Losing a martingale is easier than you think

[erre]

... indeed, with an house edge of 1% and betting 2x, you have 19.33% of chances to encounter an 8 losing streak in your first 100 bets. 1/5, not so hard...

The math behind this is really hard, I struggled a bit to find it out and I definitely can't understand it, but for people who can here's the link:

http://www.askamathematician.com/2010/07/q-whats-the-chance-of-getting-a-run-of-k-successes-in-n-bernoulli-trials-why-use-approximations-when-the-exact-answer-is-known/


And, for lazy people like me, here you can find a calculator:

http://maxgriffin.net/CalcStreaks.shtml


I'm just sharing, because I was asking thiis question myself for a time, and now I found the answer

[pinoycash]

I have done many approaches on that martingale strategy, We will need a large bankroll to survive a 8 losing streak and up. but in the end you will only win the base bet.

[erre]

I have done many approaches on that martingale strategy, We will need a large bankroll to survive a 8 losing streak and up. but in the end you will only win the base bet.

No. You wins n time the base bet. This calculations tell you that if you bet 1 and you want to make 100 profit, with a 2550 bankroll (so you can afford 8 strike loss) you have 19.3% chances of getting busted before making your goal!

[maku]

I always said that: don't rely on martingale as full proof strategy to carry you every game.
It was proven long time ago and and since then many times , that martingale (in any variation, really) is only viable with infinite bank roll which is impossible to achieve.
You can have some luck with it in short session, but then you can be lucky without it too.

[edmundduke]

... indeed, with an house edge of 1% and betting 2x, you have 19.33% of chances to encounter an 8 losing streak in your first 100 bets. 1/5, not so hard...

The math behind this is really hard, I struggled a bit to find it out and I definitely can't understand it, but for people who can here's the link:

http://www.askamathematician.com/2010/07/q-whats-the-chance-of-getting-a-run-of-k-successes-in-n-bernoulli-trials-why-use-approximations-when-the-exact-answer-is-known/


And, for lazy people like me, here you can find a calculator:

http://maxgriffin.net/CalcStreaks.shtml


I'm just sharing, because I was asking thiis question myself for a time, and now I found the answer

Martingale can work, it really depends on luck and your bankroll. While what you say is true, the 8 loosing streak can come very fast but to make profit you need to survive longer than 8 losses. I believe there was a player on BitDice some time ago who played martingale on something like 48.5% or something like that. He played for months and won over 100 BTC in the end, i think close to 200.

[maku]

Martingale can work, it really depends on luck and your bankroll. While what you say is true, the 8 loosing streak can come very fast but to make profit you need to survive longer than 8 losses. I believe there was a player on BitDice some time ago who played martingale on something like 48.5% or something like that. He played for months and won over 100 BTC in the end, i think close to 200.

We all know someone who played and won some insane money. The question is: is martingale really that helpful in reaching this goal? And my answer is: not really.
It is as you said yourself - if it depends on luck and bankroll then how much of it is real strategy left?

[edmundduke]

Martingale can work, it really depends on luck and your bankroll. While what you say is true, the 8 loosing streak can come very fast but to make profit you need to survive longer than 8 losses. I believe there was a player on BitDice some time ago who played martingale on something like 48.5% or something like that. He played for months and won over 100 BTC in the end, i think close to 200.

We all know someone who played and won some insane money. The question is: is martingale really that helpful in reaching this goal? And my answer is: not really.
It is as you said yourself - if it depends on luck and bankroll then how much of it is real strategy left?

That can be say'd about the whole gambling scene, especially dice. Like every strategy it works till it no longer does and thats that, not more to say about it to be honest. Martingale also seems to be the favorite of many gamblers, be it regular martingale or a modified version (even reverse martingale)

[erre]

The meaning of doing math is to understand why plain betting is just better than martingale...

[pinoycash]

Do you think this will work, play in 10 different casino and apply the strategy, set a bankroll for each with 20k satoshis and bet the minimum of 1sat.. leave it running for 24 hours. what are the chances that you will still loose in the end,

[marioantonini]

martingale is only a lose of time, because can is good for low bet, like 1-10 satoshi . If i start my betting to 10.000 satoshi with margingale i get have more bitcoin to invest and the bankroll of dice get is very high for accept big bet.
i see to more dice with faucet, more user start martingale from 1 satoshi and the site is more slow for all this bet

[pinoycash]

martingale is only a lose of time, because can is good for low bet, like 1-10 satoshi . If i start my betting to 10.000 satoshi with margingale i get have more bitcoin to invest and the bankroll of dice get is very high for accept big bet.
i see to more dice with faucet, more user start martingale from 1 satoshi and the site is more slow for all this bet

10k starting on this strategy is really high for me, for those with bankrolls this would be feasible

[DarkStar_]

Do you think this will work, play in 10 different casino and apply the strategy, set a bankroll for each with 20k satoshis and bet the minimum of 1sat.. leave it running for 24 hours. what are the chances that you will still loose in the end,

Chances are still very high. Probably better to put all your satoshis in one casino, so you can have a bigger loss streak.

