:

[hugolp]

There has been some controversy about your predictions, but I, for one, apreciate them.

Thx.

Predictions are often controversial.

I dont really believe in the statistical methods, but I too apreciate your threads. They are fun to read. Its all good speculation, and sometimes you can find interesting correlations.

Btw, I think you have a very difficult task because in general you are trying to predict future behaviour with the experience of past behaviour, but since Bitcoin is so new and growing so fast the patterns can change quickly and radically.

[mike678]

So what's your guess now? I'm 100% certain it wont be 2.38 mill next difficulty change.

[skyhigh]

my next two re-targets

1758900  followed by
1706000 - 1746000

Because of a massive selling and price dropping below $6 miners started leaving or are being replaced by less and less new miners. If the price will stay above $10 difficulty will most likely stabilize around 1.7mill to 1.8mill for the next few re-targets, but I think its very unlikely that price would stop being so volatile all of a sudden. If price would drop below $9.00 I expect network to keep losing 3% to 5% miners which would result in difficulty dropping at that same pace. If we get a price to rally above $16 I'm expecting 3% to 6% increase in difficulty.