Bitcoin mainstream adoption is coming - Adoption of technologies in the past

[Chris!]

Did you know that TV was invented in 1926? Probably not because it took 26 years until 25% of the population used one! What is the TV used for today? You can watch movies on them, watch live TV, stream videos over the Internet, you can even talk to people across the world on a TV if you wanted to. 

Our modern technology is so interchangeable now. In 2005 if you wanted to Google something you ran to your desktop in the office and typed in www.google.com in a browser. Ask someone to Google something for you today a they'll whip out a smart phone.

The Internet came out in 1991. There were earlier versions of intranets etc. but let's just say the Internet has been around for 25 years now. A nice easy number. A quarter of a century. In the beginning people didn't A. Understand what it was or who ran it. B. What it was useful for. Look where it I today!

Really think about this for a minute. How many devises can you access the Internet with in your house? Yes I'm talking about the blu-ray player, your iPhone, your smart TV, Any computer, tablet or anything else. I have 9 devices that have 'Google' on them in my house. Some I would probably never use, but still. 9. I'm 1 of 2 people living in my household. Let's say I get my broken laptop in the basement working and we have 5 devices each that are capable to Google something. If that's all you could do with with Internet it would be so useful but that's not all that you can do. You can read or learn about anything you want to. You can watch videos, you can talk to people who you normally never would would met. These are all because of innovations with the Internet. What did you do with the Internet when you first got it? Compare that to today and how could you live without it? That's what Bitcoin will be at some point.

You know that older person in your life who refuses to use a computer/email? It's fairly obvious they won't be using Bitcoins in the next 10 years, if ever. So when we're talking about bitcoin adoption we're talking about us now and future generations. Your parents may use them later on but they'll probably be one of the last people to adopt. Your children and grandchildren will grow up in a world where Bitcoins have always existed.

Looking at this chart I would say we're either early adopters or visionaries. Our parents will most likely be skeptics once Bitcoin is mainstream.



It's hard to say where exactly we are on the chart right now but we're still far from being mainstream. Mainstream to me is walking into a building saying "Do you accept Bitcoin?" and they say "No. Sorry." so you walk out because you only have your smartphone on you.

Bitcoin isn't going away anytime soon. We have more and more people catching on every day. It's harder to put a number on the users because it's decentralized but comparing it to the internet or email would make the most sense. How many people use email? How many email addresses are there? How many people use the Internet worldwide? On how many devices? 

I believe bitcoin can and will become mainstream. Looking at the Internet from 1991 to today it's increased exponentially. This can happen with Bitcoins as well but we need to also innovate to have it become mainstream. We're lucky in the sense that we already have a very well-established Internet to work with. Literally anyone could open a bitcoin wallet right now with absolutely no credentials. 

When Bitcoins will go mainstream is up to us. It's up to how many people you talk to about Bitcoin. If you know it's so great just talk about it. If your friend was still sending out yet another letter overseas for $5 and complaining it took 2 weeks to get to his friend would you not suggest email, texting, Skype or anything else that's practically instant and virtually free?! Of course you would! Bitcoins are a win-win for a lot of people for a lot of different situations. We just have to show people that Bitcoins make sense in their everyday lives. My wife gets a little frustrated with me because I suggest it way too often for her transactions.

I'm hoping for mainstream adoption in ~10 years. I think it's realistic. What do you all think?

[iluvpie60]

Did you know that TV was invented in 1926? Probably not because it took 26 years until 25% of the population used one! What is the TV used for today? You can watch movies on them, watch live TV, stream videos over the Internet, you can even talk to people across the world on a TV if you wanted to. 

Our modern technology is so interchangeable now. In 2005 if you wanted to Google something you ran to your desktop in the office and typed in www.google.com in a browser. Ask someone to Google something for you today a they'll whip out a smart phone.

The Internet came out in 1991. There were earlier versions of intranets etc. but let's just say the Internet has been around for 25 years now. A nice easy number. A quarter of a century. In the beginning people didn't A. Understand what it was or who ran it. B. What it was useful for. Look where it I today!

Really think about this for a minute. How many devises can you access the Internet with in your house? Yes I'm talking about the blu-ray player, your iPhone, your smart TV, Any computer, tablet or anything else. I have 9 devices that have 'Google' on them in my house. Some I would probably never use, but still. 9. I'm 1 of 2 people living in my household. Let's say I get my broken laptop in the basement working and we have 5 devices each that are capable to Google something. If that's all you could do with with Internet it would be so useful but that's not all that you can do. You can read or learn about anything you want to. You can watch videos, you can talk to people who you normally never would would met. These are all because of innovations with the Internet. What did you do with the Internet when you first got it? Compare that to today and how could you live without it? That's what Bitcoin will be at some point.

