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Author Topic: Bitcoin mining proof-of-work over the last 6 years as we move to 1 exahash/s  (Read 3017 times)
davejh
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January 07, 2016, 02:00:47 PM
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Continuing my investigations into the nature of the Bitcoin mining network. Here's an overview of how hash rate changes have affected the strength of the Bitcoin blockchain over the last 6 years:

http://hashingit.com/analysis/46-behold-exahash
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January 08, 2016, 07:32:52 AM
 #2

if you think about it, the hashrate it the real measure about the real trend of the value of bitcoin

i mean the hashrate paints perfectly the average increase of the value since bitcoin is born, without all the p&d that occured
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January 08, 2016, 12:59:37 PM
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if you think about it, the hashrate it the real measure about the real trend of the value of bitcoin

i mean the hashrate paints perfectly the average increase of the value since bitcoin is born, without all the p&d that occured

Totally - the network expands to absorb all potential mining rewards in real-world terms. When I first started looking at the mining network a couple of years ago I was struck by the correlation, but it wasn't until a few months later I worked out why. I should probably re-visit that original article, but it pretty-accurately captured the slowdown in hash rate growth that happened in later 2014 and 2015:

http://hashingit.com/analysis/24-megawatts-of-mining

Lately I've also been publishing the source code for the simulations so I'll do the same when I get chance to update this one.
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January 08, 2016, 02:45:00 PM
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if you think about it, the hashrate it the real measure about the real trend of the value of bitcoin

i mean the hashrate paints perfectly the average increase of the value since bitcoin is born, without all the p&d that occured

i think exactly the same, people tend to forget that side from the bitcoin world, there is so much fiat money invested on mining and more will come with the new chips, there must be a correlation between hashrate and bitcoin value.

The last increments from the hashrate it is having repercussions ATM and more will come, is just a question of time Wink
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January 08, 2016, 03:37:44 PM
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i think exactly the same, people tend to forget that side from the bitcoin world, there is so much fiat money invested on mining and more will come with the new chips, there must be a correlation between hashrate and bitcoin value.

The last increments from the hashrate it is having repercussions ATM and more will come, is just a question of time Wink

The 16nm ASICs are clearly going to affect the balance of the network as they're much more power efficient, but so too will the block reward halving that's coming in July (looks like it will stay in July although there's an outside chance it might move into late June). At a stroke the reward halving cuts the funds available to miners unless the BTC price doubles.
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January 08, 2016, 10:07:56 PM
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Yes, money invested in bitcoin mainly come from mining. Money invested in something is a quite accurate measure of the price of that something.

I think if bitcoin has more money invested not coming from mining, then the hashrate would not mimic Bitcoin value as exactly as now.

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January 09, 2016, 08:24:05 PM
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Yes, money invested in bitcoin mainly come from mining. Money invested in something is a quite accurate measure of the price of that something.

I think if bitcoin has more money invested not coming from mining, then the hashrate would not mimic Bitcoin value as exactly as now.

But if there is profit to be made from mining, people will invest in mining, this will cause the difficulty rise. There will be a balance.
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January 10, 2016, 06:08:24 AM
 #8

That will be an awesome day when we will be seeing this happen, but just think as to how much electricity we will need in order for this level to be reached???

Just think what will be the difficulty when this will happen, at that time the miners will cost a lot and home miners won't be able to afford them...

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January 15, 2016, 06:25:37 PM
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i think exactly the same, people tend to forget that side from the bitcoin world, there is so much fiat money invested on mining and more will come with the new chips, there must be a correlation between hashrate and bitcoin value.

The last increments from the hashrate it is having repercussions ATM and more will come, is just a question of time Wink

The 16nm ASICs are clearly going to affect the balance of the network as they're much more power efficient, but so too will the block reward halving that's coming in July (looks like it will stay in July although there's an outside chance it might move into late June). At a stroke the reward halving cuts the funds available to miners unless the BTC price doubles.

Are those 16nm ASICs, that everyone seems to find awesome already produced ? If so, why don't the ASICs manufacturer sell them now ?
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January 15, 2016, 09:14:20 PM
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i think exactly the same, people tend to forget that side from the bitcoin world, there is so much fiat money invested on mining and more will come with the new chips, there must be a correlation between hashrate and bitcoin value.

The last increments from the hashrate it is having repercussions ATM and more will come, is just a question of time Wink

The 16nm ASICs are clearly going to affect the balance of the network as they're much more power efficient, but so too will the block reward halving that's coming in July (looks like it will stay in July although there's an outside chance it might move into late June). At a stroke the reward halving cuts the funds available to miners unless the BTC price doubles.

