Is this math right?

[MasterMG]

Is my above post accurate?

[1715121519]

1715121519

[1715121519]

1715121519

[QuintLeo]

The next batch of Antminer S7 at 3 cents/kwh is VERY VERY iffy on if it will ever achieve a positive ROI.

 10% diff increase seems to be a conservative LOW SIDE estimate for diff increases up to the halfing, then I expect to see a short-term dip as some folks shut down their no-longer-even-CLOSE-to-profitable old gear, then it will probably start rising again.
 How much it will climb depends a lot on how soon the 14/16NM generation hits full production at the manufacturers, and how fast they can make those units.

[soy]

Don't listen the liars above, they're just trying to keep the profits to themselves!!!

Go ahead and start mining, live like a king! I got into mining in 2012 and now I've got a Ferrari, a Tesla, and I live in a mansion, all thanks to bitcoin mining! Anyone with a half brain should buy mining gear and start minting money right away. Do Not Wait!!

LOL  But I look back on my bitcoin interests and when I started I managed to _buy_ a bitcoin by going to Walmart and getting a money transfer or something, back when even with the fees the bitcoin cost me like $27 and it wasn't long before I sold a single bitcoin and bought a 3 foot Samsung Smart TV.  Loving it I bought a ztex that was way over priced, then thumb asics, and then a Mercury - I was riding  high and added another card to the Merc.  I had been completely duped by MtGox as safe and lost maybe half my bitcoins.  Then S3's, S3+'s, C1's and an S5.  But I never really knew my true electric costs and was busily caught up in keeping them running.  Then I did the math and discovered my electric utility had different rates for winter and summer and found I was running at a loss.  I had always kept my winter heating bills low, turning off the heat when I'd be out and dropping it way down at night, never mind the long underware throughout winter months.  A thing that is when heating with bitcoin miners, one really doesn't want to shut them down and light them up every time one goes shopping so some are running at a loss when it isn't smart.  And the 113 difficulty - and Eligius having a round time of 59 hours right now and the last was 2 days at least, things are tough.  But I love the TV.

Oh, forgot I prepaid for a jalapeno then waited and waited and waited and when it arrived its hashrate was just a little inside the low hashrate return product acceptance - like they begrudged sending out products to those who prepaid and sent the better to friends and new buyers at a huge markup - and at that point when the Jalapeno arrived it was just about at break even.

[Indianacoin]

I have made the math simpler for you. Click here. This will lead to a website called Coinwarz, where you can find profitability chart based on SHA-256 and other mining.

Upon checking that site you can clearly see that you will face a straight loss of $2.60 from your revenue of $1.93 everyday if you mine Bitcoin. If you consider mining Digitalcoin (DGC) for now, you will face a lesser loss of $0.74 from your revenue of $3.79.

Ultimately you are ending up losing your money at electricity costs. Now if you want to mine just for fun you can do so or you can start mining solo on -ck's pool in hopes of finding a block.

[soy]

Ultimately you are ending up losing your money at electricity costs. Now if you want to mine just for fun you can do so or you can start mining solo on -ck's pool in hopes of finding a block.

I wonder if the money spent monthly on electric solo mining might be more profitably spent on Fantasy Five every time the pot goes over $200k. 

[notlist3d]

Don't listen the liars above, they're just trying to keep the profits to themselves!!!

Go ahead and start mining, live like a king! I got into mining in 2012 and now I've got a Ferrari, a Tesla, and I live in a mansion, all thanks to bitcoin mining! Anyone with a half brain should buy mining gear and start minting money right away. Do Not Wait!!

