Trading Club: / Forex / Commondities / Indicies / Stocks / - Ideas & Speculation

[TReano]

Check out whaleclub.co. They have a live stream of technical analysis on their ideas page for BTC and forex.

And they have trading of gold, oil, EURUSD, BTCUSD with your bitcoin directly. They don't convert to fiat like other brokers do.

I've tried sfx and 1broker, they are not bad but the spreads go up way too much when there is volatility I have no way to make money. Switching over to Whaleclub, their spreads are fixed.

Plus: I have made a total of 0.08BTC with the SFX affiliate program in over 1 year lol.

Whaleclub has an affiliate program that pays 50% commission. Just started out last week. Current referred: 7 users | 0.56BTC which seems like a better deal to me... I just think more people ought to know about Whaleclub because it's run by pros instead of using amateur platforms. They don't advertise much on this forum.

Fixed spreads do not represent the real market. Whale Club is likely just making money by the loses of their customers and not by actually placing their trades. Fixed spreads is a strong indication for that.

It's not a bad idea thought. It's not like they are scamming you. They will just eventually get into liquidity problems if they have a lot of really big and good traders on their platform which I doubt. Since more people will lose their money then other people actually making money. Even bigger traditional broker do this "trading against their customers".

[TReano]

"Forex Trading Video: Dollar Burns After NFPs Scourge Fed Forecasts, But SPX the Target "
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZqXPp1hEeY



Very good in deep analyses on the US-Dollar especially with now with the big Nonfarm Payroll miss from last Friday.
The S&P-500 hold is also really interesting...

Also the Brexit Situation is going to be really interesting in the next couple days. I guess the GBP should be a short overall. Especially the EUR/GBP pair looks really bullish.


Any special pairs you guys have an eye on for the next week? I already took profits on EU last week before the closing.

[Pseudo-Random]

Also the Brexit Situation is going to be really interesting in the next couple days. I guess the GBP should be a short overall. Especially the EUR/GBP pair looks really bullish.

..What? Brexit Referendum is June 23, not ~June 6-9 lol.

But of course newspapers' polls constantly make headlines during the weeks prior, and this causes spikes in both directions as banks/traders panic & double-guess ; Agreed that GBP pairs should be a Sell on the pound until $1.40 and with some cautious long's under that level.

--------------------

The biggest problem w/ the typical goldbugs' & bitcoin maximalists' theories, for one thing, is the idea that the US is dying.

That's the eternal wet dream of ZeroHedge.com goldbug taxi driver AM radio mentalities ;^  However, the most powerful major economic & military-political powers in the modern world aren't susceptible to rampant hyperinflation bubbles like Zimbabwe or 1920's Weimar Germany were.

Truth is, in order for USD to crash, something else really powerful & important (in GDP) elsewhere in the world, must be doing SO WELL in contrast.

The problem is, simply, there is no such major economic bloc right now that can provide this contrast.

China's problems are deep, structural, and it's not just that its been trying to switch painfully from a spammy wasteful industrial overproduction export-driven economy, to a domestic services-based one ; It's the incredible amount of debt, bad credit, pollution & waste it accumulated in the process.

The EU, our favorite subject - is not doing any better, as you ought to know. From Brexit, Frexit, Grexit & Spexit, to the Mideast Migrant crisis, to Russia's aggression and the european debt, economic & inflation/deflation problems ; The EU Commissioners' & Mario Draghi et al.'s jobs aren't made easy, for sure.

And of course, Russia, Japan, Brazil, Africa, Mexico, are so far up shit creek, it doesn't even need mentioning. Even AU & CA aren't in roses.

So, which major world economy is going to be doing so well for its equities & currency to be 'owning' the US dollar, then..?

There is none.

It's not that the US is doing good.

It's that everyone else isn't doing much better at all.

[TReano]

Also the Brexit Situation is going to be really interesting in the next couple days. I guess the GBP should be a short overall. Especially the EUR/GBP pair looks really bullish.

..What? Brexit Referendum is June 23, not ~June 6-9 lol.

But of course newspapers' polls constantly make headlines during the weeks prior, and this causes spikes in both directions as banks/traders panic & double-guess ; Agreed that GBP pairs should be a Sell on the pound until $1.40 and with some cautious long's under that level.

I meant that the majority of the a movement often happens before a predictable event. And as it seems the leave voters are far ahead now.
Maybe this is even going to be a typical sell/buy the news event in the end. It's going to be really interesting how the stock market and especially the GBP crosses are going to behave around the event. I think it's quiet possible that we will have big dump before/during the vote and that's going to print a major low you can work with for a longer term bullish trend. But the volatility could get really ugly.


