I just made a free NFL Playoffs "Stock Market" Pool with 30 BTC in prizes!

[joshbb]

Heya!

It's been a while, but I just had to make a new NFL playoff pool over at http://www.bitmadness.com/ in honor of the Redskins qualifying!

Here's how it works:

 You start out with $1,000 in your bankroll. Each Monday of the playoffs you get an additional $1,000.
 You place offers to buy and sell "shares" of various game outcomes (e.g. home team wins, game goes to overtime..).
 You can trade shares at any time until a game ends, even (especially) during the game!
 Once a game ends, shares in a successful outcome are worth $1, unsuccessful outcomes are worth nada.
 The winner is whomever has the highest bankroll after the Super Bowl, which the Redskins will win.

Make sense? No? Good! It's pretty nerdy.

Sign up now for the free pool to win up to 30 BTC at:
http://www.bitmadness.com/pool.php?g=XSUS6U25

And/or make your own at:
http://www.bitmadness.com/newnflmarket.php

Consider inviting your friends to the free pool.. if only because you get 10% of whatever they win!

josh!

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Heya!

It's been a while, but I just had to make a new NFL playoff pool over at http://www.bitmadness.com/ in honor of the Redskins qualifying!

Here's how it works:

 You start out with $1,000 in your bankroll. Each Monday of the playoffs you get an additional $1,000.
 You place offers to buy and sell "shares" of various game outcomes (e.g. home team wins, game goes to overtime..).
 You can trade shares at any time until a game ends, even (especially) during the game!
 Once a game ends, shares in a successful outcome are worth $1, unsuccessful outcomes are worth nada.
 The winner is whomever has the highest bankroll after the Super Bowl, which the Redskins will win.

Make sense? No? Good! It's pretty nerdy.

Sign up now for the free pool to win up to 30 BTC at:
http://www.bitmadness.com/pool.php?g=XSUS6U25

And/or make your own at:
http://www.bitmadness.com/newnflmarket.php

Consider inviting your friends to the free pool.. if only because you get 10% of whatever they win!

josh!

If I did the math correctly, if I created 2¹¹ accounts, would I guarantee myself a perfect score for one of the accounts? Moreover, I have 6.26% chance of correctly picking the wildcard winners, thus only needing to create 128 actual accounts to guarantee myself a perfect ticket. Is that last statement correct?

[joshbb]

I think you may have done the math correctly, but for a different problem entirely! 

This is a futures stock market.. you can get all the right picks, but if you pay more for them than somebody else, you'll end up with less money than them and still lose!

[Phinnaeus Gage]

I think you may have done the math correctly, but for a different problem entirely!  

This is a futures stock market.. you can get all the right picks, but if you pay more for them than somebody else, you'll end up with less money than them and still lose!

I believe that with with the use of game theory, there's a way to get a mathematical edge with the way it's currently laid out.

EDIT: I get it now! I thought this was the person with the most wins, wins the entire pool.

[CurbsideProphet]

Cool, I'm in!

[theymos]

How are shares distributed initially?

[theymos]

Why is there no plain "Home team loses"?

[joshbb]

If you want to bet against any of props, you just "sell" it... and this allows you to short if you don't currently have any shares, which also solves the problem of how shares are distributed initially... they're not!