
Total BTC   15.045M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   106535928464 in 1312 blks    this is about +2.55%
 
Network total   859554.331 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.94 / 519 s


but it is obvious that the network can do 1000ph  rather then the 780ph or so it is doing now.  I find it discouraging to say the least.

That is not bad on estimated.  I wish bitwisdom would show that low:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:    112,941,445,366 (+8.72%)
Adjust time:    After 1311 Blocks, About 8.8 days
Hashrate(?):    808,405,177 GH/s

It is estimating high..... but it seems we end up high the last few weeks.

that is real time not an estimate.

so with 1311 block left we certainly could jump to the 8 or 9% level.

this is why planning or guessing diff is so hard.

if the farms all stay maxxed we will go close to 120 diff but they don't stay maxxed  so wtf?  do we guess.

3% 5% 10% 15%?

+7.7 = Valkir

Lets hope to be lucky!  ;D

+10.8 = d57heinz

shooting for an avg around .8 % network growth avg per day..

Best Regards
d57heinz

My guess is plus 5.5%

+5.5% = Quickseller

+ 6.5% for me

well about the electricity, only one that is not heavily in the mining scene, would not know that the diff will not continue to grow forever at the same rate if the price remain there and efficiency is the same

miners want to have some margin on their profit, they will stop adding hashpower, in this case and wait for the next price increase, i guess they have already new equipments ready

4.5%+ if its not picked

+8.5% = vapourminer

+4.5% =  lolxxxx
+5.5%  = Quickseller
+6.5%  = Amph
+7.7 % = Valkir
+8.5%  = vapourminer
+10.8%= d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.

Well Yesterday was a bit of a ride , someone put a lot of extra hash up. Today things looking a lot more stable. I am going to delay my pick until the last moment.  :) My guess for Today is 146 Blocks...


Rich

+9.5% if the results ain't announced yet... :)

+4.5%  =  lolxxxx
+5.5%  = Quickseller
+6.5%  = Amph
+6.9%  = torepia
+7.7 % = Valkir
+8.5%  = vapourminer
+9.5%  =  gkv9
+10.2%= Chris_Sabian
+10.8%= d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.

+6.9%

Am I doing it right? :D

+10.2 %

no


+6.9% = torepia      is correct

+8.1% = edonkey

The cats refused to guess this time. Couldn't get either of them to talk to me about the difficulty. So this guess is all me.

I think he was kind of joking with the 69 :P

But yeah torepia, make sure you use this next time => +6.9% = torepia

Phil will just need to copy paste your guess to add it to the list instead of typing your name ect ... it's kind of a pain when you have 100 bid to take care of.

Thought it was going to be a quite Day after Yesterday but looks like we are spiking up again. Let's see if it continues?

Rich

I don't know it's so hard to speculate ... but I know in the pass past we see saw somekind of a pattern where the hashrate are going on and off ... especially off in the first few days and the last days of a Diff.

Unless someone throw "new" hashrate it'll be at the end of the diff or at the start of it. (not always true ...)

It might be an old farm that buy a bunch of MW for a few day for cheap and it worth it to be turned on.

But it's probably someone testing hardware (Bitfury ?)

Speculating all the way here :P

+7.4%  = flikflak

thanks

+4.7 = radiumsoup

+4.5%  =  lolxxxx
+4.7%  = radiumsoup
+5.5%  = Quickseller
+6.5%  = Amph
+6.9%  = torepia
+7.4%  = flikflak
+7.7 % = Valkir

+8.1% = edonkey
+8.5%  = vapourminer
+9.5%  =  gkv9
+10.2%= Chris_Sabian
+10.8%= d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.

+10.2% = chris_sabian

The same as above but messed for the formatting.  Just making sure all the bases are covered  :)

+8.2% = tennozer

I won't do mining again, difficulty increase is hurting home-miners very bad.

I dont know about that. The BTC price also doubled, so about the same income as i had few months ago. All in all, not bad. S1's are still profitable + i need the heat anyways.

for the weather angle on bitfury. see screen shot of  wunderground:

So if the overheating heating angle is true  for bitfury  based on this tomorrow we should be under 144 blocks
https://i.imgur.com/reTryto.png

For most S1's are not profitable you are really lucky for your free electricity.  I would spend more on usage then it would make sadly.   But that is great for you.