-------

The biggest problem w/ the typical goldbugs' & bitcoin maximalists' theories, for one thing, is the idea that the US is dying.

That's the eternal wet dream of ZeroHedge.com goldbug taxi driver AM radio mentalities ;^  However, the most powerful major economic & military-political powers in the modern world aren't susceptible to rampant hyperinflation bubbles like Zimbabwe or 1920's Weimar Germany were.

Truth is, in order for USD to crash, something else really powerful & important (in GDP) elsewhere in the world, must be doing SO WELL in contrast.

The problem is, simply, there is no such major economic bloc right now that can provide this contrast.

China's problems are deep, structural, and it's not just that its been trying to switch painfully from a spammy wasteful industrial overproduction export-driven economy, to a domestic services-based one ; It's the incredible amount of debt, bad credit, pollution & waste it accumulated in the process.

The EU, our favorite subject - is not doing any better, as you ought to know. From Brexit, Frexit, Grexit & Spexit, to the Mideast Migrant crisis, to Russia's aggression and the european debt, economic & inflation/deflation problems ; The EU Commissioners' & Mario Draghi et al.'s jobs aren't made easy, for sure.

And of course, Russia, Japan, Brazil, Africa, Mexico, are so far up shit creek, it doesn't even need mentioning. Even AU & CA aren't in roses.

So, which major world economy is going to be doing so well for its equities & currency to be 'owning' the US dollar, then..?

There is none.

Yes the Market is really complicated right now. The US is doing the best out of all developed countries recently. China has problems but there is still a of potential. While on the other hand Europe and especially Japan face major major problems in several levels. Starting with debt, deflation(the ECB is not even expecting to hit their target in the next 2 years), aging society and therefor the upcoming pension problem(Who is going to pay for the old people). Etc. On top the EU is politicly speaking very unstable. The media is trying everything to keep the EU alive but I don't think the people are that stupid.

also keep in mind: The east wants step away from the USD. This is going to be also a major issue in the future but not right now.


But I agree with you. Even thought all the Central Banks around the world have a race to the bottom (beside the US and maybe GB). We don't see any real inflation anywhere. Since the markets are relative positioned to each other the result of all the 0% interest rate and big QE programs is not inflation but deflation. all the Gold/Bitcoin Gurus won't be able to understand this. They are all talking about hyper inflation since I can remember. Maybe they will be right some day but not in the near future.

[TReano]

Risk Aversion kicking in. The BoJ ignited these moves today by not doing anything.

Japanese Yen and the US Dollar are murdering every other pair right now. Especially the Yen is super strong.


Crazy volatile times across all markets right now. Amazing time to trade overall. Also Bitcoin still on bull fire.

[DeathProxyX]

I think that the safest way to invest in this days is to hold not less than 50% of free lequidity and try to scalp index and currency with other 50%.

*Whant to earn by forex, PM me!

[TReano]

Remarkable volatility across all markets. Unbelievable good times to trade.

Even thought the polls were 50:50 before the Brexit Vote on Thursday the market got caught completely on the wrong side, explaning the giant Market moves in the FX market. Indices and Stock markets didn't had these record moves thought. But there is much more to come.


A lot of professional Forex-traders who where around in 2008 said this market crash reminds them a lot to the initial Lehman brothers crash. Just more violent. So expect this to be the beginning of a market shift... (Risikoaversion is kicking in hard)

As an advice: Don't try to call/pick bottoms or tops in this market situation. Don't play the hero, be a fish in the world of banks and hedge funds. A lot of hedge funds lost a lot of money on this Brexit poll... So be ready. This is just like 2008 all over again. Brexit was just the lighter igniting the fire again. Netherlands,Italy even France will have deeper discussions to leave the Euro zone as well.

This could very well become the big market crash a lot of traders and especially Bitcoins have been waiting for. But the Bitcoin reaction to the Brexit move is not existing sadly. Not even the trading volume in GBP has notably increased. Maybe the Leave decision was the right decision in the end of the day.

[TReano]

Also:

A really good analyse and a really good Overview of the current Situation at the Forex / stock market by John Kicklighter.


Strategy Video: Has Brexit Finally Tipped Global Risk Aversion? from Friday night.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rhuaBdhvOQ

[TReano]

EU - Potential short entry -

All the Brexit things caused some big uncertainty in the EU. Other country may follow the example with a referendum. Since there worst thing for a market is uncertainty this should create some nice downside pressure.

