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Author Topic: [BitFunder] My name is Bond. MPOE Bond. ( Jan: 9.99%, Feb: 4.8% Mar: -23%)  (Read 8739 times)
rini17
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December 17, 2012, 07:49:52 PM
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BitFunder and CoinBr have launched exclusive offering for one of consistently most profitable bitcoin investments, the MPOE Bonds. To accomodate the nature of this underlying investment, every month the assets will go through three phases:

1. Fundraising
Bond shares will be offered at fixed price of (bond nominal price)+(trader margin). In the end of this phase, initial offer will be withdrawn and raised funds so far will be used to buy MPOE bonds.
2. Free trade
Further trade will be possible only with shares that were bought in step 1.
3. Liquidation
Liquidation process will mirror the liquidation of original bonds, the principal +yield or -loss will be converted to bitcoins. You will be able to invest into other asset for the next month. Between liquidation of a asset for one month and ending of fundraising for next month will be almost 24 hour grace period so you can invest immediately. This short perion is given by original MPOE rules. We are considering the best way for automatically carrying the investment over to the next month , it is likely it will be solved before February offering comes.

The details and dates of these phases are in each asset's description.

CoinBr.MPBPT-O will invest to MPOE bonds for January, March,May, etc..
CoinBr.MPBPT-E will invest to MPOE bonds for February,April,June, etc..

CoinBr.com: First online MPEx brokerage launched beta! Easy to use interface and reasonable fees. Charts for MPEx stocks: live.coinbr.com * My Blog *
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December 17, 2012, 08:03:07 PM
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This is actually a good idea.

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December 17, 2012, 11:18:34 PM
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So what's your own cut on it?  i.e. if I buy 1 BTC worth of bonds and MPOE-O breaks exactly even, how much do I get back?

Your post mentions trader margin (which I assume to mean your markup) but doesn't say what that is (if fixed) or how it's calculated (if variable).

Other than that seems a sound idea.  Anyone investing needs to read up on how that capital is used (and profits calulcated) before investing - so a link to that may have been a good idea (there's nothing dodgy about it - it's just not what a lot of investors will be used to, as it actually makes sense).
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December 17, 2012, 11:50:37 PM
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So what's your own cut on it?  i.e. if I buy 1 BTC worth of bonds and MPOE-O breaks exactly even, how much do I get back?

Your post mentions trader margin (which I assume to mean your markup) but doesn't say what that is (if fixed) or how it's calculated (if variable).

Other than that seems a sound idea.  Anyone investing needs to read up on how that capital is used (and profits calulcated) before investing - so a link to that may have been a good idea (there's nothing dodgy about it - it's just not what a lot of investors will be used to, as it actually makes sense).
No complicated calculation is involved, it stems directly from the market price - if you buy 1BTC (10 MPBPT shares) worth of bonds quickly, you will pay 0.95 BTC + small bitfunder fee. If you wait till only shares priced @ 0.101 BTC are available, you will have to pay 1.0101BTC - and that 0.0101BTC is exactly the margin. It may be slightly less, depending on your volume on bitfunder.

Then, in the end of January, if MPOE breaks exactly even, you will get 1BTC back.

CoinBr.com: First online MPEx brokerage launched beta! Easy to use interface and reasonable fees. Charts for MPEx stocks: live.coinbr.com * My Blog *
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December 18, 2012, 01:52:01 AM
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So what's your own cut on it?  i.e. if I buy 1 BTC worth of bonds and MPOE-O breaks exactly even, how much do I get back?

Your post mentions trader margin (which I assume to mean your markup) but doesn't say what that is (if fixed) or how it's calculated (if variable).

Other than that seems a sound idea.  Anyone investing needs to read up on how that capital is used (and profits calulcated) before investing - so a link to that may have been a good idea (there's nothing dodgy about it - it's just not what a lot of investors will be used to, as it actually makes sense).
No complicated calculation is involved, it stems directly from the market price - if you buy 1BTC (10 MPBPT shares) worth of bonds quickly, you will pay 0.95 BTC + small bitfunder fee. If you wait till only shares priced @ 0.101 BTC are available, you will have to pay 1.0101BTC - and that 0.0101BTC is exactly the margin. It may be slightly less, depending on your volume on bitfunder.

Then, in the end of January, if MPOE breaks exactly even, you will get 1BTC back.