You know that older person in your life who refuses to use a computer/email? It's fairly obvious they won't be using Bitcoins in the next 10 years, if ever. So when we're talking about bitcoin adoption we're talking about us now and future generations. Your parents may use them later on but they'll probably be one of the last people to adopt. Your children and grandchildren will grow up in a world where Bitcoins have always existed.

Looking at this chart I would say we're either early adopters or visionaries. Our parents will most likely be skeptics once Bitcoin is mainstream.



It's hard to say where exactly we are on the chart right now but we're still far from being mainstream. Mainstream to me is walking into a building saying "Do you accept Bitcoin?" and they say "No. Sorry." so you walk out because you only have your smartphone on you.

Bitcoin isn't going away anytime soon. We have more and more people catching on every day. It's harder to put a number on the users because it's decentralized but comparing it to the internet or email would make the most sense. How many people use email? How many email addresses are there? How many people use the Internet worldwide? On how many devices? 

I believe bitcoin can and will become mainstream. Looking at the Internet from 1991 to today it's increased exponentially. This can happen with Bitcoins as well but we need to also innovate to have it become mainstream. We're lucky in the sense that we already have a very well-established Internet to work with. Literally anyone could open a bitcoin wallet right now with absolutely no credentials. 

When Bitcoins will go mainstream is up to us. It's up to how many people you talk to about Bitcoin. If you know it's so great just talk about it. If your friend was still sending out yet another letter overseas for $5 and complaining it took 2 weeks to get to his friend would you not suggest email, texting, Skype or anything else that's practically instant and virtually free?! Of course you would! Bitcoins are a win-win for a lot of people for a lot of different situations. We just have to show people that Bitcoins make sense in their everyday lives. My wife gets a little frustrated with me because I suggest it way too often for her transactions.

I'm hoping for mainstream adoption in ~10 years. I think it's realistic. What do you all think?

Facebook has a free send money service. Google Wallet is a free money service and can be used to shop online. PayPal is free(from what I see for average people doing).

Unless there is some huge security breach that wakes people up, why would any average person use it for anything? Just playing devils advocate

[SFR10]

I really liked what you wrote here and would also think that somewhere between the next 5-10 years would be the adoption rate for BTCitcoin in general although it could happen even earlier since from the past 4 months, it been all over the news multiple times and there's a hype going over it now and nowadays when I got out and talk about BTCitcoin, they say: "Yeah, I've heard it already" (mostly) and some turn out to be a user themselves and they tell me: "Cool, your using it too (with happy face)" so it won't take long before more people using it and it's not like in the past that it was a total stranger to people but now mostly among mid generations, at least they have heard it somehow and that's what it counts. Chances that from the old generation only a small percentage use it all the way until the end (until they pass away) is high but it's mid generation that make it to have the biggest impact and adoption so that would be enough IMO to make it be adopted in general.

[NorrisK]

I really liked what you wrote here and would also think that somewhere between the next 5-10 years would be the adoption rate for BTCitcoin in general although it could happen even earlier since from the past 4 months, it been all over the news multiple times and there's a hype going over it now and nowadays when I got out and talk about BTCitcoin, they say: "Yeah, I've heard it already" (mostly) and some turn out to be a user themselves and they tell me: "Cool, your using it too (with happy face)" so it won't take long before more people using it and it's not like in the past that it was a total stranger to people but now mostly among mid generations, at least they have heard it somehow and that's what it counts. Chances that from the old generation only a small percentage use it all the way until the end (until they pass away) is high but it's mid generation that make it to have the biggest impact and adoption so that would be enough IMO to make it be adopted in general.

I've got the same experiences recently. People I would never expect to be or get into bitcoin suddenly buying some and talkign about it. Even my grandparents are talking about it and asking how it works and what it does. They are not even negative about it, despite what they mainly hear in the news.

The adoptation really seems to be getting some ground now. It is just a matter of time and solving some issues that are currently plaguing bitcoin to get the ball rolling even more.

[Chris!]

Facebook has a free send money service. Google Wallet is a free money service and can be used to shop online. PayPal is free(from what I see for average people doing).

