Is this purchase worth it?

[Phalanx]

Hello all! I know I am new but looking for some decent discussion and opinions.

I am living in residence at university. I get a very high down/up (I know this means pretty much nothing), I also get "free" water and electricity. My current rig will bring in approx. $3.5 CAD or USD per week in my current pool. (Around 200-400 Mhash/s)

Specs of my current mining computer:
sabertooth 990fx (motherboard)
16gb DDR3 1600 Corsair Vengence (RAM)
1100T AMD Phenom II X6 1100T Black Edition 3.3GHz, 3.7GHz Turbo Socket AM3 (CPU)
Radeon HD 6950 2 GB (Graphics Card)

PSU and Harddrive and MISC is not going to be listed unless requested.

Finally here is my question!
I am looking into purchasing the ASIC (butterflylabs) BitForce Jalapeno. Is it worth it? Would this be worth adding to my rig? I use this computer for multiple things. I do however have other PCs and laptops but this is my main gaming computer (nothing too intensive anymore) and "social" computer. What is your thoughts? How long do you think it would take before I would see my return from this ASIC investment? What do you think my approx. weekly gain in Bitcoins or USD/CAD would be? I live in Canada so purchasing this would cost approx. BTC12.07 or $163 USD/CAD (this includes even shipping).

Thanks guys! Im excited to see some responses!
--Cheers!--

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[Lethn]

I wouldn't mine Bitcoins purely for profit because it just isn't consistently profitable like real work would be if you look at the general math and I wouldn't get ASIC's until they're actually released because the pre-orders seem like a scam to me and the reasoning behind it all is a bit flimsy in my view. If you're going to get into Bitcoin, have an alternative plan so make sure you can use the computer for something else other than mining because otherwise you'll just waist money, it looks like a pretty acceptable gaming computer as well as other things though.

[Phalanx]

Im currently mining it for the sake of mining it (but I know my stats and general "income." However if I put a purchase of $160 straight for bitcoin mining I would like to see that return, as im sure you'd know. Thanks for the input mate! It was a solid gaming computer (purchased all the parts and built it over a year ago so its starting to lack) and am interested in throwing more into it.

[mjc]

You'll have to decide for yourself if the ASIC is a scam or not.  I have three BFL ASIC Single SC on order and will be mining for profit.  I have $3,900 invested.

I am basing my estimates on a hash rate of 250 TH/s.  I should be making roughly 90 BTC a month.  Assuming that the BTC / USD drops as expected I'll be earning about $900 USD per month.  However, I'll hold that until it comes back up to the $13/BTC over the next few months.  Initially my earnings will be more than 90 BTC as the Hash rate grows to 250 TH.  Then as it surpasses the 250 TH I'll make less.  By then I should have enough BTC to add one or two Single SC to my set up.

I figure once I pay off the units, everything else is gravy.  If I can reinvest into the rig, its all the better.  Something to consider with BFL, their equipment has a buy back program of 100%.  My two FPGA Singles are being bought back at 100%.  So as long as they have a 100% buy back, if I decide to get out of mining, I can sell my ASIC for their original value.  If I want to move them quickly I could still likely get 90% easy.

There is a lot of risk, with all of this.  You have to decide if you can stomach it.  There are already too many people that invested in the ASIC and are freaking out about delays.  No that things are up in the air for now and its all a risk.  If it pays off, well then there is money to be made.  I"m not talking about giant pots of gold, but there is some money to be made.  In the mean time there is money to be lost, if ASIC doesn't happen.

That said when the 250 TH/s second point is reached your current mining rig will generate about 1/10 of the BTC,  and given a possible drop in BTC conversion the value will drop more.  

My new rig will mine at 180 GH/s and I will make 90 BTC / month at 250 TH/s.  So if you mine with 4.5 GH/s at the same you can expect to make about 2.25 BTC per month with a single jalapeno.

I hope this helps.

[Phalanx]

According to your calculations (which I love the in-depth look btw) it will take around 6 months (all depending and variable) to make back the money I put down on it. Which isn't OVERLY bad but it isn't an incentive to jump on the wagon yet in my opinion as I can easily lose more than I am gaining, with expected little return if all goes well :3. Especially being a University student with lots of loans taken out and a bunch of debt.. I don't think I could comfortably say eh lets throw $160 at this (a good week of drinking!) and see if its legit.

Thanks again!
--Cheers-

[Pardo]

If you want to stick with mining you will have to upgrade, GPUs will soon become obsolete for this activity.
The good thing about these devices is they are very energy efficient (watch this ), so I'm pretty sure you will do better than what you are doing right now.
I'd personally try to afford at least a Single SC or a couple of jallies, but that's a personal decision.

[Shintax]

In my opinion, the jalapeno is just not worth it unless your trying to top off a Single with an extra 4.5gh. Just going off of the Bitcoin Mining Profitability Calculator, I could probably make $30 a month (if Im lucky) and I have solar panels on my roof to cover energy costs. So I think I am going to save the $650 for a Little Single and maybe down the line if everything is peachy purchase the Single. Just my newb 2 coins.

[RyNinDaCleM]

If you don't already have a standing pre-order, wait for them to come out. The first ones with orders in, will be the first shipped, and they will be the ones to make a killing on mining with ASIC. That $160 Jalapeno will be just like a $160 7770 now, making pennies/day and decreasing. You may never recoup initial investment.
I promise that in the first hundred pre-orders, there will be many, many, many Th/s added to the global hashrate making it difficult for the later orders to make money.

[Pardo]

If you don't already have a standing pre-order, wait for them to come out. The first ones with orders in, will be the first shipped, and they will be the ones to make a killing on mining with ASIC. That $160 Jalapeno will be just like a $160 7770 now, making pennies/day and decreasing. You may never recoup initial investment.
I promise that in the first hundred pre-orders, there will be many, many, many Th/s added to the global hashrate making it difficult for the later orders to make money.

I think you're wrong. The time to recoup the investment will be the same whether he goes for a jally, a little single or a single. The prices of the products are pretty much proportional to the Hashing power you get.

[RyNinDaCleM]

If you don't already have a standing pre-order, wait for them to come out. The first ones with orders in, will be the first shipped, and they will be the ones to make a killing on mining with ASIC. That $160 Jalapeno will be just like a $160 7770 now, making pennies/day and decreasing. You may never recoup initial investment.
I promise that in the first hundred pre-orders, there will be many, many, many Th/s added to the global hashrate making it difficult for the later orders to make money.

I think you're wrong. The time to recoup the investment will be the same whether he goes for a jally, a little single or a single. The prices of the products are pretty much proportional to the Hashing power you get.

I agree on the scale of investment compared to ROI, I'm meaning the amount of orders in front of an order placed today as opposed to 5/6 months ago when pre-orders were announced. The hashrate could double by the time his unit ships...
There are some very large miners that got on the list on day 1. If they get theirs, potentially doubling (or more) the difficulty by the time he gets his, he'll be in a bit of a bind.

[dgballer]

I wouldn't follow through with it!

[Lethn]

Honestly, if you want to do mining, go and get a pickaxe and head off to Africa or Brazil for a holiday lol you'll get a better return than frying your graphics cards Bitcoin mining all you need for that is good eyes and a basic knowledge of rocks and how minerals form.