Speculation on Litecoin

[ATC777]

I'm speculating on the Litecoin, and I'd just like to share my thinking with the community -- perhaps it will make some of you a pretty penny too...

Sooner or later ASICs are coming to the Bitcoin world. And when they do tremendous hashing power can be had for cheap... much cheaper than a GPU. Even a little chip like BFL's "Jalapeno" retailing for $169-ish makes a GPU look like a kid's toy. Not only that, but ASICs will use minute amounts of electricity in proportion to their hash rates. So not only will miners get more hashing power for their buck, but running systems with insane amounts of hashing power will be much cheaper. And the only logical conclusion to draw from this is that mining difficulty will sky-rocket, and GPUs will no longer be suitable for mining... They simply cost too much for too little hash-power, and they consume too much energy and produce too much heat.

The ASICs are going to put GPU miners out of business almost over-night. Many people are running not just one or two GPUs but entire arrays of machines with multiple GPUs... Thus there will be a lot of bored young men with nothing to do in possession of a monstrous amount of hashing power. So what else will there be left to do but cut their losses and get out of the business, OR start mining Litecoin? That's precisely what's going to happen: Litecoin will become the scene for GPU miners looking to entertain themselves and make some profit.

As people migrate to Litecoin mining the user-base for Litecoin is going to expand and the demand for Litecoin will start rising. With a much bigger network of miners and traders, and thus more liquidity, more regular people are going to use Litecoin. Speculators will also start buying bundles of Litecoin in anticipation of more demand and a bigger user-base. This could trigger and parabolic move in the exchange rate and re-create the conditions of Bitcoin's early spike to $30... after all, I think Litecoin's designers' goal was not only to create a cheaper and more plentiful currency but to recreate the conditions that made many early adopters of Bitcoin instant millionaires. I may not get the exchange rate bubble I'm hoping for, but I'm quite confident Litecoin is going to soon be on the rise.

I won't make any predictions about the long-term future or viability of Litecoin, as it's too early to tell (though I think it has some potential). But I've been trading stocks, futures/commodities, options and FOREX for years and I "feel" a big move looming on the horizon. I've already bought some small quantities of Litecoin here and there, and I'll be adding to my position. I also have a very bullish view on Bitcoin, but as a larger and more liquid market I think it has less potential to move really big really fast. It feels like the Litecoin designers succeeded in their "Litecoin is to silver as Bitcoin is to gold" concept -- Litecoin will provide the type of trader and speculator-friendly volatility guys like me are looking for.

So don't run out and get a second mortgage on your home and put it all on Litecoin. That would be stupid. But I think it wise to buy a little here and there and see how it plays out. Use some common sense in your risk management and follow the rules of speculation and you will come out fine.

Cheers! 

--ATC--

[nobbynobbynoob]

I should've bought more when the price was low (hmm, maybe it still is). Currently, there's no real LTC market to sustain a price as high as BTC0,006?

[smoothie]

The buy order book is drying up for LTC.

[ATC777]

The buy order book is drying up for LTC.

I wouldn't put so much emphasis on the books, as market books are vulnerable to quote-stuffing and manipulation of the perception of liquidity... focus on the legitimate trading that takes place. 

[SAC]

The buy order book is drying up for LTC.

I wouldn't put so much emphasis on the books, as market books are vulnerable to quote-stuffing and manipulation of the perception of liquidity... focus on the legitimate trading that takes place. 

Not to mention everyone of these "exchanges" I have seen allow you to buy and sell to yourself very cheaply, then you have the market manipulation bots as well. If these two holes were ever closed then we just might have hope in hell of actually seeing what all these *coins are really worth until that happens it is all based on the whim of the manipulators of the day.

[smoothie]

The buy order book is drying up for LTC.

I wouldn't put so much emphasis on the books, as market books are vulnerable to quote-stuffing and manipulation of the perception of liquidity... focus on the legitimate trading that takes place. 

I would...I've been watching this market for over a year now. I know when the price is going to go lower. Now isn't a time to buy.

[SAC]

The buy order book is drying up for LTC.

I wouldn't put so much emphasis on the books, as market books are vulnerable to quote-stuffing and manipulation of the perception of liquidity... focus on the legitimate trading that takes place. 

I would...I've been manipulating this market for over a year now. I know when the price is going to go lower. Now isn't a time to buy.

FTFY.

[bitcool]

LOL. I still have some chump change left, looking forward to exchanging some ltc.

[hanzac]

Litecoin needs a commodity market to enhance the confidence. Otherwise, the price will still struggle at current level. If the market can exist, the price will jump to another level.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Litecoin needs a commodity market to enhance the confidence. Otherwise, the price will still struggle at current level. If the market can exist, the price will jump to another level.

Like this?

[smoothie]

The buy order book is drying up for LTC.

I wouldn't put so much emphasis on the books, as market books are vulnerable to quote-stuffing and manipulation of the perception of liquidity... focus on the legitimate trading that takes place. 

I would...I've been manipulating this market for over a year now. I know when the price is going to go lower. Now isn't a time to buy.

FTFY.

Aww thanks for the credit. But nope. I'm not that rich. I wish.

I've called some pretty good times to buy and sell.   