Cool - so there's no fixed mark up: you'll charge whatever you think the market will bear.  That's fine - and a perfectly sensible and transparent way to do it.
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December 18, 2012, 02:48:12 AM
 #6

Awesome idea.  Love it.

I'm not a Coinbase fan -- I placed a buy order, they took the funds out of my account, then a week later the price went up and they canceled the buy and closed my account.  You've been warned.  Use a different exchange.
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December 18, 2012, 07:45:31 AM
 #7

brb with graphs

Graphs!





Lots of words too. MPOE bonds historical data.

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December 18, 2012, 09:48:20 AM
 #8

BitFunder and CoinBr have launched

It occurs to me this part is ambiguous. Will I be able to buy CoinBr.MPBPT-O on coinbr.com, on bitfunder.com or on both?
It is meant that there is a cooperation - CoinBr is the "issuer" or operator, Bitfunder provides the trade platform. So the MPBPT can be bought only on bitfunder.com.

CoinBr.com: First online MPEx brokerage launched beta! Easy to use interface and reasonable fees. Charts for MPEx stocks: live.coinbr.com * My Blog *
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December 18, 2012, 10:01:50 AM
 #9

If 007 were named MPOE, after the self introduction of 007, the bad guy would  have already laughed to death and it would be the End of the movie.

16SvwJtQET7mkHZFFbJpgPaDA1Pxtmbm5P
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December 18, 2012, 12:29:09 PM
 #10

MP released historical data for the bonds that made me realize spreadsheet published by me was wrong for October 2012. Fixed & added data for January and February.

CoinBr.com: First online MPEx brokerage launched beta! Easy to use interface and reasonable fees. Charts for MPEx stocks: live.coinbr.com * My Blog *
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December 19, 2012, 11:17:23 PM
 #11

Since MPOE bonds contain user serviceable parts (the interest rate), any word on what strategy you will be using?

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December 19, 2012, 11:46:40 PM
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Since MPOE bonds contain user serviceable parts (the interest rate), any word on what strategy you will be using?

Was wondering that myself.  Think it depends a bit how many chunks of bonds he can buy (isn't there some minimum block?) and what he knows about other people's bidding strategies.

Game-theory wise it's almost a classic Prisoner's Dilemma scenario - where optimum strategy for bond purchasers collectively is if EVERYONE bids very high but the optimum for any individual prospective investor is to bid the lowest rate they're willing to accept.

One thing's for sure - as a good portion of the time (including last month) the raised capital didn't cover needed capital there needs to be ONE block of bonds from someone asking whatever the maximum allowable rate is.  Were I investing in this, and if I knew others who were, then I'd be looking to collectively fund a bid at 100%, 1000% or whatever the max allowed is - so if all funds are needed it's guaranteed bonds get all of any profits.

If this offering ends up just tiny then really it should probably bid very low (like 2% or something to cover the 1% markup plus trade fees) - and let the big boys bid the rate up.
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December 20, 2012, 06:40:25 AM
 #13

Since MPOE bonds contain user serviceable parts (the interest rate), any word on what strategy you will be using?

From the BitFunder asset Description:
Quote
The interest rate requested on the MPOE bonds will be set to the discretion of the issuer to maximize profit.

Is this what you were looking for? Smiley

BitFunder - Asset Exchange Marketplace https://bitfunder.com
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December 20, 2012, 08:41:35 AM
 #14

Think it depends a bit how many chunks of bonds he can buy (isn't there some minimum block?)

Yes, the minimum is 100, so I guess at least initially he'll be working on one single block.

Game-theory wise it's almost a classic Prisoner's Dilemma scenario - where optimum strategy for bond purchasers collectively is if EVERYONE bids very high but the optimum for any individual prospective investor is to bid the lowest rate they're willing to accept.

Upon explaining that mpoe loss ... Maybe there's indeed some room for improvement, looks like nothing is going to stop bondholders to increase requested interest and thus they prevent any MPOE profit (to be paid to shareholders). The competition on interest rate is ineffective, as bondholders seems to calculate that they won't get whole interest anyway.
Maybe bondholder with lower asked interest should be rewarded by lower risk (allocate lesser part of loss to him)?

The bond auction actually works as a disaster of commons, because everyone receives the same interest as the highest rate accepted, but each bondholder's chances of making the cut are an inverse function of the interest asked. Thus the selfish play is to ask for 0% and make sure you're always going to be on the top of the list, receiving whatever % the tail manages to negotiate.