We had a long time of low difficulty we might have even got spoiled with it.  Now were seeing difficulty changes.  Either price goes up... or some last gen gear will be sold most likely after winter.  I foresee a lot of S5, SP20, Avalon 4.1, etc being sold either a little before summer or right into summer.  But that is a lot of time... if price goes up it might remain profitable for longer.  Just hard to speculate it.

So according to the weather forecast Bitfury's gear will be powered down since it will be +47F everyday for the next 5 days?

not sure about bitfury turning it off.  but we did 158 today and if they run the gear at ⅔ speed because it got warmer  we should be closer to 144.


All a guess or a spec.  but   lets see what happens.

+7.5% = Mikestang

It still boggles my mind how much the network grows each adjustment.  Trying to imagine the sheer quantity of gear that is turning on around the world it's amazing.

We'll see how the rest of the week performs. Today ended up being about +7.7% so much better than yesterdays +20%

+4.5%  =  lolxxxx
+4.7%  = radiumsoup
+5.5%  = Quickseller
+6.5%  = Amph
+6.9%  = torepia
+7.4%  = flikflak
+7.5% = Mikestang
+7.7 % = Valkir

+8.1% = edonkey
+8.2% = tennozer
+8.5%  = vapourminer
+9.5%  =  gkv9
+10.2%= Chris_Sabian
+10.8%= d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.
[/quote]

@ Mikestang  what impresses me is how much can be turned up or down.  those 202 block days followed by 140 block days are amazing.

+8.9%  =  blindminer

+4.5%  =  lolxxxx
+4.7%  = radiumsoup
+5.5%  = Quickseller
+6.5%  = Amph
+6.9%  = torepia
+7.4%  = flikflak
+7.5% = Mikestang
+7.7 % = Valkir

+8.1% = edonkey
+8.2% = tennozer
+8.5%  = vapourminer
+8.9%  =  blindminer
+9.5%  =  gkv9
+10.2%= Chris_Sabian
+10.8%= d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.

+10.4%  =  VirosaGITS

Seem like single digit % this round is possible, but it feel pretty conservative when you consider what could come online at any moment.

+7.3 = ingiltere

Difficulty rise is slowing down. Block generation time is over the average.

+4.5%   = lolxxxx
+4.7%   = radiumsoup
+5.5%   = Quickseller
+6.5%   = Amph
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.7 %  = Valkir

+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.5%   =  gkv9
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.


So weather got warmer in Tbilisi Georgia bitfury's farm location  and blocks dropped off. for bitfury.

now it is 10 am is New Jersey  which is about 7 pm Tbilisi  So cooling down should happen as it gets dark.  Thus blocks should pick up about now.

Remember to hide the mining bitfury could point at f2pool or antpool , but I think that the next 10-15 hours blocks will pick up pace.


https://i.imgur.com/vjWkDWL.png

Well the Hash rate is still well down, unless someone powers up some Miners soon we are on a negative day.  :) I think we could see as few as 130 Blocks.

Rich


Edit I may have scuppered things, blocks have just started piling in...... F2Pool is on fire, 6 Blocks in 15 Minutes...

I think we will end up with a high change compared to our lucky months again.  My hope is it is smaller then last.  If we get smaller each difficulty period on change... that is a little win. 

Bitwisdom still has us kind high:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:    111,923,700,649 (+7.74%)
Adjust time:    After 1065 Blocks, About 7.2 days
Hashrate(?):    809,776,347 GH/s

+5.0% = adaseb

Looking good today. No way will today end up a +% day. Maybe its the weather in Georgia

Phil, have you determined if there is a correlation with the weather and the hash rate/solved blocks, or is it still speculation?

I think there will be a small positive Today, around +3%


Rich

+6.6% = indiemax

+7.6% = ailikun

+7.8%  = zebedee

Thanks

Sun went down and hash went up.  so I have to think part of the shifts are due to heat issues with the bifury plant

if that's true, they won't survive the spring at all, let alone summer...only 4 things really matter at a datacenter, and that's power, cooling, security, and connectivity. It would be pretty bad (for them) if they screwed up such a fundamental aspect of the buildout.

