BitBet open beta.

[MPOE-PR]

Introducing BitBet, the Bitcoin betting site. (There's also an FAQ.)

Chief points:

Site will be listed on MPEx, under the ticker S.BBET. You can read all the details there, but basically it's an equal partnership between MP & Matic Kočevar (aka kakobrekla). The IPO will start Friday, January 11th at 0:00 GMT, with a 10,000 share block (0.1%) asking 1000 satoshi per share. Each time a block is sold out a new one of equal size will be placed at a price 3% higher (rounded upwards). Once 300 such blocks have placed the IPO is complete.

Leading affiliate system. To quote from the FAQ,

Could I become an affiliate?

Sure. Simply send traffic to any link on bitbet.us adding ?ref=1YourBtcAddress at the end of the link. You will be credited 1% of all deposits made by anyone you refer for 30 days (normal cookie identification).

Add links to bets in your forum signatures, blog articles, wherever and get the BTC straight to your wallet.

You make BTC just by submitting acceptable bets. Each new bet has a 0.1 (or more) BTC betting pool which upon approval will be split between Yes and No sides. You are automatically allocated the smaller side (as an incentive to make balanced bets). This way, every time a bet you proposed is closed you earn some BTC. Please review the FAQ and only submit meaningful, interesting bets.

Any questions? Ask away!

[1714822080]

1714822080

[1714822080]

1714822080

[1714822080]

1714822080

[Bugpowder]

Introducing BitBet, the Bitcoin betting site. (There's also an FAQ.)

Chief points:

Site will be listed on MPEx, under the ticker S.BBET. You can read all the details there, but basically it's an equal partnership between MP & Matic Kočevar (aka kakobrekla). The IPO will start Friday, January 11th at 0:00 GMT, with a 10,000 share block (0.1%) asking 1000 satoshi per share. Each time a block is sold out a new one of equal size will be placed at a price 3% higher (rounded upwards). Once 300 such blocks have placed the IPO is complete.

Can you be more specific as to how the IPO share allocation will work with respect to buy orders placed before Jan 11?  Is it based on time of order placement priority, proportional distribution to all valid orders, lotto system?

i.e, does the first person who placed a buy order for 10,000 shares @ 1000 satoshi / share get 100% of the first block allocation?  Or do all orders in before Jan 11 that are >= 1000 satoshi / share get a weighted proportion of the first block allocation?  What about the second block?  

[MPOE-PR]

Can you be more specific as to how the IPO share allocation will work with respect to buy orders placed before Jan 11?  Is it based on time of order placement priority, proportional distribution to all valid orders, lotto system?

i.e, does the first person who placed a buy order for 10,000 shares @ 1000 satoshi / share get 100% of the first block allocation?  Or do all orders in before Jan 11 that are >= 1000 satoshi / share get a weighted proportion of the first block allocation?  What about the second block?  

Neither. On the 11th when IPO starts, shares will be sold into the highest block of bids, and this will continue until morale improves.

(I mean, until the price offered on the bid side is lower than the price of the block then current on the ask side).

[Third Way]

1000 Satoshi is...?

BTC0.001???

[Bombolo]

1 Satoshi is 0,00000001 BTC

1000 Satoshis is 0,0001 BTC

[JordanL]

Oh great, as if I didn't already waste enough of my work days gambling.

[MPOE-PR]

1 Satoshi is 0,00000001 BTC

1000 Satoshis is 0,0001 BTC

Curious if this will result in complaints that shares are being sold too cheap, to go with the complaints about S.DICE being too expensive at 32 or w/e it was back in August.

Oh great, as if I didn't already waste enough of my work days gambling.

Don't work your gamble I mean gamble your workday away!

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

BitBet is like NakaBot trying to get into the established market of SatoshiDICE.

In other words, it's going to fail.

[MPOE-PR]

Last minute release, some financials etc. IPO to start in about one hour.

[kjj]

You should really get the financial statements and releases marked as free articles so that people can read more than a few of them each week.

Interesting IPO, by the way.  It was pretty obvious which guys had done their math up front, but I wasn't expecting it to get anywhere near 1.03¹⁷⁷.

[MPOE-PR]

You should really get the financial statements and releases marked as free articles so that people can read more than a few of them each week.

Interesting IPO, by the way.  It was pretty obvious which guys had done their math up front, but I wasn't expecting it to get anywhere near 1.03¹⁷⁷.

I don't think anyone did. At least not as far as I know.

Anyway: Trilema allows five free reads a week. In general this should be enough for anyone to read such announcements for free (in the average month there's the MPOE statement, that's one, and possibly a couple others such as an IPO, some tech announcement, w/e). Obviously if you use those free credits to read something else you're on the hook, but it's not really proper to say you're being asked to pay for the announcements.

