2nd batch of butterfly,btcfgpa,avalon &co will make NO PROFIT and loss their $

[mah87]

Here is my point:


Admitting 500Th will be reach in 2 month (and it's a low estimation)

You'll broadly win 150$/month for a 60gh/s machine (admitting 1btc = 10$ <= I think it's optimistic).

Except that mining devices cost will probably go down after the 2nd pre-order release so the Hrate will grow again.

Chance to make profit ? close to zero. At the best you'll got your money back but don't expect profit.


To have a good image= > 500Th in 2 month means broadly 10 000 000$ investment in new devices => 10 000 people ready to spend 1000$ each (I know it's not the good repartition but expecting this level of investment don't seems that hardcore to me..)



To be clear, I'm not trolling here, just posing some hypothesis, just want to create the debate, please share your analysis of the situation!

[CoinHoarder]

Here is my point:


Admitting 500Th will be reach in 2 month (and it's a low estimation)

You'll broadly win 150$/month for a 60gh/s machine (admitting 1btc = 10$ <= I think it's optimistic).

Except that mining devices cost will probably go down after the 2nd pre-order release so the Hrate will grow again.

Chance to make profit ? close to zero. At the best you'll got your money back but don't expect profit.


To have a good image= > 500Th in 2 month means broadly 10 000 000$ investment in new devices => 10 000 people ready to spend 1000$ each (I know it's not the good repartition but expecting this level of investment don't seems that hardcore to me..)



To be clear, I'm not trolling here, just posing some hypothesis, just want to create the debate, please share your analysis of the situation!

+ "goliath" hash speed https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130386.0.

EDIT: umm ya 500 Th in two months seems a little high, maybe like 6 months.

[SgtSpike]

If you think 500 TH/s is a low estimate, I will gladly take you up on a bet of significant size.  There's no way in hell we're reaching 500 TH/s within 2 months.

[SgtSpike]

If you think 500 TH/s is a low estimate, I will gladly take you up on a bet of significant size.  There's no way in hell we're reaching 500 TH/s within 2 months.

Maybe but I would like some arguments here.

I ordered a 60gh in november, so I assume I'm part of the 2nd batch, order number is +13 000...

13000 * 60 = 780Th...

Please justify what you are saying. My point is that when the second batch will arrive (wtv if it's 1,2 or 3 month after the fisrt one) profitability will be null.


Not saying you are wrong just curious where I am wrong.

95% of those order numbers are not orders.  It'll generate an order number as soon as a person clicks to buy on BFL's website, but they can choose whether or not to pay for it.  And I can guarantee that some people purposefully do that to increase the order number and discourage others from ordering.

[MrTeal]

OK, let's say that is it true.

What shoud we think about the BFL statement ?? " The good news is that our shipment of chips will be substantial and we are re-addressing the quantities and compacting the shipment dates. We will have just shy of 100,000 chips available and in our hands before the end of the year, coming in two waves. The first wave blablabla..."

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a.html


So if there is something I don't understand please help me cause here I just interpret that as a 500Th in 2month...(100 000 chips ..?)

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showwiki.php?title=FAQ:Get+Rich+Quick+Not+so+fast&viewfull=1&page=2&do=comments#post8468

Josh has posted more recently that the batch they're getting from the foundry will be 100k chips.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showwiki.php?title=FAQ:Get+Rich+Quick+Not+so+fast&viewfull=1&page=2&do=comments#post8470

That's actually changed with the last delay. The first set of chips is likely to be smaller with a much larger quantity coming shortly thereafter. I will probably be walking the first set through all the steps to completion, so in the interests of speed, it will be a smaller quantity and assuming all goes fine there, the larger quantity would be arriving after that.