LOL  But I look back on my bitcoin interests and when I started I managed to _buy_ a bitcoin by going to Walmart and getting a money transfer or something, back when even with the fees the bitcoin cost me like $27 and it wasn't long before I sold a single bitcoin and bought a 3 foot Samsung Smart TV.  Loving it I bought a ztex that was way over priced, then thumb asics, and then a Mercury - I was riding  high and added another card to the Merc.  I had been completely duped by MtGox as safe and lost maybe half my bitcoins.  Then S3's, S3+'s, C1's and an S5.  But I never really knew my true electric costs and was busily caught up in keeping them running.  Then I did the math and discovered my electric utility had different rates for winter and summer and found I was running at a loss.  I had always kept my winter heating bills low, turning off the heat when I'd be out and dropping it way down at night, never mind the long underware throughout winter months.  A thing that is when heating with bitcoin miners, one really doesn't want to shut them down and light them up every time one goes shopping so some are running at a loss when it isn't smart.  And the 113 difficulty - and Eligius having a round time of 59 hours right now and the last was 2 days at least, things are tough.  But I love the TV.

Oh, forgot I prepaid for a jalapeno then waited and waited and waited and when it arrived its hashrate was just a little inside the low hashrate return product acceptance - like they begrudged sending out products to those who prepaid and sent the better to friends and new buyers at a huge markup - and at that point when the Jalapeno arrived it was just about at break even.

I would like to see numbers but I don't think most broke even with Jalepeno's.  But that is the nature of some companies luckily seems less are doing releases like that at this point, sad part of that is there are less gear being released compared to then.   

Most that bought Jalepeno's if they would have held coins had a huge difference between what they made off Jalepeno and what they would have had just holding.  I never invest on just prototypes anymore.  Terrahash was the company that about got me.

[soy]

Oh, forgot I prepaid for a jalapeno then waited and waited and waited and when it arrived its hashrate was just a little inside the low hashrate return product acceptance - like they begrudged sending out products to those who prepaid and sent the better to friends and new buyers at a huge markup - and at that point when the Jalapeno arrived it was just about at break even.

I would like to see numbers but I don't think most broke even with Jalepeno's.  But that is the nature of some companies luckily seems less are doing releases like that at this point, sad part of that is there are less gear being released compared to then.   

Yes. I misspoke.  I meant break even in the power cost versus bitcoin mined value.

[dumada]

I have made the math simpler for you. Click here. This will lead to a website called Coinwarz, where you can find profitability chart based on SHA-256 and other mining.

Upon checking that site you can clearly see that you will face a straight loss of $2.60 from your revenue of $1.93 everyday if you mine Bitcoin. If you consider mining Digitalcoin (DGC) for now, you will face a lesser loss of $0.74 from your revenue of $3.79.

Ultimately you are ending up losing your money at electricity costs. Now if you want to mine just for fun you can do so or you can start mining solo on -ck's pool in hopes of finding a block.

The electricity cost is the key here. Mining is not viable for people living in UK, Germany or Califonia. The price is too high there.

[QuintLeo]

If I had to pick single figures I would go for 8% for each 14 Day difficulty period up to the halving in July. Then after that 5%. I would hope that these numbers are a bit high, but who knows what Spondoolies & Bitfury etc are going to be deploying?

Rich

 I'd guess that 8% figure is more likely, on average, 'till the halfing - and might be LOW.
 I've been using 10% on my figuring for a while.

 Yes, the S7 and Avalon 6 sales will probably slow down - but then comes the B-Eleven (even if BW doesn't SELL any, they go into the farm) - and sometime soon, proabably BEFORE the halfing, 14/16nm gear will hit full production from at least one and more likely 2 to 4 manufacturers (KnC claimed Solar was in production a little while back though their block figures don't support them having made very many if any Solar-based miners yet, BitFury is demoing early production chips, Bitmain might have their next gen gear taped out by now, Innosilicon should have the A3 in production shortly).



 The ONLY reason I can see for the average to stay under 10% is if (1) production on the 14/16nm gear hits yeild issues limiting how many can be built for a while, or (2) the diff goes up enough folks start turning off a LOT of 2-gen old (like the S5, SP20, and whatever the comparable BitFury gen gear was) and older gear because it becomes unprofitable before the halfiing.

