keystroke (OP)
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December 31, 2015, 10:30:21 PM Last edit: April 11, 2016, 06:21:50 AM by keystroke |
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tl;dr If market cap growth is to increase we are going to see a nice jump due to halving. On top of that the rate of this growth can also increase as it did after the last halving. Even with $41,000 coins it would take 32 years to reach MSFT's market cap on 30 Dec 1999.
12/31/2015 price $430 9/18/14 price $430
day diff is 469 block diff is 67,536 coin diff is 1,688,400
12/31/2015 coins 15,028,500 9/18/14 coins 13,340,100
market cap now $6,462,255,000 market cap then $5,736,243,000 increase is $726,012,000 increase is 12.66%
430*1.1266=484.438
$1,548,000 per day gained at $420*3600
2753 2553 days since genesis until now growth at above rate would imply $4,261,644,000 $3,952,044,000 but actually grew $2,500,000 per day over lifetime of btc until now *had 50btc/10m for ~1/2time
2084 days until 9/18/14 from genesis grew by $2,752,000 a day
at current $1,548,000 then we have $309,600,000 before halving 2nd halving implied price $6,771,855,000 that is if 15,750,000 coins = $430
--- 28 nov 2012 halving was 1425 days since genesis 10,500,000 coins ~$115,000,000 grew $81,000 per day until 1st halving
$6,656,855,000 between first halving and implied second halving 1328 days $5,012,692 per day
62x daily growth from 1st to 2nd
But current coins per day are worth $1,548,000 per day, .3x the average growth rate between halving 1 and 2 Or .62x the overall growth rate throughout the life of the system
and 81,000/7200=$11.25 for first phase
?= 430/.3 - 430/.62 = $693-$1433 ? After 2nd halving then per day issued is $1,247,400 per day - $2,579,400
If 3rd era is 15x from 2nd era (.25 previous jump) then $41,000 coins to get to ~75m daily increase from 1800 coins
75m daily increase would be 27.375b per year
MSFT cap was 879b on 30 Dec 1999. At above rate of growth it would still take 31.9 years (2048) for us to reach that total. (n.b. not accounting future halvings)
Edit: Corrected two errors, needs rechecking
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