+4.5%   = lolxxxx
+4.7%   = radiumsoup
+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.5%   = Quickseller
+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%  = zebedee
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.5%   =  gkv9
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.


http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   392083
Total BTC   15.052M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   108825370073 in 1037 blks   >>>> (+4.75%)
 
Network total   882568.294 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.12 / 506 s


So far under 5%

+8.0% = dukeneptun

Trying my luck, even though I suck at guessing Bitcoin price and other Bitcoin related predictions. :)

Yes we are under -2.9% for yesterday. Looks like its highly unlikely we will see a double digit difficulty increase with only 7 days left.

Some data relating to bitfurys heat issues (time is UTC not local)

Date                Blocks mined       Temps °F hi/lo

Jan. 03                  20               unknown
Jan. 04                  33               33.3/-20.4
Jan. 05                  23                  37/31
Jan. 06                  13                 49/33

This is not enough data yet, but there seems to be a correlation.

+%5.1 = jakals.

this is my prediction.waiting the result :)

Its nice to see it take over 2 hours to solve 6 blocks.

http://i64.tinypic.com/30a85dh.png

+7.9%  = HerbPean

Thanks

+8.3 = Notlist3d

Thanks

+4.5%   = lolxxxx
+4.7%   = radiumsoup
+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals
+5.5%   = Quickseller
+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%   = zebedee
+7.9%   = HerbPean
+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.5%   =  gkv9
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.


http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   392083
Total BTC   15.052M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   109226236186      in 1037 blks   >>>> (+5,14%)
 
Network total   921395.481 Thash/s
Blocks/hour       7.43 / 484 s

So far under 5.25%



Now it is going to be pretty warm in Tbilisi, Georgia

The   sun will rise  soon.

  Temps are 39.4 f  and blocks should slow  over the next 9-10 hours.  lets see what happens

+5.7

If it isn't to late  :o

Wow this forecasting is hard... Went to bed in the UK with 1 3/4 Hours to go on the Day. If the Blocks had come in at 10 Min Intervals that would have made a 148 Block +2.7% Day.

But.. it's as if someone threw a switch, only 3 Blocks were found in the last 1 3/4 Hours giving a 142 Block -2.13% Day. Just shows the 1 Day is a very short time in Luck / Variance terms.


Rich

+9% = gangnam2016

+8.4% = needmoney

Please

well that method i used to predict diff worked really well seemingly up until i exposed what i was doing here and let them in on how i was watching them play with our money.  Its no doubt a huge farm turning on and off.. 600 peta swings over a days time isnt variance completely. its a huge farm coming on coupled with a streak of luck from the large pools.. Makes it look larger than it really is.. But i still think we have time to hit 1 exahash by months end. Once the network levels off for a month or so check out the swings in variance on this chart.. they are usually less than 10 % swings. you can see it clearly when  it settled down a couple days ago..  went up and down no more than 50 ph between 1-1-2016 and 1-3-2016  then you can see the switch was thrown around the 4th and back to craziness


http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

OK, I aam in.....

+7.4% = alh

Personally I don't think the wild swings are for nefarious purposes, but just digesting all the new hash being turned by Bitmain (sales & internal), BitFury (internal), and Avalon (????).

Phil's theory that its the Russian's plant overheating is a pretty good one. Either way, it doesnt do much nefariousness. Overall it just mean the diff will raise slower.

+7.2=Tmdz

+4.4%   = philipma1957
+4.5%   = lolxxxx
+4.7%   = radiumsoup
+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals
+5.5%   = Quickseller
+5.7%   = Kilo17
+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.1%   = alh >>>>>>>>>>>>   not your first pick of 7.4 that was taken
+7.2%   =Tmdz
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%   = zebedee
+7.9%   = HerbPean
+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.4%   = needmoney
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.5%   =  gkv9
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.


http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   392182
Total BTC   15.055M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   108263969307 in 938 blks
 
Network total   656414.349 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.30 / 680 s

note this a double post.  

my pick is :

4.4% = philipma1957

and alh pick was 7.4% it was taken so I gave him 7.1%


Lastly  I have .9 in funds to distribute

I transferred .4 today and will replenish it as soon as  coinbase clears for me.

