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December 31, 2012, 12:12:23 AM |
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In the olden days, before Greenspan, the Fed's market operations were exposed to the market after the fact, it was not supposed to create immediate speculative decisions in the market, rather the effect should softly trickle into all aspects of economic life. Greenspan started the custom of arranging decision meetings and press conferences at fixed times, declaring the Fed's intensions and also the most probable decision on the next meeting.
But one of Bernankes fads is, in additon to manipulating the money system, is to also manipulate the general publics opinion on what the future brings. Therefore his speeches also brings a general economic prospect. Now: Inflation (meaning lowering of the exchange value of money) is currently not a problem (and we can fix that when it arrives). He probably does not really mean that, as the inflation (of money supply) and (the consequent) devaluation of the dollar is a means to confiscate some of the publics money, and suck value out of other countries.
Anyway, as people slowly discover the effect, they will counteract it using contracts with price index clausuls, and generally keep the cash level as low as possible.
To counteract that again, the Fed will increase the inflation, that is increase the rate of increase of the money supply.
And now to the point: To support this, and continue the deception, his press conferences (or other sightings) have to increase in frequency. I think his last speech was 12.th of December. He said, if we go over the cliff the Fed can't help.
Well I think he thinks he can, but first he will let the politicians pee in their trousers. I forecast the the next Bernanke sighting will be Jan 1, or at latest Jan 2, and the message will be comforting to investors.
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