Losing a martingale is easier than you think

[erre]

I went through the formulas and the approximations given in your link.As the started paragraphs said,its very difficult to determine the winning streaks so whatever answers are derived ,they're on basis of some formulas and approximations.Doesn't necessarily have to be accurate in the gambling case,because the formula assumes find the probability of of a consecutive event at N number of times when the given sample space is "S" which is known.Gambling is quite different,the sample place formerly is not known and there are multiple events .

That's true, but seems like you read only the physicist response.

Here what the mathematician said:
"
Mathematician: Want an exact answer without all the hard work and really nasty formulas? Computers were invented for a reason, people.

We want to compute S(N,K), the probability of getting K or more heads in a row out of N independent coin flips (when there is a probability p of each head occurring and a probability of 1-p of each tail occurring). Let’s consider different ways that we could get K heads in a row. One way to do it would be to have our first K coin flips all be heads, and this occurs with a probability p^{K}. If this does not happen, then at least one tail must occur within the first K coin flips. Let’s suppose that j  is the position of the first tail, and by assumption it satisfies 1 \le j \le K. Then, the probability of having K or more heads in a row in the entire set of coins (given that the first tail occurred at j \le K) is simply the probability of having K or more heads in a row in the set of coins following the jth coin (since there can’t be a streak of K or more heads starting before the jth coin due to j being smaller or equal to K). But this probability of having a streak of K or more after the jth coin is just S(N-j,K). Now, since the probability that our first tail occurs at position j is the chance that we get j-1 heads followed by one tail, so it is p^{j-1} (1-p) . That means that the chance that the first tail occurs on coin j AND there is a streak of K or more heads is given by p^{j-1} (1-p) S(N-j,K). Hence, the probability that the first K coins are all heads, OR coin one is the first tails and the remainder have K or more heads in a row, OR coin two is the first tails and the remainder have K or more heads in a row, OR coin three is the first tails and…, is given by:

S(N,K) = p^{K} + \sum_{j=1,K} p^{j-1} (1-p) S(N-j,K)

Note that what this allows us to do is to compute S(N,K) by knowing the values of S(N-j,K) for  1 \le j \le K. Hence, this is a recursive formula for S(N,K) which relates harder solutions (with larger N values) to easier solutions (with smaller N values). These easier solutions can then be computed using even easier solutions, until we get to S(A,B) for values of A and B so small that we already know the answer (i.e. S(A,B) is very easy to calculate by hand). These are known as our base cases. In particular, we observe that if we have zero coins then there is a zero probability of getting any positive number of heads is zero, so S(0,K) = 0, and the chance of getting more heads than we have coins is zero, so S(N,K) = 0 for K>N.

All of this can be implemented in a few lines of (python) computer code as follows:"


..the second link I provided is based on this code, not on the " physicist answer" .

[erre]

Martingale is fun, yesterday I started with 0.0002 at PD, got it up to 0.1, was about to deposit but then a couple of secs later I was at almost 0 balance
Keep in mind that this took a long time, with not a very big bet amount, I lost like 7 times in a row or something.

Could you please share your martingale setting and how long you made that 0.1 just from 0.0002? It is too good to be true, but nothing impossible when you have a great luck.

Whatever strategy he used, he had less than 1/500 chances of getting this goal

[Bugf1x]

Martingale is fun, yesterday I started with 0.0002 at PD, got it up to 0.1, was about to deposit but then a couple of secs later I was at almost 0 balance
Keep in mind that this took a long time, with not a very big bet amount, I lost like 7 times in a row or something.

Could you please share your martingale setting and how long you made that 0.1 just from 0.0002? It is too good to be true, but nothing impossible when you have a great luck.

Woops, I meant 0.002, I edited the post to fix that. I don't really have a special setting I used all the time, I increased the bet as time was going by and I was earning more and more. Then when I was about to celebrate my win, I lost it all. I see how lucky I was, because I can't seem to pull it off again, tried it a couple of times now.

https://i.imgur.com/NuK7IRz.png Seems like my luck has depleted.

[Temo58]

Martingale is fun, yesterday I started with 0.0002 at PD, got it up to 0.1, was about to deposit but then a couple of secs later I was at almost 0 balance
Keep in mind that this took a long time, with not a very big bet amount, I lost like 7 times in a row or something.

Could you please share your martingale setting and how long you made that 0.1 just from 0.0002? It is too good to be true, but nothing impossible when you have a great luck.

Woops, I meant 0.002, I edited the post to fix that. I don't really have a special setting I used all the time, I increased the bet as time was going by and I was earning more and more. Then when I was about to celebrate my win, I lost it all. I see how lucky I was, because I can't seem to pull it off again, tried it a couple of times now.

https://i.imgur.com/NuK7IRz.png Seems like my luck has depleted.

you win x50 of your deposit and do not withdraw it.

"Martingale is fun, yesterday I started with 0.0002 at PD, got it up to 0.1 "

People are always greedy

[Bugf1x]

Martingale is fun, yesterday I started with 0.0002 at PD, got it up to 0.1, was about to deposit but then a couple of secs later I was at almost 0 balance
Keep in mind that this took a long time, with not a very big bet amount, I lost like 7 times in a row or something.

Could you please share your martingale setting and how long you made that 0.1 just from 0.0002? It is too good to be true, but nothing impossible when you have a great luck.

Woops, I meant 0.002, I edited the post to fix that. I don't really have a special setting I used all the time, I increased the bet as time was going by and I was earning more and more. Then when I was about to celebrate my win, I lost it all. I see how lucky I was, because I can't seem to pull it off again, tried it a couple of times now.

https://i.imgur.com/NuK7IRz.png Seems like my luck has depleted.

you win x50 of your deposit and do not withdraw it.

"Martingale is fun, yesterday I started with 0.0002 at PD, got it up to 0.1 "

People are always greedy

Yeah I know, I should've withdrawn it. Well I learnt from it.

https://snapr.pw/i/466209017c.png I think I should stop betting now.

[treeguard]

loosing with a strategy called martingale is really easy on dice games therefore i never use it to play any games that involve money with it, hopefully no one will choose to use it too much