we still have 0.50 on hand and this prize is: 0.10

I choos
+6.8 % = vortexz


thanks

+6.3% = tertius993

+4.4%   = philipma1957
+4.5%   = lolxxxx
+4.7%   = radiumsoup
+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals
+5.5%   = Quickseller
+5.7%   = Kilo17
+6.3%   = tertius993
+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.8 %  = vortexz

+6.9%   = torepia
+7.1%   = alh >>>>>>>>>>>>   not your first pick of 7.4 that was taken
+7.2%   =Tmdz
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%   = zebedee
+7.9%   = HerbPean
+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.4%   = needmoney
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.5%   =  gkv9
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.



Picks end in  about a day at 816 right now my 4.4% is the lowest pick and it would be too high!  as  we are at +3.79%!


http://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   392197
Total BTC   15.055M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   107814518534 in 923 blks         this is real time new number it is (+3.79%)
 
Network total   678214.869 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.47 / 658 s

Coinbase is at 456 currently.  So we had a nice little jump on price.  I hope it slowly continues.   But still nice to see it happen.

I like the realtime numbers I hope it's closer to that then my speculation.  Would be nice to have a under 5 change.

+9.1%   = wlefever

It's a bit of a double edged sword.  Sure the higher btc price makes mining more profitable and able to support higher network difficulty, but it also attracts more miners and turns on more machines, thus increasing network difficulty and requiring a higher price to support it.  A bit of the ol' snake eating it's tail...

But generally I agree, much better to be sitting mid-400s than mid-200s like we did for so long.

I vote +9.7%

I think a lot of the ones pushing it so much are commercial set-ups with ton's of machines.  I don't think it's a bunch of small hobby miners or home miners causing it.  So even at the higher price I'm not sure how much of a effect it has on attracting more miners. 

Also I am still wondering if any of it could be China market putting more in it with stocks doing pretty bad there - http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/06/investing/china-stocks-halted/ .  The halting of stocks twice in a week is huge on their market.

+6.7% = Biodom

Thanks

+4.4%   = philipma1957
+4.5%   = lolxxxx

+4.7%   = radiumsoup

+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals

+5.5%   = Quickseller
+5.7%   = Kilo17

+6.3%   = tertius993

+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.7%   = Biodom
+6.8 %  = vortexz
+6.9%   = torepia

+7.1%   = alh >>>>>>>>>>>>   not your first pick of 7.4 that was taken
+7.2%   =Tmdz
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%   = zebedee
+7.9%   = HerbPean
+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.4%   = needmoney
+8.5%   = vapourminer


+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.1%   = wlefever


+9.5%   =  gkv9

+9.7%   =  fr4nkthetank
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.



Picks end in  about a day at 816.


http://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   392211
Total BTC   15.055M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   107775152392 in 909 blks  >>>>>>>   93 blocks till picks end
 
Network total   675167.038 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.45 / 661 s

+8.0%   = mavericklm

thank you! :)

+8.6% = page14

my bad, too much time wasted in bed watching tv series ;D
sorry and thank you!

453.45$ => diff going up! loved btc at 220bucks! :-\

What I like is earning money in 220ish day's and holding... and it doubles.  Now that is a great feeling vs if I had it in my regular low risk checking account it would have made almost no interest. But there is a lot more risk.

I hope we see it go up even more.  I really think with China being a big part with their stock doing kinda crappy we might have more from there looking at holding BTC.

picks end soon



Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   113,397,340,344 (+9.16%)
Adjust time:   After 845 Blocks, About 5.5 days-------------------picks end at 816 so 29 blocks to go
Hashrate(?):   797,974,364 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.9 minutes
Updated:   23:20 (1.6 minutes ago)

We have   4.6, 4.8, 4.9, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.6, 5.8  5.9, 6.0, 6.1, 6.2, 6.4, 8.7, 8.8

so grab one of them above  or some other one not picked.  entry is free.