BitBet is like NakaBot trying to get into the established market of SatoshiDICE.

In other words, it's going to fail.

Why are you so invested in this, anyway?

[kjj]

You should really get the financial statements and releases marked as free articles so that people can read more than a few of them each week.

Interesting IPO, by the way.  It was pretty obvious which guys had done their math up front, but I wasn't expecting it to get anywhere near 1.03¹⁷⁷.

I don't think anyone did. At least not as far as I know.

Anyway: Trilema allows five free reads a week. In general this should be enough for anyone to read such announcements for free (in the average month there's the MPOE statement, that's one, and possibly a couple others such as an IPO, some tech announcement, w/e). Obviously if you use those free credits to read something else you're on the hook, but it's not really proper to say you're being asked to pay for the announcements.

I made the mistake of reading some old financial statements this week.  I guess from now on, I'll just have to make copies of them.  I thought about paying a buck for 1000 credits, but I can't find any mention anywhere of how many credits each article costs.

[Bugpowder]

You should really get the financial statements and releases marked as free articles so that people can read more than a few of them each week.

Interesting IPO, by the way.  It was pretty obvious which guys had done their math up front, but I wasn't expecting it to get anywhere near 1.03¹⁷⁷.

I don't think anyone did. At least not as far as I know.

Anyway: Trilema allows five free reads a week. In general this should be enough for anyone to read such announcements for free (in the average month there's the MPOE statement, that's one, and possibly a couple others such as an IPO, some tech announcement, w/e). Obviously if you use those free credits to read something else you're on the hook, but it's not really proper to say you're being asked to pay for the announcements.

I made the mistake of reading some old financial statements this week.  I guess from now on, I'll just have to make copies of them.  I thought about paying a buck for 1000 credits, but I can't find any mention anywhere of how many credits each article costs.

1 per article
 I finally caved an bought some credits with my bitbet winnings.

[MPOE-PR]

I made the mistake of reading some old financial statements this week.  I guess from now on, I'll just have to make copies of them.  I thought about paying a buck for 1000 credits, but I can't find any mention anywhere of how many credits each article costs.

One. I guess it's a little odd that this should be mentioned specifically, but each read costs one credit.

[exxe]

XSS vulnerabilities in the search function. Just saying ...

[MPOE-PR]

XSS vulnerabilities in the search function. Just saying ...

Trilema has a search function?!

[exxe]

XSS vulnerabilities in the search function. Just saying ...

Trilema has a search function?!

http://bitbet.us

Edit: Oh you already fixed it. You're welcome  

[MPOE-PR]

http://bitbet.us

Edit: Oh you already fixed it. You're welcome  

Twas not me, but:

aha the html break in certian conditions and thats it
js doesnt run
ill fix that in oneliner
there

Possibly worth pointing out that since bitbet doesn't have accounts there's not much value in an XSS exploit even if something did work.

All that aside, your find is appreciated, well done and thank you! Should you wish to bet 1 BTC on something on the house, pm me the address.

[cosurgi]

(There's also an FAQ.)

What is a bet's weight?
The earlier you bet the more of the total pot you will win in case your side prevails.

What formula do you actually use?

Let's say that I won a bet. I placed A bitcoins on this bet, and the total bitcoins placed on my side was A_sum. The total sum was B bitcoins (the opposite bet was C_sum = B-A_sum bitcoins), and I placed this bet at percentage of time left till end equal to T, expressed as: T= 100%=1.0 is when bet starts, and T=0%=0.0 is when bet ends.

Then what is my reward?

R(A,B,T)= ?


EDIT: question2: how could you possibly not run bitcoind on the server, when you need to make payments back (private key is necessary for that).

[kakobrekla]

(There's also an FAQ.)

What is a bet's weight?
The earlier you bet the more of the total pot you will win in case your side prevails.

What formula do you actually use?

Let's say that I won a bet. I placed A bitcoins on this bet, and the total bitcoins placed on my side was A_sum. The total sum was B bitcoins (the opposite bet was C_sum = B-A_sum bitcoins), and I placed this bet at percentage of time left till end equal to T, expressed as: T= 100%=1.0 is when bet starts, and T=0%=0.0 is when bet ends.

Then what is my reward?

R(A,B,T)= ?

Explained here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=147914.msg1572084#msg1572084

Or in other words, the losers side is split between the winners by coin*weight from which 1% house fee is taken.

EDIT: question2: how could you possibly not run bitcoind on the server, when you need to make payments back (private key is necessary for that).

