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Author Topic: [BitFunder] My name is Bond. MPOE Bond. ( Jan: 9.99%, Feb: 4.8% Mar: -23%)  (Read 8796 times)
SlipperySlope
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April 01, 2013, 05:47:15 PM
 #61

Does anyone else think that the MPOR should be substantially higher, given the big March loss?

Or rather, why is a repeat of that loss unlikely if that's the case?
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April 01, 2013, 06:47:48 PM
 #62

Does anyone else think that the MPOR should be substantially higher, given the big March loss?

Or rather, why is a repeat of that loss unlikely if that's the case?

I imagine it will end up being higher this month, and certainly next month.
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April 01, 2013, 06:56:11 PM
 #63

Does anyone else think that the MPOR should be substantially higher, given the big March loss?

Or rather, why is a repeat of that loss unlikely if that's the case?

Be careful, most people who are answering and giving you advice in this thread are making money when you lose money.

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April 02, 2013, 12:31:39 AM
 #64

Does anyone else think that the MPOR should be substantially higher, given the big March loss?

Or rather, why is a repeat of that loss unlikely if that's the case?

Be careful, most people who are answering and giving you advice in this thread are making money when you lose money.
If these "most people" trade MPOE options, then yes, it's true. My own personal investment was on both sides - both bonds and call options, and together I came out with some profit.

As to why the loss is unlikely or not. Because the bonds cover BTC/USD options, it is clear there is a loss when the price shows big volatility(and options profit). In March price went up more than 3x, beyond even highest 75$ strike offered then. It's up to investors to assess likelihood of something like this to happen again.

BTW, as everyone can write options on MPEx, we're pondering some diversification to not rely solely on MPOE's own trading bot, but add other implementation(s) as well that may be better tuned to limit investors' exposure. If this succeeds, will be properly announced when next batch of MPBPT is issued. But one needs also to consider that biggest exposure - 68k BTC - was provided by Mircea Popescu, of which he admitted 15k loss. Competing traders won't have this last resort backing.

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SlipperySlope
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April 07, 2013, 09:33:08 PM
 #65

@MPOE-PR,

Your linked document included this intriguing statement ...

Quote
MPOE holds absolutely no capital of its own, being exclusively composed of the algorithm that prices options and other algorithms and general craftiness required for the entire thing to function.

Correct me if I am wrong, but the MPOE bond holders cover the risk of the MOPE option pricing bot. As the theory of option pricing is well understood, I would like to know how the bot's volatility component is determined? I assume that the algorithm learns from the variation of the recent time series.

So what is the likelihood that the MPOE option pricing bot is still under pricing with respect the chances for another 3x run this month. As of seven days into this month of April, the USD/BTC price has close to doubled already.
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April 08, 2013, 11:52:23 AM
 #66

As the theory of option pricing is well understood, I would like to know how the bot's volatility component is determined?

That is not disclosed.

I assume that the algorithm learns from the variation of the recent time series.

So what is the likelihood that the MPOE option pricing bot is still under pricing with respect the chances for another 3x run this month. As of seven days into this month of April, the USD/BTC price has close to doubled already.

Entirely up to you to establish, all of this.

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April 08, 2013, 03:02:22 PM
 #67

The way things are headed (with the exchange rate) it looks like our bonds could possibly take another 30% haircut this month.

Hopefully, there are some radical adjustments being made to the bot's volatility pricing component.
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April 09, 2013, 07:36:32 AM
 #68

The way things are headed (with the exchange rate) it looks like our bonds could possibly take another 30% haircut this month.

Hopefully, there are some radical adjustments being made to the bot's volatility pricing component.

There does seem to be an awful lot of "hope" and "trust" in this, um, scheme.

MP has said publicly that the bot hasn't been changed.  Who knows though, I doubt he's relishing another 23k hit.
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April 09, 2013, 11:45:22 AM
 #69

The way things are headed (with the exchange rate) it looks like our bonds could possibly take another 30% haircut this month.

Hopefully, there are some radical adjustments being made to the bot's volatility pricing component.