+4.4%   = philipma1957
+4.5%   = lolxxxx

+4.7%   = radiumsoup

+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals

+5.5%   = Quickseller

+5.7%   = Kilo17

+6.3%   = tertius993

+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.7%   = Biodom
+6.8 %  = vortexz
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.0%   = mavericklm >>>>>>>   not your first pick of 8.0 that was taken
+7.1%   = alh >>>>>>>>>>>>   not your first pick of 7.4 that was taken
+7.2%   =Tmdz
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%   = zebedee
+7.9%   = HerbPean
+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.4%   = needmoney
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.6%   = page14

+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.1%   = wlefever


+9.5%   =  gkv9

+9.7%   =  fr4nkthetank
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.



Picks end in  about 5 hours at 816.

+9.2%  = tss

thanks

Guys
picks end soon. 
my pick of 4.4 is the lowest pick



http://bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   392276
Total BTC   15.057M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   109399721619 in 844 blks ---------------------------- this is reading about +5.304%
 
Network total   1032848.010 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   8.33 / 432 s





Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   113,397,340,344 (+9.16%)
Adjust time:   After 845 Blocks, About 5.5 days-------------------picks end at 816 so 29 blocks to go
Hashrate(?):   797,974,364 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.9 minutes
Updated:   23:20 (1.6 minutes ago)

We have   4.6, 4.8, 4.9, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.6, 5.8  5.9, 6.0, 6.1, 6.2, 6.4, 8.7, 8.8

so grab one of them above  or some other one not picked.  entry is free.


+4.4%   = philipma1957
+4.5%   = lolxxxx

+4.7%   = radiumsoup

+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals

+5.5%   = Quickseller

+5.7%   = Kilo17

+6.3%   = tertius993

+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.7%   = Biodom
+6.8 %  = vortexz
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.0%   = mavericklm >>>>>>>   not your first pick of 8.0 that was taken
+7.1%   = alh >>>>>>>>>>>>   not your first pick of 7.4 that was taken
+7.2%   =Tmdz
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%   = zebedee
+7.9%   = HerbPean
+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.4%   = needmoney
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.6%   = page14

+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.1%   = wlefever
+9.2%  =  tss

+9.5%   =  gkv9

+9.7%   =  fr4nkthetank
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.



Picks end in  about 5 hours at 816.



[/quote]

The way the Chinese government controls the finances in that country, we could just as easily see things over there do a 180.  Hopefully that wouldn't tank the btc price, there would be a lot of unhappy miners.

hello
+6.2 =pusttiu
happy new year miners....

Good Morning from the UK and time for a last minute pick. We have been quite stable over the last 3 days with the run rate between 3% & 5%, so that looks to be the range to be in. The question is will the recent turmoil on the Chinese Stock Market and resultant increase in BTC encourage some more hash onto the network?

So that encourages me towards the top end of the range. 5% & 5.1% are taken so it's between 4.9% & 5.2%? Hmmm I will go for...

+ 5.2% = RichBC

looks like hash is still going down a bit, maybe this diff we will have a small + (5-6%), and hopefully next difficulty we will be in the negative by a fraction

I doubt it. Looking at charts here http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png or at http://nextdifficulty.com the daily hashrate fluctuates between 700 and 1000 PH/s which could mean the 'real' hashrate as average of tops and bottoms is somewhere about 850 PH/s. That would mean the difficulty should go up to 120 mlns at following diff change at the latest. So with next difficulty jump under 10% there will be another +5 or more following.

Today is a good day for bitfury. They got 18 blocks so far and its half time.


Date             Blocks mined (24h)      Temps (°F) hi/lo

Jan. 03                  20               unknown
Jan. 04                  33               33.3/-20.4
Jan. 05                  23                  37/31
Jan. 06                  13                 49/33
Jan. 07                  10                 46/37
Jan. 08         est 25-35           est51/38


This is not enough data yet, but there seems to be a correlation.

+4.4%   = philipma1957
+4.5%   = lolxxxx

+4.7%   = radiumsoup

+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals
+5.2% = RichBC
+5.5%   = Quickseller

+5.7%   = Kilo17
+6.2%   = pusttiu
+6.3%   = tertius993

+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.7%   = Biodom
+6.8 %  = vortexz
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.0%   = mavericklm >>>>>>>   not your first pick of 8.0 that was taken
+7.1%   = alh >>>>>>>>>>>>   not your first pick of 7.4 that was taken
+7.2%   =Tmdz
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%   = zebedee
+7.9%   = HerbPean
+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.4%   = needmoney
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.6%   = page14

+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.1%   = wlefever
+9.2%  =  tss

+9.5%   =  gkv9

+9.7%   =  fr4nkthetank
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.



