Is it wise to invest in miners few months before reward halving?

[vrm86]

As everyone knows, 16.07.2016 BTC reward will be halved. How people should consider this fact when planning to build mining rig in next few months?

Bitcoin price has to rise 100% to cover the loss of blocks mined and this is the scenario that bagholders from all over the world are looking forward to be fulfilled.
If the price won't go up, miners will be screwed up.

So, the possibilities are as following:

100%  price increase:

1) Mining - still profitable, have to wait for ROI
2) Buying BTC - instant 100% profit after halving


1-99% price increase:
 
1) Mining - becoming less profitable, may generate losses in some conditions
2) Buying BTC - investor will make profit, question is if it will be significant or not

0% price increase:

1) Mining - most of miners are screwed up, as their income also halves, only people with access to very cheap electricity have chances to still earn anything
2) Buying BTC - initial capital is just located in BTC, nothing happens

Of course I didn't consider other possible BTC fluctuations as we can't predict them.

[1714843618]

1714843618

[adaseb]

Right now you really are better off buying BTC since its lower then it was before. Depending on how much you pay for electricity, its much safer to just buy the coin.

If the coins fails and goes to like $50, you would of lost money either way.

[vrm86]

If the coins fails and goes to like $50, you would of lost money either way.

You're right, but I assume that I want to invest anyway and have to choose. IMO in case of price crash it's still better to have cheap BTC in wallet, than turned off miner.

[SFR10]

I have a friend from Russia (he own a mining farm there - a normal one) and he keeps on telling me to wait until the halving is done as it could affect everything including the mining equipment's and not just in terms of prices but also in terms of pushing manufacturers to introduce better mining equipment's with a better price as to it's total offered GHs/THs ratio to whats now so and as mentioned above, just buy BTCitcoin now and invest in miners after the halving itself.

[Shibashi Dogemoto]

I personally wouldn't do it, but in some cases it might still be OK...

It'll take another 5-6 months before the halving. In case you're buying second hand miners, it's very well possible to ROI before the halving if your electricity is free (or almost free, i've seen people from finland buying electricity @ 0.024cents/Kwu, but i cannot find the exact thread ATM)... In case your calculations point out that you can ROI in 3-4 months, and you have really cheap electricity, i guess you can still make a nice profit.

Don't forget that a miner will always be worth something... Offcourse, the price might drop significantly if newer/better HW comes on the market, or if the price stays the same while the block reward halves, it'll still be worth something.

So, my conclusion would be to look at this problem in a case-by-case scenario.
Cheap hardware + cheap electricity might still work  

[vrm86]

I have a friend from Russia (he own a mining farm there - a normal one) and he keeps on telling me to wait until the halving is done as it could affect everything including the mining equipment's and not just in terms of prices but also in terms of pushing manufacturers to introduce better mining equipment's with a better price as to it's total offered GHs/THs ratio to whats now so and as mentioned above, just buy BTCitcoin now and invest in miners after the halving itself.

Good point. It is against manufacturers interests to release milestone upgrades, when they could consequent release slightly boosted new versions of hardware with little effort.
After halving, people could stop buying their unprofitable devices at all, unless something reliable will be proposed. So it would be 'to be or not to be' situation for miners manufacturers.

I personally wouldn't do it, but in some cases it might still be OK...

It'll take another 5-6 months before the halving. In case you're buying second hand miners, it's very well possible to ROI before the halving if your electricity is free (or almost free, i've seen people from finland buying electricity @ 0.024cents/Kwu, but i cannot find the exact thread ATM)... In case your calculations point out that you can ROI in 3-4 months, and you have really cheap electricity, i guess you can still make a nice profit.

Don't forget that a miner will always be worth something... Offcourse, the price might drop significantly if newer/better HW comes on the market, or if the price stays the same while the block reward halves, it'll still be worth something.

So, my conclusion would be to look at this problem in a case-by-case scenario.
Cheap hardware + cheap electricity might still work  

Yes, you must have a plan to make ROI before halving and it makes sense then.
Completely obsolete devices are still available from second hand at unbelievable high prices, but it's rather hobbyist's thing you could still try to sell to someone

[European Central Bank]

Completely obsolete devices are still available from second hand at unbelievable high prices, but it's rather hobbyist's thing you could still try to sell to someone

Yes. I've seen this repeatedly. It seems really strange to me. I guess they're preying on people who ain't clever enough to do their math as it's all in public if you know where to look. If I had a burning desire to throw my money away mining I'd get a usb miner and be happy with that.

[Shibashi Dogemoto]

Yes, you must have a plan to make ROI before halving and it makes sense then.
Completely obsolete devices are still available from second hand at unbelievable high prices, but it's rather hobbyist's thing you could still try to sell to someone

Indeed...
I've made some private bids to guys selling of old S2/S3's... Some blatantly made fun of my bids (usually in the $60-$90 range for an S3 and $150-$200 for an S2).

I even tried to send them my calculations, but it seems they can get a lot more from newbies that pay way to much for older HW (IMHO).
Basically, you can buy an antminer S7 for $920 (without coupons), it gives you 4.73 Th at 0.25 joule/Ghash and 3 months factory warranty. Basically, you pay 1 dollar for little over 5,14 Ghash.