There does seem to be an awful lot of "hope" and "trust" in this, um, scheme.

MP has said publicly that the bot hasn't been changed.  Who knows though, I doubt he's relishing another 23k hit.

All bitcoin investing requires a healthy amount of trust and risk.
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April 09, 2013, 08:41:08 PM
 #70

Happened earlier today in #bitcoin-assets (unrelated conversations removed):
Quote
<jurov> mircea_popescu: as a representative of bondholders i request you to increase price on calls
<Bugpowder> lol
<mircea_popescu> lol
<jurov> Smiley
<jurov> ;;calc 215/(1-0.087)
<gribble> 235.487404162
<jurov> ^ mircea_popescu, but im serious. C215T may be in the money tomorrow as it looks
<assbot> [MPEX] [O.USD.C248T] 100 @ 0.10431071 = 10.4311 BTC
<Bugpowder> C300T will be ITM tomorrow
<mircea_popescu> well sure it may be in the money.
<mircea_popescu> if calls couldn't make moneuy nobody would buy them
<jurov> MPOE is exposing itself to undue risk, don't you think?
<Bugpowder> bot should also BUY calls
<Bugpowder> at a higher price
<Bugpowder> I recommend 0.8 for the C137Ts.
<assbot> [MPEX] [O.USD.P200T] 1000 @ 0.15267922 = 152.6792 BTC [-]
<assbot> [MPEX] [O.USD.C215T] 30 @ 0.15955155 = 4.7865 BTC
<mircea_popescu> lolwut
<mircea_popescu> jurov the risk is this : if price goes up, short calls lose money. if price goes down, they make money.
<mircea_popescu> what's unde about that ?
<jurov> how many short calls are there, not many i daresay.
<mircea_popescu> jurov all calls the bot sells are short to the bot.
<assbot> [MPEX] [O.USD.C248T] 10 @ 0.10489348 = 1.0489 BTC [ + ]
<jurov> <mircea_popescu> jurov all calls the bot sells are short to the bot. <<< and thus to bondholders
<mircea_popescu> yeah.
<assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 29349 @ 0.00069022 = 20.2573 BTC [-]
<assbot> [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10200 @ 0.00070222 = 7.1626 BTC [ + ]
<jurov> i mean, isn't it so unreasonable to assume March will possibly repeat, and do valuation adjustment?
<mircea_popescu> why am i assuming ?
<jurov> what you're assuming then?
<mircea_popescu> nothing.
<mircea_popescu> if we knew wtf is ghoing on we wouldn't need optioons in the fuirst place
<jurov> two months in a row loss for MPOE bonds will cause having to cover them all yourself, can't we at least assume that as a baseline?
<jurov> or are you sure this is very unlikely?
<mircea_popescu> im not sure of anything tbh.
<mircea_popescu> what are you so aggitated about anyway, the oix is half puts
<assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.779 = 1.558 BTC [ + ]
<assbot> [BTCTC] [ESECURITYSABTC] 1 @ 0.2 BTC [-]
<jurov> i'm agitated about the call part of oix Smiley
<ThickAsThieves> jurov, it seems you are questioning mp for bonds you bought knowing the same trend already
<ThickAsThieves> no?
<mircea_popescu> ya but if you think about it, if options sold are half put half call by volume... what's gonna happen ?
<mircea_popescu> they can't both win
<bgupta> and remember because it's $ profits as calls move more and more into the money they have a built in profit limiter.
<jurov> i didn't put much into bonds myself. but i'm being MPBPT operator here
<jurov> and MPBPT May is not selling at all
<assbot> [MPEX] [O.USD.P200T] 1000 @ 0.15160246 = 151.6025 BTC [-]
<jurov> options sold are half put half call by volume, really? then it's okay, should have researched it before freaking out.
<mircea_popescu> jurov well it's what mpex.co main page says

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April 14, 2013, 09:21:36 AM
 #71

If bot lost money, YOU (bond holder) loose your invested principal and promised %?
Is this bot writing naked calls?