[alh]

Besides the items mentioned above, I'll add that a sustained decline in the price of Bitcoin will slow difficulty growth big time. If BTC were to drop below $200 and stay there for 3 months, the impact on difficulty would be obvious.  The appetite for new hardware would wane, along with a great deal of gear becoming unprofitable to run.

While some people compute ROI using BTC only, 90% of the rest of the world has to pay an electric bill in fiat, along with rent, salaries, and so forth. When the profit margins become very small, or disappear, they will discontinue mining and then difficulty will stop increasing.

[Amph]

I have made the math simpler for you. Click here. This will lead to a website called Coinwarz, where you can find profitability chart based on SHA-256 and other mining.

Upon checking that site you can clearly see that you will face a straight loss of $2.60 from your revenue of $1.93 everyday if you mine Bitcoin. If you consider mining Digitalcoin (DGC) for now, you will face a lesser loss of $0.74 from your revenue of $3.79.

Ultimately you are ending up losing your money at electricity costs. Now if you want to mine just for fun you can do so or you can start mining solo on -ck's pool in hopes of finding a block.

The electricity cost is the key here. Mining is not viable for people living in UK, Germany or Califonia. The price is too high there.

cloud mining born for a reason, why you can not simply try to rent hash on hashnest for example, it's already well known that they are legit, and you will have your cheap electricity with them

but even with that cheap electricity, roi is an hard work in any case

[RichBC]

If I had to pick single figures I would go for 8% for each 14 Day difficulty period up to the halving in July. Then after that 5%. I would hope that these numbers are a bit high, but who knows what Spondoolies & Bitfury etc are going to be deploying?

Rich

 I'd guess that 8% figure is more likely, on average, 'till the halfing - and might be LOW.
 I've been using 10% on my figuring for a while.

 Yes, the S7 and Avalon 6 sales will probably slow down - but then comes the B-Eleven (even if BW doesn't SELL any, they go into the farm) - and sometime soon, proabably BEFORE the halfing, 14/16nm gear will hit full production from at least one and more likely 2 to 4 manufacturers (KnC claimed Solar was in production a little while back though their block figures don't support them having made very many if any Solar-based miners yet, BitFury is demoing early production chips, Bitmain might have their next gen gear taped out by now, Innosilicon should have the A3 in production shortly).



 The ONLY reason I can see for the average to stay under 10% is if (1) production on the 14/16nm gear hits yeild issues limiting how many can be built for a while, or (2) the diff goes up enough folks start turning off a LOT of 2-gen old (like the S5, SP20, and whatever the comparable BitFury gen gear was) and older gear because it becomes unprofitable before the halfiing.

Worth remembering that even 8% Month on Month soon ads up. Have not done the exact maths but I suspect that it would close to double the Difficulty by the halving....


Rich

[QuintLeo]

Difficulty adjustments are normally about twice a month. At 8% per diff adjustment, the difficulty will MUCH MORE than double by halfing.

[RichBC]

Difficulty adjustments are normally about twice a month. At 8% per diff adjustment, the difficulty will MUCH MORE than double by halfing.

You are right. I have just done the maths and if we see 8% increases every 14 Days, the we would see the Doubling on May 12th.

Shows how deceptive an apparently low number like 8% is, when compounded only needs 4 Months for a doubling. So let's hope, as I hoped, that on average it is less than 8%...


Rich

[QuintLeo]

It's the law of compound interest in a different application.
5% interest for 14 years appx doubles your money, if compounded at least annually.

[notlist3d]

Difficulty adjustments are normally about twice a month. At 8% per diff adjustment, the difficulty will MUCH MORE than double by halfing.

You are right. I have just done the maths and if we see 8% increases every 14 Days, the we would see the Doubling on May 12th.

Shows how deceptive an apparently low number like 8% is, when compounded only needs 4 Months for a doubling. So let's hope, as I hoped, that on average it is less than 8%...