An S2 runs at 1 Th, so following basic math, it'll be worth less than $194  (since it uses 1.1J/Gh, is old, and has no factory warranty, i always assumed $150 a fair bid)
An S3 runs at 441 Gh, so following basic math, it'll be worth less than $85 (since it uses 0.77J/Gh, and has no factory warranty,  i always assumed $60 a fair bid)


I know, my rambling is a bit offtopic, i just wanted to let the OP know that he has to be carefull not to overpay  

[mavericklm]

I have a friend from Russia (he own a mining farm there - a normal one) and he keeps on telling me to wait until the halving is done as it could affect everything including the mining equipment's and not just in terms of prices but also in terms of pushing manufacturers to introduce better mining equipment's with a better price as to it's total offered GHs/THs ratio to whats now so and as mentioned above, just buy BTCitcoin now and invest in miners after the halving itself.

+1

And the price of old hardware will become pennies!

Another factor to think about is the btc price, but in the end you are still good!

If you need the heat, then do it! Otherwise buy btc!

[vrm86]

Yes, you must have a plan to make ROI before halving and it makes sense then.
Completely obsolete devices are still available from second hand at unbelievable high prices, but it's rather hobbyist's thing you could still try to sell to someone

Indeed...
I've made some private bids to guys selling of old S2/S3's... Some blatantly made fun of my bids (usually in the $60-$90 range for an S3 and $150-$200 for an S2).

I even tried to send them my calculations, but it seems they can get a lot more from newbies that pay way to much for older HW (IMHO).
Basically, you can buy an antminer S7 for $920 (without coupons), it gives you 4.73 Th at 0.25 joule/Ghash and 3 months factory warranty. Basically, you pay 1 dollar for little over 5,14 Ghash.

An S2 runs at 1 Th, so following basic math, it'll be worth less than $194  (since it uses 1.1J/Gh, is old, and has no factory warranty, i always assumed $150 a fair bid)
An S3 runs at 441 Gh, so following basic math, it'll be worth less than $85 (since it uses 0.77J/Gh, and has no factory warranty,  i always assumed $60 a fair bid)


I know, my rambling is a bit offtopic, i just wanted to let the OP know that he has to be carefull not to overpay  

Not sure if offtopic, as selling your old mining gear is usually important record in revenue calculations 

[Amph]

no the profit is already bad as it is right now, i would avoid it, but in the worst case you can plan to resell it, if you really want to mine

the value of bitcoin will increase almost for sure before the halving, because the diff is still increase, since miners have plenty of margin

and to maintain this margin the value must increase, there is a simple logic behind it

[Hamliss]

Right now you really are better off buying BTC since its lower then it was before. Depending on how much you pay for electricity, its much safer to just buy the coin.

If the coins fails and goes to like $50, you would of lost money either way.

The price of bitcoin was kept low by big whales to accumulate. So we should also buy. Mining is only for low cost places.

[QuintLeo]

The time and date of the halfing isn't quite that precise. It will change depending on difficulty adjustments, and LIKELY will be a little sooner - though almost definitely still sometime in July 2016.

[Matias]

I've been wondering, what this will do to older miners, which are now profitable, but with any moderate electricity price will be non-profitable after halving.

E.g. I have Antminer S5 now, after halving profit will be +-0 with curren btc prise.

Should I try to dump that S5 now?

[Matias]

I personally wouldn't do it, but in some cases it might still be OK...

It'll take another 5-6 months before the halving. In case you're buying second hand miners, it's very well possible to ROI before the halving if your electricity is free (or almost free, i've seen people from finland buying electricity @ 0.024cents/Kwu, but i cannot find the exact thread ATM)...

Unfortunately I'm not getting electricity anywhere near that price In Finland and I doubt no one is. That maybe price for electricity sometimes, but there is also fee for grid usage and tax. I'd say is more like 8 eurocents/kwh here.

[Shibashi Dogemoto]

I personally wouldn't do it, but in some cases it might still be OK...

It'll take another 5-6 months before the halving. In case you're buying second hand miners, it's very well possible to ROI before the halving if your electricity is free (or almost free, i've seen people from finland buying electricity @ 0.024cents/Kwu, but i cannot find the exact thread ATM)...

Unfortunately I'm not getting electricity anywhere near that price In Finland and I doubt no one is. That maybe price for electricity sometimes, but there is also fee for grid usage and tax. I'd say is more like 8 eurocents/kwh here.

To bad, 0.024 would have been great
I'm not Finnish myself, i just read this price on another thread. @0.08cents/KWU, things will be difficult.

[Amph]

I've been wondering, what this will do to older miners, which are now profitable, but with any moderate electricity price will be non-profitable after halving.

E.g. I have Antminer S5 now, after halving profit will be +-0 with curren btc prise.

Should I try to dump that S5 now?

how much is your profit now? did you roi'ed already, if you roi already then i would wait otherwise you can try to sell it now if this will cut the roi time immediately and give back your money

[Matias]

^this was my first miner and I was too anxious to get it (first deal fizzled out and I was then anxious to get a miner, because I had allready waited). I paid too much. I'm propably newer going to ROI with this miner with mining.

[DrG]

I think the time to make a profit before the 1/2ing has passed.  You're better trying to grab a miner after the prices adjust themselves afterwards.  Gives you time to hunt for a deal on an exchange

[erikalui]

I wouldn't invest in miners now as it's better to wait till halving. A price drop can make miners go in loss and currently they don't earn a lot unless they have free electricity.