Picks end in  about 5 hours at 816.



[/quote]
[/quote]

Is it too late to get in?

+8.7% = Kexkey

:)

sorry you missed it.

Today not looking so good, if this keeps up we are looking at a +15% or so. Guess it got colder in Russia

I missed the picks but I'm very certain that this round there will be a winner. It'll be under %10 and almost all slots filled already.

Today ended being +16.2%, so if this continues most likely we will see at least +10% diff increase in the next 5 days.

Hopefully it does not continue.  We have been up and down a tad but seems 450 is steady for the moment.  Winter mining might be harder then I expected.

I thought summer mining was going to be tough for me but I was able to do it.   And it had a  nice low rate increase, which now we have a cray high one. 

Yes after 3 quite stable days with the run rate being nicely between 3% & 5%, just after Picks closed.... the rate has been steadily rising, now at 6%, with no pull back yet. We will see how long this continues?


Rich

We can only hope the chinese gov thugs shut down f2pool and antpool and bitmaintech for not paying proper taxes huehuehue.  now that would be fun times.

Bitwisdom is not horrible:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:    111,965,941,024 (+7.78%)
Adjust time:    After 560 Blocks, About 3.6 days
Hashrate(?):    806,506,049 GH/s

Still hope that is high though.  Price took a little bit of a dive and is at 444,  it looks pretty steep on daily.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


141  12-31  
133  1-1
143  1-2
151  1-3
178  1-4
155  1 - 5
147  1- 6
140   1- 7
172    1 - 8
155   1 - 9

not terrible above or below


 http://bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks   392590
Total BTC   15.065M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   107980874852 in 530 blks ------  this comes to  3.94%
 
Network total   853673.572 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.89 / 523 s


at 3.94% my 4.4 pick is the closest number.

top contenders below

+4.4%   = philipma1957
+4.5%   = lolxxxx

+4.7%   = radiumsoup

+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals
+5.2% = RichBC
+5.5%   = Quickseller

+5.7%   = Kilo17
+6.2%   = pusttiu
+6.3%   = tertius993

You sure its accurate? Bitcoinwisdom and nextdifficulty.com say its close to 10%

Conservative: 10.5% 10.9% Continous: 12 %

nextdifficulty.com number is based on last 1500 blocks which we already finished in this adjustment period so there is not even enough time to drop to 5%. Another 10%+ period is more than real. Only positive thing is I don't see new record peaks in short term hashrate so things could calm a bit in next days.

edit: there seems nextdifficulty.com had some timeout glitch and shows 6.6% now, so it won't be that bad

Putting on my speculation hat - That would be a loss of most of the network, and given the maximum difficulty adjustments allowed each period by the code it could take a while for difficulty to drop to a point where blocks were found ~10 minutes again.  Not that I would be complaining...

What I like about this is that there are on the Web and in this group so many different ways of trying to forecast the change. It is of course impossible as no system can guess the additional Hash that is constantly being added & removed from the network. We know the trend is likely to be up at the moment but that's about it.

So my spreadsheet had us at a run rate of between 3% & 5% for the 3 Days prior to picks closing at Block 1200. I then guessed just above that range at 5.2% allowing for a little more Hash to be added. Almost immediately the rate went up and Yesterday we moved between 5% & 6% which is quite tight so I expect to see that expand a bit either up or hopefully down.

I make us at the moment at 6.25% and am waiting to see the new band emerge. I think unfortunately we are likely to go a little higher so if I was guessing at the moment it would be 6.5% - 7%


Rich

Were talking about HUGE pools making a lot in profits.  I don't see them being shutdown I just don't see that. I would guess Chinese government if anything would want to tax it.

But these pools have such huge backing they could easily shift countries it's based in.  For all we know they have a hot site in some other country ready to switch on.  And if they don't I'm guessing they could get up in another country pretty quick with resources they have.

today tons and tons of blocks made  173 with about 20 minutes left

Estimated Next Difficulty:    112,257,438,625 (+8.06%)
Adjust time:    After 382 Blocks, About 2.4 days
Hashrate(?):    858,994,965 GH/s

Hopping a single digit modification of the difficulty :)

Still 2 days and half and tomorrow is monday...

