Satoshis stash is not as large as some think

[franky1]

when looking at this analysis done a few years ago, some have presumed that all the tall slopes are satoshi..
or that satoshi was all the blue dots and only hal was the red dot.

but its not.

initial versions of bitcoin started at a base nonce('extranonce' if your going to be an anal knickpick) of 0 and incremented up..
even when solving a block they would continue increment the nonce until they restarted the client/computer. where the nonce began at 0 again.

some versions did eventually play around with the code and set it to reset after each block had been solved.
and some set it to reset after a certain number.
thats why you see that there is a difference between a bunch of people who's nonce never really goes above 250 some didnt go above 500.. and some went all the way up, and some were random

so most will say that satoshi must be all the long lines..
but then we get into the analysis of the angle of the slope.
where the angle reveals a different hash speed (cpu speed) so a slope at nearly 10degrees is a totally different and faster cpu compared to the one near 45 degree's

over the last few years many people have looked at angles, nonce resets and other factors and worked out in the first couple weeks of bitcoin (height 0-1000) there was 9 people or possibly 9 different systems mining bitcoin not just satoshi and not just satoshi and hal.. and even more miners by the time the blockheight got to 10,000

your free to use bitcointalks search to find the analysis.

[DannyHamilton]

Here's a link to the thread that franky1 is talking about:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=507458.0

Take a look at the entire thread and the discussions about which bitcoins Satoshi is likely to own and why.  Then make your own decision as to which assumptions are probably right, and which aren't.  Add up the coins from the decisions you agree with and you can have your own personal estimate of how many bitcoins Satoshi is likely yo have control over.

[Amph]

even if he have only 100k, and by the look of those data he can not have less than that, since at 500k coins they were only in 9, and he was the first, so it's easy to assume that he own at least 100k

still that is a dangerous amount, if he decide to dump... but anyway i don't think he will ever dump his coins, if he truly believe in bitcoin, and he should because you know he is the one behind the idea of bitcoin...then he should wait until bitcoin is adopted and use it directly

[Blind Legs Parker]

it is fair enough to assume whomever does isn't going to dump them at a high point or they would have at 1000$.

Because everyone knew back then what everyone knows now: of course $1000 is and will forever be the all-time high and all the people who bought at that price or during the dump are dumbasses because hey, $1000 is the absolute top and it shall never be exceeded whatsoever  .

[European Central Bank]

still that is a dangerous amount, if he decide to dump... but anyway i don't think he will ever dump his coins, if he truly believe in bitcoin, and he should because you know he is the one behind the idea of bitcoin...then he should wait until bitcoin is adopted and use it directly

There are quite a few people who seem or claim to have over 100,000 coins. Some of those guys are far more mercenary than Satoshi would ever be. I don't understand why we never panic about them.

[franky1]

even if he have only 100k, and by the look of those data he can not have less than that, since at 500k coins they were only in 9, and he was the first, so it's easy to assume that he own at least 100k

still that is a dangerous amount, if he decide to dump... but anyway i don't think he will ever dump his coins, if he truly believe in bitcoin, and he should because you know he is the one behind the idea of bitcoin...then he should wait until bitcoin is adopted and use it directly

dangerous?

mark kerpeles secret hoard of upto 600k-900k coins is more dangerous. and more chance of popping up one day.

but ultimately it wont kill bitcoin, it would just be a temporary bit of drama where the price tanks (temporarily).. blocks will still be mined people will still make transactions. yes there will be some losers. but on the flip side lots of winners, people will get the chance to buy some cheap coin. so its ultimately just price drama that doesnt hurt bitcoin as it ultimately doesnt hurt the 21m bitcoin cap..(think long term picture not the short term drama)

There are quite a few people who seem or claim to have over 100,000 coins. Some of those guys are far more mercenary than Satoshi would ever be. I don't understand why we never panic about them.