The site will generate a sendmany command which is used on another computer where the funds are at. Thats why payments are not instant and take a bit to be done.

[cosurgi]

(There's also an FAQ.)

What is a bet's weight?
The earlier you bet the more of the total pot you will win in case your side prevails.

What formula do you actually use?

Let's say that I won a bet. I placed A bitcoins on this bet, and the total bitcoins placed on my side was A_sum. The total sum was B bitcoins (the opposite bet was C_sum = B-A_sum bitcoins), and I placed this bet at percentage of time left till end equal to T, expressed as: T= 100%=1.0 is when bet starts, and T=0%=0.0 is when bet ends.

Then what is my reward?

R(A,B,T)= ?

Explained here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=147914.msg1572084#msg1572084

Or in other words, the losers side is split between the winners by coin*weight from which 1% house fee is taken.

It's only explained qualitatively. I am asking about exact formula used.

For example this one formula is NOT used, even though that's what you are suggesting:

Reward = TOTAL * 0.99 * MY_BET * WEIGHT / Sum_all(winning_bets * WEIGHT)

The formula which I found to ALMOST match the results is:

Reward = TOTAL * 0.99 * MY_BET * WEIGHT^(1/3.5) / Sum_all(winning_bets * WEIGHT^(1/3.5))

Where "^(1/3.5)" means raised to power (1/3.5). This formula however becomes increasingly wrong for WEIGHT smaller than 10000.

So what is the formula?


EDIT: I found a formula which is almost correct for WEIGHT > 3000, it is:

Reward = TOTAL * 0.99 * MY_BET * SQRT(LOG(WEIGHT))*WEIGHT^(1/6.0) / Sum_all(winning_bets * SQRT(LOG(WEIGHT))*WEIGHT^(1/6.0))

But I am still asking what is the formula actually used.

[kakobrekla]

(BetAmount + (LosersBtcSum / WinnersWeightedBtcSum)  * ( BetAmount *  BetWeight ) )*0.99

[cosurgi]

(BetAmount + (LosersBtcSum / WinnersWeightedBtcSum)  * ( BetAmount *  BetWeight ) )*0.99

Thanks, it agrees perfectly. Using my notation, that would be:

Reward = 0.99 * (MY_BET + LOSERS * MY_BET*WEIGHT/Sum_all(winning_bets * WEIGHT) )

EDIT: if you change the formula, please let me know https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=147914.msg1576743#msg1576743

EDIT: so that winning bets do not lose money:
BetAmount + ((LosersBtcSum / WinnersWeightedBtcSum)  * ( BetAmount *  BetWeight ) )*0.99 or 0.98

[Monster Tent]

Under .US nexus requirements .US domains may be registered only by the following qualified entities:
Any United States citizen or resident,
Any United States entity, such as organizations or corporations,
Any foreign entity or organization with a bona fide presence in the United States

As you are located in Romania how can you possibly use a .us domain ?

[MPOE-PR]

Under .US nexus requirements .US domains may be registered only by the following qualified entities:
Any United States citizen or resident,
Any United States entity, such as organizations or corporations,
Any foreign entity or organization with a bona fide presence in the United States

As you are located in Romania how can you possibly use a .us domain ?

I fail to find the "CANNOT BE LOCATED IN ROMANIA" clause in your quote. Why do you find thinking so difficult?

[MPOE-PR]

BitBet FAQ updated.

[MPOE-PR]

Since its beginning BitBet has been tolerant of bets placed following an event that effectively ends the bet, refunding all such late wagers upon resolution. This policy was intended to be forgiving of the occasional errant bettor who might not've noticed that a currency had already traded at a certain price, that a verdict had just been read in a court case, or who had otherwise just missed a cutoff.

As users have gradually shown over time and have exemplified in the extreme today, BitBet's tolerance is taken for a chance to swindle the operators and legitimate users by spamming bets after the resolution criteria has been met.

Henceforth, and in the interest of fairness and uniformity, all wagers received, whether refunded or not, will be subject to the same 1% fee.

The FAQ will be updated presently to the same effect.

[globalvillage]

Ha Ha Ha  legitimate affiliate for bits, LOL

[kokojie]

I think the bet approver need to take note of the "close date" not too close to the event resolve date, fore example (this is a real bet on the site currently):

A bet that is: Bitcoin difficulty will fall in 2014, and close date is... 2014-12-15

This is not good, since any big bettor can just wait until the last minute to make sure difficulty will not fall, and bet big to compensate for weight.

A sensible close date should be something like 2014-10-01, so that there's 3 full months of uncertainty, and will not be unfair to the early bettors.