In fact the optimum strategy for bond purchasers collectively is for someone (not for everyone) to ask high, but for each individually to ask low. On analysis this situation is slightly different both from the prisoner dilemma (where indeed best strategy collectively is for everyone to x but best strategy individually is for each to y) and from the classical disaster of commons (where best strategy for each individually is to take most and give least). Maybe Bitcoin has just created its very own game theory situation.

One thing's for sure - as a good portion of the time (including last month) the raised capital didn't cover needed capital

Actually quite the opposite, if you look at the 1st graph above. Most of the time raised capital covered needs. The exceptions are last month, when needs suddenly spiked up 335%, and April, where needs spiked up 330% (merely this stability in spikes seems remarkable to my eye). The bondholders quickly covered the difference in May, and May-Oct there's no red (ie, creditor of last resort contribution).

What possibly throws you off is the period before Mar 2012, but quoting from the article introducing the bonds:

Quote
Currently I am (by virtue of inertia mostly) the only lender of MPOE, on the basis of the following agreement: for a 2% premium on any capital lent (calculated as above), I will eat any losses that may arise.

This deal is now open to anyone! In order to finance MPOE, you have to

This was 20th of February 2012, so the first month where third parties could buy bonds was March, and that's why all months prior show 100% last resort coverage.

Were I investing in this, and if I knew others who were, then I'd be looking to collectively fund a bid at 100%, 1000% or whatever the max allowed is

Bond interest asked was originally limited at 2%, then this limit was raised to 5% on macroeconomic data, and after August proved that presumptions of macroeconomic stability were muchly exaggerated the ceiling was removed completely. It is possible it may come back but from what I gather somewhat unlikely. At any rate for now there's no maximum.

That aside, simply having a 1000% interest as the 100 BTC capper of a 10, 50, 100k BTC train of bonds all charging < 1% is obviously not a winning strategy by itself, as it will make all the BTC if and when the needs exceed capital, but it won't make very much otherwise. The agreement in the Board is that the only optimal strategy and only stable strategy is for each individual player to bid exactly the interest rate that he judges adequate on the market as he knows it. They don't have formal proof for this yet (it has been sought on and off for a little over half a year so far).

Is this what you were looking for? Smiley

Yeah well I saw that, but was curious if anything more elaborate was contemplated.

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December 20, 2012, 12:16:53 PM
 #15

As we are going to be only a small fish so far, we  won't do any elaborate strategies. Just set the rate conservatively, if the deadline was today, we'd go for 4.8%.

CoinBr.com: First online MPEx brokerage launched beta! Easy to use interface and reasonable fees. Charts for MPEx stocks: live.coinbr.com * My Blog *
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December 20, 2012, 12:45:59 PM
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if the deadline was today, we'd go for 4.8%.

So something like "last month's effective rate"? That may work.

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December 20, 2012, 09:40:01 PM
 #17

Promotional offer sold off!  Wink

CoinBr.com: First online MPEx brokerage launched beta! Easy to use interface and reasonable fees. Charts for MPEx stocks: live.coinbr.com * My Blog *
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December 27, 2012, 04:58:29 PM
 #18

Only approx. 48 hours left to closing of the January offer! Afterwards, you will be able to buy CoinBr.MPBPT-O January 2013 shares only if someone else will be willing to part with them Smiley

Opening of CoinBr.MPBPT-E for February 2013 is scheduled on January 1.

CoinBr.com: First online MPEx brokerage launched beta! Easy to use interface and reasonable fees. Charts for MPEx stocks: live.coinbr.com * My Blog *
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December 29, 2012, 12:46:04 AM
 #19

Price in December was stable, closing at nice 13.37 USD/BTC and that brought solid profit both to bondholders - 4.99% and shareholders. December MPOE statement.

CoinBr.com: First online MPEx brokerage launched beta! Easy to use interface and reasonable fees. Charts for MPEx stocks: live.coinbr.com * My Blog *
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January 02, 2013, 10:30:36 PM
 #20

While the January bonds are sold and are busy covering MPOE options, window for funding February bonds opens - the CoinBr.MPBPT-E asset on BitFunder.

First round of CoinBr.MPBPT-O has shown that rewarding early buyers works, so it's offered again - first moment buyers will get best price! Check the order book.

CoinBr.com: First online MPEx brokerage launched beta! Easy to use interface and reasonable fees. Charts for MPEx stocks: live.coinbr.com * My Blog *
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