[elm]

You don't have to do the math for gambling as long as the casino has positive house edge, because you'll lose in long run.
Big bankroll, low base bet, luck & strategy can reduce the risks, but i think it can't help much.

Skill-based gambling is place where you can win easily if you really know how to do/speculate

after this posting it would be good to lock the thread because this posting says it all. thank you mate

[erre]

Do you think this will work, play in 10 different casino and apply the strategy, set a bankroll for each with 20k satoshis and bet the minimum of 1sat.. leave it running for 24 hours. what are the chances that you will still loose in the end,

" In the end" , You have 100% losing chanche

[Phildo]

... indeed, with an house edge of 1% and betting 2x, you have 19.33% of chances to encounter an 8 losing streak in your first 100 bets. 1/5, not so hard...

The math behind this is really hard, I struggled a bit to find it out and I definitely can't understand it, but for people who can here's the link:

http://www.askamathematician.com/2010/07/q-whats-the-chance-of-getting-a-run-of-k-successes-in-n-bernoulli-trials-why-use-approximations-when-the-exact-answer-is-known/


And, for lazy people like me, here you can find a calculator:

http://maxgriffin.net/CalcStreaks.shtml


I'm just sharing, because I was asking thiis question myself for a time, and now I found the answer

Martingale can work, it really depends on luck and your bankroll. While what you say is true, the 8 loosing streak can come very fast but to make profit you need to survive longer than 8 losses. I believe there was a player on BitDice some time ago who played martingale on something like 48.5% or something like that. He played for months and won over 100 BTC in the end, i think close to 200.

"martingale can work" but it's incredibly stupid.

Here's a fun math problem to figure out why it's dumb. Calculate the odds of winning, x in a row. Calculate the odds of losing x in a row. They are exactly the same if you are flipping a coin. Now calculate how much you win if you win x in a row, and compare that to how much you lose when you lose x in a row (which has the same odds on flipping a coin, and will actually be easier to do on a dice site with 2x payouts). See how incredibly different those numbers are? Why would anyone think that's a good idea?

[BitMaxz]

martingale works for me but i cant make lots of profit just few cents really dont understand the calculation but
Im always using martingale as my strategy even if i got a small profit i will accept it as my winning profit..
And i use it in other dice site again and try to gain a small profit..

[edmundduke]

... indeed, with an house edge of 1% and betting 2x, you have 19.33% of chances to encounter an 8 losing streak in your first 100 bets. 1/5, not so hard...

The math behind this is really hard, I struggled a bit to find it out and I definitely can't understand it, but for people who can here's the link:

http://www.askamathematician.com/2010/07/q-whats-the-chance-of-getting-a-run-of-k-successes-in-n-bernoulli-trials-why-use-approximations-when-the-exact-answer-is-known/


And, for lazy people like me, here you can find a calculator:

http://maxgriffin.net/CalcStreaks.shtml


I'm just sharing, because I was asking thiis question myself for a time, and now I found the answer

Martingale can work, it really depends on luck and your bankroll. While what you say is true, the 8 loosing streak can come very fast but to make profit you need to survive longer than 8 losses. I believe there was a player on BitDice some time ago who played martingale on something like 48.5% or something like that. He played for months and won over 100 BTC in the end, i think close to 200.

"martingale can work" but it's incredibly stupid.

Here's a fun math problem to figure out why it's dumb. Calculate the odds of winning, x in a row. Calculate the odds of losing x in a row. They are exactly the same if you are flipping a coin. Now calculate how much you win if you win x in a row, and compare that to how much you lose when you lose x in a row (which has the same odds on flipping a coin, and will actually be easier to do on a dice site with 2x payouts). See how incredibly different those numbers are? Why would anyone think that's a good idea?

There is no such thing as a "good idea" in gambling nor a strategy that is proven to work. I just brought out an example of someone who did successfully win using the strategy playing almost all the time over the course of 2 months using autobet. It can work but that does not mean it will.

[Xsinx]

Betting min amount using this strategy with a nice bankroll that can survive 30 straight losses. do that for 1 month straight
Example

1satoshi/second x 60sec = 60sat x 60 Minutes = 3600sat x 24 hours = 86,400sat per day x 30 = 2,592,000 sat

[Superhitech]

Betting min amount using this strategy with a nice bankroll that can survive 30 straight losses. do that for 1 month straight
Example

1satoshi/second x 60sec = 60sat x 60 Minutes = 3600sat x 24 hours = 86,400sat per day x 30 = 2,592,000 sat

2,592,000 satoshis is roughly only $11 USD; your electricity probably costs more than what you will make. Also, you can't count on making 1 satoshi a second, as you might lose a few times. This strategy would work in theory, but it is probably not worth it.

[erre]

Betting min amount using this strategy with a nice bankroll that can survive 30 straight losses. do that for 1 month straight
Example

1satoshi/second x 60sec = 60sat x 60 Minutes = 3600sat x 24 hours = 86,400sat per day x 30 = 2,592,000 sat

That's why I posted the calculator. With an house edge of 1%...

The probability of a streak of at least 30 consecutive successes in 2592000 trials is 0.07%

This very good chance of winning, but you still need roughly 25+ btc bankroll to win 0.0259 btc... it's like plain betting