Hard fork and price - beside the panic

[zby]

What are your theories about the price of BTC if a hard fork happens?

Sure there would be a drop in price because of the uncertainity - but what next? The situation will be very interesting.

I am sure that it will happen at some point. It looks like it might happen soon (http://bitcoinist.net/f2pool-statement-indicates-plan-to-hard-fork-2mb-bitcoin-block-size/) - but if not this time - there will be other occasions. Some will be not be even noticed by the general public - if a few miners start mining incompatible blocks - then their branches would soon be very short, nobody would accept their block rewards and they would lose incentives to maintain them.

But lets assume that there is a real fork - that is there are two parts of the community and each one does not want to fade away quickly.


There will be three groups of BTC then:

- those that don't have any input from any of the incompatible blocks - they owners would be able to spend them on either branch

- two groups of BTC that have inputs from one of the forks

It will be possible that there will be miners that try to mine blocks that are compatible with both forks - so the first group would not be only historical bitcoins - but it might also contain new bitcoins and newly transfered bitcoins. But it is also possible that the forks would make this not possible by special marking of their blocks and only accepting historical blocks and blocks marked specially - I guess this would require a very complex coordination.

Obviously the first group should trade higher than any of the other groups.

The most interesting question is what would the exchanges do.

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[Karartma1]

It will be a huge fricking mess. The market will react badly because the only thing markets want is stability: this situation could be pure destruction or a new beginning.
After Mike's revelation an hard fork now will bring BTC to the floor simply because the market will not understand it. But there can be a recovery only at a price of even more centralization which is something will bring more panic in the community.

To me, this whole thing is just a big mess.

[hf100]

The exchanges will be the most important factor if a hard fork happens because they decide which fork you can sell coins from. There are small exchanges that might be struggling to sty afloat and take advantage by selling the same coins on both forks. The big exchanges could push people into accepting one fork if they support it. The whole thing will be a nightmare clusterfuck if it happens.

[zby]

It will be a huge fricking mess. The market will react badly because the only thing markets want is stability: this situation could be pure destruction or a new beginning.
After Mike's revelation an hard fork now will bring BTC to the floor simply because the market will not understand it. But there can be a recovery only at a price of even more centralization which is something will bring more panic in the community.

To me, this whole thing is just a big mess.

I don't think it would be that bad. It should work just like it works now with normal chain forks - after some time one of them just dies. If one of the forks is less popular it will die quickly - those who invested in coins mined in it will lose - but all the old coins will do just fine, and by definition there will not be that much of those new coins. Then at another fork - we'll know how to behave.

[Amph]

as i see it , this how it work, everytime for all these changes and possible fear about the bitcoin value

after the thing happen usually people dump and instigate a panic sell , around 20-30% of the value will fall, then there is a stop of that fake dump, as a result the price initiate to slowly recover

we have seen this thing many times, already, to not think what the outcome will be for the future of bitcoin and all the changes related to it, that may possibly happen

[zby]

as i see it , this how it work, everytime for all these changes and possible fear about the bitcoin value

after the thing happen usually people dump and instigate a panic sell , around 20-30% of the value will fall, then there is a stop of that fake dump, as a result the price initiate to slowly recover

we have seen this thing many times, already, to not think what the outcome will be for the future of bitcoin and all the changes related to it, that may possibly happen

Hard fork will be worse than the crises so far - because those who will buy coins from one of the forks will eventually lose their money. But yeah - after some turmoil the market will adopt - and next time a similar event happens it will be 'just normal operation'.

The interesting question is how that adaptation will happen.

[NorrisK]

I think the hard fork will not bring too much problems as the current mess is the result of NOT having a solid forking plan yet.

People are waiting for a solution, even if that means hard forking.

[Snail2]

There are no issues with a well planned hard fork what is accepted and approved by miners and users as well. That would even increase confidence in bitcoin. On the contrary such ninja fork attempts what Gavin trying to do again, will surely destroy confidence for a long time.

[g-unit]

I think the hard fork will not bring too much problems as the current mess is the result of NOT having a solid forking plan yet.

People are waiting for a solution, even if that means hard forking.