Unless there is some huge security breach that wakes people up, why would any average person use it for anything? Just playing devils advocate

I'd say mainly even just the idea of decentralized is great for a certain amount of people in the world. There are some things where Bitcoin probably wouldn't make sense but in a lot of cases now it's a smart way to exchange a little or a lot with little fees. Probably the best part of it is there is absolutely no way to reverse a transaction. I personally live that feature.

[Kakmakr]

Bitcoin is a technology running on these platforms already adopted. Other services like PayPal already paved the way for digital payment, so adoption of Bitcoin would not be a big issue. The internet and TV and some of these other technologies, were slowed down, because infrastructure and hardware were needed.

Bitcoin run on top of this media already established, and adoption should be a lot faster. The only thing that may hold it back a little, could be the Bitcoin ATM distribution.

[Chris!]

Bitcoin is a technology running on these platforms already adopted. Other services like PayPal already paved the way for digital payment, so adoption of Bitcoin would not be a big issue. The internet and TV and some of these other technologies, were slowed down, because infrastructure and hardware were needed.

Bitcoin run on top of this media already established, and adoption should be a lot faster. The only thing that may hold it back a little, could be the Bitcoin ATM distribution.

I couldn't have said it better myself! The entire bitcoin infrastructure is piggybacking off of already established technologies. You can use your smartphone to send bitcoin. If the smartphone, Internet and bitcoin were all invented at the same time we would have some huge hurdles to leap through. I completely agree that bitcoin adoption should be easier than the past. Thanks for the post!

[Lauda]

Facebook has a free send money service. Google Wallet is a free money service and can be used to shop online.

You seriously think that this is "free"? They sell your data and the people live in a delusion that everything is fine.

PayPal is free(from what I see for average people doing).

It is not.

Unless there is some huge security breach that wakes people up, why would any average person use it for anything?

How about taking away the power of the corrupted banks and people that are currently in control of a lot of things?

The only thing that may hold it back a little, could be the Bitcoin ATM distribution.

It is still not that easy to acquire Bitcoins and you lose some money in that process (e.g. ATMs tend to have very high fees).

[Lutzow]

The technology of the past may not always stay true especially nowadays where technology are advancing very fast. We could see some altcoin that will compete with bitcoin within the next few years or so.

[Kprawn]

The biggest stumbling block for Bitcoin adoption at the moment is developers fighting for power and governments not regulating the technology.

Everyone wants to wait to see what direction this technology are taking... The regulatory framework will also catch up, once they properly educated on

the threats and how to address them. This takes time, and the businesses cannot move on full investment, before this is done. There is no use investing

in a technology, if it will not scale or if it is banned.

[bargainbin]

Did you know that TV was invented in 1926? Probably not because it took 26 years until 25% of the population used one! What is the TV used for today? ...

Did you know that the first wheels were created to serve as potter's wheels around 3500 B.C. in Mesopotamia—300 years before someone figured out to use them for chariots? It took another 3,000 years before 25% of the population used one!
What is the wheel used for today?

"In 3,000 years, Bitcoin will be used by 25% of the population!" --OP

[southafricadude]

Did you know that TV was invented in 1926? Probably not because it took 26 years until 25% of the population used one! What is the TV used for today? ...

Did you know that the first wheels were created to serve as potter's wheels around 3500 B.C. in Mesopotamia—300 years before someone figured out to use them for chariots? It took another 3,000 years before 25% of the population used one!
What is the wheel used for today?

"In 3,000 years, Bitcoin will be used by 25% of the population!" --OP

Wow, I wonder what the price of bitcoin will be in 3000 years! lol

[LFC_Bitcoin]

All I ask is that bitcoin prices reach the moon before I'm too old to wipe my own ass. I'd like to enjoy the fruits of my labor.

[Chris!]

The technology of the past may not always stay true especially nowadays where technology are advancing very fast. We could see some altcoin that will compete with bitcoin within the next few years or so.

This is true. Who's to say someone doesn't come up with a better Bitcoin tomorrow? There are some issues with Bitcoin block sizes so maybe if people can't agree half will go to Bitcoin 2.0 and the other half will stay put.

Did you know that TV was invented in 1926? Probably not because it took 26 years until 25% of the population used one! What is the TV used for today? ...

Did you know that the first wheels were created to serve as potter's wheels around 3500 B.C. in Mesopotamia—300 years before someone figured out to use them for chariots? It took another 3,000 years before 25% of the population used one!
What is the wheel used for today?