While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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April 14, 2013, 10:38:44 AM
 #72

If bot lost money, YOU (bond holder) loose your invested principal and promised %?
Is this bot writing naked calls?

If you could find the time to release a proper report for your ART scamsset that'd be great. Other mispreoccupations, misunderstandings and misdirections can take a second seat to "figuring out how to use accounting software" etc.

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April 14, 2013, 11:04:39 AM
 #73

off topic bullshit from the village idiot, aka MPOE-PRBS removed

2 simple questions:
1) Is this bot writing naked calls
2) If bot lost money, YOU (bond holder) loose your invested principal and promised %?

While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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April 14, 2013, 11:54:28 AM
 #74


2 simple questions:
1) Is this bot writing naked calls
2) If bot lost money, YOU (bond holder) loose your invested principal and promised %?


That's one question and statement, which, ironically, contains your answer.
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April 14, 2013, 01:22:50 PM
 #75

If bot lost money, YOU (bond holder) loose your invested principal and promised %?
Is this bot writing naked calls?


I'll put you out of your misery.

The calls and puts aren't naked - they're covered by the bond-holders money (with MP covering the rest when there's not enough raised from bondholders).  I'm puzzled what you thought the bonds were being sold for if the cash wasn't being used to cover the options - to give money away for free?. 

All settlements are in BTC - so BTC can cover both sides of the trade.
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April 14, 2013, 01:41:41 PM
 #76

If bot lost money, YOU (bond holder) loose your invested principal and promised %?
Is this bot writing naked calls?


I'll put you out of your misery.

The calls and puts aren't naked - they're covered by the bond-holders money (with MP covering the rest when there's not enough raised from bondholders).  I'm puzzled what you thought the bonds were being sold for if the cash wasn't being used to cover the options - to give money away for free?. 

All settlements are in BTC - so BTC can cover both sides of the trade.

let me put you back to your misery... Wink
If you do not hold the underlying _security_ while you sell a call option, you have sold a NAKED call. Period.

While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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April 14, 2013, 07:28:28 PM
 #77

If bot lost money, YOU (bond holder) loose your invested principal and promised %?
Is this bot writing naked calls?


I'll put you out of your misery.

The calls and puts aren't naked - they're covered by the bond-holders money (with MP covering the rest when there's not enough raised from bondholders).  I'm puzzled what you thought the bonds were being sold for if the cash wasn't being used to cover the options - to give money away for free?. 

All settlements are in BTC - so BTC can cover both sides of the trade.

let me put you back to your misery... Wink
If you do not hold the underlying _security_ while you sell a call option, you have sold a NAKED call. Period.

Which securities is it you believe options are being sold on?
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April 15, 2013, 01:33:20 AM
 #78

If bot lost money, YOU (bond holder) loose your invested principal and promised %?
Is this bot writing naked calls?


I'll put you out of your misery.

The calls and puts aren't naked - they're covered by the bond-holders money (with MP covering the rest when there's not enough raised from bondholders).  I'm puzzled what you thought the bonds were being sold for if the cash wasn't being used to cover the options - to give money away for free?. 

All settlements are in BTC - so BTC can cover both sides of the trade.

let me put you back to your misery... Wink
If you do not hold the underlying _security_ while you sell a call option, you have sold a NAKED call. Period.

I am not sure why you are having such a hard time understanding what is going on here? The people with btc buy the bonds to fund the bot's trading. If the bot makes money, then a portion of that is payed back with the principle to the bondholders (IIUC, the rest of the profit goes to MP?). If the bot loses money, then the bondholders get back less money than they paid in, like last month when they got back 0.77 btc for each 1.0 btc they put in.

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April 15, 2013, 01:37:00 AM
 #79

They are naked but are covered by the bond holders, which is in BTC, so not naked?
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April 15, 2013, 01:43:05 AM
 #80

They are naked but are covered by the bond holders, which is in BTC, so not naked?

What is naked? Maybe I just don't understand what you mean by naked?

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