Rich

Compound interest is one of the amazing things in finance.  It can work for or against you depending on situation.  But it is amazing over time what it can do.

What I wish I could speculate better is the value of BTC around having.  We are slowly making it back up since the last bump.  But I just hope Mike Hearn can handle not being in the top news on BTC and stops doing statements 2 so far neither helped BTC value.   Short term it's not been the greatest with that and cryptsy.

[dumada]

Difficulty adjustments are normally about twice a month. At 8% per diff adjustment, the difficulty will MUCH MORE than double by halfing.

You are right. I have just done the maths and if we see 8% increases every 14 Days, the we would see the Doubling on May 12th.

Shows how deceptive an apparently low number like 8% is, when compounded only needs 4 Months for a doubling. So let's hope, as I hoped, that on average it is less than 8%...


Rich

The rise of difficulty will be much higher when the 16 nm chip based miner come out from BitFury and BitMain.

[Amph]

Difficulty adjustments are normally about twice a month. At 8% per diff adjustment, the difficulty will MUCH MORE than double by halfing.

You are right. I have just done the maths and if we see 8% increases every 14 Days, the we would see the Doubling on May 12th.

Shows how deceptive an apparently low number like 8% is, when compounded only needs 4 Months for a doubling. So let's hope, as I hoped, that on average it is less than 8%...


Rich

The rise of difficulty will be much higher when the 16 nm chip based miner come out from BitFury and BitMain.

it depend on the value, there is a limit of the diff increase if the value do not increase in the future, and for the time being seems stagnant, so the diff will not increase indefinitely

i'm expecting a slow down soon, if the value stays the same

[notlist3d]

Difficulty adjustments are normally about twice a month. At 8% per diff adjustment, the difficulty will MUCH MORE than double by halfing.

You are right. I have just done the maths and if we see 8% increases every 14 Days, the we would see the Doubling on May 12th.

Shows how deceptive an apparently low number like 8% is, when compounded only needs 4 Months for a doubling. So let's hope, as I hoped, that on average it is less than 8%...


Rich

The rise of difficulty will be much higher when the 16 nm chip based miner come out from BitFury and BitMain.

it depend on the value, there is a limit of the diff increase if the value do not increase in the future, and for the time being seems stagnant, so the diff will not increase indefinitely

i'm expectign a slow down soon, if the value stays the same

I'm not sure on slow down.  We have a LOT of big players with cheap electricity, they can run at a profit where most regular people cannot.   For example this week looks horrible on jump up, and price is going down.

So right now.... not to bright future on mining.   Will this change before having? After? No one really knows or can give a good speculation as it's a long time away in crypto world.

[Amph]

Difficulty adjustments are normally about twice a month. At 8% per diff adjustment, the difficulty will MUCH MORE than double by halfing.

You are right. I have just done the maths and if we see 8% increases every 14 Days, the we would see the Doubling on May 12th.

Shows how deceptive an apparently low number like 8% is, when compounded only needs 4 Months for a doubling. So let's hope, as I hoped, that on average it is less than 8%...


Rich

The rise of difficulty will be much higher when the 16 nm chip based miner come out from BitFury and BitMain.

it depend on the value, there is a limit of the diff increase if the value do not increase in the future, and for the time being seems stagnant, so the diff will not increase indefinitely

i'm expectign a slow down soon, if the value stays the same

I'm not sure on slow down.  We have a LOT of big players with cheap electricity, they can run at a profit where most regular people cannot.   For example this week looks horrible on jump up, and price is going down.

So right now.... not to bright future on mining.   Will this change before having? After? No one really knows or can give a good speculation as it's a long time away in crypto world.

ah well i'm not counting free electricity, does can mine forever, but big farms are not sitting on free electricity, they still have plenty of margin though, they are currently at 5/1 in the ratio between consumption and earning, you can check for yourself

1 antminer earn $7.5 a day = 225 a month vs $45 a month in consumption