On top the ECB is getting more and more desperate pumping cheap money into the market to weaken the Euro even more aggressive. The effects of it will likely cause a lot of volatility but I remain sceptical of the success of further easing desperation moves in the end of the day.



This short entry would give us a good risk reward ratio. But a weak dollar is also possible which would make the Euro rally really hard coming to the end of the week, especially with the upcoming NFP data. Also the SSI shows retail traders are net short EU which would favor a topside target for now. But for a long play it's too late to get a good risk reward ratio at this point.

[Totalreturnfund]

EU - Potential short entry -

All the Brexit things caused some big uncertainty in the EU. Other country may follow the example with a referendum. Since there worst thing for a market is uncertainty this should create some nice downside pressure.

On top the ECB is getting more and more desperate pumping cheap money into the market to weaken the Euro even more aggressive. The effects of it will likely cause a lot of volatility but I remain sceptical of the success of further easing desperation moves in the end of the day.



This short entry would give us a good risk reward ratio. But a weak dollar is also possible which would make the Euro rally really hard coming to the end of the week, especially with the upcoming NFP data. Also the SSI shows retail traders are net short EU which would favor a topside target for now. But for a long play it's too late to get a good risk reward ratio at this point.

You use FORK for trading? Good 

[TReano]

You use FORK for trading? Good  

Yes I do often use pitch forks for daily/4h charts since they predict the price channel pretty well most of the time.

[Totalreturnfund]

You use FORK for trading? Good  

Yes I do often use pitch forks for daily/4h charts since they predict the price channel pretty well most of the time.

Yes, they work well on 1h too! I uselly use Dephic Phenomenon for open position too 

[TReano]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/AkSDZj6g-EU-Potential-Short-entry/

Entered the trade on the wick. I was lucky to see it spiking up thought.

This could even develop into a longer term trade. I don't think we will revisit this area soon. Especially of the NFP on Friday do not shock like last time.

[TReano]

EUR/USD: Moving a bit slow. Might take longer then expected to develop. USD/JPY would have been the faster and better trade looking back as a trend trade.


Also short scalped GBP/USD over this week a lot. Worked out greatly so far. But I don't find any mid term trades attractiv regarding the GBP. Could spike up and down a lot.

[hermanhs09]

Guys what do you thing about kind of mid term EURUSD? im still short on it,did a medium position,
i still wait for the break but im expecting it to go down a little but.
Can you share any insights?

[TReano]

Guys what do you thing about kind of mid term EURUSD? im still short on it,did a medium position,
i still wait for the break but im expecting it to go down a little but.
Can you share any insights?

depending where you entered. You can just share a chart via TradingView with us, so we can help you with your expectations. You could show your targets and we can tell you if they are reasonable and so on.


It can sometimes be hard to keep a position which is well in profits. But Euro/Usd has a lot of potential downside. Also keep in mind the non farm payrolls at US open tomorrow. If they miss again drastically Euro/usd could rally really really hard.


Regarding the Nonfarm payroll (NFP). It's the most volatile and quiet important Economic data out there.

 

You can find the Economic Calender here:

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Actual: 287k
forecast: 178k
Last: 38k


Good Numbers. But Markets reaction is not that euphoric.

If they miss big again like last time we could see a big market shift.

[TReano]

New Week.

Not Setups I am specifically looking for yet.

[Totalreturnfund]

New Week.

Not Setups I am specifically looking for yet.

1) Cable go to test low near 1.286, then if lose this next level seems 1.25
2) Eur\Usd is near to lose 1.10 . So 1.08 could be next step.
3) Usd\Jpy seems strong this morning, but i expect a test @100

 

[yudy]

what is your indicator trading stategy ?
you can share your use indicator and stategy placed sell or buy

[TReano]

New Week.

Not Setups I am specifically looking for yet.

1) Cable go to test low near 1.286, then if lose this next level seems 1.25
2) Eur\Usd is near to lose 1.10 . So 1.08 could be next step.
3) Usd\Jpy seems strong this morning, but i expect a test @100

 

1) I am not involved in Cable yet. Still too much news which can throw it one or another way. Also Hard to call in my opinion.
2) Already have a euro short running. Posted it here in the thread last week: -> https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/AkSDZj6g-EU-Potential-Short-entry/
           Planing to keep it for a few weeks, as long as it doesn't break to the upside at some point.-
3.) Yes Usd\Jpy got a lot of momentum after the election in Japan on the Weekend. I took a few small scalps on the retest of the fibs. But nothing major.



I also took a S&P500 long after it broke the all-time high. lets see how far I can ride it.
Further I am looking for a Silver entry. The Potential upside is crazy on the longer term.