"In 3,000 years, Bitcoin will be used by 25% of the population!" --OP

Did you notice how 3000 years ago it took 300 years for 25% of the population to catch on (assuming these numbers weren't taken out of thin air). We adopt new technology much faster nowadays.

All I ask is that bitcoin prices reach the moon before I'm too old to wipe my own ass. I'd like to enjoy the fruits of my labor.

Is that too much to ask?

No. No it's not.

[Chris!]

Are we mainstream yet?  We'll see how the block reward halving goes I suppose!

[Lauda]

Are we mainstream yet?  We'll see how the block reward halving goes I suppose!

No. We're not even close to being mainstream. It is still the early phase.

All I ask is that bitcoin prices reach the moon before I'm too old to wipe my own ass. I'd like to enjoy the fruits of my labor.

Don't be fueled by greed. Buying Bitcoin and posting on a forum is "labor"? Interesting.

[rienelber]

All I ask is that bitcoin prices reach the moon before I'm too old to wipe my own ass. I'd like to enjoy the fruits of my labor.

With so many new technologies coming to life, such as ETH, I don't think btc will be such a blast in the future.

Let's hope it does, but I don't feel confident about it anymore....

[bargainbin]

Facebook has a free send money service. Google Wallet is a free money service and can be used to shop online.

You seriously think that this is "free"? They sell your data and the people live in a delusion that everything is fine.

I'm yet to figure out what data of mine is being sold by Google that I should be real worried about. Care to share?

[Junko]

What I've always found interesting and amusing about technology adoption is what the pundits and so-called "experts" at the time said about the technology, especially what the skeptics, naysayers and doubters had to say about the new technology or innovation.

Many may have seen these before, but here are some funny quotes for example:


"[W]hen the Paris Exhibition closes, electric light will close with it and no more be heard of."
- Erasmus Wilson (1878) Professor at Oxford University

"This `telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a practical form of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."
- Western Union internal memo, 1878

"Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value."
- Editorial in the Boston Post (1865)

"While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially I consider it an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time dreaming."
- Lee DeForest, 1926 (American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube.)

"[Television] won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."
- Darryl F. Zanuck, head of 20th Century-Fox, 1946.

"What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?"
- The Quarterly Review, England (March 1825)

"Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia."
- Dr. Dionysus Lardner (1793-1859), Professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy at University College, London.

“Dear Mr. President: The canal system of this country is being threatened by a new form of transportation known as ‘railroads’ … As you may well know, Mr. President, ‘railroad’ carriages are pulled at the enormous speed of 15 miles per hour by ‘engines’ which, in addition to endangering life and limb of passengers, roar and snort their way through the countryside, setting fire to crops, scaring the livestock and frightening women and children. The Almighty certainly never intended that people should travel at such breakneck speed.”
— Martin Van Buren, Governor of New York, 1830(?).

"A new source of power... called gasoline has been produced by a Boston engineer. Instead of burning the fuel under a boiler, it is exploded inside the cylinder of an engine.
The dangers are obvious. Stores of gasoline in the hands of people interested primarily in profit would constitute a fire and explosive hazard of the first rank. Horseless carriages propelled by gasoline might attain speeds of 14 or even 20 miles per hour. The menace to our people of vehicles of this type hurtling through our streets and along our roads and poisoning the atmosphere would call for prompt legislative action even if the military and economic implications were not so overwhelming... [T]he cost of producing [gasoline] is far beyond the financial capacity of private industry... In addition the development of this new power may displace the use of horses, which would wreck our agriculture."
- U. S. Congressional Record, 1875.

"The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad."
- Advice from a president of the Michigan Savings Bank to Henry Ford's lawyer Horace Rackham. Rackham ignored the advice and invested $5000 in Ford stock, selling it later for $12.5 million.

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."
- Lord Kelvin (1824-1907), ca. 1895, British mathematician and physicist

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value."
- Marshal Ferdinand Foch, French military strategist, 1911. He was later a World War I commander.

"To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth--all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances."
- Lee deForest (1873-1961) (American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube.) Feb 25, 1957.

"There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home."
- Kenneth Olsen, president and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.

“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s."
- Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winner in Economics.

[Gohs]

Facebook has a free send money service. Google Wallet is a free money service and can be used to shop online. PayPal is free(from what I see for average people doing).

Unless there is some huge security breach that wakes people up, why would any average person use it for anything? Just playing devils advocate
[/quote]




I think the main reason bitcoins will become mainstream is because it is anonymous and you do not have to pay currency conversion fees like the other payment processors you mentioned.