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chodpaba
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June 08, 2011, 05:21:52 AM
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TraderTimm
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June 08, 2011, 05:23:24 AM
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I appreciate your forecasts. Keep up the good work!

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
gshit
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June 08, 2011, 05:28:00 AM
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Thanks, hopefully it's accurate.

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Litt
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June 08, 2011, 10:19:39 AM
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mining is over  Cry
Findeton
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June 08, 2011, 10:45:00 AM
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mining is over  Cry

Mining 10000 btc is over with the actual $/btc rate. Mining, however, is not over AT ALL.

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miningnew
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June 13, 2011, 03:01:12 PM
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Oh damn.
If the next dificult is really 847013 i'll send my rig back :S

miningnew
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June 13, 2011, 03:14:13 PM
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Hm i dont have that much moneey the rig was about 740 Eur for 1 5870 and two 5850.
I thinck i would make about 1 Ghash.
The only thing i want that it pays fot itself  and later keeps above the power price0.28 per kwh ( 20 er cent)

Goldenmaw
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June 13, 2011, 03:23:12 PM
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Hmmmn.  To come about, those numbers would have to be met by a surge in ATI card production (surely they know us and what we want by now), coupled with a constant and steady rise in the value of the BTC, but as no one can really predict either of those things, it's nice to have a worst case scenario charted out.  Thanks.
jhansen858
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June 13, 2011, 04:21:54 PM
 #9

When the difficulty gets to 2Million mark price for BTC will have to be $120 / coin to maintain mining profitibility..

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TraderTimm
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June 13, 2011, 04:36:44 PM
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When the difficulty gets to 2Million mark price for BTC will have to be $120 / coin to maintain mining profitibility..

Actually, it will only have to be enough to offset electricity - as most miners in this stage of the game have already paid off their rigs. And in some cases, some don't even have to worry about that! I think your statement may be more true for someone just purchasing a $1,000 rig, given the reduction in payout. Otherwise, its pretty much full profit for the early-adopting miners.

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SgtSpike
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June 13, 2011, 04:43:16 PM
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Even at 2.85M difficulty level, bitcoins only need to be worth about $8.5/ea for it to remain profitable for me to mine.
nathanrees19
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June 13, 2011, 04:54:51 PM
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When the difficulty gets to 2Million mark price for BTC will have to be $120 / coin to maintain mining profitibility..

To remain profitable, it just has to be high enough to exceed electricity and depreciation. Right now, that is ~$6 for me. At 2 million it will be only ~$20. In other words, the difficulty/price ratio must be below 100000. Anyone with cheaper electricity than me (a lot of people), or a more efficient setup (more than one graphics card, not an overclocked quad core CPU) can profit on even less.
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June 13, 2011, 06:57:30 PM
 #13

When the difficulty gets to 2Million mark price for BTC will have to be $120 / coin to maintain mining profitibility..

Take a look at what it cost to build your rig, in Bitcoin, at the time you purchased the parts vs. how many Bitcoin it has actually delivered for you. Then figure out if you actually ended up with more Bitcoin than you could have purchased on an exchange at that time...

You may be surprised!

You make it seem like purchasing BTC on the exchange is easy. It's been a whole week now, and I still haven't successfully transferred any $$$ into a exchange.

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SgtSpike
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June 13, 2011, 08:04:08 PM
 #14

When the difficulty gets to 2Million mark price for BTC will have to be $120 / coin to maintain mining profitibility..

Wouldn't that be dandy?

Only, $120 at Difficulty 2,000,000 is completely meaningless as a data point of itself. Mining may be profitable at that point, but a mining operation is something that happens over an extended period of time through many levels of Difficulty and price points.

I think that many miners are making a fundamental mistake by valuing the profitability of their operations in terms of Dollars. If you believe that the value of Bitcoin will increase over time and that the value of the Dollar will decrease over time it is completely irrational for the cost basis of your accounting to be in Dollars. Sure, a mining operation may be able to net you some Dollars, but unless you are able to demonstrate that it will net you more Bitcoins than some other method (like buying Bitcoin on an exchange) the cost of that lost opportunity means that you lose Bitcoins. Take a look at what it cost to build your rig, in Bitcoin, at the time you purchased the parts vs. how many Bitcoin it has actually delivered for you. Then figure out if you actually ended up with more Bitcoin than you could have purchased on an exchange at that time...

You may be surprised!
If I had invested the $1100 I did directly into bitcoins instead of mining equipment, I would have had over $20k in bitcoins now.  Unfortunately, I did not.  But I did not for good reason - that $1100 was an investment I could not afford to lose.  By "investing" it into mining equipment, I hedged the risk to a reasonable degree (since I could resell the equipment I bought for 90% of what I paid for it, easily), and thus was able to make the investment.  If I had only been able to invest in coins themselves, it would have been something along the lines of $100 or so.
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June 15, 2011, 04:58:07 PM
 #15

So ~50-60% increase, per difficulty.

Can you also guesstimate when those difficulties will come, in days, given current growth/etc?

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Klestin
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June 15, 2011, 05:06:10 PM
 #16

Median Difficulty forecast for block 131040: 847013

Actual Difficulty re-target for block 131040: 877227

Variance: 3.6%

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June 15, 2011, 05:33:56 PM
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Understood on going out too far : )

2-3 Difficulties should be reasonably extrapolate-ble though, I think.

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KorJax
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June 15, 2011, 05:47:45 PM
 #18

I'm curious to know the meta-concequences of how the difficulty will affect the going price of the BTC.

Would a higher difficulity mean prices get driven higher? Would that mean that if one were to invest into BTC, now would be the time before this happens?
bitcoinminer
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June 16, 2011, 12:57:10 AM
 #19

The price will stay below $22 for the next week, followed by a slow creep up to 28-30 in two weeks.  Use those numbers and tell me what happens Smiley

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

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TraderTimm
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June 16, 2011, 01:37:20 AM
 #20

The price will stay below $22 for the next week, followed by a slow creep up to 28-30 in two weeks.  Use those numbers and tell me what happens Smiley

I'm also very curious to see if total tera-hash/sec capacity increases, or if outright buy-and-hold does. Perhaps in the absence of large sell blocks, we can look forward to a bit of a plateau?

Appreciate the numbers as always, chodpaba!

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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