Moneypot just took a huge loss?

[Emerge]

It DID say
"Invest what you can afford to lose"

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[Game_Seller]

People forget the house doesn't always win when they invest.

[EngiNerd]

Wow, that was quite a hit. I had just decided yesterday not to divest Shoulda listened to my gut...

Variance can be a bitch, but investing in MoneyPot is still +EV (over an infinite amount of time) since you're backed by the house edge, but short terms losses can suck.

My congrats to the winner, and may he continue to gamble  

[maku]

Wow! Turns out that this guy: https://www.moneypot.com/users/moneypity won 55 btc on plinko. Impressive feat. He joined but a few hours ago. I joined multiple hours ago and i'm a couple of hundered thousands down...

Was this all legit win? Or it is another feat similar to HufflePuff exploiting the system? There is saying that the House always wins. And you see, that is not always true.
And it is a reminder: investing is not so different from gambling, you still can lose your money.

[Falconer]

Was this all legit win? Or it is another feat similar to HufflePuff exploiting the system? There is saying that the House always wins. And you see, that is not always true.
And it is a reminder: investing is not so different from gambling, you still can lose your money.

There has no confirmation yet from the new owner and since no one posted about withdrawal delay from moneypot then we can assume that the player has withdrawn some of its bitcoin already so it could be considered as a legit win. Someone won over 50 btc as well IIRC from dustdice but soon after that investor got its luck back

[cjmoles]

Eventually the house will always win. We all know that. The fact is that the house may be rigged, and then it might end up being profitable, after all...

This reminds of a funny story.  I was playing slots in an Indian casino and about 30 minutes into the game I hit a big jackpot.  At that very instant, guy's with cameras came popping up out of nowhere snapping pictures...bout knocked me off my stool they flew up so fast!  I remember thinking, "they must've set this up to promote the casino."  The kicker was that I didn't want my picture taken because I was supposed to be somewhere else...One never knows when they'll be the chosen one!  

Sometimes brick and mortar clubs loosen their slots for advertising equity. They eventually get it all back.

[panjul07]

Was this all legit win? Or it is another feat similar to HufflePuff exploiting the system? There is saying that the House always wins. And you see, that is not always true.
And it is a reminder: investing is not so different from gambling, you still can lose your money.

There has no confirmation yet from the new owner and since no one posted about withdrawal delay from moneypot then we can assume that the player has withdrawn some of its bitcoin already so it could be considered as a legit win. Someone won over 50 btc as well IIRC from dustdice but soon after that investor got its luck back

The owner has just confirmed regarding this big winning https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1140898.msg13715691#msg13715691 , he said "suspicious bets" means that he think there were something wrong on moneypity's bets. Lets wait for moneypot staff to investigate this..

[Rmcdermott927]

Was this all legit win? Or it is another feat similar to HufflePuff exploiting the system? There is saying that the House always wins. And you see, that is not always true.
And it is a reminder: investing is not so different from gambling, you still can lose your money.

There has no confirmation yet from the new owner and since no one posted about withdrawal delay from moneypot then we can assume that the player has withdrawn some of its bitcoin already so it could be considered as a legit win. Someone won over 50 btc as well IIRC from dustdice but soon after that investor got its luck back

The owner has just confirmed regarding this big winning https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1140898.msg13715691#msg13715691 , he said "suspicious bets" means that he think there were something wrong on moneypity's bets. Lets wait for moneypot staff to investigate this..

I had quotes around "suspicious" because several people in the MP thread were calling them that.    Until there is a investigation of the moneypot logs, no one knows if they were real, or if the guy was just insanely lucky.   I know the staff is looking at it though.

[actmyname]

...Will take at least a few months to recover...

Maybe.

Or maybe he'll give it all back and then some in the next 20 minutes.

If you had won such a big amount of bitcoins, would you return it?
I don't think so 

Gamblers who are addicted often end up continuing to play, even after they win a large amount. Even though he was able to get 16 grand off MoneyPot, the temptation to play may arise again and he could potentially lose it all. Emotion definitely affects you hard.

[kotwica666]

Wow! Nice hit!
I was always sure that the casino has to earn for themselves. It seems that not always ..
Do you know any more pages / casino where you can invest this way?

[onlinedragon]

Was this all legit win? Or it is another feat similar to HufflePuff exploiting the system? There is saying that the House always wins. And you see, that is not always true.
And it is a reminder: investing is not so different from gambling, you still can lose your money.

There has no confirmation yet from the new owner and since no one posted about withdrawal delay from moneypot then we can assume that the player has withdrawn some of its bitcoin already so it could be considered as a legit win. Someone won over 50 btc as well IIRC from dustdice but soon after that investor got its luck back

The owner has just confirmed regarding this big winning https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1140898.msg13715691#msg13715691 , he said "suspicious bets" means that he think there were something wrong on moneypity's bets. Lets wait for moneypot staff to investigate this..

I had quotes around "suspicious" because several people in the MP thread were calling them that.    Until there is a investigation of the moneypot logs, no one knows if they were real, or if the guy was just insanely lucky.   I know the staff is looking at it though.

I think all people who won such amount will be called suspicious and will be well checked. If it's fair won they they have to lower the max bet now there are some problems about the amount they lost.

[Indianacoin]

In general all plinko type games are really risky I guess.
Eventually as an average it will look as if the game is in favor of the house.

But in general they are too risky since nobody knows on which multiplier will a ball pot.

Btw can anyone send me the seed of that revolutionary bet?
Moneypot needs to detect whether its flawed or not.

