Double Top Trend Reversal

[Enjorlas]

The double top is a frequent price formation at the end of a bull market. It appears as two consecutive peaks of approximately the same price on a price-versus-time chart of a market. The two peaks are separated by a minimum in price, a valley. The price level of this minimum is called the neck line of the formation.

This is what we have right now.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=USD&view=1Y

[r0ach]

This isn't biotech stocks.  Bitcoin is a safe haven for capital when legacy financial systems implode, and the halving occurs in 186 days as well.  When big financial firms are on mainstream news saying the stock market is about to crash by 75%, would you rather have your money sitting in a bank instead of bitcoin when it happens?  I suppose you could stay in cash and buy stocks on the dip, unless the crash is big enough for them to Gox your money.  On the other hand, Bitcoin will be going up on the stock crash, so you don't even have to bother buying the dip.  Shorting stocks with QEs dropped from the sky at random is also ridiculous unless you're an insider.

Unless you're some crazy gambler that wants to attempt to predict the oil bottom and go margin long, Bitcoin isn't that bad of an alternative.  21,000,000 ounces of gold were mined by gold miners last year.  That's 21 billion dollars in gold inflation, three times Bitcoin's market cap of gold inflation in one year.

[MF Doom]

btc doesnt seem to have any sort of price trend, it goes up when china does something like devalue their currency, or when the greek debt crisis was ongoing.  any double top could be reversed if some more economic uncertainty news starts being put out there. 

[uki]

The double top is a frequent price formation at the end of a bull market. It appears as two consecutive peaks of approximately the same price on a price-versus-time chart of a market. The two peaks are separated by a minimum in price, a valley. The price level of this minimum is called the neck line of the formation.

This is what we have right now.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=USD&view=1Y

I would be very careful with such an early call. For now what we clearly see on the picture you attached (and even better if you zoom out to 3 year perspective) is that we just reversed the 18-month long bear trend. From more or less summer 2015 we started to recover from that bear, but that doesn't mean that we will be growing infinitely long. There will be corrections on the way - that is something normal, yet it won't mean immediately another trend reversal. Unless we speak about extremely short time perspective, the trend is up for now. Double top formation you mention may start a correction, but the depth of this correction will show where we are.

[Enjorlas]

The double top is a frequent price formation at the end of a bull market. It appears as two consecutive peaks of approximately the same price on a price-versus-time chart of a market. The two peaks are separated by a minimum in price, a valley. The price level of this minimum is called the neck line of the formation.

This is what we have right now.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=USD&view=1Y

I would be very careful with such an early call. For now what we clearly see on the picture you attached (and even better if you zoom out to 3 year perspective) is that we just reversed the 18-month long bear trend. From more or less summer 2015 we started to recover from that bear, but that doesn't mean that we will be growing infinitely long. There will be corrections on the way - that is something normal, yet it won't mean immediately another trend reversal. Unless we speak about extremely short time perspective, the trend is up for now. Double top formation you mention may start a correction, but the depth of this correction will show where we are.

In my amateur opinion, I do believe we are having a trend reversal over the next few months based on the double top I presented and the google trends chart:

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin

But in the months leading up to the halving, we are definitely in for a new all time high bubble.

[uki]

In my amateur opinion, I do believe we are having a trend reversal over the next few months based on the double top I presented and the google trends chart:

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin

But in the months leading up to the halving, we are definitely in for a new all time high bubble.

I also don't agree that we will see the next ath just due to the halving. Halving alone would be not enough to get us to $1k, let alone Willy's finest mark. We would need something extra that will bring again a positive light to Bitcoin in the mainstream media. Something that influences adoption and deployment. I don't see it for now, thus my scepticism whether we at all get beyond $600. At the same I don't think there is a lot of room below our current levels. Support zone between $350 and $400 looks pretty solid and therefore I would expect more sideways trend towards the halving.

[Odalv]

It is far from Top. Top will be above $3,000

[uki]

It is far from Top. Top will be above $3,000

Maybe, the question is when? In 2021, or earlier?
I don't think we see $3k in 2016, at least not for what we know today.

