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Author Topic: When (at which price) will BTC miners have to dump BTC to cover the costs?  (Read 1026 times)
Puhi
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January 16, 2016, 01:12:39 PM
 #1

Miners were happy with high price of BTC.
With lover price the problems of paying for power becomes a problem.

What are the prices of BTC where their problems of paying the power bills begin?
Is my statement even true?
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January 16, 2016, 01:40:25 PM
 #2

Depends on efficiency and power cost.

Play with my calculator: https://cryptominer.ca/bitcoin-mining-calculator and you'll be able to see when power cost is greater than revenue. Please note that default parameters are in CAD and not in USD.

We can see that for a S7 owner paying 52 USD / kWm will have to power off is miner if the Bitcoin price drop to 105 USD.
A S5 owner (.51 J / GH) will turn it off at 200 USD.
A S3 owner (.78 J / GH) will turn it off at 305 USD.

You can also compute it analytically instead of going through trial/error.
Just solve the inequation:

(Btc price) * (BTC/TH/mthly rate) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency)
(Btc price) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency) / (BTC/TH/mthly rate)

The current BTC/TH/mthly rate is .1331. Then
(Btc price) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency) / .1331

If we input the kWm cost of 52 USD and  hardware efficiency of .78 to verify our previous S3 profitability calculation
(Btc price) > 52 * .78 / .1331
--> 304.73 USD



http://www.cryptominer.ca - Bitcoin Miner Hosting Solutions
Puhi
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January 16, 2016, 03:12:25 PM
 #3

Depends on efficiency and power cost.

Play with my calculator: https://cryptominer.ca/bitcoin-mining-calculator and you'll be able to see when power cost is greater than revenue. Please note that default parameters are in CAD and not in USD.

We can see that for a S7 owner paying 52 USD / kWm will have to power off is miner if the Bitcoin price drop to 105 USD.
A S5 owner (.51 J / GH) will turn it off at 200 USD.
A S3 owner (.78 J / GH) will turn it off at 305 USD.

You can also compute it analytically instead of going through trial/error.
Just solve the inequation:

(Btc price) * (BTC/TH/mthly rate) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency)
(Btc price) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency) / (BTC/TH/mthly rate)

The current BTC/TH/mthly rate is .1331. Then
(Btc price) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency) / .1331

If we input the kWm cost of 52 USD and  hardware efficiency of .78 to verify our previous S3 profitability calculation
(Btc price) > 52 * .78 / .1331
--> 304.73 USD

Great! Thank you
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January 17, 2016, 08:00:34 AM
 #4

for s7 is below 75$ per coin, if diff remain unchanged

easy math, 1 consume $45 a month to generate 0.6 btc a months, those 0.6 have a value of around $225, if that value is halved, they have still profit

to generate 1 btc a antminer s7 need $75 a month(0.6:$45=1.00:X => X=1.00/0.6 x $45=>$75)
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January 17, 2016, 01:21:35 PM
 #5

I use bitcoinwisdom  current diff 113

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

at 3 cent power the s-7 is a loser at the price of  41 usd a coin

at 4 cent  power the s-7 is a loser at the price of 55 usd a coin

at 5 cent power the s-7 is a loser at the price of  68 usd a coin

at 6 cent power the s-7 is a loser at the price  of  82 usd a coin

at 7 cent power the s-7 is a loser at the price of   96 usd a coin

at 8 cent power the s-7 is a loser at the price of  110 usd a coin

at 9 cent power the s-7 is a loser at the price of   124 usd a coin

at 10 cent power the s-7 is a loser at the price of 137 usd a coin

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 17, 2016, 01:30:36 PM
 #6

Depends on efficiency and power cost.

Play with my calculator: https://cryptominer.ca/bitcoin-mining-calculator and you'll be able to see when power cost is greater than revenue. Please note that default parameters are in CAD and not in USD.

We can see that for a S7 owner paying 52 USD / kWm will have to power off is miner if the Bitcoin price drop to 105 USD.
A S5 owner (.51 J / GH) will turn it off at 200 USD.
A S3 owner (.78 J / GH) will turn it off at 305 USD.