[mtnsaa]

Moneypot seemed one of the only few sites where you could expect not to lose money but in Bitcoin all these sites usually scam you one way of another. I'm not implying they did it on purpose but something always happened, it's sad that Bitcoin always have this tainted image that is very true. It's just the problem of being unregulated.

To be clear, if you invest in a Casino, you shouldn't be losing money in the long run, there's actually no risk, the Casinos always win right!? So please explain why all these sites can't promise or guarantee at least some profit in the long run (I understand you can lose for some days due to a bad streak).

[KnightTrader]

If it's fair won they they have to lower the max bet

By my understanding that is pretty much automatic in MoneyPot and already lowered to respond current bankroll. Apps can have not updated info, but user get error message if bet is too high

[dooglus]

I had quotes around "suspicious" because several people in the MP thread were calling them that.    Until there is a investigation of the moneypot logs, no one knows if they were real, or if the guy was just insanely lucky.   I know the staff is looking at it though.

I just checked his bet history. He made almost all his profit from a single bet:

  https://www.moneypot.com/bets/18530298

The payout table was set to:

  121 47 13 5 3 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 3 5 13 47 121

and he hit the 121x

He bet 400k bits and so made a profit of 48 BTC.

When I set up the payout table like that myself it tells me the max bet is around 9k bits, so I don't understand why this bet was allowed to go ahead.

 

This is in agreement with the moneypot FAQ, which says:

 

I never looked in detail at how the kelly criterion works when there are multiple mutually exclusive outcomes like in the case of plinko bets; maybe it says we should risk this much. Could someone look into it and see?

[EngiNerd]

I just checked his bet history. He made almost all his profit from a single bet:

  https://www.moneypot.com/bets/18530298

The payout table was set to:

  121 47 13 5 3 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 3 5 13 47 121

and he hit the 121x

He bet 400k bits and so made a profit of 48 BTC.

When I set up the payout table like that myself it tells me the max bet is around 9k bits, so I don't understand why this bet was allowed to go ahead.

  [/snip]

This is in agreement with the moneypot FAQ, which says:

  [/snip]

I never looked in detail at how the kelly criterion works when there are multiple mutually exclusive outcomes like in the case of plinko bets; maybe it says we should risk this much. Could someone look into it and see?

That is really interesting...nice work dooglus. I'm assuming the max bet would be lower now after such a huge loss, but it wouldn't have dropped from 400k to 9k on that line.

[yahoo62278]

I just checked his bet history. He made almost all his profit from a single bet:

  https://www.moneypot.com/bets/18530298

The payout table was set to:

  121 47 13 5 3 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 3 5 13 47 121

and he hit the 121x

He bet 400k bits and so made a profit of 48 BTC.

When I set up the payout table like that myself it tells me the max bet is around 9k bits, so I don't understand why this bet was allowed to go ahead.

  [/snip]

This is in agreement with the moneypot FAQ, which says:

  [/snip]

I never looked in detail at how the kelly criterion works when there are multiple mutually exclusive outcomes like in the case of plinko bets; maybe it says we should risk this much. Could someone look into it and see?

That is really interesting...nice work dooglus. I'm assuming the max bet would be lower now after such a huge loss, but it wouldn't have dropped from 400k to 9k on that line.

he is saying that the 400k bet should have never played in the 1st place

[RHavar]

When I set up the payout table like that myself it tells me the max bet is around 9k bits, so I don't understand why this bet was allowed to go ahead.

 

That's definitely a huge underestimate. The max bet should be considerably larger.

Although, I'm quite surprised it would allow 0.4 BTC bet -- that seems a bit much to me.  By any chance, did the owners of MoneyPot.com change the bankroll risk to a 10x kelly?


If anyone wants a worked example of figuring out the max bet for a normal kelly the maths is this:
http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/662104/kelly-criterion-with-more-than-two-outcomes

If no one else does it, i'll go through it for that bet and see what it should be

[TwitchySeal]

Within Kelly? 

This is after the bankroll took big hit from 121x

Outside paid 29,900,000

The max bet fluctuates constantly right?


Wager: 9,997,748 bits

Profit: +999,774.80 bits

Investor Profit: -1000417.2563276 bits

App Dev Profit: 642.456327602647 bits

House Edge: 0.96%

https://www.moneypot.com/bets/18559115

[RHavar]

If no one else does it, i'll go through it for that bet and see what it should be

My (untested) calculations:

The kelly for that bet is a staggering 0.353028752 (aka the house should risk 35% of it's bankroll)?! wtf?

Seems rather unintuitive, and likely I made a mistake (and possibly twice, once when first writing the generalize kelly code).

Most of the work is in inverting the bet to be from the houses perspective, so here's what I came up with if it is of any help to anyone:

Code:

     { profit: -4800000000, probability: 0.0000152587890625 },
     { profit: -1840000000, probability: 0.000244140625 },
     { profit: -480000000, probability: 0.0018310546875 },
     { profit: -160000000, probability: 0.008544921875 },
     { profit: -80000000, probability: 0.02777099609375 },
     { profit: -16000000, probability: 0.066650390625 },
     { profit: -0, probability: 0.1221923828125 },
     { profit: 20000000, probability: 0.174560546875 },
     { profit: 28000000, probability: 0.196380615234375 },
     { profit: 20000000, probability: 0.174560546875 },
     { profit: -0, probability: 0.1221923828125 },
     { profit: -16000000, probability: 0.066650390625 },
     { profit: -80000000, probability: 0.02777099609375 },
     { profit: -160000000, probability: 0.008544921875 },
     { profit: -480000000, probability: 0.0018310546875 },
     { profit: -1840000000, probability: 0.000244140625 },
     { profit: -4800000000, probability: 0.0000152587890625 }