[spiderbrain]

This isn't biotech stocks.  Bitcoin is a safe haven for capital when legacy financial systems implode, and the halving occurs in 186 days as well.  When big financial firms are on mainstream news saying the stock market is about to crash by 75%, would you rather have your money sitting in a bank instead of bitcoin when it happens?  I suppose you could stay in cash and buy stocks on the dip, unless the crash is big enough for them to Gox your money.  On the other hand, Bitcoin will be going up on the stock crash, so you don't even have to bother buying the dip.  Shorting stocks with QEs dropped from the sky at random is also ridiculous unless you're an insider.

Unless you're some crazy gambler that wants to attempt to predict the oil bottom and go margin long, Bitcoin isn't that bad of an alternative.  21,000,000 ounces of gold were mined by gold miners last year.  That's 21 billion dollars in gold inflation, three times Bitcoin's market cap of gold inflation in one year.

hallelujah!

[K128kevin2]

It is far from Top. Top will be above $3,000

Maybe, the question is when? In 2021, or earlier?
I don't think we see $3k in 2016, at least not for what we know today.

Why do we think the price will ever be that high? I think it's possible for bitcoin to become widely used without the price skyrocketing again. In fact, I think the price skyrocketing like that would be bad for bitcoin adoption. People want a currency whose value is stable.

[Odalv]

It is far from Top. Top will be above $3,000

Maybe, the question is when? In 2021, or earlier?
I don't think we see $3k in 2016, at least not for what we know today.

Why do we think the price will ever be that high? I think it's possible for bitcoin to become widely used without the price skyrocketing again. In fact, I think the price skyrocketing like that would be bad for bitcoin adoption. People want a currency whose value is stable.

Do not worry, Bitcoin will be stable at $50,000. :-), but not sooner :-(

[DrLove2048]

I don't think bitcoin follows technical trends as close to regular stock market action as people want to think. Plus it seems that there is always some type of trend that indicates a collapse.

[Pab]

The double top is a frequent price formation at the end of a bull market. It appears as two consecutive peaks of approximately the same price on a price-versus-time chart of a market. The two peaks are separated by a minimum in price, a valley. The price level of this minimum is called the neck line of the formation.

This is what we have right now.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=USD&view=1Y

Double top yes,but last high was 520$,now btc consolidate before next attack on 520$
it will come

[talks_cheep]

Double top trend reversal or Not, we are going to go down hard. I expect sub-400 in the next few days. Short it, short it, short it!!!

[r0ach]

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin

It says partial data for January and it's about the same as December already while being only January 13th...

[NorrisK]

Double top trend reversal or Not, we are going to go down hard. I expect sub-400 in the next few days. Short it, short it, short it!!!

This type of speculation is what causes the massive fluctuation in bitcoin in the first place.

Not that it is that bad for it to drop a bit for now, I would like to buy some more fractions in two weeks so sub 400 sounds about right for then.

Bull trend does not look like it has ended by far though.

If you see these peaks as double top trend reversal, than we would've had the same in the beginning of the graph, but instead of going further down, it actually went up.

[Amph]

nah, it happened before, there was a double top to 480, but we did not fal, to sub 400 anyway, as i see it this is the same kind of movement that took palce in the sub 300 zone

so the same thing will happen eventually, remember that the diff is still increase this mean that miner would not take profit anymore if we reutrn to 200, let alone with the halving coming

so there is no way to see sub 300 again

[uki]

It is far from Top. Top will be above $3,000

Maybe, the question is when? In 2021, or earlier?
I don't think we see $3k in 2016, at least not for what we know today.

Why do we think the price will ever be that high? I think it's possible for bitcoin to become widely used without the price skyrocketing again. In fact, I think the price skyrocketing like that would be bad for bitcoin adoption. People want a currency whose value is stable.

Bitcoin has 8 decimal places, so theoretically there is room for having the unit with huge value and then count in mBTC or even uBTC. That is  of course not that convenient for an average Joe, but still doable. That wouldn't be the first case in the history either, already in the Ancient Rome there were coins of different, sometimes very different, values.

[btcxyzzz]

TA is nice but not much applicable to erratic price movement of Bitcoin. What we have here are bad fundamentals. Bitcoin is not ready for mainstream, big-time adoption until scalability is resolved. I expect 350-400 range soon.

[amacar2]

Bitcoin is still undervalued and if the price remain same till the upcoming block reward halving than it price will be more below than what it should be. So bitcoin price is not in top as price is not even near to ath 1k.