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Question: On january 1st 2014 the BTC/USD exchange will be  (Voting closed: January 01, 2014, 04:59:26 PM)
above 100$/BTC - 25 (16.1%)
between 20 and 100 $/BTC - 96 (61.9%)
between 10 and 20 $/BTC - 20 (12.9%)
between 1 and 10 $/BTC - 9 (5.8%)
below 1 $/BTC - 5 (3.2%)
Total Voters: 155

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Author Topic: Your bets for 2014  (Read 6806 times)
grondilu (OP)
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January 01, 2013, 04:59:26 PM
 #1


I know a future market where people put money where their mouth is would be a better indicator, but for those who would like to speculate without actually risking to lose anything: here you go, you can bet about the exchange rate for next year here!

myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)


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January 01, 2013, 06:56:28 PM
 #2

Quote
between 1 and 10 $/BTC    

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
smoothie
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January 01, 2013, 07:44:27 PM
 #3

I say between $20 and $100 by end of 2014. That doesn't mean the price can't go down from here though.

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knight22
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--------------->¿?


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January 04, 2013, 01:49:01 AM
 #4

My guess is around 25$

Chalkbot
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January 04, 2013, 02:13:11 AM
 #5

I think Bitcoin will be stable and in the low $17.xx range by the end of 2013.
lucif
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January 04, 2013, 02:15:47 PM
 #6

I think Bitcoin database size will make it totally unusable on regular hardware. GPU miners will quit biz and sell their stuff.
Bitpay will continue to get ppl Bitcoin reserves and sell them on market.

All this will bring single digits or less Bitcoin price.
zoinky
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January 05, 2013, 01:19:21 AM
 #7

I think Bitcoin database size will make it totally unusable on regular hardware. GPU miners will quit biz and sell their stuff.
Bitpay will continue to get ppl Bitcoin reserves and sell them on market.

All this will bring single digits or less Bitcoin price.
But the database still fits on a thumb drive?   Huh
lucif
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January 05, 2013, 02:00:06 AM
 #8

But causes total hang of system IO scheduler on open, close, sync.

You ppl do not have brains? When DB will reach size of RAM of common computer - customers will better shut themselves rather than use vanilla client.
notme
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January 05, 2013, 09:15:56 AM
 #9

But causes total hang of system IO scheduler on open, close, sync.

You ppl do not have brains? When DB will reach size of RAM of common computer - customers will better shut themselves rather than use vanilla client.

Have you tried the 0.8 prerelease?  It reduces the working set (the part needed in memory) to around 150 MB with the current blockchain.  It synced on my machine in under four hours without even keeping one core busy and mostly idle disk (it was network bound, which is the next area targeted for speed up).  Someone ran it on an old pentium 4 machine and it synced in under 6 hours (easily done overnight).

In other words, I know you love Satan, but there are enough truths to strike fear in people's hearts.  You don't need to make up lies.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
lucif
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January 05, 2013, 03:29:03 PM
 #10

There is no matter, how much data it loads to memory.

They key is index size, which is growing. Another key is number of broadcasted new transactions per time, which require database lookup to verify them.

As index size will run out of ~double avg RAM size of common computer - clients will start goxxxxxing on each incoming unspent trans. Because any disk caching mechanism will not be effective with such data and RAM sizes.

So every client on every incoming unspent trans will perform uncached disk lookup through gigabytes of data.


Hehe.
lucif
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January 05, 2013, 03:34:25 PM
 #11

I mean no software optimizations will be effective on such conditions.

Gavin will have to publish minimum hardware req to run client. And those req will include good amount of RAM and good ssd disk.
grondilu (OP)
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January 05, 2013, 03:38:09 PM
 #12

They key is index size, which is growing. Another key is number of broadcasted new transactions per time, which require database lookup to verify them.

As index size will run out of ~double avg RAM size of common computer - clients will start goxxxxxing on each incoming unspent trans. Because any disk caching mechanism will not be effective with such data and RAM sizes.

So every client on every incoming unspent trans will perform uncached disk lookup through gigabytes of data.

Hehe.

I'm no expert in databases but it seems to me you don't know what you're talking about.  Can someone confirm or infirm?

lucif
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January 05, 2013, 03:49:30 PM
 #13

I'm some kind of expert on high load servers maintenance. Including high load databases. I see future bottlenecks when they don't even exists. Project owners pay me good money for my skills.
lucif
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January 05, 2013, 04:02:21 PM
 #14

Growing unspent transactions number mean growing key lookup load on database.

And when index size do not fit in RAM - software will perform key lookup reading whole index from HDD (gigabytes of data on single lookup).

It is obvious that such conditions will require good SCSI or SSD backing array.
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January 05, 2013, 04:25:16 PM
 #15

Quote
above 100$/BTC    - 17 (15.9%)
between 20 and 100 $/BTC    - 67 (62.6%)

Nice bets for 2014 - you guys should buy those cheap coins now, right? Wink

lucif
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January 05, 2013, 04:58:55 PM
Last edit: January 05, 2013, 06:09:30 PM by lucif
 #16

I'm not big expert in Berkeley DB, but it is obvious that one index record takes about 300 bytes in space. It's a sha256 hash + some index data. Remind me true number if you please.

So... To get index size greater than 4G we need only 13m transactions in whole chain. This is nothing for widely used payment system. For Bitcoin it is a 180 days of blocks containing 500 transactions each.

So Bitcoin is about to grow? Hehe.
grondilu (OP)
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January 05, 2013, 07:21:55 PM
 #17

I'm not big expert in Berkeley DB, but it is obvious that one index record takes about 300 bytes in space. It's a sha256 hash + some index data. Remind me true number if you please.

So... To get index size greater than 4G we need only 13m transactions in whole chain. This is nothing for widely used payment system. For Bitcoin it is a 180 days of blocks containing 500 transactions each.

So Bitcoin is about to grow? Hehe.

You know that spent transactions can be ignored, don't you?

pent
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January 05, 2013, 07:26:56 PM
 #18

You know that spent transactions can be burried, don't you?
With the cost of security, don't you know?

If client receive bcast block/transaction from network it must check its prev outputs in full block chain to know whether its a valid transaction for futher broadcast.

If client burn old transaction - it will not be able to check new transactions for validity.

If it broadcast not valid transaction - it will be banned by vanilla clients.

So burning old block bodies makes client vulnerable to Sybill and DoS attacks, coz he unable to check what is true and what is false comming from network.
grondilu (OP)
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January 05, 2013, 07:30:35 PM
 #19

You know that spent transactions can be burried, don't you?
With the cost of security, don't you know?

If client receive bcast block/transaction from network it must check its prev outputs in full block chain to know whether its a valid transaction for futher broadcast.

If client burn old transaction - it will not be able to check new transactions for validity.

If it broadcast not valid transaction - it will be banned by vanilla clients.

So burning old block bodies makes client vulnerable to Sybill and DoS attacks.

There is no security flaw in this.  New transactions are not supposed to try to spend an already spent transaction.  So it makes sense to remove spent transactions (only once buried under a few blocks though) from the index.  They will still be in the database, but accessing to them will take more time.

Though I'm no database expert, I'm pretty sure an index does not have to be exhaustive.

pent
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January 05, 2013, 07:37:59 PM
 #20

Allright. The client with DB consisting only with block headers receives the transaction. What next he must do with it?

Store? No. It must be sure transaction is valid to store it, but he can not check its validity as he dont have full chain.
Broadcast? No. Same reason. If trx isnt valid, he will be banned as DoS source by vanilla clients.

If network will consist of huge part of such light clients - it will be paralyzed.
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