[smoothie]

Litecoin needs a commodity market to enhance the confidence. Otherwise, the price will still struggle at current level. If the market can exist, the price will jump to another level.

Like this?

That is just a paper stock market for LTC. I don't see goods and services being dealt for LTC. Not many that is.

[hanzac]

Litecoin needs a commodity market to enhance the confidence. Otherwise, the price will still struggle at current level. If the market can exist, the price will jump to another level.

Like this?

like http://www.bitmit.net
actually escrow like market

[CoinHoarder]

Litecoin needs a commodity market to enhance the confidence. Otherwise, the price will still struggle at current level. If the market can exist, the price will jump to another level.

Like this?

like http://www.bitmit.net
actually escrow like market

The first LTC open cart/word press/woo commerce plugins were only released into the community earlier this month. http://forum.litecoin.net/index.php/topic,936.0.html

IMO It's just a matter of time before people figure it out and start accepting LTC right along side BTC. Bitcoin is ummm... for lack of a better term, "rode hard and put up wet"....

There are many business ideas that have already come to fruition with Bitcoin. However with Litecoin, the door is wide open for just about any business you can think of. Expect some ballsy (read: smart) entrepreneurs to step in and cease those opportunities. I think it is possible those opportunities might fuel LTC's growth at a faster pace than BTC.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Litecoin needs a commodity market to enhance the confidence. Otherwise, the price will still struggle at current level. If the market can exist, the price will jump to another level.

Like this?

That is just a paper stock market for LTC. I don't see goods and services being dealt for LTC. Not many that is.

Oh, shit! lol  I Brain farted!   

[420]

There's always the chance for self fulfilling prophecy

Now isn't a time to buy.

for the short term

As for the MARKET

I'd rather sell goods in Litecoin because the confirmations come quicker

[Bendur]

I'm speculating on the Litecoin, and I'd just like to share my thinking with the community -- perhaps it will make some of you a pretty penny too...

Sooner or later ASICs are coming to the Bitcoin world. And when they do tremendous hashing power can be had for cheap... much cheaper than a GPU. Even a little chip like BFL's "Jalapeno" retailing for $169-ish makes a GPU look like a kid's toy. Not only that, but ASICs will use minute amounts of electricity in proportion to their hash rates. So not only will miners get more hashing power for their buck, but running systems with insane amounts of hashing power will be much cheaper. And the only logical conclusion to draw from this is that mining difficulty will sky-rocket, and GPUs will no longer be suitable for mining... They simply cost too much for too little hash-power, and they consume too much energy and produce too much heat.

The ASICs are going to put GPU miners out of business almost over-night. Many people are running not just one or two GPUs but entire arrays of machines with multiple GPUs... Thus there will be a lot of bored young men with nothing to do in possession of a monstrous amount of hashing power. So what else will there be left to do but cut their losses and get out of the business, OR start mining Litecoin? That's precisely what's going to happen: Litecoin will become the scene for GPU miners looking to entertain themselves and make some profit.

As people migrate to Litecoin mining the user-base for Litecoin is going to expand and the demand for Litecoin will start rising. With a much bigger network of miners and traders, and thus more liquidity, more regular people are going to use Litecoin. Speculators will also start buying bundles of Litecoin in anticipation of more demand and a bigger user-base. This could trigger and parabolic move in the exchange rate and re-create the conditions of Bitcoin's early spike to $30... after all, I think Litecoin's designers' goal was not only to create a cheaper and more plentiful currency but to recreate the conditions that made many early adopters of Bitcoin instant millionaires. I may not get the exchange rate bubble I'm hoping for, but I'm quite confident Litecoin is going to soon be on the rise.

I won't make any predictions about the long-term future or viability of Litecoin, as it's too early to tell (though I think it has some potential). But I've been trading stocks, futures/commodities, options and FOREX for years and I "feel" a big move looming on the horizon. I've already bought some small quantities of Litecoin here and there, and I'll be adding to my position. I also have a very bullish view on Bitcoin, but as a larger and more liquid market I think it has less potential to move really big really fast. It feels like the Litecoin designers succeeded in their "Litecoin is to silver as Bitcoin is to gold" concept -- Litecoin will provide the type of trader and speculator-friendly volatility guys like me are looking for.

So don't run out and get a second mortgage on your home and put it all on Litecoin. That would be stupid. But I think it wise to buy a little here and there and see how it plays out. Use some common sense in your risk management and follow the rules of speculation and you will come out fine.

Cheers! 

--ATC--

+1. The litecoin train is getting ready to leave the station. Are you on board yet?

[DarkHyudrA]

This remembered to ask something: is there any alt that doesnt use SHA256 and is alive?
As all the others alts(except LTC) I could remember, the ASICs could be used for them as well.

[RyNinDaCleM]

This remembered to ask something: is there any alt that doesnt use SHA256 and is alive?
As all the others alts(except LTC) I could remember, the ASICs could be used for them as well.

Tenebrix/fairbrix were both scrypt, both are dead!

[420]

Smoothie thinks now's the time to sell ltc...

said that yesterday. right after (maybe 8 hours) there was the slight dip in ltc prices in btc and USD terms... but due for more probably. then it shall rise...RISE!!!