Yeah today ended up being +17% for the day. But I don't think we will exceed +10% this diff period with only 2 days left.

https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs better weather for bitfury?

Estimated Next Difficulty:    112,226,515,725 (+8.03%)
Adjust time:    After 332 Blocks, About 2.1 days
Hashrate(?):    849,079,555 GH/s

still ok atm

Need some help with the maths here?  :) I think we made 175 Blocks Yesterday (392557-392731)
175-144 = 31 additional blocks.

Now I would have expressed the 31 as a % increase over 144? 31/144 = 21.5%

However I guess this is 31/175 = 17.7%

I assume the 17.7% is correct, but why is that?


Rich

You do (175-144)/175*100%=   X

Ok thanks, but why is the increase expressed as a % of the 175 as opposed to 144?

No, you were right the first time, the target is 144/day so to show the percentage increase above that target you use 144 as the denominator.

Probably to get a rough estimate of what the difficulty might look like.

For example, if everyday we finish at +5%, then the difficulty increase will probably be around +5%

hopefully, next diff increase will finally be flat or - !

You can hope for that, but chances are very slim.   I expect another at least high single digits.  I don't see what will stop that.

The only great thing is the ones I mined at 220 and held onto now in 440's look a lot nicer.  So past mining is paying off more and more.

Today looking like it's going to be as big as Yesterday. If this continues we are headed for +9.6%


Rich

Fixed. :)

It's likely we will not see another flat diff adjustment until next summer, there's going to be a mad push to solve as many 25btc blocks as possible before the halving.  After that, who knows what will happen.

my high guess for diff increase now doesnt seem that high.  god damn antminers s7 are selling like hotcakes i presume.  still 1100$ around, + customs and duties and you only get it in 1 week and a half to two weeks.  I feel diff will increase again and again.  I also feel price will explode.  I feeeeeeeeeeeeel it.

Yeah its still pretty bad. We are ending the day at around 15% gain. So most likely the diff increase will be between 8%-9% sometime tomorrow.

Glad we got the maths sorted... I made Yesterday 170 Blocks, 15.3%

I think we are headed for +9.5% and a finish Tomorrow about 5:07


Rich

Going to estimate it ends at 9%
Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   113,165,834,626 (+8.94%)
Adjust time:   After 125 Blocks, About 18.2 hours

Most likely the winners are going to be in this group


+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.6%   = page14

+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.1%   = wlefever
+9.2%  =  tss

Watch it close at 8.7 or 8.8%

it is


Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   112,947,142,037   (+8.73%)     <<<<<  it could drop  yeah right ::)
Adjust time:   After 120 Blocks, About 17.5 hours
Hashrate(?):   882,246,022 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.5 minutes
Updated:   8:35 (7.4 minutes ago)



So maybe 8% to 10%  is a safer guess as to the range



+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.4%   = needmoney
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.6%   = page14

+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.1%   = wlefever
+9.2%  =  tss

+9.5%   =  gkv9

+9.7%   =  fr4nkthetank


there are gaps  here  so a rollover can happen

So yes it looks like we will do between +9% - +10% but a worrying thing is that the current run rate is more like +20%, so even after the adjustment we will be running at +10% going into the next period...

It's amazing the amount of extra hash people are putting up given the size of the network now. Also it is far from certain that we have seen much of the new miners from Spondoolies or Bitfury? Let's hope the exchange rate can keep pace?


Rich

less than 13 hours left.  so close yet so far.

is the prize awarded to closest pick this round or will it carry over if no one matches?

No its a carry over if it doesn't land at the exact figure.