BFL in the past has said that 20k chips would be enough for all the preorders and then some, and the number of preorders hasn't grown that much since then.
I highly doubt BFL has orders for 100k chips, they're just getting all the chips they expect for the foreseeable future ordered and onhand so that if sales do go very well they don't have to worry about another couple month delay.
I would expect that at this time next year we could be looking at a petahash/s network, but I think 500TH/s two months after the first unit hits is probably high. There will be teething issues related to building and shipping them that will take time to work out as well. Keep in mind (just looking at BFL) 500TH/s is equivalent to 150 Minirigs and 4500 Singles. That's 2.5 Minirigs a day and 75 Singles to get them out in 2 months.

Also, why do you think $10/BTC is optimistic?

[SgtSpike]

If you think 500 TH/s is a low estimate, I will gladly take you up on a bet of significant size.  There's no way in hell we're reaching 500 TH/s within 2 months.

Maybe but I would like some arguments here.

I ordered a 60gh in november, so I assume I'm part of the 2nd batch, order number is +13 000...

13000 * 60 = 780Th...

Please justify what you are saying. My point is that when the second batch will arrive (wtv if it's 1,2 or 3 month after the fisrt one) profitability will be null.


Not saying you are wrong just curious where I am wrong.

95% of those order numbers are not orders.  It'll generate an order number as soon as a person clicks to buy on BFL's website, but they can choose whether or not to pay for it.  And I can guarantee that some people purposefully do that to increase the order number and discourage others from ordering.

OK, let's say that is it true.

What shoud we think about the BFL statement ?? " The good news is that our shipment of chips will be substantial and we are re-addressing the quantities and compacting the shipment dates. We will have just shy of 100,000 chips available and in our hands before the end of the year, coming in two waves. The first wave blablabla..."

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a.html


So if there is something I don't understand please help me cause here I just interpret that as a 500Th in 2month...(100 000 chips ..?)

That's at least 5 times the chips they will need to fill all current preorders.

[Dalkore]

If you think 500 TH/s is a low estimate, I will gladly take you up on a bet of significant size.  There's no way in hell we're reaching 500 TH/s within 2 months.

Why not take on a bet of non-significant size?  I think you have a winner here.


I don't think we will hit 500 TH/s in 60 days after ASIC launch either.   Also I have run calculations that I am using to see if I will actually buy an ASIC 2nd batch. 

[MrTeal]

10$ is optimistic cause it's a high price for an uncertain period I think. Stating 10$ cause I don't wanna put variable price in my equation =)

I repeat i'm talking here about the 2nd batch profitability (just to be sure , don't wanna talk about the 3 first guy receiving their devices).

Let's say the 20 000 preorder number is ok (but probably more now).

20 000 chip for the preorder.

and let's say 5 000 for each of the other main competitor.

total = 35 000

Let's say that the global average is 10gh/device

We have 350Th for the preorder. Concretly it means +/-200$/month for 60gh
So it means you'll hardly get your bet back in a year. And you'll probably make not profit (as you said we'll reach 1000 in a year ...etc 100 000chips for the year...)

What do you think?

I think you should do more research.
Each BFL chip does 7.5GH/s. The 60GH/s SC Single has 8 chips. 20K chips is thus about 150TH/s. BFL's also said that a preorder placed today will probably ship Feb or March. Avalon's first batch is 300 units at 66GH/s (20TH/s), and the second batch isn't expected until mid-late February. bASIC's first batch is about 900 units (up to a max of maybe 1000) at 72GH/s each. Say 72TH/s. Their second batch is supposed to be end of February. ASICminer should add 12TH/s or so in their first batch. Reclaimer has been very quiet lately. I don't expect them to add anything to the network any time soon, same goes for Goliath.
Add that all up, and you're looking at maybe 250TH/s by the end of February.

[puck2]

What do you think?

...it remains to be seen if BTC will break the $14 wall. a lot of your calculations are made in $USD, but many of us bought with lower value BTC, either mined, or like me, bought at about $5 USD. So initial investment is 1/2 of what you are thinking.

[grue]

What do you think?

...it remains to be seen if BTC will break the $14 wall. a lot of your calculations are made in $USD, but many of us bought with lower value BTC, either mined, or like me, bought at about $5 USD. So initial investment is 1/2 of what you are thinking.

not sure if trolling...

you could cancel your preorder right now and double your money. the price of bitcoin at the time you placed the order has no relevance to what your current investment is.