You can also compute it analytically instead of going through trial/error.
Just solve the inequation:

(Btc price) * (BTC/TH/mthly rate) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency)
(Btc price) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency) / (BTC/TH/mthly rate)

The current BTC/TH/mthly rate is .1331. Then
(Btc price) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency) / .1331

If we input the kWm cost of 52 USD and  hardware efficiency of .78 to verify our previous S3 profitability calculation
(Btc price) > 52 * .78 / .1331
--> 304.73 USD


Thanks for this awesome answer! That means that if the price reaches something like 320/350 dollars, the price will have to rise again.

Or miners will dump coins and btc will fall again and it will mean the end of btc... Which is still higly unlikely to happen!

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January 17, 2016, 01:59:05 PM
 #7

Depends on efficiency and power cost.

Play with my calculator: https://cryptominer.ca/bitcoin-mining-calculator and you'll be able to see when power cost is greater than revenue. Please note that default parameters are in CAD and not in USD.

We can see that for a S7 owner paying 52 USD / kWm will have to power off is miner if the Bitcoin price drop to 105 USD.
A S5 owner (.51 J / GH) will turn it off at 200 USD.
A S3 owner (.78 J / GH) will turn it off at 305 USD.

You can also compute it analytically instead of going through trial/error.
Just solve the inequation:

(Btc price) * (BTC/TH/mthly rate) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency)
(Btc price) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency) / (BTC/TH/mthly rate)

The current BTC/TH/mthly rate is .1331. Then
(Btc price) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency) / .1331

If we input the kWm cost of 52 USD and  hardware efficiency of .78 to verify our previous S3 profitability calculation
(Btc price) > 52 * .78 / .1331
--> 304.73 USD


Thanks for this awesome answer! That means that if the price reaches something like 320/350 dollars, the price will have to rise again.

Or miners will dump coins and btc will fall again and it will mean the end of btc... Which is still higly unlikely to happen!

No  because the discussion  has no mention of positive difficulty and or  negative difficulty  adjustments.

look at the negative adjustments




Difficulty History

Date                          Difficulty         Change   Hash Rate
Jan 13 2016-----113,354,299,801------9.12%-----811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015-----103,880,340,815-----11.16%----743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180           5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450     2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480           0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039          2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234          4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455         4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328         2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409         0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846         2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303         3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s

Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931     -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s ---- negative   1

Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355    4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s

May 31 2015   47,589,591,154         -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s---- negative   2

May 17 2015   48,807,487,245         2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018     0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s

Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513        -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s---- negative 3

Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688     5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s

Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645       -1.50%    334,417,246 GH/s---- negative 4

Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951       1.59%      339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317        5.01%      334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962        7.71%           318,224,263 GH/s

Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895     -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s ---- negative 5 on my birthday and a nice big drop

Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056         8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017     3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s

Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307        -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s---- negative 6
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271     -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s---- negative 7 back to back

Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328        1.76%     288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252       10.05%    283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265       2.81%      257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026      0.98%           250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924      16.20%           248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124    8.75%          213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902     15.03%           196,341,788 GH/s

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 17, 2016, 04:44:05 PM
 #8

No  because the discussion  has no mention of positive difficulty and or  negative difficulty  adjustments.

look at the negative adjustments




Difficulty History

Date                          Difficulty         Change   Hash Rate
Jan 13 2016-----113,354,299,801------9.12%-----811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015-----103,880,340,815-----11.16%----743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180           5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450     2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480           0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039          2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234          4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455         4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328         2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409         0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846         2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303         3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s

Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931     -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s ---- negative   1

Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355    4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s

May 31 2015   47,589,591,154         -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s---- negative   2

May 17 2015   48,807,487,245         2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018     0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s

Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513        -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s---- negative 3

Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688     5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s

Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645       -1.50%    334,417,246 GH/s---- negative 4

Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951       1.59%      339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317        5.01%      334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962        7.71%           318,224,263 GH/s

Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895     -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s ---- negative 5 on my birthday and a nice big drop

Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056         8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017     3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s

Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307        -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s---- negative 6
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271     -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s---- negative 7 back to back

Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328        1.76%     288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252       10.05%    283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265       2.81%      257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026      0.98%           250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924      16.20%           248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124    8.75%          213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902     15.03%           196,341,788 GH/s

I don't really understand what you're talking about. Is the difficulty adjusting itself with the lowering price? If yes, why does it do this? I thought difficulty could only go up!

