Bitshares Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction Market (Binary Option) assets trading

[HeliKopterBen]

The following Prediction Market assets are available for trading on the bitshares blockchain.

SPFIVE - If the S&P 500 is at or above $1875.00 on December 30th 2016 then this asset will be worth 1BTS. If the S&P 500 is below $1875.00 then this asset will be worth 0BTS.

WTICRUDE - If the price of WTI Crude oil is greater or equal to $40.00 on December 30th at 4PM eastern time. (UTC-5) then this asset will be worth 1BTS. If the price is below $40.00 this asset will be worth 0BTS. If you believe that the price will be above $40.00 buy and hold. If you beleive the price will be below $40.00 borrow and sell.

Click here for more information on how this Prediction Market works.

To trade:
1.    create an account on the OpenLedger platform
2.   Fund the account with bitshares – other assets are less liquid at the moment but should eventually be available for trading.  So for now, you will probably have to use the native currency, bts
3.   Navigate to your market of choice:



4.   Place your bets

Disclaimer:  I am in no way responsible for any problems or financial loss that may occur when using this (still experimental) system.

[1713581552]

1713581552

[1713581552]

1713581552

[HeliKopterBen]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/27/the-sp-500-can-buy-61-barrels-of-oil.html

[tokeweed]

Just wondering, why do people around here refer Bernake as 'Helicopter Ben'?  Why Helicopter?

[tokeweed]

mad money printing

speaking of prediction markets, they also got a super bowl betting asset in play as well

Go Broncos!

Their fans are miles higher above the lower 48 ((let's alter the rest of these)states)

This.  And they should do other sporting events as well.  That could attract users if marketed well.

[StanLarimer]

Just wondering, why do people around here refer Bernake as 'Helicopter Ben'?  Why Helicopter?

DEFINITION of 'Helicopter Drop'
A hypothetical, unconventional tool of monetary policy that involves printing large sums of money and distributing it to the public in order to stimulate the economy. Helicopter drop is largely a metaphor for unconventional measures to jumpstart the economy during deflationary periods. While “helicopter drop” was first mentioned by noted economist Milton Friedman, it gained popularity after Ben Bernanke made a passing reference to it in a November 2002 speech, when he was a new Federal Reserve governor. That single reference earned Bernanke the sobriquet of “Helicopter Ben,” a nickname that stayed with him during much of his tenure as a Fed member and Fed chairman.


Read more: Helicopter Drop Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/helicopter-drop.asp#ixzz3ybBGVPEC
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook

[Methodise]

Just wondering, why do people around here refer Bernake as 'Helicopter Ben'?  Why Helicopter?

DEFINITION of 'Helicopter Drop'
A hypothetical, unconventional tool of monetary policy that involves printing large sums of money and distributing it to the public in order to stimulate the economy. Helicopter drop is largely a metaphor for unconventional measures to jumpstart the economy during deflationary periods. While “helicopter drop” was first mentioned by noted economist Milton Friedman, it gained popularity after Ben Bernanke made a passing reference to it in a November 2002 speech, when he was a new Federal Reserve governor. That single reference earned Bernanke the sobriquet of “Helicopter Ben,” a nickname that stayed with him during much of his tenure as a Fed member and Fed chairman.


Read more: Helicopter Drop Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/helicopter-drop.asp#ixzz3ybBGVPEC
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook

Stan just beat me to it.

[HeliKopterBen]

Some Technical Analysis:

Crude has come back within the long-term range from 10 to 40.  Will it stay there is the question, especially with all the debasement of fiat currencies.




S&P 500 long-term uptrend still intact




Death Cross with bullish divergence and weekly support.  Will we see some range-bound consolidation here?  Iffy

[hcf27]

Ok, I am trying to figure this out, so who will provide the feed on december 2016?... what happens if the person doesnt enter the result or enters a wrong feed?

[HeliKopterBen]

Ok, I am trying to figure this out, so who will provide the feed on december 2016?... what happens if the person doesnt enter the result or enters a wrong feed?

Right now settlement is dependent upon the creator of the asset, so in that respect settlement is centralized.  Eventually, price feeds similar to smartcoin price feeds will allow for a completely decentralized solution.

The price feed is the median of many sources that are updated at least once per hour.

https://bitshares.org/technology/price-stable-cryptocurrencies/


If the asset is not settled correctly, then money will not be distributed correctly.  The market resolves to a condition of true or false, so it is pretty hard to get wrong, unless the creator is malicious. 