[crazyates]

Rather than listening to rantings like the OP, I think people should be looking at this post for their information: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=121624.msg1312758#msg1312758

The numbers have changed a little since then: bASIC has increased from 54 to 72GH/s, and the Avalon will most likely not use 400W, but the charts speak for themselves. Even at high electric costs and high network variables, most ASICs will still be profitable for a year to a year and a half. At low electric costs and smaller growth, there's the potential for 3 years of profitability. Now 3 years is quite a ways away, and a lot can change in that time.

[SgtSpike]

10$ is optimistic cause it's a high price for an uncertain period I think. Stating 10$ cause I don't wanna put variable price in my equation =)

I repeat i'm talking here about the 2nd batch profitability (just to be sure , don't wanna talk about the 3 first guy receiving their devices).

Let's say the 20 000 preorder number is ok (but probably more now).

20 000 chip for the preorder.

and let's say 5 000 for each of the other main competitor.

total = 35 000

Let's say that the global average is 10gh/device

We have 350Th for the preorder. Concretly it means +/-200$/month for 60gh
So it means you'll hardly get your bet back in a year. And you'll probably make not profit (as you said we'll reach 1000 in a year ...etc 100 000chips for the year...)

What do you think?

I think you should do more research.
Each BFL chip does 7.5GH/s. The 60GH/s SC Single has 8 chips. 20K chips is thus about 150TH/s. BFL's also said that a preorder placed today will probably ship Feb or March. Avalon's first batch is 300 units at 66GH/s (20TH/s), and the second batch isn't expected until mid-late February. bASIC's first batch is about 900 units (up to a max of maybe 1000) at 72GH/s each. Say 72TH/s. Their second batch is supposed to be end of February. ASICminer should add 12TH/s or so in their first batch. Reclaimer has been very quiet lately. I don't expect them to add anything to the network any time soon, same goes for Goliath.
Add that all up, and you're looking at maybe 250TH/s by the end of February.

Ok, first thing, it seems that I don't know what is a chip , any link documentation ? =) (if a chip is 7,5gh what's inside a jalapeno , 1/2 chip ? ;.. wtv) thanks in advance.

So let's bet that I'll have my single SC 60Gh when the network is at 250Gh/s, at this point I'll need at least 6month to get my money back right ? (actually onyl 4month at 250gh but I bet that the hrate will grow of course)

What do you think ?

Taking into account ALL of the current preorders, we are looking at 200-250 TH/s.  Sure, the hashrate will grow down the line, but if you're talking about a device ordered today (to be delivered after all current preorders are filled), it's not going to grow that much in 4 months.  Your payback might be extended 1-2 months is all.  It's not like there's going to be a huge rush of orders that magically appear once the preorders are delivered.  SOME more orders, sure, but once people take into account the current hashrate, the current payback period, the risk of other people ordering ASICs and increasing the hashrate, and the risk of an ASIC price decrease, I can't see break-even raising beyond 7-8 months for quite some time.

[Korbman]

95% of those order numbers are not orders.  It'll generate an order number as soon as a person clicks to buy on BFL's website, but they can choose whether or not to pay for it.  And I can guarantee that some people purposefully do that to increase the order number and discourage others from ordering.

OK, let's say that is it true.

Oh it's definitely true. I've created a few dozen "orders" alone just to test out various prices, order combos, and sometimes to get screenshots. For a while I debated about scripting up a simple bot that would create thousands of fake orders to help skew the data even more. The only reason I didn't is because it still wouldn't solve anything...newbies would still think that because their number said #104850 there must be that many orders.

thank you for your answers people but say WHAT YOU THINK , what is YOUR prognostic ??

I wrote a quick analysis two months ago on where things will probably go, and so far it seems to be on track. I'll redo it in January to see how things look given the latest preorder numbers, reward split, and any other new data.
Overall, I'm thinking 250-300TH/s over the course of 6 months. So far, that's been a pretty reasonable estimate..but it doesn't take into account declining hardware costs, energy costs, or rising USD/BTC rates.