+1

[Maria5.0]

https://i.imgur.com/ZNXx9g9.png

when looking at this analysis done a few years ago, some have presumed that all the tall slopes are satoshi..
or that satoshi was all the blue dots and only hal was the red dot.

but its not.

initial versions of bitcoin started at a base nonce('extranonce' if your going to be an anal knickpick) of 0 and incremented up..
even when solving a block they would continue increment the nonce until they restarted the client/computer. where the nonce began at 0 again.

some versions did eventually play around with the code and set it to reset after each block had been solved.
and some set it to reset after a certain number.
thats why you see that there is a difference between a bunch of people who's nonce never really goes above 250 some didnt go above 500.. and some went all the way up, and some were random

so most will say that satoshi must be all the long lines..
but then we get into the analysis of the angle of the slope.
where the angle reveals a different hash speed (cpu speed) so a slope at nearly 10degrees is a totally different and faster cpu compared to the one near 45 degree's

over the last few years many people have looked at angles, nonce resets and other factors and worked out in the first couple weeks of bitcoin (height 0-1000) there was 9 people or possibly 9 different systems mining bitcoin not just satoshi and not just satoshi and hal.. and even more miners by the time the blockheight got to 10,000

your free to use bitcointalks search to find the analysis.

I started mining around block 9000.

Maria.

[maria6.0]

https://i.imgur.com/ZNXx9g9.png

when looking at this analysis done a few years ago, some have presumed that all the tall slopes are satoshi..
or that satoshi was all the blue dots and only hal was the red dot.

but its not.

initial versions of bitcoin started at a base nonce('extranonce' if your going to be an anal knickpick) of 0 and incremented up..
even when solving a block they would continue increment the nonce until they restarted the client/computer. where the nonce began at 0 again.

some versions did eventually play around with the code and set it to reset after each block had been solved.
and some set it to reset after a certain number.
thats why you see that there is a difference between a bunch of people who's nonce never really goes above 250 some didnt go above 500.. and some went all the way up, and some were random

so most will say that satoshi must be all the long lines..
but then we get into the analysis of the angle of the slope.
where the angle reveals a different hash speed (cpu speed) so a slope at nearly 10degrees is a totally different and faster cpu compared to the one near 45 degree's

over the last few years many people have looked at angles, nonce resets and other factors and worked out in the first couple weeks of bitcoin (height 0-1000) there was 9 people or possibly 9 different systems mining bitcoin not just satoshi and not just satoshi and hal.. and even more miners by the time the blockheight got to 10,000

your free to use bitcointalks search to find the analysis.

I started mining around block 9000.

Maria.

I started mining april 1, 2013.

airaM.

[Kprawn]

I do not think it will be a train smash, if it were dumped.... because a lot of people would be reporting about that in the media and a lot of people will

try to get some of these cheap coins, until it is fully absorbed. It would be like getting a second chance at a Gold Rush. Every know and again, you

hear about a large gold deposit being found, and then the price on the commodity markets take a dive, but it always bounce back after a while. The

same will happen, if these coins are dumped... A large group of speculators will start selling and you will pick up a bunch of cheap coins.  

[Amph]

even if he have only 100k, and by the look of those data he can not have less than that, since at 500k coins they were only in 9, and he was the first, so it's easy to assume that he own at least 100k

still that is a dangerous amount, if he decide to dump... but anyway i don't think he will ever dump his coins, if he truly believe in bitcoin, and he should because you know he is the one behind the idea of bitcoin...then he should wait until bitcoin is adopted and use it directly

dangerous?

mark kerpeles secret hoard of upto 600k-900k coins is more dangerous. and more chance of popping up one day.

but ultimately it wont kill bitcoin, it would just be a temporary bit of drama where the price tanks (temporarily).. blocks will still be mined people will still make transactions. yes there will be some losers. but on the flip side lots of winners, people will get the chance to buy some cheap coin. so its ultimately just price drama that doesnt hurt bitcoin as it ultimately doesnt hurt the 21m bitcoin cap..(think long term picture not the short term drama)

mark keples is in jail, he can not retrieve those, if those are not retrievable in any case, there is no proof that those coins are still at his disposal

[Bitcoininspace]

Here's a link to the thread that franky1 is talking about:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=507458.0

Take a look at the entire thread and the discussions about which bitcoins Satoshi is likely to own and why.  Then make your own decision as to which assumptions are probably right, and which aren't.  Add up the coins from the decisions you agree with and you can have your own personal estimate of how many bitcoins Satoshi is likely yo have control over.