I'm just happy it appears we will be under 10 this week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:    112,938,422,791 (+8.72%)
Adjust time:    After 79 Blocks, About 11.4 hours
Hashrate(?):    900,227,328 GH/s

I hope next change is even smaller and btc price goes up. It seems pretty steady in mid 440's on value this week.

i am just disgusted by this >=10% continuous rise.
For kicks-SPT was projecting 4% per period rise in 2016. I wish!

it is
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   112,873,991,724     >>>>>>> (+8.66%)
Adjust time:   After 69 Blocks, About 10.0 hours
Hashrate(?):   890,625,369 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.1 minutes
6 blocks: 52.3 minutes
Updated:   15:50 (1.9 minutes ago)




So maybe 8% to 10%  is a safer guess as to the range



+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.4%   = needmoney
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.6%   = page14

+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.1%   = wlefever
+9.2%  =  tss

+9.5%   =  gkv9

+9.7%   =  fr4nkthetank


there are gaps  here  so a rollover can happen,  but if we stopped right now  page14 would win.

added all the diff changes and i got 98.63
÷27 number of jumps(negative & positive)
results in 3.65% per period in 2015

after the halving we might see some serious negative changes.... in 2016 ;D

Estimated Next Difficulty:    113,250,628,652 (+9.02%)
Adjust time:    After 59 Blocks, About 8.6 hours
Hashrate(?):    897,410,660 GH/s

at least is not double digit!!!
maybe next few diffs will be ~5% ::)

You can't just sum them all, they compound each other so you would need to analyze them sort of like compounding interest.

 :-\ now we get the dump.. so smaller diff but is now added with a 5 % drop in price.   Such easy manipulation..   I really dont understand why they like to do that.. that only puts off more investors.. Wouldnt they make more by holding and letting it rise.  Or are these attempts to scare the market into dumping aswell in order to rebuy your original amount of coins but at a much lower price.. I say dont sell if you dont have to .. Ive Quit feeding into the traders :)  just a thought anyway.. hate to see the price drop now with such large increases in diff.. Will start to squeeze out my s3 finally.. Although i do still run s2 and keep the coin in hopes price doubles  or at least rises enough after halving to make it worth running now.. If it doesnt work out this time its only 4 ths  so not like its a huge amount of invest. :)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/coinbase/btcusd

rate for 366 days  with 27 jumps

Dec 30 2014 = 40,640,955,017
Dec 31 2015 =   103,880,340,815


so 103,880,340,815 /40,640,955,017 = 2.5560



  1.031 to the 27th power =  2.280    so 3.1% is too low

1.033 to the 27th power = 2.4027   so 3.3% is too low

 1.035 to the 27th power = 2.62    so 3.5% is too high


 try 1.0344 to the 27th power = 2.577   so 3.44%  is too high

 try 1.0342 to the 27th power = 2.564   so 3.42% is very close

Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s


Lets see if we can close below the 8.77% diff increase which was made on Dec 6th.

5 blocks left

Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   113,281,706,193 (+9.05%)
Adjust time:   After 5 Blocks, About 43.6 minutes
Hashrate(?):   890,710,037 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.1 minutes
6 blocks: 52.3 minutes
Updated:   0:35 (5.3 minutes ago

the winner should be from the list below, good luck guys.

+8.6%   = page14

+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.1%   = wlefever
+9.2%  =  tss

+9.5%   =  gkv9




393120  has been made and we have a winner.



Just waiting for bitcoinwisdom to post



https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   393120
Total BTC   15.078M
 
Difficulty   113354299801
Estimated   113481073074 in 2016 blks
 
Network total   821827.785 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.63 / 543 s


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s   the winner is   wlefever    please pm your btc addy I will send coins




Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

Does this make me a winner finally??

Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s

+9.1%   = wlefever

yes so I need a btc addy to send you the .1 btc

wow such diff increase, congrats to the winner.  i thought my 9.7% was wayyyy high...turns out it was pretty close.  I'm guessing we are due for 4-5 more 10% diff increases sigh

Congrats to the winner! Exahash in no time... nuts.

yeah this jump or the next  we will go over 1000ph

Thanks for running this! My btc address for this is: 1F4XmZCHELjfTBbRCx3NR7prXeV1TrK6LD

sent to you

https://blockchain.info/tx/91c24dbb458d5cb368473ac1c0f200bd12954b42dcaa0a796df89c5a212453e8

locking thread

new thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1326210.0

Received!  Thanks again and good luck on the next adjustment to everyone.  I really hope we start seeing smaller increases but that Exahash is here and hard to swallow.