[crazyates]

Interesting graphs but if I read them well , that's pointless hoping to make profits (break even) before at least 6month (with medieum hypôthesis)
 right ?

thank you for your answers people but say WHAT YOU THINK , what is YOUR prognostic ??

A) Those graphs don't tell how much you will be making. They are simply graphs of how long each miner expects to remain profitable according to his network projections. For all we know, the bASIC could be 15% more profitable compared to a SC Single at the beginning, but the lower power consumption keeps the Single profitable for longer.

B) You're really complaining about a 6 month 100% ROI? I think you need to get off the interwebz a little more.

[MrTeal]

Taking into account ALL of the current preorders, we are looking at 200-250 TH/s.  Sure, the hashrate will grow down the line, but if you're talking about a device ordered today (to be delivered after all current preorders are filled), it's not going to grow that much in 4 months.  Your payback might be extended 1-2 months is all.  It's not like there's going to be a huge rush of orders that magically appear once the preorders are delivered.  SOME more orders, sure, but once people take into account the current hashrate, the current payback period, the risk of other people ordering ASICs and increasing the hashrate, and the risk of an ASIC price decrease, I can't see break-even raising beyond 7-8 months for quite some time.

I go back and forth on how much capacity will be added to the network once all the preorders ship. I think a lot of serious miners have their money invested already, but there is probably a significant amount sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens. If orders don't continue to come in prices will continue to lower until they do. I would be shocked if the marginal cost of a SC Single was more than 1/4 of what they charge, probably more like 1/6. Six months after launch I wouldn't be surprised to see the Single SC selling close to the price of the current FPGA Single.

[Korbman]

Six months after launch I wouldn't be surprised to see the Single SC selling close to the price of the current FPGA Single.

Especially once they have a reliable system in place for their current hardware (and shipping)...and eventually when they begin working on their next generation of mining devices.

[Lethn]

Bitcoins are a currency, not a something you mine out of the ground for profit.

[Korbman]

Bitcoins are a currency.

Just like gold is a currency 

[YipYip]

95% of those order numbers are not orders.  It'll generate an order number as soon as a person clicks to buy on BFL's website, but they can choose whether or not to pay for it.  And I can guarantee that some people purposefully do that to increase the order number and discourage others from ordering.

OK, let's say that is it true.

Oh it's definitely true. I've created a few dozen "orders" alone just to test out various prices, order combos, and sometimes to get screenshots. For a while I debated about scripting up a simple bot that would create thousands of fake orders to help skew the data even more. The only reason I didn't is because it still wouldn't solve anything...newbies would still think that because their number said #104850 there must be that many orders.

thank you for your answers people but say WHAT YOU THINK , what is YOUR prognostic ??

I wrote a quick analysis two months ago on where things will probably go, and so far it seems to be on track. I'll redo it in January to see how things look given the latest preorder numbers, reward split, and any other new data.
Overall, I'm thinking 250-300TH/s over the course of 6 months. So far, that's been a pretty reasonable estimate..but it doesn't take into account declining hardware costs, energy costs, or rising USD/BTC rates.

I agree calcs have 5 million presale for BFL equals 250t/Hash (without bASIC)

Lot of math = ~ 6 months for ROI @ ~500t/Hash ( 500 is wIth bASIC calc of another 250 T/Hash) with NO power costs

This is really going to shake some monkeys out of the tree as the current ~25 T/Hash of equipment gets thrown out the door immediately

I dont really see anything else coming down the pipe for next 2-3 years apart from an elegant implementation of existing ASIC h/w with software that may gain a factor of 3x at most.

It will require a new R&D of a new tech which I dont think there is enough money to justify the investment 54k per day @ $13 btc is what this process is worth without transaction fees coming into play (thats another story)

[meowmeowbrowncow]

My 2 cents.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130457.msg1412144#msg1412144