[pinkypower]

really like this, Openledger is amazing not sure if other coins have similar decentralize functions like this

[puppies]

There has been talk of moving the authority to close the market out to either the committee, or a committee owned account.  I think this gets rid of the last real weakness of bts prediction markets.  I'm hoping the asset issuer will convert them to a form of committee fed asset.

[Bisha]

There has been talk of moving the authority to close the market out to either the committee, or a committee owned account.  I think this gets rid of the last real weakness of bts prediction markets.  I'm hoping the asset issuer will convert them to a form of committee fed asset.

This is a good idea. It distributes the power over who provides the feeds. Committee members can be voted in or out by the shareholders too so everyone has a chance of putting up someone they trust or even themselves.

[puppies]

http://cryptofresh.com/b/3145319

[mathgal23]

Ok, I am trying to figure this out, so who will provide the feed on december 2016?... what happens if the person doesnt enter the result or enters a wrong feed?

Right now settlement is dependent upon the creator of the asset, so in that respect settlement is centralized.  Eventually, price feeds similar to smartcoin price feeds will allow for a completely decentralized solution.

I do not think this is safe to use until settlement becomes decentralized. Augur and Truthcoin are developing far better systems.

[puppies]

Ok, I am trying to figure this out, so who will provide the feed on december 2016?... what happens if the person doesnt enter the result or enters a wrong feed?

Right now settlement is dependent upon the creator of the asset, so in that respect settlement is centralized.  Eventually, price feeds similar to smartcoin price feeds will allow for a completely decentralized solution.

I do not think this is safe to use until settlement becomes decentralized. Augur and Truthcoin are developing far better systems.

Seems that the market creator is testing this approach out. SPORTS.SBLAFC has been set to a committee owned account, and the newest market.  BTSPREDICT is a committee fed account.  

In bitshares the committee is a multi sig account whose active permissions are voted on by all stake holders.  You could say that these two markets are now secured by the network.  

When it is time to close out the market a committee proposal will be made.  It will require 51% of the active authority of the committee account to close the market.  Even after 51% is achieved there is a minimum 1 hour review period during which misbehaving committee members can be voted out.

Edit.  SPFIVE and WTICRUDE are also now updated to committee fed assets.

[puppies]

so the world's first super bowl robot bookie is alive?

Kinda.  The network is not the house though.  The network just allows private parties to take bets in a trust free manor.

[HeliKopterBen]

How to gain synthetic leverage with bitshares binary options.

If the S&P 500 is trading at or near 1875, then the SPFIVE binary option should trade around 0.5 bts/SPFIVE as it would be considered ‘at the money’.  Of course the actual price is dependent on liquidity and market participants.  Suppose you take out a short position at 0.5 bts/SPFIVE and suppose the S&P 500 loses half its value to trade at 937.5 by October.  At that point, SPFIVE market participants would likely determine that the chances are very low that the S&P 500 would get back to 1875 and they would subsequently price the option very low.  Suppose you could then buy your SPFIVE back at 0.1 bts (or lower) to cover the short position you took at 0.5 bts/SPFIVE.  That gives you a gain of 80% using the binary option trade vs a 50% gain with a standard, non-leveraged short.  Holding the option until expiration will give you a 100% gain.  However, if the S&P 500 finishes above 1875 at the end of the year, then you lose 100% if you are still short any SPFIVE, but this risk profile is similar to any other kind of leveraged financial product.  The point is binary options are inherently more volatile than the underlying asset, giving traders synthetic leverage, especially as the contract gets closer to the expiration date.

Greeks are often used to gauge the theoretical values of options as derived from performance of the underlying asset and time constraints.  I don’t fully understand them and don’t use them personally as I don’t see the need but they are useful to many traders. 

[HeliKopterBen]

I do not think this is safe to use until settlement becomes decentralized. Augur and Truthcoin are developing far better systems.

Edit.  SPFIVE and WTICRUDE are also now updated to committee fed assets.

Nice.  Now sufficiently decentralized.

[HeliKopterBen]

Lets see if the correlation lasts

For nearly all of 2016 so far, the narrative has been that if you want to know which way stocks are going, just ask crude.

S&P 500 And Crude Oil Back On Track


We have had our first few trades now in WTICRUDE.  Check it out

[HeliKopterBen]

Futures down sharply this morning.  Both S&P 500 and oil testing lower support.

It is not just DB: as we have been warning for the past month, and especially last Friday, the blow out across the entire European bank sector is starting to resemble Lehman levels

Futures, Global Stocks Tumble As Europe Bank, Periphery Carnage Unfolds



The super bowl prediction market asset was successfully settled.  Check it out to get an idea of how these assets trade.http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPORTS.SBLAFC
Openledger