Not based on theymos's
definition of consensus. There is too large of a number of
individuals who can
veto any given proposal.
Additionally, a large number of the individuals with veto power (under theymos's definition) are on blockstream's payroll, who have a strong economic incentive to not allow the maximum block size to increase.
Both of the above means that in order for the max block size to be increased, there will most likely need to be an economic consensus. XT had probably had close to an economic consensus, however many bitcoin related companies that publicly supported XT were DDoS'ed, intimidating others from voicing their support, and mining pools who even allowed miners to show their support for XT were similarly DDoS'ed, making it difficult for anyone to show their support of XT. (also remember when someone sold 20,000
BTC on bitfinex within minutes/hours after the first block was found that "voted" for XT).
Bitcoin Classic has a similar amount of support among major economic bitcoin related companies, and the majority of mining pools have shown their support (based on hashrate). I would say that Bitcoin Classic (or one of it's successors) has a fairly decent chance of being implemented. I would also say that Hern's exit will wake up a decent number of people who will understand the need to have the maximum block size increased.