So the coins people are sure he has mined are still untouched to this day? Woah.

[knowhow]

The thing is the total ammount hold by him may be lower then people expected,but he had bought his bitcoin to others soo some people sold their portfolio.

[franky1]

mark keples is in jail, he can not retrieve those, if those are not retrievable in any case, there is no proof that those coins are still at his disposal

but those coins are somewhere.. and so. they posess more of a threat. as they are more recent and more unknown.. it just takes one phonecall, even for jail to kerpeles's partner in crime (also unknown) to push the coins out.

imagine he appeals and requests a large fine.. thats more incentive to push put coins. and more realistic than the worry of satoshi coming back with keys which are more likely lost in wallet deletions each time he changed the sourcecode.

[LiteCoinGuy]

he will never move these coins so i dont care. but nice analysis, thx 

[stoat]

Why don't you just email Nick Szabo and ask him how many bitcoins he has.

[franky1]

Why don't you just email Nick Szabo and ask him how many bitcoins he has.

its not nick..
but i do love some of the theories and 'proofs'

the funniest one is using the letters of his name
someone said nicks middle name was thomas

NICK THOMAS SZABO

take the C and the B change them to numeric (c=3 b=2)
3x2=6
6= 1 and 1 and 1 and 1 and 1 and 1
1=A and 1,1,1,1,1     (A and five 1's)
keep the A, we will use that later


1,1,1,1,1= 3 and 2
3x2=6
6=3 and 3
3x3=9

take the Z and change it to numeric (z=26)
26+9=35

dont take these out, just note that the missing letters are O=15 T=20   =35

so numerically we can see there is a conversion method for ZBC=AOT
now take out the CBZ and add in the AOT

NICK THOMAS SZABO
NIK THOMAS SAOAOT

now mix them letters up from:
NIK THOMAS SAOAOT

to:

S   (NIK THOMAS AOAOT)
SA   (NIK THOMAS OAOT)
SAT   (NIK HOMAS OAOT)
SATO   (NIK HMAS OAOT)
SATOS   (NIK HMA OAOT)
SATOSH   (NIK MA OAOT)
SATOSHI   (NK MA OAOT)
SATOSHI N  (K MA OAOT)
SATOSHI NA  (K M OAOT)
SATOSHI NAK  ( M OAOT)
SATOSHI NAKA  ( M OOT)
SATOSHI NAKAM  (  OOT)
SATOSHI NAKAMO  (  OT)
SATOSHI NAKAMOT  (  O)
SATOSHI NAKAMOTO

i know nick is not, but i just liked this bit of speculation and wordplay.. put a smile on my face

[russian_pete]

quote author=kingcolex link=topic=1343260.msg13697744#msg13697744 date=1453928716]
I don't see the point to really care, we can assume all we want but I don't think it matters. Even if Satoshi doesn't have 1,000,000 coins it is fair enough to assume whomever does isn't going to dump them at a high point or they would have at 1000$.
[/quote]

I'm quite sure they (cause satoshi is not a single person) dumped it a while ago. There would be no reason for they to know it would explode in price like it did. If you had 500k of something worth nothing that suddenly was worth 100 bucks, would you still hold it? It's very hard to have that level of cold blood.

[AgentofCoin]

...
Think about it, why would "Satoshi" reference Hal Finney and Wei Dai but not the main key player out of the three people Hal Nick and Wei?
Why would he not reference arguably the most important out of those three people?
...

What are you referencing that from?
Can you provide the Satoshi quote you are referencing?

[155UE]

I don't really think it really matters how much he has.
I doubt he will dump them all at a time as that would crash bitcoin

[calkob]

it is fair enough to assume whomever does isn't going to dump them at a high point or they would have at 1000$.

Because everyone knew back then what everyone knows now: of course $1000 is and will forever be the all-time high and all the people who bought at that price or during the dump are dumbasses because hey, $1000 is the absolute top and it shall never be exceeded whatsoever  .

Any evidence for this prediction or are you just talking outa your ass like alot of dickheads on this forum.....