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January 17, 2016, 06:57:29 PM
 #9

No  because the discussion  has no mention of positive difficulty and or  negative difficulty  adjustments.

look at the negative adjustments




Difficulty History

Date                          Difficulty         Change   Hash Rate
Jan 13 2016-----113,354,299,801------9.12%-----811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015-----103,880,340,815-----11.16%----743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180           5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450     2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480           0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039          2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234          4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455         4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328         2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409         0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846         2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303         3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s

Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931     -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s ---- negative   1

Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355    4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s

May 31 2015   47,589,591,154         -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s---- negative   2

May 17 2015   48,807,487,245         2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018     0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s

Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513        -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s---- negative 3

Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688     5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s

Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645       -1.50%    334,417,246 GH/s---- negative 4

Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951       1.59%      339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317        5.01%      334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962        7.71%           318,224,263 GH/s

Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895     -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s ---- negative 5 on my birthday and a nice big drop

Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056         8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017     3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s

Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307        -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s---- negative 6
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271     -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s---- negative 7 back to back

Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328        1.76%     288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252       10.05%    283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265       2.81%      257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026      0.98%           250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924      16.20%           248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124    8.75%          213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902     15.03%           196,341,788 GH/s

I don't really understand what you're talking about. Is the difficulty adjusting itself with the lowering price? If yes, why does it do this? I thought difficulty could only go up!

Dificulty adjusting itself does not cause lowering of price (or at least should not).  I think current one is due to Cryptsy which is a big story, and also the dev that left and made it such a big exit.   

Those two stories combined and sharing headlines at same time on many BTC news sites is a  bad deal.  The good thing is difficulty seems to be slowing down some... so we can hoe it continues again this week.
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January 18, 2016, 01:52:19 AM
 #10

Depends on efficiency and power cost.

Play with my calculator: https://cryptominer.ca/bitcoin-mining-calculator and you'll be able to see when power cost is greater than revenue. Please note that default parameters are in CAD and not in USD.

We can see that for a S7 owner paying 52 USD / kWm will have to power off is miner if the Bitcoin price drop to 105 USD.
A S5 owner (.51 J / GH) will turn it off at 200 USD.
A S3 owner (.78 J / GH) will turn it off at 305 USD.

You can also compute it analytically instead of going through trial/error.
Just solve the inequation:

(Btc price) * (BTC/TH/mthly rate) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency)
(Btc price) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency) / (BTC/TH/mthly rate)

The current BTC/TH/mthly rate is .1331. Then
(Btc price) > (kWm cost) * (Hardware efficiency) / .1331

If we input the kWm cost of 52 USD and  hardware efficiency of .78 to verify our previous S3 profitability calculation
(Btc price) > 52 * .78 / .1331
--> 304.73 USD




This calculator is nice because it takes the halving into effect, the one on Bitcoinwisdom doesn't.

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January 19, 2016, 05:43:58 AM
 #11

Difficulty adjusts to the time it took to solve X number of blocks.
It AIMS to keep the block solved time at a fixed point (on average over X blocks).

 Difficulty adjustment has ZERO to do with the price of Bitcoin.

 Bitcoin price MIGHT take some notice of difficulty, but it's still not a direct relationship and only one MINOR factor in Bitcoin pricing.

 Bitcoin price CAN indirectly affect difficulty, if it drops enough some miners will turn off their hardware dropping the hashrate and eventually causing the difficulty to get a little easier.



 BitCoinWisdom CAN take halfing into account, you just have to do it manually.

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