Exactly. If nothing is done, and transaction volume gets too high, and the network starts dropping transactions, THEN people will really panic and lose faith. An increase in block size is inevitable if bitcoin is to continue to grow. Most know this. I saw somewhere that 72% of the 75% required for bitcoin classic (2MB blocks) are on board already.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think there absolutely will be a hard fork, the question is when & in which form.

I'm hoping Core activate SegWit & we then later, only when necessary upgrade to 4MB blocks.   

[infofront]

Price will crash - creating a huge buying opportunity. Price will spike as halving approaches.

[solid12345]

Hard fork will be worse than the crises so far - because those who will buy coins from one of the forks will eventually lose their money. But yeah - after some turmoil the market will adopt - and next time a similar event happens it will be 'just normal operation'.

The interesting question is how that adaptation will happen.

I see this as a BIG problem for cryptocurrencies. It's hard enough to get most people to upgrade their operating system once every decade, how do we expect them to know how to and maintain and update a Bitcoin wallet with money inside?

This is one reason I never see banks going away, joe public just doesn't trust holding their own money.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Certainly there will be volatility and probably a buying opportunity. If a hard fork looks imminent it would be a good idea to get your bitcoin out of online wallets so you have control of your private keys. Use a hardware wallet like Trezor, Ledger or KeepKey.

[Lucius]

Hard fork will be worse than the crises so far - because those who will buy coins from one of the forks will eventually lose their money. But yeah - after some turmoil the market will adopt - and next time a similar event happens it will be 'just normal operation'.

The interesting question is how that adaptation will happen.

I see this as a BIG problem for cryptocurrencies. It's hard enough to get most people to upgrade their operating system once every decade, how do we expect them to know how to and maintain and update a Bitcoin wallet with money inside?

This is one reason I never see banks going away, joe public just doesn't trust holding their own money.

I agree with you that it will be a big problem for the average user.Most people find it hard to understand what hard fork is about and how it will affect on them.

[maokoto]

A hard fork will indicate a high degree of disagreement among Bitcoin users, and for a currency to succeed, it is key that it is accepted by as much people as possible. Division in order to "win" and make the others accept your fork is going nowhere. If you divide once, you could divide twice or more, being accepted by less and less people each time.

[HydroThunder]

Awfully convenient all this news (drama, whatever you want to call it)  happening at the same time and right before the halving. Almost like getting a perfect 0 on the SAT.

[afbitcoins]

Seems to me the number of transactions will grind to a standstill as no-one wants to accidentally end up on the losing fork.

Does anyone know why there is this sudden panic to up the block size? Are the blocks nearly full just now? I just don't see whats the panic, it is easy to increase to some new arbitrary level when needs to be done, so why do it early before its needed. It will just make blockchain grow bigger quicker before its needed.

I admit not knowing all the details but my gut tells me that the core devs are doing fine and no need for these 'hostile' fork takeovers

[bitebits]

A hard fork will indicate a high degree of disagreement among Bitcoin users, and for a currency to succeed, it is key that it is accepted by as much people as possible.

FTFY

[rocks]

It will be a huge fricking mess. The market will react badly because the only thing markets want is stability: this situation could be pure destruction or a new beginning.
After Mike's revelation an hard fork now will bring BTC to the floor simply because the market will not understand it. But there can be a recovery only at a price of even more centralization which is something will bring more panic in the community.

To me, this whole thing is just a big mess.

The price will respond positively because the market wants stability. 1MB blocks is an unstable system because no one knows if they will be able to continue using bitcoin or not, and because the economics are completely changed.

The hard fork maintains the current economics and shows users will continue to scale bitcoin as needed. That lowers risk.

[Karartma1]

It will be a huge fricking mess. The market will react badly because the only thing markets want is stability: this situation could be pure destruction or a new beginning.
After Mike's revelation an hard fork now will bring BTC to the floor simply because the market will not understand it. But there can be a recovery only at a price of even more centralization which is something will bring more panic in the community.

To me, this whole thing is just a big mess.

The price will respond positively because the market wants stability. 1MB blocks is an unstable system because no one knows if they will be able to continue using bitcoin or not, and because the economics are completely changed.

At least at the beginning it will bring confusion and fear in the markets because we can't precisely foresee the outcome.

The hard fork maintains the current economics and shows users will continue to scale bitcoin as needed. That lowers risk.

I'm not so sure, it depends on how it's done.