Are those 16nm ASICs, that everyone seems to find awesome already produced ? If so, why don't the ASICs manufacturer sell them now ?

Most, though not all, of the ASIC Manufacturers produce the complete miner and have decided that it's in their best interests to "self mine". In other words, they produce the miner and install and run it in their own "farm". I think it was KNC that first started doing this, but clearly Bitmain does, along with BitFury and others.
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January 16, 2016, 01:27:23 AM
 #11

We really do need to get more hashpower into the hands of bitcoin users. The centralization happening in China is scary. I'm hoping to hear some big news from BitFury and Bitmaintech.

Btw what happened to Spondoolies? Are they not still in the consumer game?
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January 16, 2016, 03:04:17 AM
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We really do need to get more hashpower into the hands of bitcoin users. The centralization happening in China is scary. I'm hoping to hear some big news from BitFury and Bitmaintech.

Btw what happened to Spondoolies? Are they not still in the consumer game?

Spondoolies gave up on the consumer space last year. It's not clear if the SP20 soured them, or their "marriage" with BTCS. In any event, their only announcement to date has been the SP50, which is supposedly 110TH, with an unknown price, power consumption, or availability date.

I think they had great engineering, but have lost their way with the BTCS "hookup".
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January 30, 2016, 05:12:47 PM
 #13

We really do need to get more hashpower into the hands of bitcoin users. The centralization happening in China is scary. I'm hoping to hear some big news from BitFury and Bitmaintech.

Btw what happened to Spondoolies? Are they not still in the consumer game?

Spondoolies gave up on the consumer space last year. It's not clear if the SP20 soured them, or their "marriage" with BTCS. In any event, their only announcement to date has been the SP50, which is supposedly 110TH, with an unknown price, power consumption, or availability date.

I think they had great engineering, but have lost their way with the BTCS "hookup".

S7 is 4.7T. The SP50 is 110T, that is almost 22 S7. How do people supply the power to the huge miner?
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January 31, 2016, 04:34:00 AM
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The bitcoin hash rate does not have JACK SHIT to do with the future perceived value of bitcoins.  Just because a bunch of jackasses (anyone who owns an ASIC) were gullible enough to dump their life savings into ASICs, does not mean that the price of bitcoins next week will or will not be $1 or $1000.

I've been telling you, and no one wants to listen to me.  If the price crashes, and you have a house full of now useless miners, just remember.... I told you so! Roll Eyes
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February 06, 2016, 12:56:57 PM
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1 exahash today means nothing tomorrow if everyone suddenly realizes what fools they are for dumping so much money into bitcoin mining, and shut off their miners tomorrow.
philipma1957
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February 09, 2016, 04:29:27 AM
 #16

1 exahash today means nothing tomorrow if everyone suddenly realizes what fools they are for dumping so much money into bitcoin mining, and shut off their miners tomorrow.


See that word if I bolded. your if above and my if below

I predict that on Valentines day feb 14th if every one read this post the BTC price will rise to 2000 usd in under 1 day and slowly  fall back down to 1500 over the next 24 days.


So which if will prove true?

Most likely neither one.


I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
Zitudent
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February 11, 2016, 09:44:26 AM
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1 exahash today means nothing tomorrow if everyone suddenly realizes what fools they are for dumping so much money into bitcoin mining, and shut off their miners tomorrow.


See that word if I bolded. your if above and my if below

I predict that on Valentines day feb 14th if every one read this post the BTC price will rise to 2000 usd in under 1 day and slowly  fall back down to 1500 over the next 24 days.


So which if will prove true?

Most likely neither one.



Do you mean the Valentines day in 2017? It is very possible for the bitcoin price to be over $2000.
philipma1957
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February 11, 2016, 01:51:34 PM
 #18

1 exahash today means nothing tomorrow if everyone suddenly realizes what fools they are for dumping so much money into bitcoin mining, and shut off their miners tomorrow.


See that word if I bolded. your if above and my if below

I predict that on Valentines day feb 14th if every one read this post the BTC price will rise to 2000 usd in under 1 day and slowly  fall back down to 1500 over the next 24 days.


So which if will prove true?

Most likely neither one.



Do you mean the Valentines day in 2017? It is very possible for the bitcoin price to be over $2000.

Clever point I didn't mention what year did I? Wink

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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