That's like betting on every Color on the Roulette table. You'll loose anyway.
Except in this case,
every color will win. The question is just which one will win first. Inclusive vs Exclusive. Your analogy is flawed.
No. Only red (Avalon) will win in this case. They will be the first ones. At the current, low difficulty, they will generate their owners a (small) fortune. The rest (BFL, bASIC) can be happy to achieve break even.
While I agree that Avalon is likely to be first to ship at this point, despite being the third of three to announce a delay, their first batch is only 300 units and will take some time to deploy. Even after adding every one of these 300 units to the network(19.8TH), If BTCFPGA gets their ducks in a row their early customers will also enjoy a windfall. I've less confidence that BFL can get anything ASIC out to customers in January. There's also ASICMiner to worry about as they claim to have chips completed and I believe are currently packaging/QCing them.
